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apacible
04-29-2019, 03:23 PM
Hi guys! As you know, the race to play singles in the Japan Women's Team has already started. Only the two women with the highest WR on January 1, 2020 will make it. Let this thread serve as both an update and discussion of the very tight race. I made a spreadsheet to keep track of the players' ranking points that will count towards their January 2020 WR.

Just a few notes:
1. This table only counts points from 2019 ITTF events and the 2018 WTTC as these will be the only events that will count towards the Jan 2020 Ranking.
2. Only the Top 8 Events of each player will count towards the ranking. They may play more than 8 events but the excess will not count.
3. There will be three (3) T2 Diamond events this year that will count as bonus WR points in addition to the points from the Top 8 events. Qualifying for these 3 events by playing well in the World Tour could make the difference between playing in the Olympics and watching it from the stands.

19066

usualsuspect
04-29-2019, 03:34 PM
Congrats to team Japan! They got silver in both WD and XD in Budapest, great job!

zeio
04-29-2019, 07:46 PM
Ishikawa losing to Doo Hoi Kem in the R16(woohoo!) opens up the field. Though she'll get massive points at World Cup this year.
Ito takes a massive hit after this WTTC.
Hirano has gotten so much value out of her win at ATTC 2017. Asian Cup and thus World Cup put her back in the game.
Hayata is already on her way to the Serbia Open, right after this WTTC while her teammates return to Japan.
Sato and Kato can't be ruled out yet, especially the latter. Their performance at the upcoming Hong Kong Open, China Open and Japan Open will have consequences.

apacible
04-30-2019, 12:53 PM
Ishikawa losing to Doo Hoi Kem in the R16(woohoo!) opens up the field. Though she'll get massive points at World Cup this year.
Ito takes a massive hit after this WTTC.
Hirano has gotten so much value out of her win at ATTC 2017. Asian Cup and thus World Cup put her back in the game.
Hayata is already on her way to the Serbia Open, right after this WTTC while her teammates return to Japan.
Sato and Kato can't be ruled out yet, especially the latter. Their performance at the upcoming Hong Kong Open, China Open and Japan Open will have consequences.

On point analysis, Zeio! Maybe I can expound on it a little.

1. Ishikawa- Her draws in this year's events won't be as favorable as last year since her ranking dropped to 6th. One possible reason for this is that she hasn't been as lucky in her first round draws. Last year, in 10 out of 11 World Tour events, she managed to avoid a Chinese player in the first round. It was only in the Austrian Open, the last world tour event of the year, where she drew He Zhuojia in the R32. (Compare this with Ito who drew a Chinese opponent in the first round 6 out of 11 times in the World Tour last year.) Losing in the first round really hurts a seeded player's ranking points. Still, I believe she is in the most favorable position to make the Olympic Team given that she still has the highest WR among Japanese women (and will likely draw Chinese players only at the QF) and has the World Cup event as a cushion should she not perform too well in the World Tour. However, her WR drop definitely makes it easier for her other Japanese teammates to challenge her spot for the Olympics


2. Ito- She's at the same footing as Ishikawa and will get just as favorable draws as her since Ito's only ranked one spot below at No. 7. The only difference is that she will not be playing in the World Cup, so she will have to make up ground by performing better in the World Tour


3. Hirano- Being WR 9 rather than WR 8 makes a huge difference with regard to her draw. Those seeded 9-16 in events will inevitable face one of the Chinese Big 5, or either Ishikawa, Ito or Cheng-I-Ching who are very tough opponents. She needs to step up her game to do better than R16 exits in the rest of the ITTF events this year. Fortunately, she has the opportunity during World Cup to gain big ranking points


4. Hayata- Her road to finish in the Top 2 in the JNT by January 2020 is the most difficult because of her seeding. Winning challenge events like the Serbia Open will not be enough to get her a singles spot since she'll only get 850 points for each event won, which is around the same amount of points one would get in a World Tour Platinum or World Tour if she loses in the R16. With all the other JNT women seeded in the Top 16, a R16 exit or better is pretty much guaranteed for them. Hayata will simply be matching but not overtaking her teammates by winning challenge events. She will inevitably need a few breakthrough performances in the World Tour to even come close to qualifying for the Olympic singles event and this would entail defeating CNT team members and her higher ranked teammates


5. Sato/Kato/Shibata- They're all joining challenge events as well, but similar to what I said about Hayata, challenge event wins will not be enough. Doing well in the World Tour and especially in the Platinum events is the key to getting that singles slot. Shibata and Sato are in more favorable positions to do well in the World tour since they are one of the top 16 seeds, but Kato's improvement this year may help offset this.

Because the race to the Olympic singles event is based on world ranking, it creates a conflict of interest between players. Naturally, you would also want your teammates to succeed and go deep in the tournaments, but that scenario would make it harder for you to overtake their ranking if you've already been knocked out of the same tournament. For example, Ishikawa's WR drop hurts the JNT as a whole, but opens up more opportunities for her other JNT teammates. The WTTC has just ended yet I'm already looking forward to the China, Hong Kong and Japan Opens to see how this all plays out. :)

Vlad Celler
04-30-2019, 01:32 PM
Hina Hayata will probably not even be able to enter the Top 16 by the end of this year ...
And not because the level of the game is low ....

In the rating for June she will have a deduction (-1350 , 5/2018)
Even if she wins in Serbia and Slovenia (there is no confirmation yet that she will play in Slovenia) - she will score 850 / Serbia + (850-563 / 8th result = + 287) / Slovenia ...
(-1350+287)=-213...
7818-213=7605
Of course, there is still China Open ...
But Hayata has a low current rating, and you need to play qualifications ....
three games ....
With such a composition of Chinese players, the probability of entering the main grid is close to zero .....
But even if Hayata passes the qualification, she will enter the main draw - she will receive only (675-600 / 8th result) = +75 points .....
To keep the result no lower than 7818, you must at least lose to R-16 ....
This is highly unlikely, unfortunately ....

But that's not all ....
When calculating the rating for July - she has a deduction (-1080/6-2018) ...
And in Hong Kong and Japan it is necessary to play the qualification ......
:(
And there is practically no reserve ...450+450...
Consequently, a loss of approximately (-600) ..... 7200....

pongfugrasshopper
04-30-2019, 03:48 PM
So is ranking point accumulation the only thing Japan is using to determine the 2 Olympic singles spots? If so, I think that's a very poor decision. The final position at a tournament depends on how lucky or unlucky your draw is. Take for example, Mima ito. She was unlucky and drew Sun Yingsha in R32 whereas Miu Hirano draws Mo Zhang in R32 at the WTTC. No offense to Zhang Mo, but there's a huge difference in playing level between Zhang Mo and Sun Yingsha. The ITTF ranking system is designed first for active participation (which is a good thing and I agree with it in this respect) and playing level as a secondary (thirdly?) consideration. So why base your Olympic singles selection on it when it has very little predictive ability of how well a player will do against foreign competition?

Vlad Celler
04-30-2019, 04:09 PM
pongfugrasshopper

Agreed...(there was already a mistake - they did not allow Hayata to fully participate in the WTTC)

(https://www.tabletennisdaily.com/forum/member.php?65756-pongfugrasshopper)

Takkyu_wa_inochi
04-30-2019, 04:30 PM
the "best" Hayata can hope is that Ishikawa "retires", finally listening to zeio...

or more realistically just earn that 3rd spot for the team competition...

Vlad Celler
04-30-2019, 04:38 PM
This is not possible through rating ...... Hina Hayata simply will not have time until January of next year even to enter Top-16 ITTF ....

Sali
04-30-2019, 07:40 PM
there is something about ranking which truly makes this decision quite stupid. For instance Koki Niwa after quite good WTTC (quaterfinal) lost his place from 8 to 12, while at the same time players who did not score a lot like Pitchford advanced. I understand that the points from last year march world tours lost their points, but Koki did not score anything last year march (qatar open lost in 1 round, german open lost in 2 round).
Of course what all of you wrote having high ranking makes you have lower ranked opponents if you are lucky.

Takkyu_wa_inochi
05-01-2019, 07:02 AM
pongfugrasshopper

Agreed...(there was already a mistake - they did not allow Hayata to fully participate in the WTTC)

(https://www.tabletennisdaily.com/forum/member.php?65756-pongfugrasshopper)

WTF Hayata was the last non-CNT player to beat the World Champion (in style !)... Kato went there , lost to LSW and although she fought and managed to get one game, she was never in a position to win or even to challenge seriously LSW

Vlad Celler
05-01-2019, 07:18 AM
Fully agree with you ...
Perhaps in the near future she will be the leader of the Japanese women's team .....
I can only wish her happiness and good luck ....

Sali
05-01-2019, 07:22 AM
WTF Hayata was the last non-CNT player to beat the World Champion (in style !)... Kato went there , lost to LSW and although she fought and managed to get one game, she was never in a position to win or even to challenge seriously LSW

Compare LSW from January and April - completely different Player. She admitted that she worked hard before wttc, Just watch her match from January and wttc. BTW I think it was Hayata who did not advance to Main draw few weeks ago in qatar loosing to not ranked Player, not even from China.

driversbeat
05-01-2019, 07:41 AM
Agreed. Not to take anything away from Hayata but I think there's something to be said about the 'safety' one feels whe Ito and Ishikawa meet unknown players compared to the others. Stability is a big factor in setting up a showdown with the chinese or going home early.

Vlad Celler
05-01-2019, 04:24 PM
Hina Hayata will probably not even be able to enter the Top 16 by the end of this year ...
And not because the level of the game is low ....

In the rating for June she will have a deduction (-1350 , 5/2018)
Even if she wins in Serbia and Slovenia (there is no confirmation yet that she will play in Slovenia) - she will score 850 / Serbia + (850-563 / 8th result = + 287) / Slovenia ...
(-1350+287)=-213...
7818-213=7605
Of course, there is still China Open ...
But Hayata has a low current rating, and you need to play qualifications ....
three games ....
With such a composition of Chinese players, the probability of entering the main grid is close to zero .....
But even if Hayata passes the qualification, she will enter the main draw - she will receive only (675-600 / 8th result) = +75 points .....
To keep the result no lower than 7818, you must at least lose to R-16 ....
This is highly unlikely, unfortunately ....

But that's not all ....
When calculating the rating for July - she has a deduction (-1080/6-2018) ...
And in Hong Kong and Japan it is necessary to play the qualification ......
:(
And there is practically no reserve ...450+450...
Consequently, a loss of approximately (-600) ..... 7200....

Hina Hayata withdrew her application for participation in Slovenia ......

usualsuspect
05-01-2019, 04:29 PM
Hayata has the greatest potential of beating Chinese players, because she uses tacky Chinese rubber on FH.
Chinese players lose to their teammates the most. I think Hayata is on to something. If she copies Chinese play style, she will have a greater chance of beating the Chinese.

Atas Newton
05-01-2019, 04:47 PM
Not sure if serious or sarcasm, but Ishikawa has a BS H3 on her forehand side. Also plays a very CNT influenced game. Her results, well we all know about her results against CNT. I believe CNT actually performs best against CNT-like opponents. Makes perfect sense, really.

usualsuspect
05-01-2019, 04:49 PM
Not sure if serious or sarcasm, but Ishikawa has a BS H3 on her forehand side. Also plays a very CNT influenced game. Her results, well we all know about her results against CNT. I believe CNT actually performs best against CNT-like opponents. Makes perfect sense, really.

Sarcasm, it was sarcasm...

Vlad Celler
05-01-2019, 05:01 PM
Hayata has the greatest potential of beating Chinese players, because she uses tacky Chinese rubber on FH.
Chinese players lose to their teammates the most. I think Hayata is on to something. If she copies Chinese play style, she will have a greater chance of beating the Chinese.

I do not know how correct this information is in the internet - LGL considers Hina Hayata the most promising player in the women's national team of Japan ....

pongfugrasshopper
05-01-2019, 07:26 PM
Compare LSW from January and April - completely different Player. She admitted that she worked hard before wttc, Just watch her match from January and wttc. BTW I think it was Hayata who did not advance to Main draw few weeks ago in qatar loosing to not ranked Player, not even from China.
To be fair, Hayata had just won the Oman Open with the Finals being on Sun. Mar 24. She then lost to qualifier Yoo Eunchong 3 days later Wed. Mar 27 in a seven game match at the Qatar Open so fatigue could have been a factor. Yoo Eunchong is not a bad player. She also lost in 7 games to Doo Hoi Kem at the WTTC.

Sali
05-01-2019, 07:51 PM
WTF Hayata was the last non-CNT player to beat the World Champion (in style !)... Kato went there , lost to LSW and although she fought and managed to get one game, she was never in a position to win or even to challenge seriously LSW


To be fair, Hayata had just won the Oman Open with the Finals being on Sun. Mar 24. She then lost to qualifier Yoo Eunchong 3 days later Wed. Mar 27 in a seven game match at the Qatar Open so fatigue could have been a factor. Yoo Eunchong is not a bad player. She also lost in 7 games to Doo Hoi Kem at the WTTC.
Yes but it was not the torunament where LSW took part. Of course she defeat some good players including Chen i ching and Hirano but they are not chinese players. There is very easy Way to get ticket to olympics, if she is Such good she Will win all platinum events in 2019.

zeio
05-05-2019, 05:41 PM
Hayata gets 850 pts for winning Serbia Open. 3750 still puts her far behind the leading pack, but will at least get her a better draw later on.

Vlad Celler
05-05-2019, 06:11 PM
Alas ... Bye (-500) to the rating ....
This month China Open will take place, but, unfortunately, the chances of getting into the main grid are very small ...
Then the rating of Hina Hayata in June will be 7318 ....

In June, Hina Hayata will have a deduction (-1080)
Participation - Hong Kong Open, Japan Open ...In both tournaments she must pass the qualification .....
And for example in Hong Kong Open announced 13 Chinese women, almost the full composition of the second and third team ....
Do not be surprised if in Hong Kong the semi-final will be completely Chinese ....

driversbeat
05-06-2019, 01:58 AM
Do players not get more points for beating higher ranked players? Or are points solely dependent on how far you progress in a tournament? The former seems to make more sense.

Vlad Celler
05-06-2019, 05:32 AM
The new ITTF rating system is based solely on how far the player has advanced in the tournament ...

zeio
05-06-2019, 08:34 AM
Do players not get more points for beating higher ranked players? Or are points solely dependent on how far you progress in a tournament? The former seems to make more sense.

Oh, you must've missed this.

https://www.tabletennisdaily.com/forum/showthread.php?16840-Shocking-Interview-with-a-Table-Tennis-Fan-on-World-Ranking-Reform&p=216910&viewfull=1#post216910

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YFyxbcaiSns

apacible
05-06-2019, 06:34 PM
Updated JNT Standings for 2020 After Serbia Open
19098

Hayata seems to be making a run for Challenge Series Queen of 2019, and it's not a bad strategy to get her ranking up. Sato was the Challenge Series Queen of 2017 and it helped her crack the Top 10 in 2017. In 2018, Shibata was the Queen of the Challenge Series, and it helped her crack the Top 15 this year. If Hayata keeps this up, she may be seeded for the last few tournaments of the year, which will greatly help her Olympic chances.

Vlad Celler
05-06-2019, 07:07 PM
Fully agree with you ..
Of course, you remember the interview with Hayata after her defeat Kato Miu ....After this defeat, she was unable to perform in WS at the WTTC ....Hayata in an interview directly said - the main problem for her this year is the low current rating ..
And to raise the rating because of the new ITTF ranking system is much more difficult than before ....
Plus, changes in the tactics of the Chinese team ....Take for example Hong Kong Open, which will soon be .....13 Chinese women, almost the entire second and third women's team ...
We wish good luck to Hina Hayata!

usualsuspect
05-06-2019, 09:43 PM
Fully agree with you ..
Of course, you remember the interview with Hayata after her defeat Kato Miu ....After this defeat, she was unable to perform in WS at the WTTC ....Hayata in an interview directly said - the main problem for her this year is the low current rating ..
And to raise the rating because of the new ITTF ranking system is much more difficult than before ....
Plus, changes in the tactics of the Chinese team ....Take for example Hong Kong Open, which will soon be .....13 Chinese women, almost the entire second and third women's team ...
We wish good luck to Hina Hayata!

Current system does require players to play more tournaments in order to keep their ranking. This could result in more injuries. However, if health isn't an issue, I feel like good players now have more opportunities to play against the Chinese. This is a good thing. The more often you play against them, the more likely you are to beat them (IMHO).

driversbeat
05-07-2019, 09:07 AM
I wonder why then that Ito, Hirano and Ishikawa choose to sit out of the easier Challenge Opens when their participation would easily knock Hayata out of the race to Tokyo. I mean yes preventing injuries and prep time is important but with the Olympics at stake and the girls still so young it would seem like logical step.

zeio
05-07-2019, 09:49 AM
Because of "best 8" limit.

With the new ranking, there's a fixed, hence predictable, amount of points available for players to accrue. Take Qatar Open for example, Ito, due to her high seeding, was set to finish QF(which she did) at a minimum. Because of the Platinum tier, her QF finish earned her more points than Hayata's wins at the two Challenge Plus stops.

In a nutshell, high risk, high reward. Ito, Hirano and Ishikawa have much more to gain from a good draw(bad draw for CNT) in a World Tour (Platinum) stop given their rankings.

Vlad Celler
05-07-2019, 10:07 AM
Do not forget about the deduction of old overdue points ... ....
For example, in Ito, when calculating the rating for June 2019, (-1800) + (- 1440) = (- 3240) will be deducted ...
There is, of course, a reserve ...And participation in China Platinum .....
Simply put, in order not to drop the rating for June, Ito needs ONLY a victory in China .... Otherwise, a fall ....

((and by the August rating Ito has a few big deductions ...)

zeio
05-07-2019, 10:23 AM
Do not forget about the deduction of old overdue points ... ....
For example, in Ito, when calculating the rating for June 2019, (-1800) + (- 1440) = (- 3240) will be deducted ...
There is, of course, a reserve ...And participation in China Platinum .....
Simply put, in order not to drop the rating for June, Ito needs ONLY a victory in China .... Otherwise, a fall ....

((and by the August rating Ito has a few big deductions ...)

Not too worried there. All players will see similar deductions as their points from 2018 expire and get replaced by those from the new point-table in 2019.

Vlad Celler
05-07-2019, 10:34 AM
Of course, all the players and their coaches are fully aware ....

zeio
05-07-2019, 11:23 AM
One big caution for the top players is the larger point gap. For WTP/WT, SF and QF are where the curve breaks away. Whoever reaches the SF and beyond will enjoy a small but substantial advantage down the road.


