Olympics 2020 who will represent who

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yes definitely DING Ning is the most likely to get the boot but she is the defending champion so I'm counting on that

if she is being told she won't be there, i think to save face, she will announce by herself her retirement because she wants to marry or something like that
 
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I think China's selection is split into 2 categories:

Chen Meng, Wang Manyu, Sun Yingsha (3 choose 2)

Liu Shiwen, Ding Ning (2 choose 1)

Maybe Zhu Yuling is somewhere in there since she won the Japan Open with Xu Xin but it will take a miracle to convince coaches that she's ready for 2020.
 
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Ma Long and Liu Shiwen will 100% be going to Tokyo 2020 but only the former is 100% getting a Singles ticket (unless his injury acts up) while the latter's chances are about 80-90% (up in the air until she confirms that she can effectively defeat Ito and Hayata; Ishikawa and Hirano have never beaten her so those two are already tried and tested to be ineffectual). Slightly unfortunate for LSW as well is the fact that her other teammates are undependable at XD so she might have to give up the Singles event to make up for that. CM didn't step up enough when XX was underperforming at the China Open while ZYL was fortunate that Harimoto is average at doubles so XX could overpower the Japanese pair easily two days ago. FZD/DN's combination has proven to be completely underwhelming. Even though I adore LSW, I have to say that she has yet to achieve the requisite stamina needed to participate in three concurrent events. The WS finals yesterday against SYS proved that back-to-back matches with little breaks in between do take a toll on her (she basically lost her focus during the last two games despite being on par with/possibly ranking above her 18 y/o colleague in terms of skills).

For DN to be selected for the Olympics (let's be frank here and acknowledge that she only has the team event right now), she has to make sure that her previously touted 'golden pairing' with LSW at the upcoming Korean and Australian Opens wins gold at both. After all, LSW has proven numerous times that she can win doubles equally with both left-handed (e.g. Gu Yuting, Ding Ning) and right-handed (e.g. Chen Meng, Zhu Yuling) players so the test really falls on whether DN will be the burden. After all, DN has only succeeded once (with LSW no doubt) out of her five WD finals at the WTTC which in all honesty looks bad on her. Whether WMY participates depends on DN's form nearing the Olympics – her young age and lack of major credentials place her in a passive position to fight for a spot. SYS is surely being groomed to take over but likely for future Olympics (e.g. 2024 Paris). Her chances of being a reserve player are pretty high though. As revealed by LSW, a reserve player's role is no easy feat. S/he has to be the sparring partner for all three colleagues during the entire competition, morning till night, sometimes at the expense of his/her own meal-time. DN's old age and declining skill level makes her a poor candidate compared to SYS, so she will be completely dropped if she doesn't make the 3-person team. CM does well internally and internationally so her chances are only secondary to LSW, as she has yet to reach the level whereby she can lead others (and has flailed on two important finals e.g. WTTC 2019 and Asian Cups 2018 and 2019). The fact that she depended on LSW to devise tactical plans for their WD win (compared to her constant failures w same-gen ZYL and the younger SYS) demonstrates that the CNT's practice of having a veteran lead a junior is necessary. ZYL is completely out of the picture – she is always part of the losses to foreigners (read Japanese; Ito, Hirano, Nagasaki). It's not just about losing, it's about losing really badly (i.e. crumbling).

Like LSW, XX is 100% going to Tokyo 2020 but his doubles specialist status also places him in an disadvantaged position to compete for a Singles spot. Nonetheless, his recent triple win at the JO ensures that such a possibility is not completely foreclosed. FZD's past results make him a naturally strong contender. LGY will be a reserve player at best because fielding two left-handers will force ML to play doubles during the team event. LJK has yet to achieve World Champion status so his chances of going are pretty slim as well.

My predictions: LSW, CM, DN/WMY (reserve WMY if DN goes or SYS if WMY goes) & ML, XX, FZD (reserve LGY).
 
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Ma Long and Liu Shiwen will 100% be going to Tokyo 2020 but only the former is 100% getting a Singles ticket (unless his injury acts up) while the latter's chances are about 80-90% (up in the air until she confirms that she can effectively defeat Ito and Hayata; Ishikawa and Hirano have never beaten her so those two are already tried and tested to be ineffectual). Slightly unfortunate for LSW as well is the fact that her other teammates are undependable at XD so she might have to give up the Singles event to make up for that. CM didn't step up enough when XX was underperforming at the China Open while ZYL was fortunate that Harimoto is average at doubles so XX could overpower the Japanese pair easily two days ago. FZD/DN's combination has proven to be completely underwhelming. Even though I adore LSW, I have to say that she has yet to achieve the requisite stamina needed to participate in three concurrent events. The WS finals yesterday against SYS proved that back-to-back matches with little breaks in between do take a toll on her (she basically lost her focus during the last two games despite being on par with/possibly ranking above her 18 y/o colleague in terms of skills).

