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SFF_lib
03-23-2022, 11:02 AM
Lets discuss WTT Star Contender Doha 2022

https://www.tabletennisdaily.com/forum/server/php/files/38/501/22/03/29/Hugo2022%20jpg.jpeg
Hugo Calderano enters as number 1 seed (Photo via: WTT Flickr)

A question about qualification round.

Xu Haidong had played quite well and won all matches in the qualification rounds. However, I don't see his name in round 32. Why is that?

Colin Ksh
03-23-2022, 11:21 AM
I've double checked as well but couldn't find him elsewhere. Is it due to injury?

SFF_lib
03-23-2022, 11:24 AM
I've double checked as well but couldn't find him elsewhere. Is it due to injury?
I thought I don't understand all the rules. Maybe there're some rules that dictate the result?

GAOdp
03-23-2022, 11:29 AM
I thought I don't understand all the rules. Maybe there're some rules that dictate the result?
I've already seen this.
For example, Zhao Zihao, about whom I wrote in a separate topic, won the qualification at the Swedish Open-2016.
But for some reason he didn't play in the main round.
It's some kind of Chinese trick.
With what, I don't know

SFF_lib
03-23-2022, 11:46 AM
I've already seen this.
For example, Zhao Zihao, about whom I wrote in a separate topic, won the qualification at the Swedish Open-2016.
But for some reason he didn't play in the main round.
It's some kind of Chinese trick.
With what, I don't know
I was looking forward to seeing him play in the main draw. Quite disappointing.

JeffM
03-23-2022, 11:56 AM
Does anyone have the video/ link to watch Hugo Calderano vs Liu Ding Shuo?
I was waiting for WTT to post the highlight video but they have posted all the other ones and not this one..

GAOdp
03-23-2022, 12:04 PM
Does anyone have the video/ link to watch Hugo Calderano vs Liu Ding Shuo?
I was waiting for WTT to post the highlight video but they have posted all the other ones and not this one..

https://www.youtube.com/embed/_6g4cE7dDfs?autohide=1&controls=1&showinfo=0

NextLevel
03-23-2022, 01:22 PM
How does Alexis Lebrun beat these top players so easily? Amazing ball control but the power is ridiculous.

Dr Evil
03-23-2022, 02:57 PM
How does Alexis Lebrun beat these top players so easily? Amazing ball control but the power is ridiculous.
Tricky serves getting him lots of easy third balls. No doubt about the power.

OldUser
03-24-2022, 10:40 AM
Alex doesn't play that physical, indeed he varies the serves A LOT ! never the same, never from the same place, and never with the same speed, spin or trajectory. He makes the opponents feeling unsafe with the receive, I mean... who can serve aces with a "reverse" FH tomahawk serve nowadays ? he has done 2 aces vs An Jaehyun with this tomahawk kind of serve As he's quite new on the WTT Tour, the guys don't know him that well and are really disturbed by that strategy. Most of the time offensive players serve FH pendulum on their backhand side of the table to have a more powerfull FH oriented game, but not him as he's got a strong backhand that he's also using with a lot of variations: block, chop block, short pushes with or without ! backspin, killers or loopers, his backhand is probably the best now on the tour because he's the ones who varies it the most. He's also very smart: he does mind at all not pushes the ball once more than his opponent to secure the short game and force him to loop in difficult situations to block him easily and counter-attack, he's like Waldner in that way. It's not only the 3rd ball attack neither: he's got an awesome receive, he reads very well the opponent's serves and doesn't mind attacking it with his amazing backhand. If it's on the forehand, he doesn't mind using really short and low pushes as he's got as you mentioned a oustanding ball control on both sides, so not that physical game, but a very clever and effective one.

Takkyu_wa_inochi
03-29-2022, 12:41 AM
@NextLevel
so is Adriana Diaz still a top10 player ? Kihara just ousted her 3-0

NextLevel
03-29-2022, 02:19 AM
@NextLevel
so is Adriana Diaz still a top10 player ? Kihara just ousted her 3-0
https://www.ittf.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/2022_13_SEN_WS.html

That is her current ranking. Is her ranking falsified by losing a match, or is it an achievement that is true until she leaves the top 10?

Takkyu_wa_inochi
03-29-2022, 07:25 AM
https://www.ittf.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/2022_13_SEN_WS.html

That is her current ranking. Is her ranking falsified by losing a match, or is it an achievement that is true until she leaves the top 10?
thats my point, she should enjoy her current ranking because its not gonna last, its been inflated. a bit like Gauzy or Falck. regarding Diaz,we know that continental results give relatively too many free points to the weaker continents champions.

anyway i think the more correct question is, if we leave Chinese players apart, who is the limited club of players which very seldom loses to non-chinese players ?
in Men's not so long ago, i would argue Dima Boll and Mizutani were in that club. Harimoto is (was ? - now he loses anybody - ) in that club as well.
Falck or Moregard even though they got silver at WTTC don't really belong to that club IMO.

In Women's a younger Feng Tianwei, Ishikawa, Ito, now Hayata, Doo Hoi Kem and Cheng I Ching fit that description whether its top 10 or just below. I don't think Adriana is into that club (yet). in WTTC he got to 4th round and played a good match against SYS but she had a very easy draw. her continental results gave her good seeding and she had lucky draws recently. I think she needs to prove a bit more. being able to keep a top ranking is the real thing.

NextLevel
03-29-2022, 09:00 AM
thats my point, she should enjoy her current ranking because its not gonna last, its been inflated. a bit like Gauzy or Falck. regarding Diaz,we know that continental results give relatively too many free points to the weaker continents champions.

anyway i think the more correct question is, if we leave Chinese players apart, who is the limited club of players which very seldom loses to non-chinese players ?
in Men's not so long ago, i would argue Dima Boll and Mizutani were in that club. Harimoto is (was ? - now he loses anybody - ) in that club as well.
Falck or Moregard even though they got silver at WTTC don't really belong to that club IMO.

In Women's a younger Feng Tianwei, Ishikawa, Ito, now Hayata, Doo Hoi Kem and Cheng I Ching fit that description whether its top 10 or just below. I don't think Adriana is into that club (yet). in WTTC he got to 4th round and played a good match against SYS but she had a very easy draw. her continental results gave her good seeding and she had lucky draws recently. I think she needs to prove a bit more. being able to keep a top ranking is the real thing.
Why should we leave Chinese players apart? Because it shows the bias in your logic?We can disagree on Adriana but to me she is clearly qs strong and possibly stronger than any of the women in Europe and is only 21. She has time to learn from and fix some of these things.

Cheng I Ching lost to Linda Bergstrom yesterday. Did you ask whether Cheng I Ching is top 10?

I used to think Adriana and Lily Zhang were in the same class at one time (probably a silly nationalism affected by a view of Adriana's fitness). Then I saw Adriana play Ishikawa and realized that Adriana had a better game than I gave her credit for and that was when I decided that with her age she was going to be top 10. It happened sooner than I expected but I don't even think she is at her peak. She is just a quality player. So is Kihara by the way, and good players can lose to other good players any time, regardless of ranking.

With the depth of the Chinese and Japanese national teams in women, or the depth of Asia and the very top European countries in mens, what top 10 really means is up to anyone to define but claiming that someone isn't top 10 on the basis of one result when they have shown it with other results and most importantly their ranking is just an attempt to see what you want to see.

Takkyu_wa_inochi
03-29-2022, 09:43 AM
Why should we leave Chinese players apart? Because it shows the bias in your logic?We can disagree on Adriana but to me she is clearly qs strong and possibly stronger than any of the women in Europe and is only 21. She has time to learn from and fix some of these things.

Cheng I Ching lost to Linda Bergstrom yesterday. Did you ask whether Cheng I Ching is top 10?