+--------+-------+-------+
| WTP/WT | 2019 | 2018 |
+--------+-------+-------+
| 1st | 100% | 100% |
| 2nd | 80% | 90% |
| SF | 65% | 80% |
| QF | 50% | 70% |
| R16 | 40% | 60% |
| R32 | 30% | 50% |
+--------+-------+-------+


+------+-------+-------+
| WTGF | 2019 | 2018 |
+------+-------+-------+
| 1st | 100% | 100% |
| 2nd | 80% | 90% |
| SF | 65% | 80% |
| QF | 50% | 70% |
| R16 | 40% | 60% |
+------+-------+-------+


+-----+-------+-------+
| WC | 2019 | 2018 |
+-----+-------+-------+
| 1st | 100% | 100% |
| 2nd | 75% | 90% |
| 3rd | 65% | 80% |
| 4th | 60% | 75% |
| QF | 50% | 70% |
| R16 | 40% | 60% |
+-----+-------+-------+


+------+-------+-------+
| WTTC | 2019 | 2018 |
+------+-------+-------+
| 1st | 100% | 100% |
| 2nd | 85% | 90% |
| SF | 65% | 80% |
| QF | 50% | 70% |
| R16 | 40% | 60% |
| R32 | 30% | 50% |
| R64 | 20% | 40% |
| R128 | 15% | 30% |
+------+-------+-------+

apacible
05-07-2019, 02:02 PM
One big caution for the top players is the larger point gap. For WTP/WT, SF and QF are where the curve breaks away. Whoever reaches the SF and beyond will enjoy a small but substantial advantage down the road.


I think the change in the ranking points table in 2019 was ITTF's way of addressing complaints that the new world ranking system rewarded participation too much. Now, there's a bigger gap between a Winner of an event and a R32 or R16 exit, so winning an event this year actually has a greater impact than last year since it creates a bigger gap between you and the other players who exited earlier. It's not enough to simply participate and get knocked out early because this year's ranking points for early round exits are minuscule compared to last year's.

Last year, winning a challenge series gave you 900 points, which is equivalent to a R32 exit in a World Tour event. In a platinum event, you would get 1125 points for a R32 exit. Those who exited early in Platinum World Tour events still got more points than the winner of a challenge series! This is a case where you get more points from simply participating than from winning.


This year, winning a challenge plus series gives you 1100 points, which is almost equivalent to a QF finish in a World Tour Platinum event (1125 points) and a SF finish in a regular World Tour event (1170 points). There is a greater premium now in winning challenge series events as compared to last year because you actually and deservedly get more points than a person who simply participates in a World Tour Platinum event and loses early.

As the year goes on, more and more of each player's "inflated ranking points" from simply "participating" and losing early in last year's events will expire. This will make the ranking points won by Challenge Series winners like Hayata and Kato more valuable towards the end of the year. Today, most players' rankings are being kept afloat by their R32 and R16 exit points from last year's world tour events, but once these expire, their world rankings will take a severe hit unless they can make deep runs in the World Tour (QF or better).

Drevior
05-07-2019, 02:08 PM
Thank you for sharing this information

Vlad Celler
05-07-2019, 02:22 PM
apacible (https://www.tabletennisdaily.com/forum/member.php?68630-apacible)
https://www.tabletennisdaily.com/forum/images/Styles/Blackend/statusicon/user-offline.png

......As the year goes on, more and more of each player's "inflated ranking points" from simply "participating" and losing early in last year's events will expire. This will make the ranking points won by Challenge Series winners like Hayata and Kato more valuable towards the end of the year. Today, most players' rankings are being kept afloat by their R32 and R16 exit points from last year's world tour events, but once these expire, their world rankings will take a severe hit unless they can make deep runs in the World Tour (QF or better).

Very accurately noted ....

Vlad Celler
05-11-2019, 12:58 PM
Something I just do not understand the policy of ITTF .....

Seamaster 2019 ITTF World Tour, Hang Seng Hong Kong Open

58
ODO Satsuki (http://results.ittf.link/index.php?option=com_fabrik&view=details&formid=99&Itemid=266&rowid=133405&resetfilters=1)
JPN
W






WL
-


No
2019-05-10 13:12


59
SOMA Yumeno (http://results.ittf.link/index.php?option=com_fabrik&view=details&formid=99&Itemid=266&rowid=134995&resetfilters=1)
JPN
W






WL
-


No
2019-05-10 13:12


60
NAKAMORI Honami (http://results.ittf.link/index.php?option=com_fabrik&view=details&formid=99&Itemid=266&rowid=133410&resetfilters=1)
JPN
W






WL
-


No
2019-05-10 13:12


61
KIHARA Miyuu (http://results.ittf.link/index.php?option=com_fabrik&view=details&formid=99&Itemid=266&rowid=131036&resetfilters=1)
JPN
W






WL
-


No
2019-05-10 13:13


62
NAGASAKI Miyu (http://results.ittf.link/index.php?option=com_fabrik&view=details&formid=99&Itemid=266&rowid=124591&resetfilters=1)
JPN
W






WL
-


No
2019-05-10 13:13


63
OJIO Haruna (http://results.ittf.link/index.php?option=com_fabrik&view=details&formid=99&Itemid=266&rowid=135179&resetfilters=1)
JPN
W






WL
-


No
2019-05-10 13:13


64
HASHIMOTO Honoka (http://results.ittf.link/index.php?option=com_fabrik&view=details&formid=99&Itemid=266&rowid=133000&resetfilters=1)
JPN
W






WL
-


No
2019-05-10 13:13


65
ANDO Minami (http://results.ittf.link/index.php?option=com_fabrik&view=details&formid=99&Itemid=266&rowid=123847&resetfilters=1)
JPN
W






-
-


Yes
2019-05-10 12:50


66
HAYATA Hina (http://results.ittf.link/index.php?option=com_fabrik&view=details&formid=99&Itemid=266&rowid=123672&resetfilters=1)
JPN
W






WL
-


No
2019-05-10 13:14


67
SHIOMI Maki (http://results.ittf.link/index.php?option=com_fabrik&view=details&formid=99&Itemid=266&rowid=132095&resetfilters=1)
JPN
W






WL
-


No
2019-05-10 13:14


68
MORI Sakura (http://results.ittf.link/index.php?option=com_fabrik&view=details&formid=99&Itemid=266&rowid=119542&resetfilters=1)
JPN
W






WL



Hina Hayata in the waiting list ... And most likely will not be allowed ...So try to score points, raise the rating .... Enchanted circle .....

apacible
05-18-2019, 05:25 PM
Updated JNT Standings for 2020 After Croatia Open
19145

The impact on the race to Tokyo is minimal in challenge series events unless you actually win the tournament because of the new WR points table. Let's see if Shibata or Sato have better luck in Thailand.

Vlad Celler
05-18-2019, 06:17 PM
I will root for Odo Satsuki ....:)

(Can you add old points deducted after a year)?

apacible
05-19-2019, 09:08 AM
I will root for Odo Satsuki ....:)

(Can you add old points deducted after a year)?

I bet you were also rooting for Kihara in the Croatia Open Final. Haha.

As for adding old points from last year, I purposely did not include 2018 events in computing ranking points since those points will all expire anyway by Jan. 2019, so they will be irrelevant in the Race to the 2020 Tokyo Olympics.

Maybe I will make a separate spreadsheet to compute predicted World Rankings that includes both old and new points, but the algorithm will be much more complicated given that point deductions will also have to be factored in. No promises, but I'll think about it towards the later part of the year if seeding for the last few events of 2019 becomes an important factor in predicting the Tokyo Olympic Race.

Vlad Celler
05-19-2019, 09:16 AM
You are right ... I really rooted for Kihara .....:)
Regarding the table you compiled ....First, many thanks ....I personally find it interesting .....I liked this topic in general .....:)

zeio
05-19-2019, 09:25 AM
The Diamond tier events will be vital for Ito. She's in the lead right now on the World Tour Standing, the top 15 of which will be invited.

At this rate, Ishikawa, Ito, and Hirano will go. Looking really grim for Hayata.

driversbeat
05-19-2019, 12:04 PM
The table is only relevant for singles tho, i.e. top 2. The third spot will go to a good team player (doubles player) and hirano doesn't have a convincing pairing with Ishikawa. Ito-hirano doubles disbanded a long time ago, too. So Hayata could slip in through the back door although that will mean 2 Olympic misses back to back for Hirano (P-card for rio 2016).

apacible
05-19-2019, 01:18 PM
The table is only relevant for singles tho, i.e. top 2. The third spot will go to a good team player (doubles player) and hirano doesn't have a convincing pairing with Ishikawa. Ito-hirano doubles disbanded a long time ago, too. So Hayata could slip in through the back door although that will mean 2 Olympic misses back to back for Hirano (P-card for rio 2016).

If Hayata doesn't make it to the singles competition based on World ranking, then she's probably hoping that Ishikawa and Ito take the 2 singles slots. If Hirano, Kato, or another JNT player manages to take the singles slot from Ito or Ishikawa, it's much tougher seeing JTTA selecting Hayata over Ishikawa or Ito as the 3rd player as compared to selecting Hayata over Hirano, Kato or the rest of the JNT players based on all their performances to date.

Of course, a lot can change until January 2019, and nobody knows how well all the JNT players will be performing 6 months from now, but if nothing major changes with regard to World Ranking and player performance in the next 6 months, this will be Hayata's next best scenario at a chance at an Olympic spot aside from a direct qualification through World Rankings.

Vlad Celler
05-19-2019, 01:19 PM
The Diamond tier events will be vital for Ito. She's in the lead right now on the World Tour Standing, the top 15 of which will be invited.

At this rate, Ishikawa, Ito, and Hirano will go. Looking really grim for Hayata.


JTTA recently published preliminary list of participants Korea Open and Australian Open.Hina Hayata is not on the lists ...
Perhaps later included in the team ....

And in addition ....Hong Kong Open-Hina Hayata is in the composition, but on the waiting list .....Perhaps she will remain on the waiting list ....However, both in Hong Kong and in Japan Open she needs to pass the qualification .....With the Chinese women already declared, the probability that Hina Hayata will qualify is close to zero, unfortunately .....

Vlad Celler
05-19-2019, 01:30 PM
My opinion is possibly wrong ....
Ito and Ishikawa may be able to stay in the TOP-10 ITTF rating for January 2020 ...At 8-9-10 place .....Hirano-perhaps 11-12 place ....
Hayata may take 15-20 place only a miracle .....Not because the level of the game is low ....She just does not have time ...Challenger tournaments will not save ...And in the rest she needs to play qualifications.In the presence of Chinese women, even the second or third national team to pass almost no chance .....

Sali
05-19-2019, 01:49 PM
My opinion is possibly wrong ....
Ito and Ishikawa may be able to stay in the TOP-10 ITTF rating for January 2020 ...At 8-9-10 place .....Hirano-perhaps 11-12 place ....
Hayata may take 15-20 place only a miracle .....Not because the level of the game is low ....She just does not have time ...Challenger tournaments will not save ...And in the rest she needs to play qualifications.In the presence of Chinese women, even the second or third national team to pass almost no chance .....

I do not understand something. If she is to be the Woman who win Gold medal next year in Tokio, then she shouldn't have any problems with wining china open now. Earning points in small tournaments where chinese do not play does not show her skills to beat them.

Vlad Celler
05-19-2019, 01:54 PM
Hayata has a chance at a medal in Tokyo, but only in the WD .....WS-excluded .....

Tempest/Comet
05-19-2019, 05:24 PM
Hayata has a chance at a medal in Tokyo, but only in the WD .....WS-excluded .....

So sorry, but there is no WD event in Olympics, just the first game in Team, for 1 point. Playing Ito-Hayata in Doubles slot automatically puts Ishikawa as player A/X, playing 2 singles, and Hayata will have to play a game in singles too. With China going full force in the Olympics, the chances of JNT scoring 3:0 (doubles +1, Ishikawa +1, Ito +1, is unrealistic, so Hayata will have to play the best China has to offer.
All 2018 points are moot as they won’t count in January 2020 for the decision, except the Team WTTC 2018, except for seeding purposes for the balance of the year. In this Ito is at a disadvantage because Ishikawa & Hirano still get to play the Singles World Cup. She’ll have to be very CONSISTENT for the rest of the upcoming tournaments, or hope Ishikawa blows a game (or 2) like in Qatar and the WTTC, or Hirano pulls a zombie in a major tournament as usual.
There is an extra predicament for JNT - who to assign to play and who gets benched in the Team World Cup in Nov at Tokyo, as those points will count for the January 2020 decision.
Miyasaki has already touched on the prospect of Hayata lately. While acknowledging her potential, specially when teamed with Ito, she is too far down near the bottom of the ladder, and would have to leapfrog closer to the top 5 to have any meaningful expectations.
Personally, I think with Ishikawa in there, Japan has a very good chance of beating all others to the Final, but also because she’s there, will not win gold, not against China. I think for Japan to have any real chance of taking the team medal, it is necessary to send in assassins, one time surprise strikers, much like Hirano in 2017, Ito in Sweden in 2018. If the chance is slim with Ishikawa’s phobia, then Japan has nothing to loose anyway by sending in Ito, Hirano and Hayata.

Vlad Celler
05-19-2019, 05:36 PM
Sorry ...:)
Very good analysis of the situation .... I agree with you ....

Tempest/Comet
05-19-2019, 05:44 PM
Hayata turns 19 in July. Is there any chance she pulls a Hamamoto for 2020 prospects away from JNT before then?

Vlad Celler
05-19-2019, 05:52 PM
Very interesting question!
I really do not know if there are any restrictions from the ITTF to participate in the Olympic Games in a case like Hamamoto-Austria?

NextLevel
05-19-2019, 05:55 PM
Hayata turns 19 in July. Is there any chance she pulls a Hamamoto for 2020 prospects away from JNT before then?

No. It is rare for first national team prospects to defect and Hayata is a first national team prospect. Yamamoto was too far down the list. Maybe if she was 30.

Vlad Celler
05-19-2019, 06:02 PM
Coaches of the national team of Japan have a difficult choice .....

It is very interesting whether Hina Hyata will be included in the participants of these two tournaments:
ITTF Women’s World Cup, Chengdu (CHN): 18-20 Oct
ITTF Team World Cup, Tokyo (JPN): 6-10 Nov

By this time, her ITTF rating is unlikely to be above 30 ....

Tempest/Comet
05-19-2019, 06:18 PM
Coaches of the national team of Japan have a difficult choice .....

It is very interesting whether Hina Hyata will be included in the participants of these two tournaments:
ITTF Women’s World Cup, Chengdu (CHN): 18-20 Oct
ITTF Team World Cup, Tokyo (JPN): 6-10 Nov

By this time, her ITTF rating is unlikely to be above 30 ....
Not for Oct at Chengdu, one must go through the Asian Cup and be in the top 6 to be invited. Because of this, not even Ito gets to play, very deserving and unfortunate indeed. This will change next year, as the top 2 ranked goes to Asian Cup. Hirano gets to go 3 times by strength of her win as Asian Champion in 2017, opportunities which she squandered.
As for Nov, I can see JNT goes by ranking. But even then, to be one of the 5 in team doesn't mean one gets to play. Look at Hirano getting benched the whole last Team World Cup, not even playing once.

Tempest/Comet
05-21-2019, 05:41 AM
China Op is vital for Ishikawa, she’s not in the top 15. Without a good showing, she may not be in the T2 Diamond tournament. As of now, Ito is at #10, Hirano at #15 with 4 others. China has 10 on the list.
(Ishikawa at #24 with Sato & Shibata)

Vlad Celler
05-21-2019, 08:06 AM
Interesting .... Where can I see the list of participants in the T2 Diamond tournament ?

Tempest/Comet
05-21-2019, 08:35 AM
Interesting .... Where can I see the list of participants in the T2 Diamond tournament ?
https://www.ittf.com/ittf-world-tour/2019-ittf-world-tour/world-tour-standings/

points award
https://ittf.cdnomega.com/eu/2018/12/2019_WT_Points_Allocation.pdf

cut off dates for the 3 Diamond Tier qualification are June3, July15, Oct14.

Vlad Celler
05-21-2019, 08:46 AM
Thank you very much !

zeio
05-21-2019, 09:22 AM
For Hayata to go, Ishikawa has to go.

The problem boils down to the doubles. Both Ishikawa and Hayata are left-handed, making it naturally difficult.

In case of Ishikawa/Ito/Hayata, they will essentially be limited to Ishikawa/Ito and Ito/Hayata for doubles. In either case, Ito will have to give up 1 singles. If they go with Ito/Hayata, Ishikawa will more than likely drop 2 points. Whatever the case and draw, the doubles will be a must-win for Japan. After that, Hayata and Ito must win their singles. You need a miracle for that to happen.

The roles of doubles and the 3rd player are just too important now.

https://www.tabletennisdaily.com/forum/showthread.php?17054-Breaking-News!-New-Team-Format-for-Tokyo-2020&p=220496&viewfull=1#post220496
New Olympic playing system:

Tokyo 2020 will be played with the new Olympic playing system. The playing order will be as following:

BC vs YZ (Doubles);
A vs X;
C vs Z;
A vs Y;
B vs X

There will be no break during the team match because all 5 matches will be fixed after the toss procedure. The team match consist of maximum 1 doubles and 4 singles matches.

Sali
05-21-2019, 11:11 AM
For Hayata to go, Ishikawa has to go.

The problem boils down to the doubles. Both Ishikawa and Hayata are left-handed, making it naturally difficult.

In case of Ishikawa/Ito/Hayata, they will essentially be limited to Ishikawa/Ito and Ito/Hayata for doubles. In either case, Ito will have to give up 1 singles. If they go with Ito/Hayata, Ishikawa will more than likely drop 2 points. Whatever the case and draw, the doubles will be a must-win for Japan. After that, Hayata and Ito must win their singles. You need a miracle for that to happen.

The roles of doubles and the 3rd player are just too important now.

https://www.tabletennisdaily.com/forum/showthread.php?17054-Breaking-News!-New-Team-Format-for-Tokyo-2020&p=220496&viewfull=1#post220496
New Olympic playing system:
I understand it is up to JNT coach to decide who from advanced players will play doubles and who 2 singles?
For now most likely Ito is the main weapon for china team, so she will play 2 singles, meaning no doubles. So we can have ishikawa/hirano in doubles. I also think they can take extra spare player for changes. So it is also possible that all these 4 players will go and depending on current form JNT coach will decide who is going to play in the final (if the advance).

apacible
05-21-2019, 12:08 PM
For Hayata to go, Ishikawa has to go.

The problem boils down to the doubles. Both Ishikawa and Hayata are left-handed, making it naturally difficult.

In case of Ishikawa/Ito/Hayata, they will essentially be limited to Ishikawa/Ito and Ito/Hayata for doubles. In either case, Ito will have to give up 1 singles. If they go with Ito/Hayata, Ishikawa will more than likely drop 2 points. Whatever the case and draw, the doubles will be a must-win for Japan. After that, Hayata and Ito must win their singles. You need a miracle for that to happen.