For DN to be selected for the Olympics (let's be frank here and acknowledge that she only has the team event right now), she has to make sure that her previously touted 'golden pairing' with LSW at the upcoming Korean and Australian Opens wins gold at both. After all, LSW has proven numerous times that she can win doubles equally with both left-handed (e.g. Gu Yuting, Ding Ning) and right-handed (e.g. Chen Meng, Zhu Yuling) players so the test really falls on whether DN will be the burden. After all, DN has only succeeded once (with LSW no doubt) out of her five WD finals at the WTTC which in all honesty looks bad on her. Whether WMY participates depends on DN's form nearing the Olympics – her young age and lack of major credentials place her in a passive position to fight for a spot. SYS is surely being groomed to take over but likely for future Olympics (e.g. 2024 Paris). Her chances of being a reserve player are pretty high though. As revealed by LSW, a reserve player's role is no easy feat. S/he has to be the sparring partner for all three colleagues during the entire competition, morning till night, sometimes at the expense of his/her own meal-time. DN's old age and declining skill level makes her a poor candidate compared to SYS, so she will be completely dropped if she doesn't make the 3-person team. CM does well internally and internationally so her chances are only secondary to LSW, as she has yet to reach the level whereby she can lead others (and has flailed on two important finals e.g. WTTC 2019 and Asian Cups 2018 and 2019). The fact that she depended on LSW to devise tactical plans for their WD win (compared to her constant failures w same-gen ZYL and the younger SYS) demonstrates that the CNT's practice of having a veteran lead a junior is necessary. ZYL is completely out of the picture – she is always part of the losses to foreigners (read Japanese; Ito, Hirano, Nagasaki). It's not just about losing, it's about losing really badly (i.e. crumbling).

Like LSW, XX is 100% going to Tokyo 2020 but his doubles specialist status also places him in an disadvantaged position to compete for a Singles spot. Nonetheless, his recent triple win at the JO ensures that such a possibility is not completely foreclosed. FZD's past results make him a naturally strong contender. LGY will be a reserve player at best because fielding two left-handers will force ML to play doubles during the team event. LJK has yet to achieve World Champion status so his chances of going are pretty slim as well.

My predictions: LSW, CM, DN/WMY (reserve WMY if DN goes or SYS if WMY goes) & ML, XX, FZD (reserve LGY).

My predicition is for the CNT in the team spot: LSW, CM, WMY

Why i did not mentionend DN? In my opinion DN is getting weaker. Mima Ito outplayed her at the China open. She is not able to handle with the speed and placement of Mima Ito shots and she plays an outdated style. Because Mima Ito is improving constantly as well as Miu Hirano and consequently they would destroy her and then the CNT has a vulnerable point IMO.

For the singles spot a lineup with LSW and CM would be the best. LSW is the current world champion and Chen Meng will be the next captain (when the time comes and LSW has to retire) and she has insane power shots and her style is a very effective weapon against Mima Ito and Miu Hirano.
 
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There is less room for discussion because the Japanese has laid out some clear guidelines for its Olympics candidates, namely that the top two highest ranked players will participate in the Singles event while the third member joining the Team will be recommended by the JTTA.

At the moment, it seems like Hirano and Ito will play Singles (Kasumi will fall behind by then I believe based on this thread). The third player will likely be a left-handed player, with Hina Hayata the most probable? I don't think the JNT places that much of an emphasis on experience compared to the CNT (or the rest of the world for that matter). If anything, Kasumi can be the reserve player so that she will still be there to provide some advice I suppose? On court, there is Mika Baba. Plus, Ito has been to Rio before (was Hirano the reserve then?) so it's not like Ito-Hirano-Hayata will be a completely experience-less trio. If the JNT is willing to revise its guidelines, I would say Ito and Hayata are the better choices for Singles. Hayata in particular plays with inverted rubber on both sides which IMO is the most balanced setup at the moment. Plus, she is relatively tall, fast and produces some very spinny shots which are difficult to return. She actually did as well as can be against XX during XD two days ago. Impressive for their first encounter. My two-cents.
 
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