I used to think Adriana and Lily Zhang were in the same class at one time (probably a silly nationalism affected by a view of Adriana's fitness). Then I saw Adriana play Ishikawa and realized that Adriana had a better game than I gave her credit for and that was when I decided that with her age she was going to be top 10. It happened sooner than I expected but I don't even think she is at her peak. She is just a quality player. So is Kihara by the way, and good players can lose to other good players any time, regardless of ranking.

With the depth of the Chinese and Japanese national teams in women, or the depth of Asia and the very top European countries in mens, what top 10 really means is up to anyone to define but claiming that someone isn't top 10 on the basis of one result when they have shown it with other results and most importantly their ranking is just an attempt to see what you want to see.
Personally i think Cheng I-Ching is already past her peak. She's over 30. She got her Olympic medal last year (mixed doubles), and there is no individual WTTC this year. Its normal for her motivation and performance to go down from here.

Yes Adriana is still young. Future will tell. I'm ready to take the under that we've seen already peak Adriana in terms of WR.
She's a good and entertaining player. Her top10 is really a delight to watch again and again, but still i think she's a bit overhyped, and she lacks consistency.

as a reminder here are her latest results from H2 2021

Olympics
3rd round (she got a bye for 1st and 2nd round as 9th seed)
vs Liu Jia 0-4

WTT Contender Tunis
vs Mostafavi 3-0
vs Bergstrom 3-1
vs Shao Jieni 3-0
vs Yang Xiaoxin 3-4

WTT Contender Lazko
vs Vovk 3-0
vs Zeng 0-3

WTTC Houston
vs Toliou 4-0
vs Kukulkova 4-0
vs Chen YS 4-2
vs Sun Yingsha 2-4

WTT finals
vs Wang Yidi 1-3

WTT Contender Muscat
vs Fan Siqi 1-3

WTT Smash Singapore
vs Jeger 3-0
vs Shao Jieni 3-1
vs Wang Manyu 0-3

I cannot say I'm impressed

NextLevel
03-29-2022, 09:57 AM
Personally i think Cheng I-Ching is already past her peak. She's over 30. She got her Olympic medal last year (mixed doubles), and there is no individual WTTC this year. Its normal for her motivation and performance to go down from here.

Yes Adriana is still young. Future will tell. I'm ready to take the under that we've seen already peak Adriana in terms of WR.
She's a good and entertaining player. Her top10 is really a delight to watch again and again, but still i think she's a bit overhyped, and she lacks consistency.

as a reminder here are her latest results from H2 2021

Olympics
3rd round (she got a bye for 1st and 2nd round as 9th seed)
vs Liu Jia 0-4

WTT Contender Tunis
vs Mostafavi 3-0
vs Bergstrom 3-1
vs Shao Jieni 3-0
vs Yang Xiaoxin 3-4

WTT Contender Lazko
vs Vovk 3-0
vs Zeng 0-3

WTTC Houston
vs Toliou 4-0
vs Kukulkova 4-0
vs Chen YS 4-2
vs Sun Yingsha 2-4

WTT finals
vs Wang Yidi 1-3

WTT Contender Muscat
vs Fan Siqi 1-3

WTT Smash Singapore
vs Jeger 3-0
vs Shao Jieni 3-1
vs Wang Manyu 0-3

I cannot say I'm impressed
You don't have to be impressed. Like I said, World Ranking is not based on one match, it is based on a weighted average of your best results. You are looking at what you want to focus on - you are skipping lots of wins and interesting matches played over the past year, from wins over the likes of Yu Mengyu of Singapore or Yu Fu of Portugal, players who give other players fits. Even the win of Chen YS is clearly a very strong win, but you see it as something that isn't impressive. All those losses are to strong Asian (usually Chinese) players.

We can agree to disagree on this one - the girl has her ranking and you clearly don't like her, just like some don't like Wong Chun Ting or Koki Niwa. It doesn't say anything about her level. No doubt she is not at the level of the Chinese or Japanese, but again, no one defined top 10 by beating the Chinese or Japanese. Well, that said, I know you think one has to be able to beat the Chinese to do well for Japan so I guess what we are looking at is different.

SFF_lib
03-29-2022, 11:47 AM
The Lebrun brothers will be the hope for France, probably the entire Europe. Excellent and well rounded techniques. Very high morale too

Takkyu_wa_inochi
03-29-2022, 01:47 PM
You don't have to be impressed. Like I said, World Ranking is not based on one match, it is based on a weighted average of your best results. You are looking at what you want to focus on - you are skipping lots of wins and interesting matches played over the past year, from wins over the likes of Yu Mengyu of Singapore or Yu Fu of Portugal, players who give other players fits. Even the win of Chen YS is clearly a very strong win, but you see it as something that isn't impressive. All those losses are to strong Asian (usually Chinese) players.

We can agree to disagree on this one - the girl has her ranking and you clearly don't like her, just like some don't like Wong Chun Ting or Koki Niwa. It doesn't say anything about her level. No doubt she is not at the level of the Chinese or Japanese, but again, no one defined top 10 by beating the Chinese or Japanese. Well, that said, I know you think one has to be able to beat the Chinese to do well for Japan so I guess what we are looking at is different.
i know you know, and pretend not knowing, but for those who don't, the full regulation for the WTT ranking is here
https://www.ittf.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/ITTF-Table-Tennis-World-Ranking-Regulation-20220130-1.pdf

continental cup gives 500 to the winner, while a QF participation is only 90 points. winner also is automatically qualified to World Cup which gives 50 points minimum.
continental champs is also 500 points

Diaz nearest rival is Bruna Takahashi ranked 31 (and probably overrated too), last Asian champs there were 4 top chinese players in semis... Even European level is more dense than North America or PanAm+South America (or Australia / Middle-Asia...)

Anyway, remind me in 1 year time, and lets look at her stats again. i think Diaz will be doing better than I expect if she manages to stay in top16
btw CHEN SY is currently ranked 27 and FU Yu 38. Personally I think Diaz ranking belongs to 17-32 bracket.

I'll be happy to be wrong and to watch some exciting performance of Diaz, but as a neutral observer, I have some reservations.

There are exceptions. The one continental player which is REALLY getting very good results recently is Quadri ARUNA. His (improved) punchy BH is a bit unusual at this level, but he's been very consistent with it.

PS
RatingsCentral ranks Diaz at 37
https://www.ratingscentral.com/ProPlayerList.php?PlayerGender=F

arlentan
03-29-2022, 03:11 PM
Why do they switch out broadcasts on T1?

Few matches with Adam + Side Angle + fancy product, few with corner angle + cheap replays.

It's so inconsistent. Shame they can't have the best of both too.

NextLevel
03-29-2022, 03:32 PM
i know you know, and pretend not knowing, but for those who don't, the full regulation for the WTT ranking is here
https://www.ittf.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/ITTF-Table-Tennis-World-Ranking-Regulation-20220130-1.pdf

continental cup gives 500 to the winner, while a QF participation is only 90 points. winner also is automatically qualified to World Cup which gives 50 points minimum.
continental champs is also 500 points

Diaz nearest rival is Bruna Takahashi ranked 31 (and probably overrated too), last Asian champs there were 4 top chinese players in semis... Even European level is more dense than North America or PanAm+South America (or Australia / Middle-Asia...)

Anyway, remind me in 1 year time, and lets look at her stats again. i think Diaz will be doing better than I expect if she manages to stay in top16
btw CHEN SY is currently ranked 27 and FU Yu 38. Personally I think Diaz ranking belongs to 17-32 bracket.

I'll be happy to be wrong and to watch some exciting performance of Diaz, but as a neutral observer, I have some reservations.

There are exceptions. The one continental player which is REALLY getting very good results recently is Quadri ARUNA. His (improved) punchy BH is a bit unusual at this level, but he's been very consistent with it.
This is another weird post. If we wanted to do rankings and China let all its top players play on tour, would Mima Ito be top 10?