The roles of doubles and the 3rd player are just too important now.

https://www.tabletennisdaily.com/forum/showthread.php?17054-Breaking-News!-New-Team-Format-for-Tokyo-2020&p=220496&viewfull=1#post220496
New Olympic playing system:

I agree that the scenario of sending Ishikawa, Hayata, and Ito has its limitations, but I don't think the doubles problem is as bad as other potential combinations such as a lineup of Hirano, Ishikawa, and Ito.


The Ishikawa/Hirano doubles combination has had shaky results. Not only does this pairing lose in the middle rounds of the All Japan Championships, but it has also lost to the North Korean Pair of Jeon Jihee/Yang Haeun twice, and to the North Korean pair of Cha Hyo Sim/Kim Nam Hae. They may also have a hard time in the Olympics against Germany with Shan Xiaona/Petrissa Solja and the Hong Kong Team who is known to focus a lot on doubles.
If you go with Ishikawa/Ito, then Hirano has to play 2 singles matches, and her record against foreigners is shaky compared to Ito or Ishikawa's record. The Ishikawa/Ito doubles pairing also hasn't achieved the success that the Hayata/Ito pairing has achieved. Hayata/Ito hasn't lost to an non-Chinese pair since the Korean Open of 2017.
If you go with Hirano/Ito, you have the same problem as Hayata/Ishikawa where two players with the same playing hand are playing doubles together.



In essence, the Ishikawa, Hayata, Ito lineup is a long shot to defeat the Chinese Team, but honestly, any lineup that the JNT puts forward is bound to be a heavy underdog against China. At least this lineup in generally more stable against non-Chinese teams.

The other interesting prospect is Hayata, Ito, Hirano, but that might be too bold for the JTTA to consider sending to the Olympics. Hayata/Hirano has beaten 2 pairs with Chinese players in the past, and it also allows Ito, who had the strongest record against Chinese players last year, to play two singles matches. It's a hit-or-miss lineup, but it's very intriguing.

Mika Baba needs to use the World Team Cup this November to experiment with different lineups. In the World Team Cup, at least Japan will have 5 players to choose from, so they can send a different lineup per match to see which one could work the best for the Olympics. During the Olympics, you're pretty much stuck fielding the same 3 players each match. The 4th player (the alternate) can only play if any of the 3 players sustains a serious injury or becomes so ill that he cannot play, and a medical certificate is needed, so Japan can't fake it either. That's why Japan cannot mess up this selection.

Sali
05-21-2019, 12:35 PM
I agree that the scenario of sending Ishikawa, Hayata, and Ito has its limitations, but I don't think the doubles problem is as bad as other potential combinations such as a lineup of Hirano, Ishikawa, and Ito.


The Ishikawa/Hirano doubles combination has had shaky results. Not only does this pairing lose in the middle rounds of the All Japan Championships, but it has also lost to the North Korean Pair of Jeon Jihee/Yang Haeun twice, and to the North Korean pair of Cha Hyo Sim/Kim Nam Hae. They may also have a hard time in the Olympics against Germany with Shan Xiaona/Petrissa Solja and the Hong Kong Team who is known to focus a lot on doubles.
If you go with Ishikawa/Ito, then Hirano has to play 2 singles matches, and her record against foreigners is shaky compared to Ito or Ishikawa's record. The Ishikawa/Ito doubles pairing also hasn't achieved the success that the Hayata/Ito pairing has achieved. Hayata/Ito hasn't lost to an non-Chinese pair since the Korean Open of 2017.
If you go with Hirano/Ito, you have the same problem as Hayata/Ishikawa where two players with the same playing hand are playing doubles together.



In essence, the Ishikawa, Hayata, Ito lineup is a long shot to defeat the Chinese Team, but honestly, any lineup that the JNT puts forward is bound to be a heavy underdog against China. At least this lineup in generally more stable against non-Chinese teams.

The other interesting prospect is Hayata, Ito, Hirano, but that might be too bold for the JTTA to consider sending to the Olympics. Hayata/Hirano has beaten 2 pairs with Chinese players in the past, and it also allows Ito, who had the strongest record against Chinese players last year, to play two singles matches. It's a hit-or-miss lineup, but it's very intriguing.

Mika Baba needs to use the World Team Cup this November to experiment with different lineups. In the World Team Cup, at least Japan will have 5 players to choose from, so they can send a different lineup per match to see which one could work the best for the Olympics. During the Olympics, you're pretty much stuck fielding the same 3 players each match. The 4th player (the alternate) can only play if any of the 3 players sustains a serious injury or becomes so ill that he cannot play, and a medical certificate is needed, so Japan can't fake it either. That's why Japan cannot mess up this selection.

That means you cannot change players during whole tournament…? I think it does not have to be like this, you have some players in the basket and it is up to you (coach) to decide who is going to play doubles and singles for each match.
The other thing is as I remember ito/hirano played doubles together few years ago with good results.
The most important thing is who china is going to send. Now they have too many great players. Most of them besides Ding Ning were rarely lost to foreigners. Of course the easiest oponent for any of them is ishikawa and hirano. Ito is tougher but hayata we do not know, since she did not meet any of chinese since january win.
I think china is going to send Liu shiwen, Cheng meng, wang manyu.

apacible
05-21-2019, 01:47 PM
That means you cannot change players during whole tournament…? I think it does not have to be like this, you have some players in the basket and it is up to you (coach) to decide who is going to play doubles and singles for each match.
The other thing is as I remember ito/hirano played doubles together few years ago with good results.
The most important thing is who china is going to send. Now they have too many great players. Most of them besides Ding Ning were rarely lost to foreigners. Of course the easiest oponent for any of them is ishikawa and hirano. Ito is tougher but hayata we do not know, since she did not meet any of chinese since january win.
I think china is going to send Liu shiwen, Cheng meng, wang manyu.

Yes, it's a maximum of 3 players per team. You can change the lineups of who plays doubles and singles every match, but you're stuck with the same 3 players throughout the team tournament. For example, if Japan's initial lineup is Hirano, Ishikawa and Ito, and Ito for example is having a rough tournament, they can't replace Ito with Hayata for the next match and send another 3-player lineup. That's why the 3 player quota is very cruel on strong Table Tennis nations like China and Japan, who could probably field more than 3 players who deserve to be in the Olympics. China's dilemma of who to send to Tokyo is probably even more complex than Japan's dilemma because it has so many good players, but at least they can rest assured that whoever they send will still be the favorites to win Gold.

I also believe an Ito/Hirano doubles pairing has potential. Their last match was a close 3-2 loss to Sun Yingsha and Chen Xingtong in last year's Qatar Open. It would be wise for JTTA to send this pairing to World Tour events to test if this pairing is viable. Remember, Hirano and Ito have both developed and tweaked their playing styles since 2014 to 2015, so it's not automatic that this pair would make a good doubles team today just because they were a good pairing 4 years ago.

Sali
05-21-2019, 02:15 PM
Yes, it's a maximum of 3 players per team. You can change the lineups of who plays doubles and singles every match, but you're stuck with the same 3 players throughout the team tournament. For example, if Japan's initial lineup is Hirano, Ishikawa and Ito, and Ito for example is having a rough tournament, they can't replace Ito with Hayata for the next match and send another 3-player lineup. That's why the 3 player quota is very cruel on strong Table Tennis nations like China and Japan, who could probably field more than 3 players who deserve to be in the Olympics. China's dilemma of who to send to Tokyo is probably even more complex than Japan's dilemma because it has so many good players, but at least they can rest assured that whoever they send will still be the favorites to win Gold.

I also believe an Ito/Hirano doubles pairing has potential. Their last match was a close 3-2 loss to Sun Yingsha and Chen Xingtong in last year's Qatar Open. It would be wise for JTTA to send this pairing to World Tour events to test if this pairing is viable. Remember, Hirano and Ito have both developed and tweaked their playing styles since 2014 to 2015, so it's not automatic that this pair would make a good doubles team today just because they were a good pairing 4 years ago.
1. How about injuries - is there no rule to change player who is injured or ill before the match starts? in that case they could replace somebody
2. apart from that - they still can mix with 3 players they send, let's say ishikawa, ito and hayata. So for instance untill final ishikawa plays 2 singles and hayata with ito doubles. in the final, ishikawa play doubles with weaker player let's say hayata, so ito can play 2 singles.

For me whoever they send the probability of wining with china is close to 0 now, but we will see. Young players will definitely work hard to pick the form for the olympics.
Last time japan male team were quite close to beat china. This old system had some good strategic points. After JM defeated XX it was 1:1, if they just could win doubles, there was high probability in the last match JM defeat ZJK (who was not in best form that time)

apacible
05-21-2019, 03:36 PM
1. How about injuries - is there no rule to change player who is injured or ill before the match starts? in that case they could replace somebody
2. apart from that - they still can mix with 3 players they send, let's say ishikawa, ito and hayata. So for instance untill final ishikawa plays 2 singles and hayata with ito doubles. in the final, ishikawa play doubles with weaker player let's say hayata, so ito can play 2 singles.

For me whoever they send the probability of wining with china is close to 0 now, but we will see. Young players will definitely work hard to pick the form for the olympics.
Last time japan male team were quite close to beat china. This old system had some good strategic points. After JM defeated XX it was 1:1, if they just could win doubles, there was high probability in the last match JM defeat ZJK (who was not in best form that time)

Yes, they can replace a player who is injured or ill before the match starts, but the injury or illness must be real and legitimate. Let me illustrate:

Let's say for example, JTTA believes that the Ishikawa and Hayata/Ito lineup will be best against all Non-Chinese Teams because Ishikawa is consistent against Non-Chinese players and Hayata/Ito hasn't lost to a Non-Chinese doubles team since 2017. However, let's say for example that JTTA also believes that the Hirano, Hayata and Ito lineup will give them the best chance against Team China because of its youth, fearlessness and unpredictability. (Again, this is only an example. I, in no way, know what JTTA is truly thinking or how they assess their players.)

In theory, Japan could send Ishikawa, Hayata and Ito to play all matches until the Semifinals for the Olympics. Then, when Japan faces China in the Final, Ishikawa would get "injured" and claim that she cannot play anymore in the tournament in order for Hirano, the alternate, to replace her for the match against China, and give Japan a better chance of winning.

However, in reality, this is harder to pull off since Ishikawa would need to get a medical certificate from a doctor certifying that she cannot play. She can't just "claim injury" without proof since this is the Olympic rules for injury replacement. Of course, if Ishikawa wanted to take one for the team and purposely injure herself, so Hirano can play, then the injury replacement would be valid. :p Therefore, unless there really is a legitimate injury, Japan is stuck with the 3 players they choose, though they can obviously change who plays singles and doubles each match.

Actually, I won't be surprised if the scenario I described above happens in the Team World Cup this year. Japan may play Ishikawa, Ito and Hayata until the Semifinals, and bench Ishikawa for Hirano in the Final against China. It would be similar to when Japan changed their lineup in the WTTC 2018 to allow Hirano to play 2 singles over Ishikawa. Japan knows that they have nothing to lose anyway against China so it may decide to be bold and daring with their lineup choice during the Team World Cup where they have a pool of 5 players to choose from.

Vlad Celler
05-21-2019, 06:16 PM
Thank you very much ! Very interesting discussion!

NextLevel
05-21-2019, 06:29 PM
For Hayata to go, Ishikawa has to go.

The problem boils down to the doubles. Both Ishikawa and Hayata are left-handed, making it naturally difficult.

In case of Ishikawa/Ito/Hayata, they will essentially be limited to Ishikawa/Ito and Ito/Hayata for doubles. In either case, Ito will have to give up 1 singles. If they go with Ito/Hayata, Ishikawa will more than likely drop 2 points. Whatever the case and draw, the doubles will be a must-win for Japan. After that, Hayata and Ito must win their singles. You need a miracle for that to happen.

The roles of doubles and the 3rd player are just too important now.

https://www.tabletennisdaily.com/forum/showthread.php?17054-Breaking-News!-New-Team-Format-for-Tokyo-2020&p=220496&viewfull=1#post220496
New Olympic playing system:

This is not true. Ishikawa gets two singles but Ito and Hayata get one each as well as the doubles. If they can't win they can't win. Nothing to do with Ishikawa.

Sali
05-22-2019, 09:33 AM
Somehow I think now Japan did a good selection, while china with those marvelous maybe not.
At the end it does not matter if you are best in japan, it matters if you can beat foreig opponents. So for the youngsters most of you admit they have hard way to go, because they need to play qualification stage in tours and then (if the pass) probably they will meet chinese player very soon. While top rated players have easier way and meeting top chinese player early shouldn't happen, well:
1.Somehow top 3 japanese players advanced to top 10, how they did it? They just defeated most of foreign players, sometimes chinese. So if hayata, kato or kihara want to play JNT, first they have to show they can beat all foregin players in preliminary stage. Once they do it regularly, we can say they are simillar level to ishikawa/ito/hirano. But if they want to replace top 3 players, they need also to defeat chinese players. If not why we should change top 3 when silver medal is almost guaranted. So I am not afraid if hayata or kato to go olympics. But first they have to show they beat top players. Next week they will have good opportunity.
2. china now send a lot players for tours, many of them play qualification stage, so it is also very likely that players like Ishikawa meet ion first round chinese player not top rated, but it does not mean weaker.

Vlad Celler
05-22-2019, 10:55 AM
China Open, Hongkong Open (for Hina Hayata is still questionable participation), Japan Open ..... For Hina Hayata and Kato Miu - qualification ....In qualifying, the likelihood of meeting with Chinese women of the second or third team is almost inevitable ......
Let's wait for the results ... It’s not long to wait ...
Personally, in my opinion, perhaps in the WS semifinal in all these three rounds there will be only Chinese women .....:(

Takkyu_wa_inochi
05-22-2019, 11:15 AM
@Sali when did Ishikawa win against a Chinese player ?

zeio
05-22-2019, 01:57 PM
This is not true. Ishikawa gets two singles but Ito and Hayata get one each as well as the doubles. If they can't win they can't win. Nothing to do with Ishikawa.

https://i.imgur.com/bA0hYjs.jpg

Talk to me when you're sober.


If they go with Ito/Hayata, Ishikawa will more than likely drop 2 points. Whatever the case and draw, the doubles will be a must-win for Japan. After that, Hayata and Ito must win their singles. You need a miracle for that to happen.


JPN as ABC
JPN as XYZ


Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario 1
Scenario 2


Ito/Hayata
Ishikawa
Hayata
Ishikawa
Ito
Hayata/Ito
Ishikawa
Ito
Ishikawa
Hayata
Ito/Hayata
Ishikawa
Hayata
Ito
Ishikawa
Hayata/Ito
Ishikawa
Ito
Hayata
Ishikawa

NextLevel
05-22-2019, 02:37 PM
https://i.imgur.com/bA0hYjs.jpg

Talk to me when you're sober.




JPN as ABC
JPN as XYZ


Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario 1
Scenario 2


Ito/Hayata
Ishikawa
Hayata
Ishikawa
Ito
Hayata/Ito
Ishikawa
Ito
Ishikawa
Hayata
Ito/Hayata
Ishikawa
Hayata
Ito
Ishikawa
Hayata/Ito
Ishikawa
Ito
Hayata
Ishikawa



There is no guarantee that anyone will beat China. The point is that every player needs to take responsibility. Ito couldn't beat China's number 5. If they can't beat Ishikawa in a fair fight, let us just stop pretending they will beat China in a fair fight.

Sali
05-22-2019, 02:51 PM
@Sali when did Ishikawa win against a Chinese player ?
totaly 16 Times in her career out of 103.
Last year she defeat: Wen Jia, Sun Yingsha, Wu Yang and Chen Xintong.
I know that it is quite devastating for her, but first she is a good selection to reach final with the team. And secondly as Next Level wrote there is no chance for japan to beat china. Especially today when none japanese player can garantee to beat chinese.
Hirano had a good wins 2 years ago and from that time she never win with chinese.
Ito had good run last year and since then she was also beaten by chinese and others.
I remember the same situation was with Koki Niwa, they send him last olympics to play first match with Ma Long because he beat him many years ago. We are today and today I do not see any japanese player regularly beating top chinese.

Tempest/Comet
05-22-2019, 03:12 PM
Win or loose, we're dealing with best case scenario here, heading in...

Ishikawa/Ito/Hirano combo
Ito, who has the best current results against CNT should take the 2 singles spot. That leaves Ishikawa in Doubles with Hirano, not a viable combination.

Ishikawa/Ito/Hayata combo
Ito-Hayata in Doubles (that's why she's in) for 1 point, if. Should they win, all available scenarios require Ishikawa to hold back the determined Chinese counterpunch. She has to guard 2 pts, between the uncertainty of Hayata holding on against a CNT onslaught.

Ito/Hirano/Hayata combo
Hirano-Hayata on Doubles, Ito takes the 2 singles, there is still a proven fighting chance there. Not sure, but not suredeath either.

Ishikawa has to go.
(If she can win against CNT, she would have shown something in the last 30 continuous defeats)
But how ?

All eyes on China Op now. For the T2 bonus points.
Ishikawa at #24, is 25 pts behind Hirano, 75 pts behind Ito.
If Hirano gets blown out at R32, she still gets another 25, and Ishikawa will need a QF finish to overtake her, but there are 10 Chinese women in the melee.

zeio
05-22-2019, 04:23 PM
For Team World Cup 2018, Japan tried all scenarios except ABC 2.



Group
QF
SF
F


ABC 1
XYZ 2
ABC 1
XYZ 1
XYZ 2



https://www.ittf.com/tournament/2873/2018/ittf-team-world-cup/
https://i.imgur.com/dRLO7d4.png

China was well aware what Japan was up to. All they needed was take the doubles to seal the deal. That's too risky for Japan.

driversbeat
05-23-2019, 02:35 AM
What is this T2 diamond tournament and what implication does it have on the accumulation of ranking points?

Also there's a chance that Ito could be overtaken by Hirano in ranking, in which case the combination of Ito/Hirano/Ishikawa will definitely go.

zeio
05-23-2019, 07:40 AM
The 3 T2 Diamond events are crucial to Ito here.

The 3rd round finish at WTTC 2019 is a big blow to her, seeing she doesn't have the buffer of World Cup. To make up for that, she'll need to attend all 3 events, which would earn her a minimum of 1200 pts(R16 = 400 pts). Suppose Ishikawa and Hirano finish 3rd(1660 pts) and 4th(1530 pts) at World Cup, she'll need to make it deeper into the bracket to keep up, and even deeper if Ishikawa and Hirano also make it to the T2 Diamond events. A tough road ahead.

https://t2apac.com/t2-content/uploads/2019/01/T2-Diamond-2019-Overview-of-Tournament-Qualification-Comp-Format_FINAL.pdf
https://i.imgur.com/AxBa64z.png

apacible
05-26-2019, 02:46 PM
Standings after the Thailand Open
19176

Interesting finish to the Thailand Open. Choppers win both the men's and women's singles. Last time this happened was in the 2016 Croatia Open where Joo Sae-hyuk and Hitomi Sato also emerged victorious.