Hugo has been #4 as a continental player benefitting from these extra point provisions and often falls short of his ranking though he has wins here and there. Quadri benefits from them as well, though he sometimes shares that benefit with Assar and while he sometimes outperforms his ranking, he sometimes falls short of it as well. Kanak benefits as well, and has defended his ranking multiple times, while also falling short of it on occasion. Bruna and Lily, same thing, sometimes falls short, but often benefits. But Adriana is clearly better than Lily and Bruna to me, I don't think about it anymore. Adriana will continue to get better as she plays against more good players on a consistent basis.

What makes this discussion all the more weird is that Diaz lost to Kihaara at 13, 10 and 9. The way you describe it, someone would think it was 3-0 with scores at 3,4 and 5.

Kihaara has played in higher level competitions than Diaz almost all her life and was a Japanese Champs runner up a few years ago and has been on the world stage for doubles. Other than maybe Polcanova, none of the top European ladies would be similarly competitive against Kihaara. Yet this is the reason why Diaz is not top 10?

Your opinion is okay. To me, it is obvious that when it comes to players outside Asia, Diaz is at the very top of that group. That is why to me it was obvious that since she plays Asian ladies reasonably well, that she can be top 10 in ranking. Top 10 in ranking doesn't mean that one is top 10 in *strength* all the time. But for me, if Diaz played in Europe, she could be the best lady player in Europe and that is enough. She is also young (21) so there is some development left. She is a very good player and she trains in Asia a lot, though she still has to get more and more competitive exposure which will continue to come with maturity and experience. Over time, her career trajectory will look more and more like Quadri, time permitting (with women, you never know).

Takkyu_wa_inochi
03-29-2022, 03:57 PM
This is another weird post. If we wanted to do rankings and China let all its top players play on tour, would Mima Ito be top 10?

Hugo has been #4 as a continental player benefitting from these extra point provisions and often falls short of his ranking though he has wins here and there. Quadri benefits from them as well, though he sometimes shares that benefit with Assar and while he sometimes outperforms his ranking, he sometimes falls short of it as well. Kanak benefits as well, and has defended his ranking multiple times, while also falling short of it on occasion. Bruna and Lily, same thing, sometimes falls short, but often benefits. But Adriana is clearly better than Lily and Bruna to me, I don't think about it anymore. Adriana will continue to get better as she plays against more good players on a consistent basis.

What makes this discussion all the more weird is that Diaz lost to Kihaara at 13, 10 and 9. The way you describe it, someone would think it was 3-0 with scores at 3,4 and 5.

Kihaara has played in higher level competitions than Diaz almost all her life and was a Japanese Champs runner up a few years ago and has been on the world stage for doubles. Other than maybe Polcanova, none of the top European ladies would be similarly competitive against Kihaara. Yet this is the reason why Diaz is not top 10?

Your opinion is okay. To me, it is obvious that when it comes to players outside Asia, Diaz is at the very top of that group. That is why to me it was obvious that since she plays Asian ladies reasonably well, that she can be top 10 in ranking. Top 10 in ranking doesn't mean that one is top 10 in *strength* all the time. But for me, if Diaz played in Europe, she could be the best lady player in Europe and that is enough. She is also young (21) so there is some development left. She is a very good player and she trains in Asia a lot, though she still has to get more and more competitive exposure which will continue to come with maturity and experience. Over time, her career trajectory will look more and more like Quadri, time permitting (with women, you never know).
i forgot Hugo, how could I ? yes Hugo deserves a good ranking, he's very consistent. he is RC 14

anyway, personally i think RatingsCentral gives a more accurate picture of the real strength of a given player than ITTF. its pure maths. The main complaint RC doesn't take into account the logic of overweighting the more important competitions and a win/loss against a given a player in a simple WTT open gets same effect than a win/loss against the same player at WTTC or Olympics.

and I agree also with u, Mima Ito would struggle to be top10, with all Chinese, but RC still gives her the 8th rank.

---
seriously if you are into sportsbetting, i strongly advise you to look at RC and not ITTF rankings, and i think that says it all.

pongfugrasshopper
03-29-2022, 04:24 PM
i forgot Hugo, how could I ? yes Hugo deserves a good ranking, he's very consistent. he is RC 14

anyway, personally i think RatingsCentral gives a more accurate picture of the real strength of a given player than ITTF. its pure maths. The main complaint RC doesn't take into account the logic of overweighting the more important competitions and a win/loss against a given a player in a simple WTT open gets same effect than a win/loss against the same player at WTTC or Olympics.

and I agree also with u, Mima Ito would struggle to be top10, with all Chinese, but RC still gives her the 8th rank.

---
seriously if you are into sportsbetting, i strongly advise you to look at RC and not ITTF rankings, and i think that says it all.
I'm not so sure it's true that Mima Ito would struggle to be in top 10 even with all Chinese. Outside of China's top 4, it's not clear she would necessarily lose to the others. If you go on ITTF's site and check out player's matches for Mima Ito, it shows she's had success against LSW, Fan Siqi, Qian Tianyi (whom she beat twice). Okay, I'll give you CXT, but her record outside the big 4 and CXT has actually been pretty good. No doubt she's got a lot to work to do being the focus of the CNT (and now her compatriots), but can't push her outta the top 10 just yet šŸ˜

NextLevel
03-29-2022, 04:48 PM
i forgot Hugo, how could I ? yes Hugo deserves a good ranking, he's very consistent. he is RC 14

anyway, personally i think RatingsCentral gives a more accurate picture of the real strength of a given player than ITTF. its pure maths. The main complaint RC doesn't take into account the logic of overweighting the more important competitions and a win/loss against a given a player in a simple WTT open gets same effect than a win/loss against the same player at WTTC or Olympics.

and I agree also with u, Mima Ito would struggle to be top10, with all Chinese, but RC still gives her the 8th rank.

---
seriously if you are into sportsbetting, i strongly advise you to look at RC and not ITTF rankings, and i think that says it all.
Sure, ITTF rankings are not perfect measures of strength, but we had that debate years ago about the value of encouraging participation with the current system and some of the merits of strength based ELO rankings (old system) vs points based tournament rankings (new system). Even with all the debate, I suspect few people would say that the top 3 players in the new system are not the top 3 players in the world, even if one can argue with things here and there. The continental issues in the new system are known and partly be design and they are even worse than you make out (Adriana will get points for winning her continental cup and then get points for playing in the World Cup, points that are not accessible to other players from her continent who didn't make the World Cup). But there are some positive values in encouraging continental competition even if the strength measures are distorted. I mean look at the last WTTC - if they had split the Chinese by strength into the draw like the women's team managed to do but the men's team could not, do you think Truls would have gotten to the finals?

The other thing is that sometimes, the performance based ranking beats the strength-based ranking when they do not agree. Quadri is an example of this. Many of the Chinese players would have ratings central rankings internally that are higher than Quadri. After all, he loses quite a few league and ITTF matches (see Lim Junghoon, who is also clearly strong).

For me, the ranking is the ranking. Here were my comments on mytt when the pairing came out of Kihaara and Diaz:

"Kihara is maybe the top 5 in Japan and she is pretty much guaranteed to beat #1 in North America. Hoping Diaz proves me wrong."

So no, I don't confuse strength with ranking. They are separate things. But I don't think Bruna or Lily will be top 10 in ranking. They don't do half as many things as well as Diaz does. When I said Diaz would be top 10, I was combining all the factors to say this. Many non-Asians look completely clueless when playing Asians. Diaz is not one of them and she has the capacity to improve.

Brs
03-29-2022, 05:15 PM
If NL is talking about top 10 WR and Takkyu about actual best ten players in the world then no wonder the conversation is useless except to kill time between sessions in Doha.

Unless you think another woman will take the continental champs away from Adriana then she has a good chance to stay in the top 10. That's the system.

If your point is that more than ten asian women are stronger than Diaz, well of course. What else is new?

pongfugrasshopper
03-29-2022, 05:37 PM
If NL is talking about top 10 WR and Takkyu about actual best ten players in the world then no wonder the conversation is useless except to kill time between sessions in Doha.

Unless you think another woman will take the continental champs away from Adriana then she has a good chance to stay in the top 10. That's the system.

If your point is that more than ten asian women are stronger than Diaz, well of course. What else is new?
Adriana Diaz is obviously a very good player as are Kasumi (#7), DHK (#8), FTW (#9), but staying in the top 10 for them is next to impossible if China continues to play players like CXT, LSW, Kuai Man, Fan Siqi, Zhang Rui, QTY. And I even think Kihara will make a run at the top 10.

Takkyu_wa_inochi
03-29-2022, 05:48 PM
well i'm saying, like on the stock market, her WR9 has all of it priced in. She can't get better than #1 on her continent.
Not only she's been well seeded, she's had rather lucky draws in recent big tournaments. looking at recent tournaments that ive listed, the highest ITTF rank player she won was CHEN SY WR27,
i can't remember whats her best career win, but i can't remember her winning even a WR16 player, perhaps even WR20

among her losses, YANG Xiaoxin WR20, ZENG Jian WR63
she also lost FAN Siqi WR52 ok she's Chinese but young and not yet invincible. FAN Siqi lost 2-3 to Miyu KATO in this tournament.

Lily ZHANG, another continental champ, dropped to WR36 but at least she can pride herself of a big win against Miu HIRANO and a 4th place finish at the World Cup. It now appears likely that will stay her best career performance. Her drop in rankings might reflect a drop of motivation. I don't recall Lily entering in top10 WR but thats a more memorable achievement IMO.

My reasoning is that given her true strength, and more participation from Chinese in WTT tournaments + end of Covid, Adriana WR will converge with her RC, and closer from a Lily ZHANG, than a DOO HoiKem. wanna bet ? remind me in 1 year....

Takkyu_wa_inochi
03-29-2022, 05:56 PM
I'm not so sure it's true that Mima Ito would struggle to be in top 10 even with all Chinese. Outside of China's top 4, it's not clear she would necessarily lose to the others. If you go on ITTF's site and check out player's matches for Mima Ito, it shows she's had success against LSW, Fan Siqi, Qian Tianyi (whom she beat twice). Okay, I'll give you CXT, but her record outside the big 4 and CXT has actually been pretty good. No doubt she's got a lot to work to do being the focus of the CNT (and now her compatriots), but can't push her outta the top 10 just yet šŸ˜
agreed, thats why shes RC 8 , can't complain. Just hope she can keep it or even improve again. Its tough, top Chinese seem not to be bothered anymore by her game. I can see very well that Mima keeps evolving and for example, she's been trying a lot of new serves this year, but it looks like its more confusing herself than her opponents.

pongfugrasshopper
03-29-2022, 05:57 PM
Another monkey in the wrench to consider is that the Initial Points is currently set at 20% the December 2020 points but will be revised lower and the temporary 16 month window (normally 12 month) is also stated to be revised before May 1. Right now, those initial points make up the bulk of a lot of players' points.

NextLevel
03-29-2022, 06:37 PM
well i'm saying, like on the stock market, her WR9 has all of it priced in. She can't get better than #1 on her continent.
Not only she's been well seeded, she's had rather lucky draws in recent big tournaments. looking at recent tournaments that ive listed, the highest ITTF rank player she won was CHEN SY WR27,
i can't remember whats her best career win, but i can't remember her winning even a WR16 player, perhaps even WR20

among her losses, YANG Xiaoxin WR20, ZENG Jian WR63
she also lost FAN Siqi WR52 ok she's Chinese but young and not yet invincible. FAN Siqi lost 2-3 to Miyu KATO in this tournament.

Lily ZHANG, another continental champ, dropped to WR36 but at least she can pride herself of a big win against Miu HIRANO and a 4th place finish at the World Cup. It now appears likely that will stay her best career performance. Her drop in rankings might reflect a drop of motivation. I don't recall Lily entering in top10 WR but thats a more memorable achievement IMO.

My reasoning is that given her true strength, and more participation from Chinese in WTT tournaments + end of Covid, Adriana WR will converge with her RC, and closer from a Lily ZHANG, than a DOO HoiKem. wanna bet ? remind me in 1 year....

Okay. 1 year later, we can discuss,

OldUser
03-29-2022, 09:19 PM
The only one valid ranking system is the ELO one, as it has been introduced in Chess first, an individual sport too, it should be introduced in any other sports like Tennis or Table Tennis. what we see here is the limits of the WTT system modeled on the ATP one. We all know it's unfair.

When our french-japanese friend here Takkyu complaints about the Continental tournaments giving too much free points, how about talking about Alexis Lebrun who only jumped 5 places from 359 to 354 this week ? He's beaten top 50 guys, got to a semi of a Contender and this is all that he gets.

About Cheng I.C., Yuan J.N. has proven that you can still be competitive at 36 and even beat way younger players like ... Mima Ito. Despite being ranked way over the top 50 at that time.

Is the ranking system wrong ? of course it is.

Is it favoring the "litlle TT nations"? of course, cos' Mr Liu G.L. does not want to be seen has a dictator, even if all the WTT partners and sponsors are actually chinese, even if the HQ is in Singapore, the kind of chinese riviera or cote d'azur. It's like living in Saint Tropez for them. They're already renaming the western players in the chinese tradition: Alexandre Cassin is now Alexandre C., Alvaro Robles is now Alvaro R. when they play in doubles.

If it was an ELO rating system, you would see the members of the CNT all ranked in the TOP 100 at least, that would mean at least 50% of the rankings would be owned by China. You would see only chinese players entering the draws, and as the PRC takes 65% of their chinese players gains, I let you imagine what the ITTF would do, or the German federation....

...

Wait

They already tried, and we all know what happened.

Don't expect anything reliable from the WTT as it is ruled by China.

OldUser
03-29-2022, 09:28 PM
Just a view on the FIDE ELO rankings: 39 players in the TOP 100 are from ex Soviet Union Republics. 21 from Russia only! and nobody complains.

If you want a faithful representation of what a sport ranking should be, there you get it:
https://ratings.fide.com/top_lists.phtml

Dominikk85
03-29-2022, 10:59 PM
Obviously the world ranking doesn't reflect true strength especially with the women.

There probably would be 30 chinese in the women top50 but they are not sent to international tournaments to collect points.

NextLevel
03-29-2022, 11:00 PM
Adriana Diaz is obviously a very good player as are Kasumi (#7), DHK (#8), FTW (#9), but staying in the top 10 for them is next to impossible if China continues to play players like CXT, LSW, Kuai Man, Fan Siqi, Zhang Rui, QTY. And I even think Kihara will make a run at the top 10.
Actually, with her continental points, not really for Adriana. And with her quality of play, all she has to be is roughly a top 20 player by strength, which she obviously would be if she played in Europe. While Kihara is young and will improve, I think Adriana played very well against her. My main point here is that Adriana is not so far below DHK etc. right now that she shouldn't be able to beat some of them at some point in the future. Of course, I could be entirely wrong about this, so time will tell.

NextLevel
03-29-2022, 11:05 PM
The only one valid ranking system is the ELO one, as it has been introduced in Chess first, an individual sport too, it should be introduced in any other sports like Tennis or Table Tennis. what we see here is the limits of the WTT system modeled on the ATP one. We all know it's unfair.

When our french-japanese friend here Takkyu complaints about the Continental tournaments giving too much free points, how about talking about Alexis Lebrun who only jumped 5 places from 359 to 354 this week ? He's beaten top 50 guys, got to a semi of a Contender and this is all that he gets.

About Cheng I.C., Yuan J.N. has proven that you can still be competitive at 36 and even beat way younger players like ... Mima Ito. Despite being ranked way over the top 50 at that time.

Is the ranking system wrong ? of course it is.