The Thailand Open win does give a little more life to Sato's 2020 Olympic hope. Her chances to make it are better than Shibata's since Sato played in the WTTC. However, this is only the a challenge series. What's more important are the results in the China, HK and Japan Open for these next 3 weeks, which are really going to move the needle in this race. The long wait is over, and I'm excited to see who seizes the opportunity.

Update for the China Open: the draws for the preliminary rounds are out.
Hayata likely has to go through China's Gu Yuting to make it to the main draw. This should be a good test for her, and we'll see if she can pass through it.

Takkyu_wa_inochi
05-26-2019, 03:48 PM
the matchpoint between SATO and SHIBATA is incredible

Vlad Celler
05-26-2019, 04:45 PM
Hayata has no luck ....:(If not yet allowed to play in Hong Kong ....:(
Kato will qualify without problems .....

Sali
05-26-2019, 06:08 PM
Hayata has no luck ....:(If not yet allowed to play in Hong Kong ....:(
Kato will qualify without problems .....
To qualify Kato Will have to defeat Hayata or gu yuting So not that easy

Vlad Celler
05-26-2019, 06:27 PM
To qualify Kato Will have to defeat Hayata or gu yuting So not that easy

Why?
Kato nr.64 in preliminary round ...
preliminary round 1 - bye...
preliminary round 2 - play with nr.61 Tailakova..
last, third preliminary round - with Balazova - Nakamori/Wang Yi-Ju....


Qualification - only three preliminary rounds .....
Hayata in the third preliminary round, meets with GU Yting ....

Sali
05-26-2019, 06:36 PM
Why?
Kato nr.64 in preliminary round ...
preliminary round 1 - bye...
preliminary round 2 - play with nr.61 Tailakova..
last, third preliminary round - with Balazova - Nakamori/Wang Yi-Ju....


Qualification - only three preliminary rounds .....
Hayata in the third preliminary round, meets with GU Yting ....

Yes you are right, anyway if she is to play olympics beating Gu Yuting is first step to prove it.

Vlad Celler
05-26-2019, 06:56 PM
Of course you are right! This is a very good test for Hayata !

Tempest/Comet
05-31-2019, 02:21 PM
With Ishikawa's loss to CXT, she doesn't have enough points for the top 15. Only Ito & Hirano are going to the first T2 Diamond event.

Vlad Celler
05-31-2019, 02:27 PM
Very sorry for Hina Hayata .....
The fall of the rating continues, by the end of the year there are practically no chances to enter the TOP-20 ....:(

apacible
05-31-2019, 04:16 PM
With Ishikawa's loss to CXT, she doesn't have enough points for the top 15. Only Ito & Hirano are going to the first T2 Diamond event.

Thank you for this update! Will be posting the full updates for the World Rankings and WT Standings for the T2 event when the China Open concludes. Qualifying for the T2 Diamond event is huge for Ito and Hirano in their Race to the Tokyo Olympics since the points earned in T2 events don't count towards the 8 maximum events quota in determining World Ranking. It helps them even more than Ishikawa didn't qualify and doesn't have a chance to gain extra world ranking points.

Ito probably needed this the most to make up for her non-participation in the World Cup. Even better for her is that she's likely going to be seeded in the Top 8 in the T2 Diamond event, so she'll avoid the top Chinese players in the first round who are currently dominating the top 8 of the world tour standings, which gives her a better chance of reaching the QF and earning more points. The only way she'll not be seeded in the Top 8 is if Ito loses against Ding Ning tomorrow, and both Cheng I-Ching and Chen Xingtong pull of some surprises and advance to the SF of the China Open.

zeio
05-31-2019, 05:20 PM
With Ishikawa's loss to CXT, she doesn't have enough points for the top 15. Only Ito & Hirano are going to the first T2 Diamond event.

https://i.imgur.com/xHKaDp7.jpg

zeio
05-31-2019, 05:26 PM
Very sorry for Hina Hayata .....
The fall of the rating continues, by the end of the year there are practically no chances to enter the TOP-20 ....:(

https://i.imgur.com/l5lcEWm.jpg

Vlad Celler
06-01-2019, 05:03 AM
Kong Kong Open...
Limit - 200
Draw for first Stage - 2/6...

I can not understand, will Hina Hayata play WS? She is still on the waiting list .....
Will she play XD with Harimoto?

Vlad Celler
06-02-2019, 04:26 PM
So, Hina Hayata is not allowed to WS .... She will only play in XD along with Harimoto .....
(The chances of raising the rating, already small, have become scanty ....)

driversbeat
06-02-2019, 04:32 PM
Hayata has yet to prove herself in singles anyway. She may still get the nod over Ishikawa if Hirano and Ito go, and that scenario seems likely now that Ishikawa is out of the first T2 diamond event.

Vlad Celler
06-02-2019, 04:55 PM
This month, Hayata is announced to Japan Open, in July to Korea Open. Perhaps, it will be announced to Australia Open ....
Given her low rating, only qualifications .....Unfortunately, the chances of winning the qualifiers are close to zero ....China...:(

apacible
06-02-2019, 06:20 PM
Standings after the China Open
19235

The China Open was a breakthrough for Ito as she progressed 2 rounds further than her other Japanese teammates and also qualified for the T2 Diamond event. While she's 3rd the the race currently, she only has 4 events while her other teammates have 5 or more, so she's in a good spot now.

Next up is the Hong Kong Open. Here are my thoughts:
Hayata's the only one from the above list not allowed to play in HK since the competition manager of this tournament seems to be very strict in enforcing the maximum 6 players per national association rule. It's a shame because the quality of opponents in this open isn't as high as those in other opens, so she would have had a better chance in this tournament as compared to other tournaments. Unless she makes major breakthroughs in the second half of this year, she's likely eyeing the 3rd Olympic spot for the team event.

One way she can get that spot is by doing well with Harimoto in Mixed Doubles. The man and woman of the XD team must each come from 3-player team of the JNT's Men's and Women's team respectively. That's why the Iskikawa-Yoshimura and Morizono-Ito pairs have been put on hold for the moment. JTTA probably doesn't see either Yoshimura or Morizono overtaking Harimoto, Niwa and Mizutani to make the Olympic team, so it has to form a mixed doubles team using one of either Harimoto, Niwa or Mizutani as the male player. The fact that JTTA is sending Hayata to partner with Harimoto in mixed doubles shows that it is seriously considering sending Hayata to the Olympics despite her lower WR. Now, it's up to her to show that her partnership with Harimoto can be more viable than an Ishikawa/Harimoto or Niwa/Ito pairing.

Vlad Celler
06-02-2019, 07:05 PM
Good analysis ....

BlueScr33n
06-03-2019, 01:42 AM
This month, Hayata is announced to Japan Open, in July to Korea Open. Perhaps, it will be announced to Australia Open ....
Given her low rating, only qualifications .....Unfortunately, the chances of winning the qualifiers are close to zero ....China...:(

If she can't beat the qualifiers then she doesn't deserve to go to the Olympics. Simple as that. She definitely has the ability to win the qualifiers though. But she seems to be lacking mental strength.

driversbeat
06-03-2019, 05:12 AM
Great analysis. Hayata getting the nod for doubles is indeed noteworthy. To me, the race to Tokyo is split into 2 categories right now. The race to Singles which realistically occurs between Mima-Miu-Ishikawa and the fight for the 3rd team spot.

Seeing how there are no other womens doubles combinations between Sato, Kato and Shibata with the 3 main players, it's almost safe to rule them out. The 3 Olympic berths will essentially be between Ishikawa, Hirano, Mima and Hayata.

In case Ishikawa or Hirano do not make it into Singles, their spot could be in jeopardy, too.

zeio
06-03-2019, 05:13 AM
If she can't beat the qualifiers then she doesn't deserve to go to the Olympics. Simple as that. She definitely has the ability to win the qualifiers though. But she seems to be lacking mental strength.

For the time being, I wouldn't say she lacks mental strength.

I've pointed this out multiple times. After years of watching, Ito, Hirano and Hayata tend to play better when behind. You often see them give up a run of points only to come from behind. All 3 of them have displayed that they aren't used to having a big lead, which I attribute to the lack of experience, especially Hayata. Overall, all 3 of them have shown the clutch at various times.

Ishikawa, OTOH, tends to break down and detonate when she couldn't keep up with the score. Not just against CNT, but also Feng Tianwei, Doo Hoi Kem and a few others.

Tempest/Comet
06-03-2019, 06:26 AM
The minimum points in the T2 Diamond event is 400, but losing in R16 at the World Cup will still get Ishikawa/Hirano 1020 pts. Ito will need to pull another 620 pts out of the balance of the year to make up for the short fall.
Until the number of Tournaments reached beyond 8, I think a meaningful competitive tally should count only the common denominator, in this case Ito’s total participation - 4. In this respect, based on their best 4, Ito is ahead at 5490, Ishikawa at 5020 & Hirano 4800.
Whether Hayata reaches WR top 20 before the end of year is only relevant for seeding, there is no way she can avoid the Chinese, and shouldn’t. She’s #9 currently in the JNT standings, it is this ranking (which Miyasaki was referring to post WTTC) that’s most important, as far as internal competition is concerned. Hayata simply is NOT in the running for the 2 Singles spot, not realistically.

Vlad Celler
06-03-2019, 08:43 AM
Compare:
Deductions of old bonuses when calculating ITTF rating:

Rating for july 2019
Ishikawa - 0(no bonuses 6/2018)
Ito - (-1800)
C.I.C. - (-1260)
Hirano - 0(no bonuses 6/2018)

Rating for august 2019:
Ishikawa - (-3600)
Ito - (-3150)
C.I.C. - (-1575)
Hirano - (-1575)

Rating for septemder 2019:
Ishikawa - (-1800)
Ito - 0(no bonuses 8/2018)
C.I.C. - (-945)
Hirano - (-2520)

It is theoretically possible that by September Ito in the ranking will be lower than the C.I.C .....

Tempest/Comet
06-03-2019, 10:02 AM
I stopped looking at the current rankings, which reflects only 2018’s results, all of which will be zero out by end of 2019, and is therefore meaningless.
What I’m trying to say is, the reported rankings for the rest of this year DO NOT MATTER at all, except for seeding purposes. But the Chinese got all 4 Quadrants covered now, so no one will get into a CNT free zone anyway.
Both Ito & Ishikawa will loose big pts for their wins at Germany, Japan, Czech, Bulgaria, Sweden, unless they can duplicate the results this year. Less so for Hirano, because of her mediocre showings, so less ups & downs.
BUT NONE OF THESE RANKINGS MATTER. It’s what they’re going to score THIS year ending in December 2019 that counts, as indicates by apacible’s table.

(Somewhat off topic, so sorry....There is something that Tempest and I have been arguing, she thinks China now have absolute control and can decide who Japan gets to send to the Olympics. She thinks China will send Ishikawa & Hirano through to guarantee a Chinese win. We do not agree, but the only card I get to play is ‘sportmanship’, against her ‘national honour at stake’ Darn!)

zeio
06-03-2019, 10:22 AM
Wait a second. You're telling me Tempest/Comet has DID?

Tempest/Comet
06-03-2019, 10:36 AM
Wait a second. You're telling me Tempest/Comet has DID?
LOL! No disorder as far as she’s concern, she seems to win, all the time.

Vlad Celler
06-03-2019, 12:21 PM
The ITTF rating from the beginning of 2020 will look like this(for WS):

The first five or six positions - Chinese women with points amounts of 16000-14000
All other positions with a maximum score of 12,000 will already be a good result ....Including top Japanese girls ....
China will not let them rise ....:(

Tempest/Comet
06-03-2019, 12:53 PM
....Including top Japanese girls ....China will not let them rise ....:(
¡No pasarán! :p

driversbeat
06-09-2019, 09:40 AM
So Hirano has finished a rung behind Mima at both tournaments so far. If Mima gains a lead on Hirano after the scores are updated, it won't be a big lead given her lack of participation in the world cup. Only thing that is certain is that Ishikawa is being left in the dust.

zeio
06-09-2019, 11:22 AM
The table has turned here. Ito is now in the lead. Making it to the final in Hong Kong Open(1440 pts) already makes up for her 3rd round exit in WTTC 2019(900 pts).

Ishikawa's 4th round exit in WTTC 2019(1200 pts) followed by R16 finish in China Open(900 pts) and now R16 finish again in Hong Kong Open (720 pts) have sent her to the back of the pack.

Not to mention Ito and Hirano qualifying for the 1st Diamond event. In Ito's case especially, on top of her points for Hong Kong Open, simply playing in one T2(400 pts minimum) already gives her the rough equivalent of a 2nd place finish in World Cup.

Vlad Celler
06-09-2019, 11:34 AM
Unfortunately, Ito has noticeable deductions for old bonuses for 2018 ahead ....
(-1800) - 6/2018
(-3150=-1575*2) - 7/2018
By the way, Ishikawa has upcoming deductions even more ....
(-3600=-1800*2) - 7/2018
(-1800) - 8/2018

The probability that C.I.C. will be in the ITTF rating in August or September higher than Ishikawa and Ito, is very high ...
(She simply has less deductions than Ishikawa and Ito .....)

Tempest/Comet
06-09-2019, 11:56 AM
Best 5 so far in 2019, (disregarding everything in the ITTF soon to expired past rankings).
This is what will count for Jan 2020
Ito 2000+1125+900+1465+1440 = 6930
Hirano 1500+900+1500+900+1170 = 5970
Ishikawa 1750+1170+1200+900+720 = 5740

Plus minimum of 400 pts for Ito & Hirano in T2.
Only 8 more WT(P) & WT events left.

Vlad Celler
06-09-2019, 12:08 PM
Very clear and convincing ....:)

igorponger
06-09-2019, 12:40 PM
His Majesty, reigning Japan Emperor (Hirohito Junior) is alone to decide. He is a big admirer for Hina Hayata, we know.

Vlad Celler
06-09-2019, 03:04 PM
Wang Yidi has only seven entries in the ITTF rating ...6300+1800=8100...
If in Japan she reaches at least the semi-final - plus another 1015 ....This is the top 20 ....
(but Yidi is not claimed to participate in Korea and Australia ...)

Sali
06-10-2019, 11:31 AM
In japan open first time hayata has quite easy opponents to make it the main draw.

Vlad Celler
06-10-2019, 04:11 PM
This time she was lucky ...(how not to jinx it ...)
:(But in order to keep the rating, she needs to reach at least the quarter finals .....

apacible
06-11-2019, 12:59 PM
Standings After the Hong Kong Open
19284

The biggest takeaway from the HK Open is Ito and Hirano extending their leads over Ishikawa. At the start of the year, I thought that Ishikawa slipping out of the top 2 in Japan was very unlikely. It's funny how much things change after 6 months.

Should Ishikawa be concerned? Yes, she's not playing the first T2 Diamond tournament, so that definitely hurts her chances.
Can she still catch up? Definitely. However, her advantage of playing in the World Cup seems to have been offset by Ito's performance (and Ishikawa's less-than-stellar performance) in China and HK plus Ito's participation in T2.
Ishikawa's advantage over Hirano, which is seeding, is more sustainable as on a theoretical level. Ishikawa should get better draws in the next several tournaments, which could pave the way for her to finish one round better than Hirano for the next several tournaments, but Hirano seems to be playing better these days, so Ishikawa cannot simply rely on Hirano to perform worse than her.

This situation can only motivate Ishikawa to work harder to become a better player, which will help Team Japan in the long run. I look forward to see if she's up to the task. :)

driversbeat
06-16-2019, 09:25 AM
What are the odds of Sato knocking Ishikawa out of the top 3?

zeio
06-16-2019, 09:30 AM
Ishikawa will have to go bust in the World Cup and ideally the Korean Open and Australian Open for that to happen.

Even if that happens, Sato will likely not be chosen for the 3rd spot as a chopper just doesn't pair well with an attacker.

Vlad Celler
06-16-2019, 10:33 AM
.....Even if that happens, Sato will likely not be chosen for the 3rd spot as a chopper just doesn't pair well with an attacker...

Yes..

Tempest/Comet
06-16-2019, 12:06 PM
After Japan Open, with 6 common events so far, points that matter for January 2020 decision:
Ito 2000+1125+900+1465+1440+675=7605
Hirano 1500+900+1500+900+1170+1465=7435
Ishikawa 1750+1170+1200+900+720+900=6640

Ito & Hirano can add a minimun of 400 each to the above for playing in the first T2 Diamond in July.

There are 3 Platinum & 4 WT events left for the year.

Cutoff for the 2nd T2 Bonus event is July 15, which will include results from Korea Op and Australian Op.
After Japan Op, Ito has 450, Hirano 363 and Ishikawa 141 qualifying pts heading towards the deadline.

zeio
06-16-2019, 01:09 PM
https://i.imgur.com/gPPywaS.jpg

https://youtu.be/atepTC4Evyw?start=143

driversbeat
06-16-2019, 01:20 PM
I wonder if the Chinese have an internal metric for selection as well. In their case it would be something along the lines of number of tournaments won, not how far one progresses in a tournament. I think that alone shows the difference between the two teams.

Vlad Celler
06-16-2019, 01:29 PM
After Japan Open, with 6 common events so far, points that matter for January 2020 decision:
Ito 2000+1125+900+1465+1440+675=7605
Hirano 1500+900+1500+900+1170+1465=7435
Ishikawa 1750+1170+1200+900+720+900=6640

Ito & Hirano can add a minimun of 400 each to the above for playing in the first T2 Diamond in July.

There are 3 Platinum & 4 WT events left for the year.

Cutoff for the 2nd T2 Bonus event is July 15, which will include results from Korea Op and Australian Op.
After Japan Op, Ito has 450, Hirano 363 and Ishikawa 141 qualifying pts heading towards the deadline.


High probability that C.I.C. in the ITTF rating for August or September will be higher than that of Japanese girls ...
Of course, by 2020 all old bonuses will be reset to zero ....But current ITTF ratings affect seeding ....
Although in principle for Ito, for example, there is no difference in sowing - nr.7 or nr.8 ....A guaranteed meeting no later than the third round with top Chinese women ....
Most likely, in the near future, China will occupy the first six places (WS) in the ITTF rating (due to the S.Y.S.) ....

Jacky Kwok
06-16-2019, 01:54 PM
I think everyone agrees that Sato played really well in the recent 2 tournaments. Unfortunately her chance to play 2020 Olympic is very low as a chopper. Besides the top 3, her chance is even lower than Hayata, Kato or Shibata.

NextLevel
06-16-2019, 02:11 PM
I wonder if the Chinese have an internal metric for selection as well. In their case it would be something along the lines of number of tournaments won, not how far one progresses in a tournament. I think that alone shows the difference between the two teams.