Is it favoring the "litlle TT nations"? of course, cos' Mr Liu G.L. does not want to be seen has a dictator, even if all the WTT partners and sponsors are actually chinese, even if the HQ is in Singapore, the kind of chinese riviera or cote d'azur. It's like living in Saint Tropez for them. They're already renaming the western players in the chinese tradition: Alexandre Cassin is now Alexandre C., Alvaro Robles is now Alvaro R. when they play in doubles.

If it was an ELO rating system, you would see the members of the CNT all ranked in the TOP 100 at least, that would mean at least 50% of the rankings would be owned by China. You would see only chinese players entering the draws, and as the PRC takes 65% of their chinese players gains, I let you imagine what the ITTF would do, or the German federation....

...

Wait

They already tried, and we all know what happened.

Don't expect anything reliable from the WTT as it is ruled by China.

We have discussed these issues extensively in the past - you can search for the threads if you want to learn why these are not the whole story. Chess to introduce excitement and randomness has largely resorted to shorter and shorter time limits (sound familiar to anyone?) Measuring player strength accurately is not everything.

Dominikk85
03-29-2022, 11:11 PM
Just a view on the FIDE ELO rankings: 39 players in the TOP 100 are from ex Soviet Union Republics. 21 from Russia only! and nobody complains.

If you want a faithful representation of what a sport ranking should be, there you get it:
https://ratings.fide.com/top_lists.phtml
Nobody cares about chess. An elo rating might be more objective but it leads to the chinese hiding their players, just training all year and then killing the euros at the worlds.

The new system forces the Chinese to play more tournaments (similar to tennis world ranking) and give the others a chance to adjust.

So far the success is limited but at least the second fiddle chinese sometimes lose to non chinese.

Table tennis needs a world tour like tennis with all the stars showing up regularly.

Dr Evil
03-30-2022, 12:21 AM
Nobody cares about chess.
šŸ¤£ Tell that to the 600 million chess players. It's the most popular game in the world, and just now finishing one the most exciting grand prix series in recent memory.

Takkyu_wa_inochi
03-30-2022, 01:35 AM
The only one valid ranking system is the ELO one, as it has been introduced in Chess first, an individual sport too, it should be introduced in any other sports like Tennis or Table Tennis. what we see here is the limits of the WTT system modeled on the ATP one. We all know it's unfair.

When our french-japanese friend here Takkyu complaints about the Continental tournaments giving too much free points, how about talking about Alexis Lebrun who only jumped 5 places from 359 to 354 this week ? He's beaten top 50 guys, got to a semi of a Contender and this is all that he gets.

About Cheng I.C., Yuan J.N. has proven that you can still be competitive at 36 and even beat way younger players like ... Mima Ito. Despite being ranked way over the top 50 at that time.

Is the ranking system wrong ? of course it is.

Is it favoring the "litlle TT nations"? of course, cos' Mr Liu G.L. does not want to be seen has a dictator, even if all the WTT partners and sponsors are actually chinese, even if the HQ is in Singapore, the kind of chinese riviera or cote d'azur. It's like living in Saint Tropez for them. They're already renaming the western players in the chinese tradition: Alexandre Cassin is now Alexandre C., Alvaro Robles is now Alvaro R. when they play in doubles.

If it was an ELO rating system, you would see the members of the CNT all ranked in the TOP 100 at least, that would mean at least 50% of the rankings would be owned by China. You would see only chinese players entering the draws, and as the PRC takes 65% of their chinese players gains, I let you imagine what the ITTF would do, or the German federation....

...

Wait

They already tried, and we all know what happened.

Don't expect anything reliable from the WTT as it is ruled by China.
well rightly RatingsCentral says currently the highest rated French player is Alexis Lebrun ranked 39, Gauzy is 66 and Lebesson 72. I say its fairly accurate
Please note that RC also gives a STD error, so using the width of the STD, you can see how they see their margin of error in their estimate (a classic statistical tool). ofc the deeper you go in the rankings, the wider the error in terms of # of rank positions. Ranking should naturally be seen with a log scale.

I agree with other comments that Tour points have merits, its encouraging players to show up in tournaments, especially the more important ones. This has coincided with seeing more Chinese players but not sure this is the cause. If you like to see more Chinese players, complain to WTT which impose quotas of participations per country to all their events. Not only the Chinese but Japanese (and maybe Koreans etc...) are not happy about that. They have many players who'd like to participate more often. The Japanese has condemned it and thats why they changed their methods of selecting players for world events, taking more into consideration internal trials (PS. i don't think they got it right for their internal point system), just like Chinese and Koreans have been doing.

So Tour points are maybe necessary, they are the ones who should be used for determining who plays in WTT tour finals at the end of the year, but I don't think they should be used for seeding for ALL events. remember Wimbledon does their own seedings regardless of ATP point rankings ? And furthermore, let's not pretend tour points are the accurate description of players strengths, RatingsCentral is. I do remember there used to be a time when both a tour point system and ELO type ranking were used in Tennis.

i'm really tired when Bobrow or other commentators say for example, we have a HUUUUGE upset because LIU Dingshuo WR 120 beats Quadri ARUNA WR14 at Oman. According to RC, LDS is 18 and ARUNA 30 and thats how you should bet at the bookies.

Its also really a pity MA Long and XU Xin couldn't make it to Houston because of quotas. ITTF should at least have given MA Long an invitation, really a shame.

pongfugrasshopper
03-30-2022, 02:14 AM
Actually, with her continental points, not really for Adriana. And with her quality of play, all she has to be is roughly a top 20 player by strength, which she obviously would be if she played in Europe. While Kihara is young and will improve, I think Adriana played very well against her. My main point here is that Adriana is not so far below DHK etc. right now that she shouldn't be able to beat some of them at some point in the future. Of course, I could be entirely wrong about this, so time will tell.
It's hard to say. I don't think the Continental advantage is that insurmountable. Already we've seen in the Contender Doha event that WR#8-#13 got knocked out early even before the QF. I can see someone like LSW or CXT winning or at least making the Finals of one or more Star Contender events. The point differential between Star Contender Winner (600 pts) vs. say R16 (55 pts) makes up for 1 of the Continental tournament advantages. But I really don't know if that's a goal for the CNT. The Feeder and Contender in Doha was all China and Japan in WS. The current Star Contender is seeing a bit more variety (maybe mental exhaustion of China/Japan playing 3 tournaments in a row?). And then there are names I haven't even mentioned yet like Shin Yubin, Miu Hirano, and X factor Miwa Harimoto whose rise has been meteoric. The level of competition is just really, really high in WS. Whether she remains in the top 10 or not, nothing can take away what Adriana Diaz, the pride of Puerto Rico, has already accomplished.

Takkyu_wa_inochi
03-30-2022, 02:23 AM
going back to the tournament, ARUNA is on fire, he's taken his revenge from LIU Dingshuo, and now has beaten ZHAO Zihao.
well you'll see ARUNA's RC rating adjust quickly after those 2 performances against higher rated players...

I have watched ARUNA yet not at this tournament (busy these days), but the previous one, and he has really improved a lot on the BH side, agressive punch/ block style mainly used. He's a beast physically still with one of the most destructive FH. And now he's getting good results, his opponents are getting scared, and he's getting more and more confident ! He's really the in-form player and the one to watch.

SFF_lib
03-30-2022, 04:57 AM
I really like Aruna. He once said he will keep playing table tennis until he can't play anymore. What a passion!! Admirable athlete dedicated to a sport šŸ‘ šŸ‘ šŸ‘

At 33 of age, running around in that range is a challenge. I hope he can keep on performing at that level for long.

Gozo
03-30-2022, 05:49 AM
going back to the tournament, ARUNA is on fire, he's taken his revenge from LIU Dingshuo, and now has beaten ZHAO Zihao.
well you'll see ARUNA's RC rating adjust quickly after those 2 performances against higher rated players...

I have watched ARUNA yet not at this tournament (busy these days), but the previous one, and he has really improved a lot on the BH side, agressive punch/ block style mainly used. He's a beast physically still with one of the most destructive FH. And now he's getting good results, his opponents are getting scared, and he's getting more and more confident ! He's really the in-form player and the one to watch.
Take a look at my avatar! šŸ˜‰

I see a great and I recognise it instantly.

JeffM
03-30-2022, 06:12 AM
I really like Aruna. He once said he will keep playing table tennis until he can't play anymore. What a passion!! Admirable athlete dedicated to a sport šŸ‘ šŸ‘ šŸ‘

At 33 of age, running around in that range is a challenge. I hope he can keep on performing at that level for long.
Aruna is a great role model in many ways.
Despite not having a conventional forehand, he is excelling with his uniquie forehand along with his althetism. Just shows that you don't have to have the 'Chinese' technique to be excellent in table tennis. While he may not reach world no 1, it should offer amateurs relief that they can still excel with an unconventional technique.

Looking forward to his match against Zhou Qi Hao.

Takkyu_wa_inochi
03-30-2022, 06:17 AM
Aruna is a great role model in many ways.
Despite not having a conventional forehand, he is excelling with his uniquie forehand along with his althetism. Just shows that you don't have to have the 'Chinese' technique to be excellent in table tennis. While he may not reach world no 1, it should offer amateurs relief that they can still excel with an unconventional technique.

Looking forward to his match against Zhou Qi Hao.
If you're looking for a coach with unconventional technique, look at my coach !

yeh but I agree, sometimes you just look at Aruna FH he looks clumsy, but when you look at the ball he's just hit, its just wow...

Gozo
03-30-2022, 06:30 AM
If you're looking for a coach with unconventional technique, look at my coach !

yeh but I agree, sometimes you just look at Aruna FH he looks clumsy, but when you look at the ball he's just hit, its just wow...
That is why Aruna is such an enigma. In the world of TT, we have the chinese FH, then the european FH and perhaps we are seeing the emergence of the 3rd type: Wakanda FH.

Michael Zhuang
03-30-2022, 06:33 AM
Love Aruna. His Forehand is like Nadal or Pete Sampras forehand. He swings above his head.

Is Liu still playing with Yinhe V14 Pro?

JeffM
03-30-2022, 12:10 PM
Disclaimer: I have not been able to watch the live matches.
Looking at the draw results, Aruna has beaten Zhou Qi Hao, meaning he has beaten 3 Chinese players this tournament! This meant there are no more Chinese players left on the Men's draw as Xu Fei has also been knocked out by Andrej Gacina.

On a different note: LYJ has been knocked out by Lim Jonghooon. LYJ doesn't seem to be as active as before, appears more tired, and at times frustrated with his own performance.

Now the draw is completely freed up for non-Chinese players!

NextLevel
03-30-2022, 12:20 PM
Aruna is a great role model in many ways.
Despite not having a conventional forehand, he is excelling with his uniquie forehand along with his althetism. Just shows that you don't have to have the 'Chinese' technique to be excellent in table tennis. While he may not reach world no 1, it should offer amateurs relief that they can still excel with an unconventional technique.

Looking forward to his match against Zhou Qi Hao.
It is a technically correct forehand though, mostly powered by the legs, with good leverage and forearm snap and largely topspin focused, maybe with a bit more back muscle action to take advantage of Quadri's strengths. I say that not because I really want to argue with you, but because I want to stress that unconventional technique is not the same as incorrect technique, and the latter is what amateurs need to avoid.

Takkyu_wa_inochi
03-30-2022, 12:37 PM
No Chinese player in singles semis, both men and women, when was that last seen??? (when there were so many on the starting line !)

a lot of non-Chinese top players weren't there as well, so its difficult to explain ! The world has finally catched up with China B and C teams, or was that the C and D teams ?

OldUser
03-30-2022, 01:21 PM
We have discussed these issues extensively in the past - you can search for the threads if you want to learn why these are not the whole story. Chess to introduce excitement and randomness has largely resorted to shorter and shorter time limits (sound familiar to anyone?) Measuring player strength accurately is not everything.
Look the FIDE rankings: there are 3 different ones for each kind of time limits, Standard being the typical 2h/2h limit (with numbers of moves varying from 30 to the typical 40 ones according to each tournament: no less than those number in the 2h limit), Rapid (20 mn, the most used time limit worldwide for amateurs) and Blitz, the well known NYC/Boston outdoor parks time limit. Bertween those 3 different rankings there are huge variations sometimes: Magnus Carlsen is still number 2 in Rapid and Blitz, but Nakamura jumps from the 13th rank from Standard time to the 1st one in Blitz, because with covid he wasn't able and allowed to play more in IRL competitions, so he competed in official online blitz tournaments, with Maxime Vachier Lagrave being blitz world champion in the official IRL World Championship Hikaru is still ranked nĀ°1, and to me that makes sense (also because Magnus Carlsen sometimes do not take online blitz games seriously, he loves playing while being drunk hahaha).

I mean... you can't do better and fairer system than this one.

NextLevel
03-30-2022, 01:23 PM
No Chinese player in singles semis, both men and women, when was that last seen??? (when there were so many on the starting line !)

a lot of non-Chinese top players weren't there as well, so its difficult to explain ! The world has finally catched up with China B and C teams, or was that the C and D teams ?

Yeah. I noticed low-level (# 27) Chen Szu Yu just beat Zhang Rui. Is she now top 10? Or are you still of the opinion that Adriana's win over CSY at the WTTC was jet lag and means next to nothing?

NextLevel
03-30-2022, 01:30 PM
Look the FIDE rankings: there are 3 different ones for each kind of time limits, Standard being the typical 2h/2h limit (with numbers of moves varying from 30 to the typical 40 ones according to each tournament: no less than those number in the 2h limit), Rapid (20 mn, the most used time limit worldwide for amateurs) and Blitz, the well known NYC/Boston outdoor parks time limit. Bertween those 3 different rankings there are huge variations sometimes: Magnus Carlsen is still number 2 in Rapid and Blitz, but Nakamura jumps from the 13th rank from Standard time to the 1st one in Blitz, because with covid he wasn't able and allowed to play more in IRL competitions, so he competed in official online blitz tournaments, with Maxime Vachier Lagrave being blitz world champion in the official IRL World Championship Hikaru is still ranked nĀ°1, and to me that makes sense (also because Magnus Carlsen sometimes do not take online blitz games seriously, he loves playing while being drunk hahaha).

I mean... you can't do better and fairer system than this one.
This is a very selective view of things. Why do they use Blitz matches to decide more and more things now in classical tournaments when blitz used to be the pariah of chess? Why are they using time controls with less increments in standard time controls in order to control the length of matches? You may or may not be old enough to remember when adjournments and resumption in chess were the norm, now they virtually do not exist in chess.

My point is that a balance must always be struck between a form of perfect "strength measurement" and requiring "performance and participation" and finally "entertainment", since sports to be successful needs to be entertaining.

Even now, Fabiano Cuarana is now working really hard on his blitz and bullet skills because after match Carlsen in regular time controls, he got blown off the board in the rapid/blitz tiebreakers. My point is that we can carry the emphasis on one type of strength measurement too far when one can think of the current system as trying to find the balance between more competing goals. Chess just does it differently from table tennis. We don't have one game tournaments in table tennis for example.

OldUser
03-30-2022, 01:34 PM
Zhang Rui has never more than ranked 53 in 2018, means something in the top 30 as she's chinese and not allowed to play as many tournaments as she'd like to. Add some pandemic and covid restrictions to that and you'll understand why she was poor ranked. To me they all 3 belong to that 20-30 WTT rankings area, but not much indeed. The 11 points format allows for some variations in W/L ratios between the same opponents, the 21 pts one at least showed who was really the best.

OldUser
03-30-2022, 01:42 PM
This is a very selective view of things. Why do they use Blitz matches to decide more and more things now in classical tournaments when blitz used to be the pariah of chess? Why are they using time controls with less increments in standard time controls in order to control the length of matches? You may or may not be old enough to remember when adjournments and resumption in chess were the norm, now they virtually do not exist in chess.