They have internal rankings based on a variety of criteria (CSL, Tour,) and coaches discretion as well. I don't think only winning tournaments counts. But maybe someone with more insight might provide details.

Jacky Kwok
06-16-2019, 02:23 PM
Is there any chance for Ito to join the women’s world cup?

NextLevel
06-16-2019, 02:27 PM
Is there any chance for Ito to join the women’s world cup?

Not really unless she was nominated as the wild card if that still exists. IF someone drops out, they usually go to the next eligible player in the continental cup.

Vlad Celler
06-16-2019, 02:54 PM
Curious .... JTTA can not make a replacement?

NextLevel
06-16-2019, 03:11 PM
Curious .... JTTA can not make a replacement?

No. There is a whole selection process described in their qualification document based on placement in continental cups and ranking. You can't get in without playing the continental cup.

Usually when China replaces, it is because they are pulling out either the World Champ or the top performer in the Asian Cup and the next guy/lady did well enough to be the replacement. So if LSW doesn't go this year, then Chen Meng is going. Or if ZYL doesn't go, CM goes. But right now LSW and ZYL are going.

On the men's side they are locked into ML and FZD unless they lobby ITTF to use wildcard on one of their players If either pulls out.

Vlad Celler
06-16-2019, 03:21 PM
Thank you. Sadly .....
(But suppose Hirano or Ishikawa is seriously injured, ill .....Is there really no replacement mechanism in this case?)

NextLevel
06-16-2019, 03:33 PM
Thank you. Sadly .....
(But suppose Hirano or Ishikawa is seriously injured, ill .....Is there really no replacement mechanism in this case?)

The next player in the Continental cups takes over. Unless ITTF nominates a replacement in the wild card spot, there is no replacement mechanism in the sense that the spot belongs to Japan (it doesn't).

Vlad Celler
06-16-2019, 03:43 PM
Thank..

NextLevel
06-16-2019, 03:55 PM
https://ittf.cdnomega.com/eu/2019/02/MWC_WWC_QUAL_SYSTEM.pdf

Takkyu_wa_inochi
06-16-2019, 04:11 PM
@Zeio

ISHIKAWA has got a crush on MA Long , maybe that's why she studied Mandarin so hard, but is it reciprocal ?

Vlad Celler
06-16-2019, 04:12 PM
Thank...:(

NextLevel
06-16-2019, 05:06 PM
Thank...:(


It seems I could be wrong. I just re-read the document and saw line 3.1 (substitutions). But someone has to explain how it might work. If it does work the way I don't think it does, then they may allow Ito to replace anyone Japan removes because her ranking is high enough. But I don't think it is allowed.

Also, there is 3.6, so if Japan tries to replace after the entry close date, ITTF can nominate anyone they want including Ito. So this might be the route.

Vlad Celler
06-16-2019, 05:15 PM
It is theoretically possible that in a month or two Ito (or Hirano) in the ITTF rating will be higher than Ishikawa ...(Ishikawa has more deductions than Ito and Hirano, and reserves, on the contrary, are less ....)

Tempest/Comet
06-16-2019, 06:08 PM
Section 3.5 would still prevail, ie the next in line of the Asian Cup will get the spot, not necessarily Japan.
3.6 is an backdoor/escape clause after everything is ‘locked up’ giving ITTF some wriggle room. But to apply it without sufficient grounds negates the whole structure/process of going through the different continental cups, with it’s association quota.
World Cup is an INVITATION, Japan doesn’t get to send anyone they want/wish, nor do they ‘own’ that spot even when one of their members is selected. Not to mention the possibility of a scandal developing, as whoever gets bumped off will have her supporters too. The hue & cry so ensued is not something JTTA would contemplate, not wisely anyway.
Besides, no matter who we favour, thinks should go, Ishikawa & Hirano won their place according to rules & performance at the time. For fairness sake, it should be allowed to run its course.

edit: case in point, in 2016 both DN & LSW withdrew claiming sickness. China didn’t get to send any replacements, even though there were many CNT women who were highly qualified, but not selected for Rio Olympics that would have given anything to go.

Vlad Celler
06-16-2019, 06:14 PM
Thank !

zeio
06-17-2019, 09:05 AM
@Zeio

ISHIKAWA has got a crush on MA Long , maybe that's why she studied Mandarin so hard, but is it reciprocal ?

A picture speaks a thousand words...
https://i.imgur.com/fOdYDGt.jpg

Tempest/Comet
06-17-2019, 10:20 AM
Ishikawa might be able to play in the first T2 Diamond event....
IF CNT withdraws 2(or more) of it's qualified players. Ishikawa was hung up with a group, but the tie-breaker is WR, which she's on top.
First T2 event is July18-21 in Malaysia.
The China National TT Championship (全国乒乓球锦标赛) runs July25-Aug2 in Tianjin China, only 3 days later.
The T2 points are meaningless to the Chinese, the placing in the National Championship is critical on many fronts. The old and the feeble might just take a breather to prepare for the BIG deal.

Vlad Celler
06-17-2019, 10:25 AM
Curious...

Jacky Kwok
06-17-2019, 01:42 PM
I don’t think the China National TT Championship (全国乒乓球锦标赛) is crucial to the major players. Last year, a lot of the big names like ML, FZD, XX, LSW did not join.

CoolPug7
06-17-2019, 03:17 PM
I don’t think the China National TT Championship (全国乒乓球锦标赛) is crucial to the major players. Last year, a lot of the big names like ML, FZD, XX, LSW did not join.

I agree, I think it is just a way for the CNT to recruit new promising players.

Tempest/Comet
06-17-2019, 04:37 PM
For the second T2 Diamond event.
After Japan Op, Ishikawa has 141WT ranking points, at number #16, just below Sato’s 166 pts at #15 the cutoff. Ito is at #5 with 450, Hirano at #7 with 363. Ahead of Ishikawa are WMY, CM, LSW, SYS, Ito, WYD, Hirano, DN, ZYL, CXT, CIC, GYT, HZJ, SATO. All have more pts than her, with only Korea & Australia left before the next cutoff on July15.
She can get 31 pts more if she reaches QF in Korea, and another 100 pts if she gets into QF in Australia.
Immediate threat is Doo, 17 pts behind, and Polcanova 27 pts.

apacible
06-18-2019, 12:48 PM
Standings after the Japan Open:
19341

My breakdown of the race after the Japan Open:

Hirano got a good draw in Japan, and it’s a huge break for her to reach the SF of Platinum event. It’s as if the table tennis Gods really do not want Ishikawa to play the singles event in Tokyo.:p If the trend continues till the end of the year, it seems that Hirano and Ito are taking the singles slots. That leaves the 3rd team spot up for grabs, with Hayata and Ishikawa being the most likely candidates due to them being left-handed. Hayata shined in the mixed doubles event and gave Chen Meng a good fight in singles, and thus, improving her chances to be selected for Tokyo.

Traditionally, one of the methods used by JTTA in selecting players to represent Japan in a major competition is look at one’s performance in the past year and see how many Top 30 players in the WR one has beaten. This is one of the criteria JTTA considered in choosing Hirano and Sato over players like Hayata for the 2019 WTTC. As for 2019, here are the stats:

Hayata 6 Wins: Liu Shiwen, Shibata, Szocs, Hashimoto, Cheng I-Ching, Hirano
Ishikawa 5 Wins: Feng Tianwei, Suh Hyowon, Doo Hoi Kem, Chen Szu-Yu, Zhang Mo
Ito 5 Wins: Doo Hoi Kem, Feng Tianwei, Ding Ning, Polconova, Hirano
Hirano 5 Wins: Sawettabut, Chen Szu-Yu, Jeon Jihee, Feng Tianwei, Sato

This, along with the 3rd player’s doubles synergy with other Japanese Olympians, will be the main factor in determining her slot. I was a bit surprised to see Japan declare the Hirano/Shibata doubles pairing for the Korean and Australian Open. I would think the JTTA would want to give Hayata/Hirano a test or to give Hirano/Ishikawa time to work things out, as these seem to be more plausible doubles combinations for the team event.

The performance of Japan’s mixed doubles pairings for the next two tournaments is also worth monitoring since the potential success of the Ishikawa/Yoshimura or Ito/Mizutani pairings could pose some threat to Hayata’s Olympic chances.

apacible
06-18-2019, 12:55 PM
Ishikawa might be able to play in the first T2 Diamond event....
IF CNT withdraws 2(or more) of it's qualified players. Ishikawa was hung up with a group, but the tie-breaker is WR, which she's on top.
First T2 event is July18-21 in Malaysia.
The China National TT Championship (全国乒乓球锦标赛) runs July25-Aug2 in Tianjin China, only 3 days later.
The T2 points are meaningless to the Chinese, the placing in the National Championship is critical on many fronts. The old and the feeble might just take a breather to prepare for the BIG deal.

Based on the video posted by T2 Diamond for the Top 16 Women Qualified for the first T2 Diamond tournament, it seems only one more withdrawal is needed for Ishikawa to play. https://twitter.com/t2_diamond/status/1140858134501580800

The 16th placer based on the standings was Sofia Polconova, but it seems that Szocs, the 17th placer, got her spot. Therefore, only one more withdrawal is needed for 18th placer Ishikawa to play.

zeio
06-18-2019, 01:30 PM
The JTTA don't usually count the JNT players for the Top 30 beaten so Ishikawa is in the lead and Hayata is dead last.

For the T2 Diamond, Polcanova (https://ittf.cdnomega.com/eu/2019/01/2019-WT-Standings-WS-CHN.pdf) is not playing?

zeio
06-18-2019, 02:12 PM
Is it possible they're inviting Doo over Polcanova because of the 2nd bullet point? It could be interpreted such that only 1 of them could qualify.

https://t2apac.com/t2-content/uploads/2019/01/T2-Diamond-2019-Overview-of-Tournament-Qualification-Comp-Format_FINAL.pdf

The top-15 male and female players from the 2019 ITTF World Tour Standings, at the indicated qualification cut-off date, will qualify to compete in the relevant T2DIAMOND 2019 event.
• If a player qualifies but declines to compete in a T2DIAMOND2019 event; the player with the next-highest World Tour Standing Points will become eligible to compete.
• If two or more players have equal World Tour Standing Points, the player(s)with the higher ITTF World Ranking as at the qualification cut-off date will qualify in precedence to the other player(s). If two or more players have equal ITTF World Rankings, the player(s) with the higher ITTF World Ranking for the month immediately preceding that of the qualification cut-off date will qualify in precedence to the other player(s).

apacible
06-18-2019, 02:13 PM
The JTTA don't usually count the JNT players for the Top 30 beaten so Ishikawa is in the lead and Hayata is dead last.

For the T2 Diamond, Polcanova (https://ittf.cdnomega.com/eu/2019/01/2019-WT-Standings-WS-CHN.pdf) is not playing?

Oh, my mistake then. Thank you, Zeio! I just google translated the criteria "世界ランキング30 位以内(日本人選手、同一選手含む)に勝利した回数" and it translated to "Number of wins in the top 30 world rankings (including Japanese players, same players)" so I thought wins against teammates in the Top 30 would count.

As for Polcanova, I'm not entirely sure why she's not in the video of qualifiers since her WT standing points after the China open is higher than Szocs, who was the 17th placer. I also can't think of a reason why Polcanova would withdraw given the bonus WR points offered by the event.

Even T2 Diamond's FB page advertised Szocs to be part of the event. https://www.facebook.com/T2Diamond/photos/a.1434004413308964/2867636073279117/?type=3&theater

"Season 1 women's champion Bernadette Szocs automatically qualifies for T2 Diamond Malaysia. Will she be able to defend her crown in Season 2?"

I do hope that Szocs qualified because Polcanova is unable to make it and wasn't given an automatic qualification over Polcanova just because she was the T2 champion in Season 1, since an automatic qualification for former champions was never mentioned in the guidelines, and this would be unfair to Polcanova, who earned her spot through her performance on the World Tour.

apacible
06-18-2019, 02:21 PM
Is it possible they're inviting Doo over Polcanova because of the 2nd bullet point? It could be interpreted such that only 1 of them could qualify.

https://t2apac.com/t2-content/uploads/2019/01/T2-Diamond-2019-Overview-of-Tournament-Qualification-Comp-Format_FINAL.pdf

It's possible. If we're only counting the top 15, then yes, Polcanova wouldn't qualify as she's at 16th place because of the tiebreaker Doo Hoi Kem has over Polcanova. Technically, the extra slot should go to a player from the host country who must be inside the Top 50 WR. However, Malaysia doesn't have a Top 50 player. The question now is, does the 16th slot automatically go the the player next in ranking, which is Polcanova, or does T2 have the discretion to select any player as a "wild card" to fill that slot?

There's a gray area here because for the Men, all top 16 players from the WT standings made the cut-off since there's no host exemption applicable as Malaysia has no player in the top 50 of the Men's WR.

Vlad Celler
06-18-2019, 02:38 PM
How long will the bonuses received in the T2 Diamond be valid?

NextLevel
06-18-2019, 02:40 PM
How long will the bonuses received in the T2 Diamond be valid?

Probably a year thing. Ratings are usually valid for a year.

zeio
06-18-2019, 03:21 PM
Oh, my mistake then. Thank you, Zeio! I just google translated the criteria "世界ランキング30 位以内(日本人選手、同一選手含む)に勝利した回数" and it translated to "Number of wins in the top 30 world rankings (including Japanese players, same players)" so I thought wins against teammates in the Top 30 would count.

As for Polcanova, I'm not entirely sure why she's not in the video of qualifiers since her WT standing points after the China open is higher than Szocs, who was the 17th placer. I also can't think of a reason why Polcanova would withdraw given the bonus WR points offered by the event.

Even T2 Diamond's FB page advertised Szocs to be part of the event. https://www.facebook.com/T2Diamond/photos/a.1434004413308964/2867636073279117/?type=3&theater

"Season 1 women's champion Bernadette Szocs automatically qualifies for T2 Diamond Malaysia. Will she be able to defend her crown in Season 2?"

I do hope that Szocs qualified because Polcanova is unable to make it and wasn't given an automatic qualification over Polcanova just because she was the T2 champion in Season 1, since an automatic qualification for former champions was never mentioned in the guidelines, and this would be unfair to Polcanova, who earned her spot through her performance on the World Tour.
Oh, that criterion is for the 2 singles spots, for the case where 3 or more players have the same ranking points for the 1st spot or 2 or more players qualify for the 2nd spot, in which case they'd consider, in descending order, the WTTC, WC, WTGF, World Tour Platinum won in 2019, the number of wins over top 30 players(JNT players and same player included), and playoffs among the said players.

For the 3rd spot, there is only 1 criterion - 1 player that's good in singles and doubles.

Exactly, the T2 is like free points and free prize money for Polcanova. Even more, she's been fantastic recently.

apacible
06-18-2019, 03:56 PM
Oh, that criterion is for the 2 singles spots, for the case where 3 or more players have the same ranking points for the 1st spot or 2 or more players qualify for the 2nd spot, in which case they'd consider, in descending order, the WTTC, WC, WTGF, World Tour Platinum won in 2019, the number of wins over top 30 players(JNT players and same player included), and playoffs among the said players.

For the 3rd spot, there is only 1 criterion - 1 player that's good in singles and doubles.

Exactly, the T2 is like free points and free prize money for Polcanova. Even more, she's been fantastic recently.

Thanks again, Zeio, for the correction! If the only criterion is that the player be good in both singles and doubles, it should bode better for Hayata. She's unlikely to be able to face and beat many Top 30 players if she starts from the qualifications in the World Tour. Also, Hayata's results in the past 2 years as a doubles partner of Ito or Hirano has been better than that of Ishikawa when she was paired with Ito or Hirano.

zeio
06-18-2019, 03:57 PM
It's possible. If we're only counting the top 15, then yes, Polcanova wouldn't qualify as she's at 16th place because of the tiebreaker Doo Hoi Kem has over Polcanova. Technically, the extra slot should go to a player from the host country who must be inside the Top 50 WR. However, Malaysia doesn't have a Top 50 player. The question now is, does the 16th slot automatically go the the player next in ranking, which is Polcanova, or does T2 have the discretion to select any player as a "wild card" to fill that slot?

There's a gray area here because for the Men, all top 16 players from the WT standings made the cut-off since there's no host exemption applicable as Malaysia has no player in the top 50 of the Men's WR.

Hmm, I never expected an ass pull for table tennis. Automatic qualification for the defending T2 Champion is so Trumpish.

zeio
06-18-2019, 04:15 PM
Thanks again, Zeio, for the correction! If the only criterion is that the player be good in both singles and doubles, it should bode better for Hayata. She's unlikely to be able to face and beat many Top 30 players if she starts from the qualifications in the World Tour. Also, Hayata's results in the past 2 years as a doubles partner of Ito or Hirano has been better than that of Ishikawa when she was paired with Ito or Hirano.

Yea, Hayata is comparable to XX. A master key for doubles, yet vulnerable for singles. I feel bad (http://mytabletennis.net/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=77500&PID=958124&title=2016-ittf-world-tour-swedish-open#958124) for Ishikawa.

Tempest/Comet
06-18-2019, 04:28 PM
>top-15 players from the relevant 2019 ITTF World Tour Standings; and
>one Host Exemption selected by the relevant Host City Partner.

Host Exemption:
• Each Host City Partner will select one (1) male and one (1) female player to participate in the relevant T2DIAMOND 2019 event as Host Exemptions.
• Each Host Exemption must be ranked in the top-50 of the ITTF World Rankings at the time of selection, and must not have qualified to compete in the relevant T2DIAMOND 2019 event from the World Tour Standings.

1) it’s still only top 15 players,
2) Makes no mention that this selected ‘Host Exemption’ needs to be from the Host City(a Malaysian in this case), just that they have the privilege to select one, from the top 50 who hasn’t qualified. Read ‘Host Exemption’ as wild card. Szocs was the 2018 champion from the host city, but didn't qualify, so they picked her.

At least that’s how I read into the document.
(Or as Tempest says ‘Host Exemption selected’ explicitly exempts the selected from being OF the host.)

Vlad Celler
06-19-2019, 06:34 AM
http://www.jtta.or.jp/tournament/tabid/125/rptid/519/Default.aspx

The composition of the women's team at the T2 Diamond July 19-21:

Ito, Hirano, Ishikawa (!?), Kato (!?)

zeio
06-19-2019, 08:22 AM
>top-15 players from the relevant 2019 ITTF World Tour Standings; and
>one Host Exemption selected by the relevant Host City Partner.

Host Exemption:
• Each Host City Partner will select one (1) male and one (1) female player to participate in the relevant T2DIAMOND 2019 event as Host Exemptions.
• Each Host Exemption must be ranked in the top-50 of the ITTF World Rankings at the time of selection, and must not have qualified to compete in the relevant T2DIAMOND 2019 event from the World Tour Standings.