My point is that a balance must always be struck between a form of perfect "strength measurement" and requiring "performance and participation" and finally "entertainment", since sports to be successful needs to be entertaining.

Even now, Fabiano Cuarana is now working really hard on his blitz and bullet skills because after match Carlsen in regular time controls, he got blown off the board in the rapid/blitz tiebreakers. My point is that we can carry the emphasis on one type of strength measurement too far when one can think of the current system as trying to find the balance between more competing goals. Chess just does it differently from table tennis. We don't have one game tournaments in table tennis for example.
I'm 49 and played official tournaments in the adjournaments era dude... and it was freaking stupid, it was also unfair because you were finishing your adjournaments sometimes past midnight and then had to start the next morning at 8 AM !!!

No seriously, it's a good consensus, some competitions were ending sometimes 1 even 2 days after the "official" end of the tournament. And most of the time it was the "little" players who were fighting in ADJ mode to gain some points, but the top ranked one never ADJ before the last round, they prefered agreed to do some perpetual moves and end the fight in a draw. So at least the blitz ending system forces them to fully play. It's equity for the poor ranked players.

NextLevel
03-30-2022, 01:46 PM
I'm 49 and played official tournaments in the adjournaments era dude... and it was freaking stupid, it was also unfair because you were finishing your adjounaments sometimes past midnight and then had to start the next morning at 8 AM !!!

No seriously, it's a good consensus, some competitions were ending sometimes 1 even 2 days after the "official" end of the tournament. And most of the time it was the "little" players who were fighting in ADJ mode to gain some points, but the top ranked one never ADJ before the last round, they prefered agreed to do some perpetual moves and end the fight in a draw. So at least the blitz ending system forces them to fully play. It's equity for the poor ranked players.
Yeah, but the strongest player is more often revealed by the longest time control, no? We should be playing best of 7 not best of 5. No, we should be playing 21 point games not 11 point games?

I am just trying to understand how you square these kinds of tradeoffs with making statements about how ranking systems or scoring that maximize your preferred strength measurement approach are objectively the "best" and not simply a preference based on focusing on some things over other things that might be equally important.

NextLevel
03-30-2022, 01:50 PM
Zhang Rui has never more than ranked 53 in 2018, means something in the top 30 as she's chinese and not allowed to play as many tournaments as she'd like to. Add some pandemic and covid restrictions to that and you'll understand why she was poor ranked. To me they all 3 belong to that 20-30 WTT rankings area, but not much indeed. The 11 points format allows for some variations in W/L ratios between the same opponents, the 21 pts one at least showed who was really the best.
Ah okay. It is cool that someone's ranking 4 years ago impacts your perspective more strongly that her play and RC rating in 2022. You have a lower opinion of her than I do. My point though is that this is why we play the matches and it is easy to put too much into strength measurement without balancing it with the stress of performance, especially when people are allowed to choose when to perform and are not forced to perform on demand, as the current points format largely forces them to.

TTOmar
03-30-2022, 01:54 PM
Never seen something unpredicted SF lineup in Men's Single before.

OldUser
03-30-2022, 01:59 PM
Yeah, but the strongest player is more often revealed by the longest time control, no? We should be playing best of 7 not best of 5. No, we should be playing 21 point games not 11 point games?

I am just trying to understand how you square these kinds of tradeoffs with making statements about how ranking systems or scoring that maximize your preferred strength measurement approach are objectively the "best" and not simply a preference based on focusing on some things over other things that might be equally important.
Nope, the stronger player is revealed by his deeper calculations, simple as that. Recently MVL has been lost in a spanish opening, his "madeleine de proust" because he didn't worked deeply enough on a single move the blacks opponent did. These guys work with their coaches prior to the match, when they have the whites it's easy to dictate the opening. MVL did a poor anticipation training with his coach, he didn't calculte deeply enough.

Hikaru Nakamura is the best in Blitz because he calculates deeper than the other in a short amount of time, but that does not mean he will calculate deeper with more minutes in his pockets. In that game, Carlsen shows he's the one who can calculate deeper than anyone, as Kasparov used to. (Kasparov has been Carlsen's coach for some times...)

NextLevel
03-30-2022, 02:07 PM
Nope, the stronger player is revealed by his deeper calculations, simple as that. Recently MVL has been lost in a spanish opening, his "madeleine de proust" because he didn't worked deeply enough on a single move the blacks opponent did. These guys work with their coaches prior to the match, when they have the whites it's easy to dictate the opening. MVL did a poor anticipation training with his coach, he didn't calculte deeply enough.

Hikaru Nakamura is the best in Blitz because he calculates deeper than the other in a short amount of time, but that does not mean he will calculate deeper with more minutes in his pockets. In that game, Carlsen shows he's the one who can calculate deeper than anyone, as Kasparov used to. (Kasparov has been Carlsen's coach for some times...)

Since this isn't a chess forum, I will let you have the last word on this. It has been shown many times, that Carlsen' superpower isn't so much his calculation but his ability to evaluate positions more quickly than others based on nuances that others may not value as heavily.

Takkyu_wa_inochi
03-30-2022, 02:09 PM
Yeah. I noticed low-level (# 27) Chen Szu Yu just beat Zhang Rui. Is she now top 10? Or are you still of the opinion that Adriana's win over CSY at the WTTC was jet lag and means next to nothing?
Ranking only is a number you get from all existing past information. the beauty of RC Elo system, is that when new info (= new match results come in), RC ratings adjusts. Thats the Bayesian way of thinking. Very recommended if you want to win at poker, sportsbetting or stock market or make scientific predictions

If a player suddenly improves, it takes a few tournaments and wins to converge to the new level. there is also the uncertainty margin to take into consideration.

As for Adriana, her WR is inflated compared to her actual level and her WR will go down very logically from 9-16 to 17-32
CHEN YS, DIAZ, ZHANG Rui should be in the same bracket i believe (17-32)

Remind me in 1 year.

NextLevel
03-30-2022, 02:17 PM
Ranking only is a number you get from all existing past information. the beauty of RC Elo system, is that when new info (= new match results come in), RC ratings adjusts. Thats the Bayesian way of thinking. Very recommended if you want to win at poker, sportsbetting or stock market or make scientific predictions

If a player suddenly improves, it takes a few tournaments and wins to converge to the new level. there is also the uncertainty margin to take into consideration.

As for Adriana, her WR is inflated compared to her actual level and her WR will go down very logically from 9-16 to 17-32
CHEN YS, DIAZ, ZHANG Rui should be in the same bracket i believe (17-32)

Remind me in 1 year.
Just to be clear, you have factored Diaz's continental advantages and potential for improvement into all this? Don't want a revisionist history in a year's time (assuming no injury/pregancy etc.)

OldUser
03-30-2022, 02:23 PM
It has been shown that Nakamura has beaten Carlsen in blitz many times, and that refutes your opinion.

You don't think the same in either standard or Blitz game, Blitz is more in the "autopilot" area, you should look at some funny faces in online blitz games with Etienne Bacrot when he facepalms after doing a terrible move he would have never done with more time and in a different mood.

That's why it's possible to see some HUGE surprises in that 11 pts format in TT that you would have never seen in the old format.

I think the right move would be to transition to the Volley-Ball system: 25 pts per set, and then at 2 sets a 15 pts tie break, shorter enough and long enough to see some come backs...

The 21 pts regular game, 1 game all and then 11pts tie break would have been awesome to me, or 2/2 with 21 pts each game and then tie break 11 pts in the 5 th game for the SF and F matches, the 5 or 6 pts they do sometimes is stupid, it's way too short. It's like playing bullet in chess (1 mn/1 mn).