1) it’s still only top 15 players,
2) Makes no mention that this selected ‘Host Exemption’ needs to be from the Host City(a Malaysian in this case), just that they have the privilege to select one, from the top 50 who hasn’t qualified. Read ‘Host Exemption’ as wild card. Szocs was the 2018 champion from the host city, but didn't qualify, so they picked her.

At least that’s how I read into the document.
(Or as Tempest says ‘Host Exemption selected’ explicitly exempts the selected from being OF the host.)

In that case, Ovtcharov should've been left out if we go by the book. But like apacible said, automatic qualification for the defending T2 Champion(Boll and Szocs, respectively), or wild card for that matter, is never mentioned in any official documents and then that Facebook post on Jun 11 pulled a deus ex machina and voila, Szocs is in. As if they had an "oh, shit" moment.

zeio
06-19-2019, 08:58 AM
http://www.jtta.or.jp/tournament/tabid/125/rptid/519/Default.aspx

The composition of the women's team at the T2 Diamond July 19-21:

Ito, Hirano, Ishikawa (!?), Kato (!?)

CNT has gotta give these 2 a push...

https://www.weibo.com/6063330150/HzCqikknQ?from=page_1006066063330150_profile&wvr=6&mod=weibotime

Vlad Celler
06-19-2019, 09:04 AM
thank....
(but I did not understand why Ishikawa is mentioned there ....:( Is this the first Diamond?)

zeio
06-19-2019, 09:13 AM
China is officially interfering with Japan's internal selection for Tokyo 2020.

https://img.kyodonews.net/english/public/images/posts/e491d22e5977a05aea02729c0d6af480/cropped_image_l.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/1RYjuWW.jpg

Tempest/Comet
06-19-2019, 09:34 AM
thank....
(but I did not understand why Ishikawa is mentioned there ....:( Is this the first Diamond?)
China withdrew some players, so Ishikawa and Kato is now going to the first T2 Diamond.

Takkyu_wa_inochi
06-19-2019, 09:49 AM
By the way, what is the situation for the JNT Men's team.
#1 spot seems guaranteed for HARIMOTO

NIWA went to last 8 in WTTC earning him a lot of points, but he didn't do well in the last ITTF Opens.

Is there a chance for MIZUTANI to make it to #2 spot still ?

driversbeat
06-19-2019, 09:58 AM
LOL. But now that Ishikawa and Kato are going, Ito's first round exit in the Japan Open lost her what could have been a big lead in the points race. It's still to early to say anything yet. The singles spots are still very much up for grabs.

zeio
06-19-2019, 10:01 AM
Just took a quick look. Could be wrong. They're neck and neck if you count 4 events only.

Niwa
2018/4 2018 WTTC 750pts
2019/3 Qatar Opn 900
2019/4 2019 WTTC 1500
2019/4 Asian Cup 1170
2019/5 China Opn 900
Subtotal 5220

Mizutani
2018/4 2018 WTTC 1500pts
2019/3 Qatar Opn 1125
2019/4 2019 WTTC 900
2019/5 China Opn 900
Subtotal 4425

Vlad Celler
06-19-2019, 10:15 AM
China withdrew some players, so Ishikawa and Kato is now going to the first T2 Diamond.

Which Chinese players (women) will not play at T2 Diamond in Malaysia?

Vlad Celler
06-19-2019, 10:20 AM
LOL. But now that Ishikawa and Kato are going, Ito's first round exit in the Japan Open lost her what could have been a big lead in the points race. It's still to early to say anything yet. The singles spots are still very much up for grabs.

My opinion-tournaments Diamond T2 will not help the Japanese ...China will not allow them to go further than the quarter finals in these tournaments ....
By January 2020, Ishikawa, Ito, Hirano will be in the ITTF rating at 7-10 places at best ....And with a noticeable gap in points compared with the first six Chinese women .....

Tempest/Comet
06-19-2019, 10:32 AM
My opinion-tournaments Diamond T2 will not help the Japanese ...China will not allow them to go further than the quarter finals in these tournaments ....
By January 2020, Ishikawa, Ito, Hirano will be in the ITTF rating at 7-10 places at best ....And with a noticeable gap in points compared with the first six Chinese women .....
This thread is not concerned with how JNT compares with CNT (or any other NT) in WR, or how well any other non-Japanese players are doing, but Japan's INTERNAL competition to get to the 2 top spots for the singles via WR points. ;-)
(BTW, looks like CNT is only sending 3 out of the 6 qualified men to the first T2 :ML, XX, FZD.)

zeio
06-19-2019, 10:56 AM
To nullify the effect of Ishikawa's entry, Ito will have to:

reach the final(800 pts) if Ishikawa loses in R16(400 pts);
win the T2(1000 pts) if Ishikawa reaches QF(500 pts) or finishes 4th(600 pts).

Ishikawa will be back in the race if Ito finishes lower than her. Must be fuming right now.

Vlad Celler
06-19-2019, 11:18 AM
Do you mean the race for the position in the ITTF rating by January 2020?
Apologies for offtopic ...
In the ITTF rating for July, Ishikawa still holds the 7th place ...But here in the ranking for August ....

In July, two tournaments - Korea and Australia ....Where is the entire Chinese women's top declared ....
Minus 3600 points will be deducted from Ishikawa (7/2018)...Given that the reserves she has are very modest, and are unlikely to be replenished in Korea and Australia ....
Ito has a similar situation, although the upcoming deduction is still less - 3150 ...

Additional points on Diamond in Malaysia Ishikawa just will not help .....(Is that Chinese women in general will not ...)

Tempest/Comet
06-19-2019, 11:46 AM
Additional points on Diamond in Malaysia Ishikawa just will not help .....(Is that Chinese women in general will not ...)
Additional pts in Diamond Malaya WILL HELP Ishikawa to beat Ito for Japan Women's Team Olympic race in January 2020. :mad:

Vlad Celler
06-19-2019, 12:10 PM
I fully agree with this .....:(
And of course China is interested in the fact that this is exactly what happened ....:mad:

zeio
06-19-2019, 01:03 PM
Do you mean the race for the position in the ITTF rating by January 2020?
Apologies for offtopic ...
In the ITTF rating for July, Ishikawa still holds the 7th place ...But here in the ranking for August ....

In July, two tournaments - Korea and Australia ....Where is the entire Chinese women's top declared ....
Minus 3600 points will be deducted from Ishikawa (7/2018)...Given that the reserves she has are very modest, and are unlikely to be replenished in Korea and Australia ....
Ito has a similar situation, although the upcoming deduction is still less - 3150 ...

Additional points on Diamond in Malaysia Ishikawa just will not help .....(Is that Chinese women in general will not ...)

The point reserve doesn't matter. Seeding is hardly affected. Ishikawa and Hirano have a huge World Cup buffer that Ito don't enjoy. The T2 is now serving as Ishikawa's lifeline. These bonus points could potentially end Ito's run.

NextLevel
06-19-2019, 01:09 PM
This thread is not concerned with how JNT compares with CNT (or any other NT) in WR, or how well any other non-Japanese players are doing, but Japan's INTERNAL competition to get to the 2 top spots for the singles via WR points. ;-)
(BTW, looks like CNT is only sending 3 out of the 6 qualified men to the first T2 :ML, XX, FZD.)

I guess that closes the discussion of who are the candidates for men's singles on the men's side. Who did the CNT send on the women's side? That also says a lot.

Vlad Celler
06-19-2019, 01:31 PM
The point reserve doesn't matter. Seeding is hardly affected. Ishikawa and Hirano have a huge World Cup buffer that Ito don't enjoy. The T2 is now serving as Ishikawa's lifeline. These bonus points could potentially end Ito's run.

I agree with you ... Diamond as a lifeline for Ishikawa .....And this is very good for China ....
However, the World Cup results will also be updated? How else Ishikawa and Hirano will play ...

zeio
06-19-2019, 02:44 PM
I agree with you ... Diamond as a lifeline for Ishikawa .....And this is very good for China ....
However, the World Cup results will also be updated? How else Ishikawa and Hirano will play ...

Those don't matter here. What matters here is that China don't want Ito to play singles. They want Ishikawa. Once she qualifies for the singles, Japan will be forced to choose Ito over Hayata for the team. That will essentially take out the strongest pair for singles(Ito, Hirano), team(Ito/Hirano/Hayata), and mixed doubles(Harimoto/Hayata). 3 birds with 1 stone.

zeio
06-19-2019, 02:59 PM
I guess that closes the discussion of who are the candidates for men's singles on the men's side. Who did the CNT send on the women's side? That also says a lot.

From the Official T2Diamond Weibo post above, these players are confirmed.

https://www.weibo.com/6063330150/HzwkXC9B6?from=page_1006066063330150_profile&wvr=6&mod=weibotime&type=comment#_rnd1560952757529
ML
XX
FZD
Harimoto
Boll
Mizutani
Calderano

https://www.weibo.com/6063330150/HzCqikknQ?from=page_1006066063330150_profile&wvr=6&mod=weibotime&type=comment#_rnd1560952653997
DN
Ishikawa
ZYL
Szocs
FTW
Ito

driversbeat
06-19-2019, 03:00 PM
JNT owned themselves with their lame selection process. GG

Tempest/Comet
06-19-2019, 03:24 PM
zeioは賢い人です - Tempest
VC pls read post #140 regarding WC change.

Vlad Celler
06-19-2019, 03:25 PM
Those don't matter here. What matters here is that China don't want Ito to play singles. They want Ishikawa. Once she qualifies for the singles, Japan will be forced to choose Ito over Hayata for the team. That will essentially take out the strongest pair for singles(Ito, Hirano), team(Ito/Hirano/Hayata), and mixed doubles(Harimoto/Hayata). 3 birds with 1 stone.

Fully agree with you ....

Vlad Celler
06-19-2019, 03:34 PM
From the Official T2Diamond Weibo post above, these players are confirmed.

https://www.weibo.com/6063330150/HzwkXC9B6?from=page_1006066063330150_profile&wvr=6&mod=weibotime&type=comment#_rnd1560952757529
ML
XX
FZD
Harimoto
Boll
Mizutani
Calderano

https://www.weibo.com/6063330150/HzCqikknQ?from=page_1006066063330150_profile&wvr=6&mod=weibotime&type=comment#_rnd1560952653997
DN
Ishikawa
ZYL
Szocs
FTW
Ito

Is there an official list of confirmed members of the Malaysian Diamond other than Weibo?
(JTTA for example published an official list of participants ....)

zeio
06-19-2019, 03:59 PM
This - https://t2diamond.com/players/ ?

Vlad Celler
06-19-2019, 04:18 PM
Thank you ... But I did not see a list of confirmed participants for Diamond in Malaysia ....

Jacky Kwok
06-19-2019, 04:27 PM
With most of the top players in the World Tour Standings are Chinese and only a few of them are going to participate in the T2, Ishikawa will be able to join all 3 T2 tournaments basically.

Vlad Celler
06-19-2019, 04:58 PM
If not all Chinese women who get the necessary points will participate, then yes .....
Previously, it was correctly written that China, in principle, does not need these points for Diamond ......

apacible
06-19-2019, 05:26 PM
Classic example of Deus ex machina for Ishikawa. Definition from Wikipedia: "Deus ex machina is a plot device (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plot_device) whereby a seemingly unsolvable problem in a story is suddenly and abruptly resolved by an unexpected and seemingly unlikely occurrence, typically so much as to seem contrived."

The way everyone has been reacting makes it seem that Ito losing her singles spot is a foregone conclusion. However, in my opinion, Ito is still leading the race if you consider that she's played only 6 events as compared to Ishikawa's 7 events and Hirano's 8 events. Ito's advantage is her WTTC 2018 result, which merited her 2000 points, which is the most a Japanese player will probably get from a single event (unless someone unexpectedly wins a WT Platinum event). In a ranking system that only counts the Top 8 results, getting more ranking points from a single event is more advantageous since the lower results can be replaced. To illustrate, let's say player A played 2 tournaments and got 2000 and 500 points for a total of 2500 points. Player B got 1250 and 1250 points from the same 2 tournaments also for a total of 2500 points. Player A has the higher upside to gain more ranking points. Why? In the next tournament, let's say both players got 1500 points. Player A lowest result of 500 points will be replaced while Player B's lowest result of 1250 will be replaced by the same 1500 points. Player A will end up with more total points all thanks to her single event giving her massive points in one sitting.

Certainly, Ito has less breathing room now, but as long as she doesn't crumble horribly, she should be fine. I used my excel sheet to compute possible scenarios should Ishikawa and Hirano both finish as semi-finalists in the World Cup, but Ito would still lead them by a few hundred points as long as she can finish in the QF in at least two more World Tour events. This is contingent on Ishikawa and Hirano not progressing further than the QF in the World Tour events, which should be the case as long as China continues to control the top 4-5 positions in the WR and there's no "match-fixing."

In fact, I still believe Hirano is more in danger of losing her spot to Ishikawa than Ito is. Hirano is still the 9th seed and will face Chinese players or Ito/Ishikawa in the R16 of World Tour events at the latest. Furthermore, she's not going to be a Top 4 seed for the World Cup, which makes a SF finish more difficult for her. She has a 50% of meeting a Chinese player in the QF. She has a 25% chance of meeting Ishikawa. In this matchup, only the winner can get the lion's share of the WR points, while the loser gets less points due to a QF finish. Based on my computations, Ito will still have more WR points than whoever loses that match. Hirano has a 25% chance of meeting Cheng I-Ching and Hirano isn't that heavily favored over her since Cheng has beaten Top Japanese players in the past and has even beaten some lower-ranked Chinese players.

Assuming seeding in the first T2 Diamond event is based on WT standings, Ito is favored to make at least the QF since she won't face a Chinese player in the first round due to her seeding. Ishikawa and Hirano are in the bottom 8 of the WT standings for the T2 qualifiers so they need luckier draws to make it further in the tournament.

One thing to consider, however, is the World Team Cup. The player chosen to play the first singles match is expected to get at least 1200 points (4 wins for 4 rounds with 300 points for each win.) This is if Coach Baba doesn't rotate the player chosen to play 2 singles matches for the entire duration of the tournament. This would give the player chosen to play 2 singles matches an unfair advantage over her teammates since she would essentially play more matches than her teammates in the same tournament, which will lead her to more wins and more ranking points.

Takkyu_wa_inochi
06-19-2019, 05:46 PM
I hope the JNT coaches will find a way to have the best possible team, even if it means tweaking the rules

Vlad Celler
06-19-2019, 05:49 PM
Good analysis ....
But I believe that by the end of the year, China will take the first 6 positions in the ITTF rating list ..
Anyway, S.Y.S. theoretically has the ability to take 6th place ...She is declared in Korea and Australia ....She currently has 7th and 8th results small ...Has the right to participate in the Diamond ....Another thing is whether she will be allowed to rise so high ....(where, for example, is last year's Grand Final Xintong finalist now?She is not even declared in Korea and Australia ..)

Vlad Celler
06-19-2019, 05:52 PM
I hope the JNT coaches will find a way to have the best possible team, even if it means tweaking the rules

Similarly ... Unfortunately, the Olympics in Japan put too much pressure on the JNT ....The cost of mistakes in choosing a team is very high ....

darucla
06-19-2019, 05:53 PM
T2 Facebook.
https://business.facebook.com/T2Diamond/

Sali
06-19-2019, 07:19 PM
@apacible
Everything could be fine with your analysis if Ito does not meet chinese player in opening round and this can happen as long as china send many players for tournaments.

Vlad Celler
06-19-2019, 07:36 PM
@apacible
Everything could be fine with your analysis if Ito does not meet chinese player in opening round and this can happen as long as china send many players for tournaments.

That's right ... In this case, the results are 50:50 if Ito is in good shape .....
And I trust the opinion of L.G.L., Li Sun and Guo Yan ... .....Very, very experienced coaches ....We know their opinion about Ito ....

In fact, the only one who represents a real threat to China's women's table tennis....

usualsuspect
06-19-2019, 09:05 PM
That's right ... In this case, the results are 50:50 if Ito is in good shape .....
And I trust the opinion of L.G.L., Li Sun and Guo Yan ... .....Very, very experienced coaches ....We know their opinion about Ito ....
In fact, the only one who represents a real threat to China's women's table tennis....

Despite what the Chinese coaches say, we don't know how they actually rate Ito behind closed doors.
Judging from the recent matches Ito had against CNT players, Chinese coaches have quite successfully developed a counter to her style. Only time will tell if Ito can evolve and overcome this.

NextLevel
06-19-2019, 09:23 PM
Despite what the Chinese coaches say, we don't know how they actually rate Ito behind closed doors.
Judging from the recent matches Ito had against CNT players, Chinese coaches have quite successfully developed a counter to her style. Only time will tell if Ito can evolve and overcome this.

Actually, in various ways, we do. No need to make it sound like we don't hear from the players themselves how much they practice dealing with her with the pips practice partners and how the pips players have gotten more prominence because of Ito's rise.

Dealing with a threat successfully is not an indication it was never a serious threat. In fact, I still take Li Xiaoxia's summary of the situation as pretty much complete. Li said pips are inferior to inverted and that will always cap Ito, but Ito as a player herself is very talented. Li believes that China's superior resource depth and the flexibility of inverted looping will win out.

So none of the coaches believe that they shouldn't beat Ito. But all of them also regard Ito as a legitimate threat. There is no need to make it seem that China has a hidden agenda. Gu Yuting after barely beating Ito also pushed her teammates in tough matches, taking 3 game off Chen Meng who she hadn't taken a game off in years.

So I take Guo Yan at her word 100%. Same with Li Sun and the other coaches. You won't hear them discussing Ishikawa the way they discuss Ito.

aerial
06-20-2019, 03:07 AM
the JNT should amend their own rules and say that JNT players that have beaten CNT players in the past year should get double points or something lol

apacible
06-20-2019, 03:44 AM
@apacible
Everything could be fine with your analysis if Ito does not meet chinese player in opening round and this can happen as long as china send many players for tournaments.

Very true, but Ishikawa and Hirano have equal chances of meeting a Chinese player in the opening round as well. The chances of Ito drawing Chinese players consistently while at the same time, both Hirano and Ishikawa consistently avoid a Chinese player over a span of several tournaments is low. Moreover, Ito still has a fighting chance in matches against Chinese players if ever they do meet. Ishikawa and Hirano are almost guaranteed to lose if ever they do draw a Chinese player based on track record.

Janard
06-20-2019, 05:03 AM
Well, T2 Diamond just announced the following additions:

Liu Shiwen
Miu Hirano
Wang Manyu
Cheng I-Ching
Sofia Polcanova

Vlad Celler
06-20-2019, 05:33 AM
Very true, but Ishikawa and Hirano have equal chances of meeting a Chinese player in the opening round as well. The chances of Ito drawing Chinese players consistently while at the same time, both Hirano and Ishikawa consistently avoid a Chinese player over a span of several tournaments is low. Moreover, Ito still has a fighting chance in matches against Chinese players if ever they do meet. Ishikawa and Hirano are almost guaranteed to lose if ever they do draw a Chinese player based on track record.

Agreed

Vlad Celler
06-20-2019, 05:35 AM
There is no complete list of confirmed players, I understand correctly?
10 Chinese women scored the required number of points to participate in the Diamond in Malaysia ....If all ten will participate, then Ishikawa and Kato will not .....

Tempest/Comet
06-20-2019, 06:03 AM
There is no complete list of confirmed players, I understand correctly?
10 Chinese women scored the required number of points to participate in the Diamond in Malaysia ....If all ten will participate, then Ishikawa and Kato will not .....
Ishikawa & Kato have been officially announced to the world, this cannot be changed. They are going to T2.
Only 9 chinese women were in the top 15, GYT was in the tie group with Ishikawa, with Kato directly behind. If Kato is in, then China withdrawn 4, if Han Ying is in, they pulled 5.

Vlad Celler
06-20-2019, 06:19 AM
Thank!

NextLevel
06-20-2019, 12:52 PM
China may have agreed to pull 5 players just to make the event more diverse and because of the national championships. Which 5 is open. I would have thought the 5 going would be DN, LSW, CM, WMY and ZYL because those are the players with a legit chance of playing in the Olympics.

Vlad Celler
06-20-2019, 01:04 PM
Is there a deadline to confirm player participation?

zeio
06-20-2019, 01:07 PM
They should already have the confirmed list for a few days. Just trying to hype it up by releasing the names separately.

Vlad Celler
06-20-2019, 01:20 PM
Thank....Presumably a month before the start should be published?
It will be interesting to see what remains of the original list ....

1. WANG Manyu - 863

2. CHEN Meng - 750

3. LIU Shiwen - 463

4. ZHU Yuling - 325

5. DING Ning - 300

5. ITO Mima - 300

7. SUN Yingsha - 256

8. CHEN Xingtong - 181

9. FENG Tianwei - 158

10. WANG Yidi - 133

11. CHENG I-Ching - 125

12. HE Zhuojia - 108

13. HIRANO Miu - 100

14. CHENG Hsien-Tzu - 91

15. DOO Hoi Kem - 83

15. POLCANOVA S - 83

...
17. SZOCS Bernadette - 81

18. ISHIKAWA Kasumi - 75

driversbeat
06-20-2019, 02:22 PM
Bernadette did better on tour than Ishikawa? I don't recall seeing her on tour at all lately.

Vlad Celler
06-20-2019, 02:36 PM
Perhaps the Wild Card?

However, this is only the first Diamond, Malaysia ....

Jacky Kwok
06-20-2019, 02:38 PM
They will reveal the full participants list tomorrow.

Vlad Celler
06-20-2019, 03:22 PM
Thank you .... That's great! We'll see.....

pongfugrasshopper
06-20-2019, 04:21 PM
Bernadette did better on tour than Ishikawa? I don't recall seeing her on tour at all lately.
For 2019, I think Ishikawa not playing in the Hungarian Open hurt her which is where Szocs made the QF. However, Szocs did not make the main draw at the Qatar Open, but Ishikawa was unlucky and drew SYS at Qatar in the 1st round and lost. Both made R16 at the China Open... Ishikawa lost to CXT; Szocs lost to CIC. Japan Open is past the cut-off date for the 1st T2 event.

usualsuspect
06-20-2019, 08:22 PM
Actually, in various ways, we do. No need to make it sound like we don't hear from the players themselves how much they practice dealing with her with the pips practice partners and how the pips players have gotten more prominence because of Ito's rise.

Dealing with a threat successfully is not an indication it was never a serious threat. In fact, I still take Li Xiaoxia's summary of the situation as pretty much complete. Li said pips are inferior to inverted and that will always cap Ito, but Ito as a player herself is very talented. Li believes that China's superior resource depth and the flexibility of inverted looping will win out.

So none of the coaches believe that they shouldn't beat Ito. But all of them also regard Ito as a legitimate threat. There is no need to make it seem that China has a hidden agenda. Gu Yuting after barely beating Ito also pushed her teammates in tough matches, taking 3 game off Chen Meng who she hadn't taken a game off in years.

So I take Guo Yan at her word 100%. Same with Li Sun and the other coaches. You won't hear them discussing Ishikawa the way they discuss Ito.

Doesn't matter how talented Ito is. She has critical flaws in her style. Unless they are fixed, her chance of winning against Chinese A team will decline over time. The same applies to Harimoto.

NextLevel
06-20-2019, 08:49 PM
Doesn't matter how talented Ito is. She has critical flaws in her style. Unless they are fixed, her chance of winning against Chinese A team will decline over time. The same applies to Harimoto.

The subject was not whether Ito or Harimoto supposedly have fundamental flaws - even Xu Xin has a relatively weak backhand and he has been CNT A his whole life.

It was whether the Chinese team considered Ito a serious threat. You make it sound as if anyone was even scaring or winning matches against the Chinese in the last decade before Hirano and Ito came along. Guo Yan and Li Sun were speaking on this context.

As for the future, who really knows. If you want we can place money on a Harimoto bet. I consider most of his perceived weaknesses to be a sign of youth. You may disagree. But I think it is easy to take a popular opinion (no one can beat the CNT) and then act like those who are 20% successful are failures because you set the bar at 80%. Forgetting that historically maybe no one got to 5%.

Tempest/Comet
06-21-2019, 06:34 AM
T2 Women’s list
WMY, CM, LSW, ZYL, DN, ITO, SYS, FTW, CIC, HIRANO, CHEN Szu-yu, DOO, POLCANOVA, SZOCS, ISHIKAWA, KATO.

CNT pulled CXT, WYD, HZJ, so Polcanova, Ishikawa, Kato got in, Szocs got the ‘Host Exemption’ for being ‘18 Champ.

zeio
06-21-2019, 07:45 AM
A brilliant ass pull.

https://i.imgur.com/OY5IslOh.png

driversbeat
06-21-2019, 10:36 AM
19381

19380

since we are on the topic of win rates and what makes someone a true threat to chinese dominance I figured I would compile a (nonexhaustive) list of the wins of women who have been labelled 'threats' against the chinese.


Some of my choices were questionable, especially after calculations had been made (*AHEM* Yu Mengyu, Dang Ye Seo, Shen Yanfei) but it really goes to show how dominant the Chinese have been when even a single victory against their main players is enough for you to be considered a threat.


Considering the fact that defeating second string chinese players doesn't do anything to nullify their dominance, I've only calculated matchups against CNT women who have at least done one of:


1. Represented China in the Olympics since 2004
2. Appeared in more than one WTTC singles event
(i.e. no Mu Zi, Cao Zhen or Hu Limei - again, I might have missed out some people)


Some findings:
a) Zhang Yining, Ding Ning and Li Xiaoxia are major confounders to the data, scoring 10 or more wins over multiple opponents (no coincidence then that they are all Olympic champions), Liu Shiwen is up there in this list as well, and the cells have been highlighted in red.


b) Beating a Chinese player more than once is an accomplishment. Cells highlighted in yellow show match-ups where a non-chinese player has beaten a CNT player 3 or more times. Only Jiang Huajun and Li Jiawei have this ascendency over more than 1 player.


c) Building on the previous point, many players have beaten individual players of CNT's core team once, but never again once they've been 'figured out' as we like to say here. Notably, Mima Ito has only beaten Liu Shiwen and Ding Ning more than once. That says something about her long-term threat to the Chinese. It remains to be seen whether the younger generation are as susceptible to her play style.


d) Mima Ito leads the rest of the pack by far with a 25.71% rate over main CNT players. Surprisingly, Tamara Boros comes in second at 22.86%, though my data could have been confounded for not including players before the 2004 era, in which Boros was more active. Other notable players with a win rate of >15% are: FENG Tianwei, JIANG Huajun and GAO Jun


e) Average win rate for someone who is considered a 'threat to CNT' is 12.87%. Players who have less than 10% win rate against CNT are: MIU Hirano, ISHIKAWA Kasumi, Lin Ling, SHEN Yanfei and YU Mengyu


I think the saddest part of this all is that the biggest threat to CNT only has a 1/4 chance of beating the main team. I'm sure her stats are higher if second-string players are included, but I doubt the percentage will go beyond 30%. That's Japan's chances of winning gold in Tokyo 2020, folks.

*information is based on ITTF's head-to-head data base, which to my knowledge is not 100% accurate. There are several instances where they have missed out matches that I recall very specifically

*results are definitely biased as I have included Chinese Super League results to slightly bolster the wins of non-CNT players. So the actual numbers are actually slightly more dismal :D

zeio
06-21-2019, 10:43 AM
More on Tamara Boros - http://mytabletennis.net/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=79895&PID=990730&title=greatest-female-tt-players-ever#990730

Ito's overall winning percentage against the CNT is 33.3%, and 29.6% if counting only those playing in WTTC/WTTTC. Those numbers include matches from when she was 11 years old. In 2018, her winning percentage was 60%(12/20), and 62.5%(5/8) if counting only the WTTTC members. LSW 2w, DN 1w1l, ZYL 1w, WMY 1w2l.

Like Guo Yan said in the interview, the CNT has not faced a stronger threat in a long time.

driversbeat
06-21-2019, 11:18 AM
That is indeed impressive, but my point (c) in that you haven't proven yourself against a CNT player until you beat them more than once still stands.

ITO is undeniably impressive but her feats of winning several main CNT players in an Open have been accomplished before (Jiang Huajun, Fukuhara, Feng Tianwei).

I really hope ITO lives up to all the hype by winning a medal (or title) of a world cup or major asian game at least but she's been consistently cockblocked via participation of Hirano as well as unranked qualifiers like Sun Yingsha.

NextLevel
06-21-2019, 02:53 PM
That is indeed impressive, but my point (c) in that you haven't proven yourself against a CNT player until you beat them more than once still stands.

ITO is undeniably impressive but her feats of winning several main CNT players in an Open have been accomplished before (Jiang Huajun, Fukuhara, Feng Tianwei).

I really hope ITO lives up to all the hype by winning a medal (or title) of a world cup or major asian game at least but she's been consistently cockblocked via participation of Hirano as well as unranked qualifiers like Sun Yingsha.

Note that a couple of the players you listed are Chinese exports, so you are really left with Fukuhara. Your point is taken, and maybe the standard for threat is set too low. Maybe the CNT is just so bored that they are looking for an opportunity to rally your team around an enemy. But I think there is clear evidence that it really is not that straightforward. For me, I see the matches and I can see that they are competitive. And the problems Ito faces are not insoluble things, though it will be nothing new if they do not get her results vs CNT. Let's see whether Ito will beat another CNT player this year or play a competitive match after being solved. I think that will answer the question better than arguing.

driversbeat
06-21-2019, 03:06 PM
Definitely. You raised two points that crossed my mind but didn't manage to address. Hayata hasn't beaten anyone in CNT's core besides Liu Shiwen but everyone can see that she's more competitive than Ishikawa or even Hirano. But that's the limitations of data for you. Going into games ratio would have been too tedious for me to handle.

Apart from Kim Kyungah and Tamara Boros, everyone else in the list outside of JNT was an import. Which speaks to how immense the gulf was between CNT and the rest of the world; a gap which JNT has successfully filled in recent years, but they are still a long way from toppling CNT.

Also I'd like to clarify that I'm not one for arguing. I'm just a TT nerd who had a little extra time at work today and decided to contribute to the analysis on this thread.

usualsuspect
06-21-2019, 07:18 PM
The subject was not whether Ito or Harimoto supposedly have fundamental flaws - even Xu Xin has a relatively weak backhand and he has been CNT A his whole life.

It was whether the Chinese team considered Ito a serious threat. You make it sound as if anyone was even scaring or winning matches against the Chinese in the last decade before Hirano and Ito came along. Guo Yan and Li Sun were speaking on this context.

As for the future, who really knows. If you want we can place money on a Harimoto bet. I consider most of his perceived weaknesses to be a sign of youth. You may disagree. But I think it is easy to take a popular opinion (no one can beat the CNT) and then act like those who are 20% successful are failures because you set the bar at 80%. Forgetting that historically maybe no one got to 5%.

I'm not saying Ito and Harimoto weren't a threat. But are they still a threat now that most CNT players have learned to exploit their substantial weaknesses? If so, how big of a threat are they for the 2020 Olympic?

Of course there are many ways Ito and Harimoto could address their technical flaws in the long run. But I don't see any short term fixes they could employ to help with their 2020 Tokyo ambitions.

NextLevel
06-21-2019, 10:38 PM
I'm not saying Ito and Harimoto weren't a threat. But are they still a threat now that most CNT players have learned to exploit their substantial weaknesses? If so, how big of a threat are they for the 2020 Olympic?

Of course there are many ways Ito and Harimoto could address their technical flaws in the long run. But I don't see any short term fixes they could employ to help with their 2020 Tokyo ambitions.

Well the truth is that no one knows whether a fix at the professional level is short term or long term. You may very well be right but you can also be wrong. Your position is conservative like mine (China has a huge edge) but we differ in our analysis of the gap. What you don't see could very well be a function of your inability to see as much as anything objective. Good coaches have told me that when they fix a player, the player usually plays worse but that they don't know how much longer the player will play worse etc. But given the amount of training time these athletes put in, just about anything is fixable of it is reasonably so.

China is the favorite. Nothing changes that. But no need to pretend you have some special insight into what Harimoto and Ito can or can't do on the basis of that. For me, the one thing I am 95% sure of is that Harimoto will be physically stronger next year than he is this year. People trivialize the impact of that. Let's wait and see.

usualsuspect
06-24-2019, 10:07 PM
Well the truth is that no one knows whether a fix at the professional level is short term or long term. You may very well be right but you can also be wrong. Your position is conservative like mine (China has a huge edge) but we differ in our analysis of the gap. What you don't see could very well be a function of your inability to see as much as anything objective. Good coaches have told me that when they fix a player, the player usually plays worse but that they don't know how much longer the player will play worse etc. But given the amount of training time these athletes put in, just about anything is fixable of it is reasonably so.

China is the favorite. Nothing changes that. But no need to pretend you have some special insight into what Harimoto and Ito can or can't do on the basis of that. For me, the one thing I am 95% sure of is that Harimoto will be physically stronger next year than he is this year. People trivialize the impact of that. Let's wait and see.

Ok, you provided a long response with shockingly little insight into the actual issue.
I don't pretend to have any extra insight. I know what everybody knows: 1) Harimoto is weak to short services to his FH and he is relatively weak in topspin rallies away from table. 2) Ito is weak to long backspin services to her BH. Her lethality also decreases significantly once forced away from the table.
3) Top CNT members (and even some 2nd tier members) have capitalized on these weaknesses to neutralize Harimoto and Ito in recent international events. Based on Harimoto and Ito's performance against top CNT players in recent months, I'd say the new tactic is a success. This leads me to believe Harimoto and Ito, although still a major threat to CNT's dominance in the long run, are no longer a major threat in 2020 Olympic.

If you think Ito and Harimoto will still be a significant threat in 2020 Olympic despite the aforementioned weaknesses, please provide specific techniques or tactics that Harimoto and Ito can learn/employ to counter CNT's tactics. Please don't give me a bunch of vague opinions that "some coaches" said about "some players" that you somehow think applies to this specific situation about these two specific players' growth.

NextLevel
06-25-2019, 06:04 AM
Ok, you provided a long response with shockingly little insight into the actual issue.
I don't pretend to have any extra insight. I know what everybody knows: 1) Harimoto is weak to short services to his FH and he is relatively weak in topspin rallies away from table. 2) Ito is weak to long backspin services to her BH. Her lethality also decreases significantly once forced away from the table.
3) Top CNT members (and even some 2nd tier members) have capitalized on these weaknesses to neutralize Harimoto and Ito in recent international events. Based on Harimoto and Ito's performance against top CNT players in recent months, I'd say the new tactic is a success. This leads me to believe Harimoto and Ito, although still a major threat to CNT's dominance in the long run, are no longer a major threat in 2020 Olympic.

If you think Ito and Harimoto will still be a significant threat in 2020 Olympic despite the aforementioned weaknesses, please provide specific techniques or tactics that Harimoto and Ito can learn/employ to counter CNT's tactics. Please don't give me a bunch of vague opinions that "some coaches" said about "some players" that you somehow think applies to this specific situation about these two specific players' growth.

Let's give an example not related to Ito or Harimoto. Quadri Aruna had a backhand so deficient 6 months prior to the Olympics that Chuan Chi Yuan beat Aruna so badly (in Aruna's words, CCY brought his own ball and didn't let Aruna play). At the Olympics, CCY was asked how he lost to Aruna 0-4 and CCY said that Aruna's backhand play surprised him. Was anyone going to bet on Aruna developing sufficiently good backhand play to beat CCY or Boll prior to the Olympics?

In recent months, Mima Ito has beaten Ding Ning and Sun Minyang and Wang Yidi on CNT. She also lost to Wang Yidi, Gu Yuting, Sun Yingsha, and possibly a few others I cannot remember. So did all these players fail to deploy the correct tactics? Other than Wang Yidi, did these tactics lead to 4-0 victories? Is it really just the tactics or do the players have to execute perfectly on a specfic day?

If Ito can't return long backspin serves to set up a pattern that allows her to win points (say, vs Wang Yidi or Gu Yuting), then the coach can work on ways of her returning those serves to set up patterns that she can control, either with a quality pips loops/chiquita/flat attacks or with a higher quality loop vs backspin off a pivot. Can Ito actually develop this? Who knows? Are there other solutions? Possibly. Her game has never been designed to rally off the table, so spending time working on this doesn't make sense. But if there are point patterns that support or require it, maybe. I suspect most of the effort will be spent on making sure she needs to back up less and less.

Harimoto lost to Sun Wen spectacularly, but when we avoid focusing on that loss, his performance against the CNT has been pretty decent. He has lost to LGY 2-4, beat ZY 4-1, lost to ML 1-3 and 1-4, FZD 1-4. Well he also hasn't beaten XX.

Every player is relatively weak on short serves to the forehand and Harimoto is no exception. He has used his chiquita on some short balls to the forehand and he has a good short push. The issue for Harimoto is that he is naturally weaker than most of this CNT counterparts from a physical standpoint given his age and muscle mass so this makes him unable to generate quality similar to theirs off the table. So when forced to rally, he usually performs significantly worse. Maybe he won't get that much stronger over the next year. Maybe his game won't evolve sufficiently to support rallying off the table. But given that he is 16 and he has time to work on his game, there is no reason he can't work on this over the next year. After all, his coach said after a recent loss to ML that Harimoto has to incorporate more of the patterns of ML into his game. What I don't get is why a 16 year old with good technique is suddenly possessed with "fatal flaws". There is no inherent reason why Harimoto can incorporate more of Lin Gaoyuan's approach to TT since they are both very similar in a variety of ways.