OldUser
03-30-2022, 02:36 PM
šŸ¤£ Tell that to the 600 million chess players. It's the most popular game in the world, and just now finishing one the most exciting grand prix series in recent memory.
Maaan, those ups and downs every day between MVL, Wesley So and Vishy Anand hahaha it's good to see Ricky Rapport at that level, very refreshing to see how a challenger can make it happen ! yeah we should open a chess thread for instance...

Takkyu_wa_inochi
03-30-2022, 03:00 PM
I think she has room to improve her RC from 39 to 17-32 , and her WR will fall in that range as well. both will converge.

some asian players will have retired, making room for her, but maybe some others will sneak in as well. I think also she won't be that lucky in her next draws, earning her some early exits. she should logically keep her continental title. it would be a disaster for her to lose it to Takahashi or someone else or simply to be injured at that time.

NextLevel
03-30-2022, 03:02 PM
It has been shown that Nakamura has beaten Carlsen in blitz many times, and that refutes your opinion.

You don't think the same in either standard or Blitz game, Blitz is more in the "autopilot" area, you should look at some funny faces in online blitz games with Etienne Bacrot when he facepalms after doing a terrible move he would have never done with more time and in a different mood.

That's why it's possible to see some HUGE surprises in that 11 pts format in TT that you would have never seen in the old format.

I think the right move would be to transition to the Volley-Ball system: 25 pts per set, and then at 2 sets a 15 pts tie break, shorter enough and long enough to see some come backs...

The 21 pts regular game, 1 game all and then 11pts tie break would have been awesome to me, or 2/2 with 21 pts each game and then tie break 11 pts in the 5 th game for the SF and F matches, the 5 or 6 pts they do sometimes is stupid, it's way too short. It's like playing bullet in chess (1 mn/1 mn).
"Many Times". Since you love "Bayesian analysis", which is based on probabilities and not absolute claims, you should post about Nakamura's success vs Carlsen at all time controls in terms of probabilities and expectations. And there is a difference between saying "calculation is all that matters" and that "a player's superpower isn't calculation, but evaluation". Do you have an Elo? You seem to make a lot of confident claims about very complicated topics.

Takkyu_wa_inochi
03-30-2022, 03:29 PM
i am only a recreational chess player with an online rating but i have a masters degree in statistics, although that was several decades ago, and i've not been using much of it in my job. If Ratings were the truth they would never adjust. its just an assessment, with very well defined rules. Then you can post your own priors or biases so you can position yourself vs those numbers.

Manto76
03-30-2022, 04:13 PM
Great to see Aruna looking so strong at the business-end of the competition! His next match against Jonghoon should be very entertaining - they're both such powerful hitters. Jonghoon probably has a more 'complete' game, but if Aruna is on form with his forehand he can take it.

Takkyu_wa_inochi
03-30-2022, 04:44 PM
it would be a pity if Aruna doesn't win this tournament after beating 3 Chinese. This tournament MUST be his

NextLevel
03-30-2022, 05:33 PM
i am only a recreational chess player with an online rating but i have a masters degree in statistics, although that was several decades ago, and i've not been using much of it in my job. If Ratings were the truth they would never adjust. its just an assessment, with very well defined rules. Then you can post your own priors or biases so you can position yourself vs those numbers.
I have my own engineering and analytics background (no masters in Statistics though too many courses). But I watch too much online chess and in blitz chess, one can think of Nakamura and Carlsen as being a version (and this is not a perfect analogy) of Fan Zhendong VS Ma Long where you know that both are all time greats at what they do, but one has a significantly winning record over the other in all kinds of matches which you can obscure by pointing out that Fan has *many* wins over Ma Long. That was all I was trying to say.

NextLevel
03-30-2022, 05:34 PM
it would be a pity if Aruna doesn't win this tournament after beating 3 Chinese. This tournament MUST be his
Well he needs to "revenge" Lim Junghoon first. If he does that, I can see him being a clear favorite over both Gacina and Karlsson, but Gacina looks extremely solid in this tournament and Karlsson played him tough in Houston (which I watched live). Regardless, this has been an Aruna tournament for the ages.

SFF_lib
03-30-2022, 09:59 PM
Aruna is a great role model in many ways.
Despite not having a conventional forehand, he is excelling with his uniquie forehand along with his althetism. Just shows that you don't have to have the 'Chinese' technique to be excellent in table tennis. While he may not reach world no 1, it should offer amateurs relief that they can still excel with an unconventional technique.

Looking forward to his match against Zhou Qi Hao.
I really don't care his fh technique. I like Aruna for his attitude - never give up. Despite his age and body shape, he does a lot of risky shot. He compensates it by running around the court. Aruna is my favourite after Xu Xin. Two very entertaining tt players

SFF_lib
03-30-2022, 10:01 PM
it would be a pity if Aruna doesn't win this tournament after beating 3 Chinese. This tournament MUST be his
I agree I really want to see Aruna take the trophy!!

SFF_lib
03-31-2022, 09:46 AM
Han came back 2-2 from 0-2. Lots of entertaining points.

SFF_lib
03-31-2022, 10:17 AM
Amazing comeback from Han Ying!!

NextLevel
03-31-2022, 10:31 AM
Amazing comeback from Han Ying!!
Good comeback, but not sure it is amazing when the attacker doesn't make you move to the ball or reach for the ball and never pushes it short. Maybe she truly attacked Han Ying's middle a few times.

SFF_lib
03-31-2022, 10:55 AM
Good comeback, but not sure it is amazing when the attacker doesn't make you move to the ball or reach for the ball and never pushes it short. Maybe she truly attacked Han Ying's middle a few times.
Good point.

I must say Kato was running out of steam after the 3rd game. The quality of her attacks just went downhill

Lula
03-31-2022, 11:17 AM
Karlsson injuried?

JeffM
03-31-2022, 11:36 AM
Karlsson injuried?
https://twitter.com/WTTGlobal/status/1509477112645931014?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

NextLevel
03-31-2022, 12:13 PM
Lim Junghoon too good off the bounce - Quadri can't play at that speed close to the table so he had to try something else but doesn't quite have the skillset.

yoass
03-31-2022, 12:33 PM
Such a shame Kristian had to forfeit. He seemed to be in such a good flow, playing well and showing mental strength like never before.

NextLevel
03-31-2022, 12:46 PM
Such a shame Kristian had to forfeit. He seemed to be in such a good flow, playing well and showing mental strength like never before.
I very much agree - it is sad to see someone playing so well and getting injured.

Takkyu_wa_inochi
03-31-2022, 02:54 PM
The trench battle was too fierce, and HAN Ying got injured. KIHARA takes the singles title, after taking the doubles !
what a performance !

arlentan
03-31-2022, 04:42 PM
Man who would have expected Gacina to make it this far, let alone win the tournament! I really thought Lim was gonna take the final.

On the other hand, China's probably watching this whole tournament unfold regretting their A-team withdrawals šŸ˜‚

Shows how diverse the sport can be if the top Chinese guns aren't playing; and perhaps the reality of the future if the B-team Chinese don't step up? Apart from WCQ, no one else in his generation is a consistent threat to foreign players, at least compared to FZD when he was their age.

SFF_lib
04-01-2022, 12:34 AM
Gacina is amazing in this tournament. No specific weakness. Another champion using Viscaria Gold

OldUser
04-01-2022, 01:49 AM
"Many Times". Since you love "Bayesian analysis", which is based on probabilities and not absolute claims, you should post about Nakamura's success vs Carlsen at all time controls in terms of probabilities and expectations. And there is a difference between saying "calculation is all that matters" and that "a player's superpower isn't calculation, but evaluation". Do you have an Elo? You seem to make a lot of confident claims about very complicated topics.
My reply in the chess thread, no need to do more off-topic here.

Congrats to Manu and Jia-Nan for the mixed doubles by the way ! seems that the new receive tactic by Jia Nan with her short pips on FH has caused too much trouble to Lin Y.J. She has also many times surprised him with some nice BH loops down the line. 36 years old, Gacina 35... that's table tennis: no need to be that young or mega-fit to perform at a high level ;-)