The fact that you are looking for specific tactics is a bit silly, with all due respect. IF Ma Long is pushing long to Fan Zhendong, is that a specific tactic that Ma Long should be getting away with? Yet Ma Long does it often and has gotten away with it so far. Every player and matchup has its own rhythm. You cannot tell what a player will develop in response to his opponents. When Quadri improved his backhand play, it was largely his blocking and punching that became more consistent and far less about his backhand loop. Players just work on stuff and if it fits into their game and the tactics they deploy, great. And if they can't execute it, great.

In the last 2 years, one would struggle to find any single player who has beaten as many CNT players as Harimoto or Ito have. And one would struggle to also expect the CNT to be seriously challenged by any country in 2020, Harimoto notwithstanding. But maybe you mean by threat that Harimoto and Ito should have a 50% plus chance of winning, which is not what the CNT means by threat. By threat, the CNT never expects to be threatened to lose. I have explained previously that the reason why Harimoto and Ito are dangerous is that they are young and they evolve so the CNT is always trying to be ready to adapt to them. They also always have a non-zero chance of beating CNT members. It is when you treat them as static that you run the danger of losing to them as they continue to work on their games and build new weapons and solutions into them.

The good thing is that you at least have hope for them in the long run. As for the short run, I think you are more confident than I am that they can't do anything to trouble the Chinese.

usualsuspect
06-25-2019, 07:54 PM
If Ito can't return long backspin serves to set up a pattern that allows her to win points (say, vs Wang Yidi or Gu Yuting), then the coach can work on ways of her returning those serves to set up patterns that she can control, either with a quality pips loops/chiquita/flat attacks or with a higher quality loop vs backspin off a pivot. Can Ito actually develop this? Who knows? Are there other solutions? Possibly. Her game has never been designed to rally off the table, so spending time working on this doesn't make sense. But if there are point patterns that support or require it, maybe. I suspect most of the effort will be spent on making sure she needs to back up less and less.

Every player is relatively weak on short serves to the forehand and Harimoto is no exception. He has used his chiquita on some short balls to the forehand and he has a good short push. The issue for Harimoto is that he is naturally weaker than most of this CNT counterparts from a physical standpoint given his age and muscle mass so this makes him unable to generate quality similar to theirs off the table. So when forced to rally, he usually performs significantly worse. Maybe he won't get that much stronger over the next year. Maybe his game won't evolve sufficiently to support rallying off the table. But given that he is 16 and he has time to work on his game, there is no reason he can't work on this over the next year. After all, his coach said after a recent loss to ML that Harimoto has to incorporate more of the patterns of ML into his game. What I don't get is why a 16 year old with good technique is suddenly possessed with "fatal flaws". There is no inherent reason why Harimoto can incorporate more of Lin Gaoyuan's approach to TT since they are both very similar in a variety of ways.

The fact that you are looking for specific tactics is a bit silly, with all due respect. IF Ma Long is pushing long to Fan Zhendong, is that a specific tactic that Ma Long should be getting away with? Yet Ma Long does it often and has gotten away with it so far. Every player and matchup has its own rhythm. You cannot tell what a player will develop in response to his opponents. When Quadri improved his backhand play, it was largely his blocking and punching that became more consistent and far less about his backhand loop. Players just work on stuff and if it fits into their game and the tactics they deploy, great. And if they can't execute it, great.


Wow... Thanks for telling me in such great detail something everybody already knows. Of course, Ito's style is specifically designed to be threatening close to the table. The same is true of Harimoto's style. This is like telling me water is wet.

TT is a very technical sport. The tactics and skills involved at professional level is very intricate. You should stop acting as if you knew all the players' styles and tactics. My assessment on Ito and Harimoto has nothing to do with my "confidence" or any other feelings, it's all based purely on observation of their style and tactics employed by CNT players during their matches.

So here is another free lesson for you on Harimoto and why he's losing. CNT's current tactic primarily revolves around limiting the quality and angle of Harimoto's opening attacks.

Harimoto is very threatening close to and over the table. Most of his points are won with attacks close to the table. He much prefers his BH, his FH is relatively weak. His primary offensive weapons are BH and FH flicks, both are fast and devastating. However, Harimoto can only do quality FH flicks diagonally and most of Harimoto's BH flips are parallel shots. His touches and pushes are relatively weak. His parallel FH flip is also relatively weak. Using this knowledge to their advantage, CNT players send short services of varying spins to Harimoto's wide FH to force Harimoto into doing one of the following things: 1) diagonal FH flick, 2) use parallel BH flick on FH side, 3) soft touch, or 4) deep push. Harimoto's touch and push are not threatening, which is opportunity for attacks to win the point or force Harimoto away from the table, where he is much less threatening. If Harimoto uses BH flicks on FH side, it will force him to open up his BH corner. Opponent can attack Harimoto's BH corner to either win the point or get into BH rally, which is roughly 50/50 situation on who will win the point. If Harimoto uses FH flicks, they are only threatening on opponent's FH side. Opponent can just focus on blocking or counterloop on his FH side. In their last encounter, Ma Long won many points by counterlooping Harimoto's FH flicks. He could do that because he knew where the shot is going. When Harimoto tried parallel FH flicks, the shots were too weak and Ma Long just countered with powerful BH shots to win the point.
And just like that, the most threatening part of Harimoto's game is neutralized, or at least restrained, depending on the opponent's skill level and execution of the tactics. The fact that Sun Wen beat Harimoto 4:0 while losing many BH rallies to Harimoto really shows how effective this strategy is.

What I've just said above is a very rough breakdown. When CNT coaches breaks it down, they analyze every type of shot Harimoto makes and how often each type of shot is used throughout a match. And what is the best way to counter or prevent certain type of shots from Harimoto.

NextLevel
06-25-2019, 08:29 PM
Wow... Thanks for telling me in such great detail something everybody already knows. Of course, Ito's style is specifically designed to be threatening close to the table. The same is true of Harimoto's style. This is like telling me water is wet.

TT is a very technical sport. The tactics and skills involved at professional level is very intricate. You should stop acting as if you knew all the players' styles and tactics. My assessment on Ito and Harimoto has nothing to do with my "confidence" or any other feelings, it's all based purely on observation of their style and tactics employed by CNT players during their matches.

So here is another free lesson for you on Harimoto and why he's losing. CNT's current tactic primarily revolves around limiting the quality and angle of Harimoto's opening attacks.

Harimoto is very threatening close to and over the table. Most of his points are won with attacks close to the table. He much prefers his BH, his FH is relatively weak. His primary offensive weapons are BH and FH flicks, both are fast and devastating. However, Harimoto can only do quality FH flicks diagonally and most of Harimoto's BH flips are parallel shots. His touches and pushes are relatively weak. His parallel FH flip is also relatively weak. Using this knowledge to their advantage, CNT players send short services of varying spins to Harimoto's wide FH to force Harimoto into doing one of the following things: 1) diagonal FH flick, 2) use parallel BH flick on FH side, 3) soft touch, or 4) deep push. Harimoto's touch and push are not threatening, which is opportunity for attacks to win the point or force Harimoto away from the table, where he is much less threatening. If Harimoto uses BH flicks on FH side, it will force him to open up his BH corner. Opponent can attack Harimoto's BH corner to either win the point or get into BH rally, which is roughly 50/50 situation on who will win the point. If Harimoto uses FH flicks, they are only threatening on opponent's FH side. Opponent can just focus on blocking or counterloop on his FH side. In their last encounter, Ma Long won many points by counterlooping Harimoto's FH flicks. He could do that because he knew where the shot is going. When Harimoto tried parallel FH flicks, the shots were too weak and Ma Long just countered with powerful BH shots to win the point.
And just like that, the most threatening part of Harimoto's game is neutralized, or at least restrained, depending on the opponent's skill level and execution of the tactics. The fact that Sun Wen beat Harimoto 4:0 while losing many BH rallies to Harimoto really shows how effective this strategy is.

What I've just said above is a very rough breakdown. When CNT coaches breaks it down, they analyze every type of shot Harimoto makes and how often each type of shot is used throughout a match. And what is the best way to counter or prevent certain type of shots from Harimoto.

Do you have a similar analysis for Ma Long or Xu Xin or Fan Zhendong?

If you did, maybe it would help you see why your approach to this issue is limited. In fact do it for ML FZD all 3 matches this year.

usualsuspect
06-25-2019, 09:34 PM
Do you have a similar analysis for Ma Long or Xu Xin or Fan Zhendong?

If you did, maybe it would help you see why your approach to this issue is limited. In fact do it for ML FZD all 3 matches this year.

I do. I naturally do this in my head for every tt match I watch. I sometimes watch the same match multiple times.
However, I don't have time to explain all the nuances to you. You already got a free lesson out of me in the last post :cool:
Instead of making baseless arguments with strangers, you should spend more time learning to appreciate the finer points of TT. Next time you watch a TT match, try to focus more on the spin, placement, and tempo, as well as long/short services. These are frequently the key elements seasoned players use to disrupt their opponents.

I will say this though, matches between ML and FZD are especially fun. You really get to see how two technically complete players try to out play each other tactically. In each set, the losing one will adjust their game to surprise the other. And they can make these adjustments so quickly, because they can execute all types of shots well (in other words, they are fundamentally sound).
In terms of technique, power, and speed, ML, FZD, TBoll, LGY, and XX are all nearly flawless, even though each of them has unique strengths over others.
That's why their world rankings are so high and will likely stay high unless there's injury. It's generally difficult to beat them using one set of strategy, because they will quickly adjust and counter it. Their opponents must constantly improvise throughout the match.

NextLevel
06-25-2019, 10:00 PM
I do. I naturally do this in my head for every tt match I watch. I sometimes watch the same match multiple times.
However, I don't have time to explain all the nuances to you. You already got a free lesson out of me in the last post :cool:
Instead of making baseless arguments with strangers, you should spend more time learning to appreciate the finer points of TT. Next time you watch a TT match, try to focus more on the spin, placement, and tempo, as well as long/short services. These are frequently the key elements seasoned players use to disrupt their opponents.

I will say this though, matches between ML and FZD are especially fun. You really get to see how two technically complete players try to out play each other tactically. In each set, the losing one will adjust their game to surprise the other. And they can make these adjustments so quickly, because they can execute all types of shots well (in other words, they are fundamentally sound).
In terms of technique, power, and speed, ML, FZD, TBoll, LGY, and XX are all nearly flawless, even though each of them has unique strengths over others.
That's why their world rankings are so high and will likely stay high unless there's injury. It's generally difficult to beat them using one set of strategy, because they will quickly adjust and counter it. Their opponents must constantly improvise throughout the match.


Thanks but there was a specific reason I asked the question. We see TT differently. Sun Wen won quite a lot of points from service winners and serve return winners. Is that in your analysis as well? And are those also weaknesses of Harimoto? Isn't it easier to conclude that in many ways, Harimoto got ambushed by someone he didn't know how to play and would likely win a rematch? Of course if Harimoto loses to CNT players all the time for the next 6 months, I may rethink that.

It is easy to pretend that tactics are special. But players work on their game all the time. Pretending you know what Harimoto and Ito can or can not improve is interesting.

The funny thing is that I might even know who you are or someone who knows you. TT in Atlanta is not that big so just about everyone knows everyone.

usualsuspect
06-26-2019, 09:56 PM
Thanks but there was a specific reason I asked the question. We see TT differently. Sun Wen won quite a lot of points from service winners and serve return winners. Is that in your analysis as well? And are those also weaknesses of Harimoto? Isn't it easier to conclude that in many ways, Harimoto got ambushed by someone he didn't know how to play and would likely win a rematch? Of course if Harimoto loses to CNT players all the time for the next 6 months, I may rethink that.

It is easy to pretend that tactics are special. But players work on their game all the time. Pretending you know what Harimoto and Ito can or can not improve is interesting.

The funny thing is that I might even know who you are or someone who knows you. TT in Atlanta is not that big so just about everyone knows everyone.

Yeah, most of Sun Wen's points are from service and third ball attacks. Anyone can see that.
The fact that anyone could just show up and "ambush" Harimoto by employing a relatively simple tactic is proof that the kid has critical flaws in his play style. You don't see this happen often with Timo or FZD now, do you?

I don't pretend to know anything. I've told you exactly what I know about Harimoto. And these are just some basic things that most TT fans probably know. I'm just surprised you act as if this is secret knowledge or something.

Sorry, I don't know any Nigerians personally, I hear it's a lovely country though.

driversbeat
06-27-2019, 04:14 AM
Service and third ball isn't a singular technique. It's an umbrella term that covers a broad range of attack patterns. I'm sure the one that Sun Wen employed was specifically designed to target Harimoto. Nothing basic at all. Like Liu Guoliang said, finish the point before the rally, and whatever weapons your opponent has beyond the third ball become irrelevant.

Tempest/Comet
06-29-2019, 06:18 AM
https://youtu.be/QoCUNNeDlnc

ZYL talking about Ito after China Op.

zeio
06-30-2019, 09:28 AM
How about some gossip?

https://wjn.jp/article/detail/5925664/

 「伊藤、平野、早田ひならも苦戦を強いられています。でも、完全に封じ込められているのは石川だけ。石川は国内トップなので、このままいけば自動的に東京五輪代表となりますが、日本がメダルを獲得するには中国に勝たなければなりません。中国に勝てない選手となると、卓球連盟も考えなければなりません」(前出の協会詰め記者)
"Ito, Hirano and Hayata are also struggling, but only Ishikawa is completely shut down. Ishikawa is the top domestic player, and so she'll automatically become the representative for Tokyo Olympics at this rate, but you'll have to defeat China for Japan to win the medal. When it comes to players who can't defeat China, the Table Tennis Federation has to think about it." (reporter accredited to the association)

Vlad Celler
06-30-2019, 11:48 AM
Poor Hina Hayata ...
Korea Open, WS, Preliminary ...
R-128-bye
R-64 - SHI Xunyao (China):(
R-32 (?) - CHEN Ke (China)

Inevitably you will cease to believe in casual sowing ....:mad:

driversbeat
06-30-2019, 01:48 PM
a little surprising that they still refer to Ishikawa as Japan's top player. Maybe in terms of ranking but she doesnt have much else going for her.

Vlad Celler
06-30-2019, 02:23 PM
Perhaps purely formally ....So far, in the current ITTF ranking,she is higher than the other Japanese women ... Bye ....
As for the national rating, I do not know ....Perhaps, too, while she is the first ....

TeoTeoTeo
06-30-2019, 05:52 PM
no point throwing ishikawa in because she can't beat anyone that has a remotely chinese name. throw in hirano ito and hayata done ez

Vlad Celler
06-30-2019, 05:55 PM
It is logical, but .....

Takkyu_wa_inochi
06-30-2019, 06:06 PM
there is not really a national ranking. Rather, they use the result of the national championship as a ranking; So its updated once a year only....

Vlad Celler
06-30-2019, 06:10 PM
Thank...

Vlad Celler
07-01-2019, 08:13 AM
Korea Open, the main grid, WS ....
Miu Hirano, if she wins in the first round, will meet in the second round with Cheng Meng ... (
Cheng Meng will win the first round, I hope, ....)
Similarly, Ishikawa, if she wins the first two rounds (which is far from a fact!), In the third round a game with SYS / LSW ....
Similarly, Ito - in the third round a game with WMY....
:(

Tempest/Comet
07-01-2019, 09:33 AM
In the interest of our discussion in this thread, it is how soon Ishikawa goes down vis a vis Ito & Hirano, doesn’t even matter who/what she looses to.
Do not say “poor Hayata”, Hayata MUST NOT avoid the chinese, if she cannot even win over the qualifier to get into the main draw, then she has absolutely NO CHANCE against the top CNT, other then by fluke. Always seek out the chinese to do battle with, and learn in the process. January 2020 is only an artificial line, Hayata is only 18, look beyond this line and grow for the future.
Bide your time Hayata, many happy and fulfilling years ahead. Godspeed.

Heading into Korea Op, competing points Ito7605, Hirano 7435, Ishikawa 6640.
For Korea Op, each round gain is 180 pts. ie R32 540, r16 720, 1/4 final 900.
With Ishikawa's chance to play T2 Diamond, Ito is now only 965 pts ahead of Ishikawa, but WITHOUT the benefit of World Cup, where the minimum score would be 1020, 1/4 F 1275.

Vlad Celler
07-01-2019, 10:46 AM
In the interest of our discussion in this thread, it is how soon Ishikawa goes down vis a vis Ito & Hirano, doesn’t even matter who/what she looses to.
Do not say “poor Hayata”, Hayata MUST not avoid the chinese, if she cannot even win over the qualifier to get into the main draw, then she has absolutely NO CHANCE against the top CNT, other then by fluke. Always seek out the chinese to do battle with, and learn in the process. January 2020 is only an artificial line, Hayata is only 18, look beyond this line and grow for the future.
Bide your time Hayata, many happy and fulfilling years ahead. Godspeed.

Heading into Korea Op, competing points Ito7605, Hirano 7435, Ishikawa 6640.
each round gain is 180 pts. ie R32 540, r16 720, 1/4 final 900.

I totally agree with your opinion!
You all very clearly expressed!

(But I still feel sorry for Hina Hayata ....):o

Tempest/Comet
07-01-2019, 12:10 PM
Probably off topic, but got no place to share this, sorry.
Japan’s T League has lost ALL it’s Chinese players for the coming season. Nissay lost 2, Kinoshita 1 male 1female.

https://www.sponichi.co.jp/sports/news/2019/05/29/kiji/20190529s00026000079000c.html (https://www.sponichi.co.jp/sports/news/2019/05/29/kiji/20190529s00026000079000c.html)

“母国の縛り”の存在を、相手側から明かされたそうで、「日本の強化に、目立つような形で協力はできないということでしょう」
”restraints of the mother country... cannot stand out in a prominent way to strengthen Japan”

Tempest/Comet
07-01-2019, 12:26 PM
huh?! why some parts of my post appear in gray?

NextLevel
07-01-2019, 12:35 PM
huh?! why some parts of my post appear in gray?

Just a color of the font thing depending on how it was cut and paste. I can see it though. I guess that speaks for itself on how seriously the CNT take the JNT.

Tempest/Comet
07-02-2019, 09:27 AM
On 6/17/19, NHK BS1 released a hr long program on Hayata Hina, paraphrasing her graduation year book’s own quote “Loose NOT to a weak self” as title. This documented Hayata’s trials from All Japan, through her defeat and loosing the WTTC spot to Kato, her high school graduation, to the conclusion of the Oman Op.
You’ll need a Japan VPN to watch NHK, but someone saved it to a Chinese site. Don’t know how long it’ll stay up, enjoy while you can. It takes a bit to load up.
https://www.bilibili.com/video/av55928217/
「弱い自分に負けるな 早田ひな」

Vlad Celler
07-02-2019, 11:07 AM
Zeio, to the rescue! Subtitles! :(