Road to Tokyo 2020: Chinese TT Team

For those who think both LSW and DN will play singles at the Tokyo Olympic, you’re missing a key point. In all previous Games since Seoul 1988, there was never a real threat to women’s gold metal. CNT selected players mainly based on overall performance and experience for big tournaments. This time around, however, that little girl by the name of Ito has almost single handedly unnerved the whole CNT establishment. They can’t afford to select players solely based on overall performance anymore. How well one can play against Ito is a huge factor. CM has won four out of four whereas DN lost to Ito in such a way that one sees not much hope of improvement in time for the Games. Also, this Qatar Open is not your ordinary platinum event. The CNT has been training for it for weeks realizing that this maybe the only tournament prior to decision time due the coronavirus outbreak.

One of them will play singles, not both. For now, LSW will prevail.

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Originally Posted by Free bird

For those who think both LSW and DN will play singles at the Tokyo Olympic, you’re missing a key point. In all previous Games since Seoul 1988, there was never a real threat to women’s gold metal. CNT selected players mainly based on overall performance and experience for big tournaments. This time around, however, that little girl by the name of Ito has almost single handedly unnerved the whole CNT establishment. They can’t afford to select players solely based on overall performance anymore. How well one can play against Ito is a huge factor. CM has won four out of four whereas DN lost to Ito in such a way that one sees not much hope of improvement in time for the Games. Also, this Qatar Open is not your ordinary platinum event. The CNT has been training for it for weeks realizing that this maybe the only tournament prior to decision time due the coronavirus outbreak.

One of them will play singles, not both. For now, LSW will prevail.

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I see you agree with me, however I pick DN over LSW, see what coaches think

2020 ITTF World Tour Japan Open postponed due to COVID-19

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Originally Posted by Vlad Celler

2020 ITTF World Tour Japan Open postponed due to COVID-19

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I wonder if Tokyo 2020 will have same fate

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Originally Posted by MaLin2.0

I wonder if Tokyo 2020 will have same fate

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Unfortunately, this is becoming more likely (IMHO) ....

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Originally Posted by Vlad Celler

Unfortunately, this is becoming more likely (IMHO) ....

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The games are nice but not at expense of peoples health and putting entire populations at risk.

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Originally Posted by MaLin2.0

The games are nice but not at expense of peoples health and putting entire populations at risk.

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That's right ..

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Originally Posted by MaLin2.0

You have an opinion on how the team will look like for Tokyo games?

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Exactly the same as I thought back in January.

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Originally Posted by Hysteresis

I think if CNT pick DN and LSW, SYS is a shoe-in for third.

Since the only good reason to pick DN at all, is if they stuck rigidly to their rubric of choosing via big tournament experience/performance. In which case SYS is actually the third most achieved player in recent times anyway, since DN/LSW have taken all the Olympics/World Championships and World Cups off the table.

If the CNT are getting cold feet, which I think is justified, it would be that DN is probably the only player in the mix that Ito is an actual favourite over right now, rather than just a heavy upset chance. Then, if anything IMO SYS's chances only increase, since she's both the next most achieved (LSW is probably safe) AND she's in good form, unlike DN.

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Originally Posted by Hysteresis

I agree about Chen Meng, I rate her as having almost no chance. If the CNT go by their traditional way of selection, she has 0 case at all.

If the CNT get cold feet, and care more about form, then I think SYS still has a better case than CM. I doubt they will completely abandon the big event focus for selection, since the Olympics... is a big event. I feel like the CNT views CM similarly to ZYL, even if she is in generally better form.

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DN and LSW, unless the CNT get cold feet and deviate from how they normally select.

If they do get cold feet, it'll be LSW and SYS. With LSW's injury, CM now has a slight look at a distant fourth.

Personally I think selecting DN is problematic, but I suspect CNT will bank on her experience under real pressure, and their preparations to get her over the line (I think they think of her as the clear no 2 option after LSW anyway).

So depending on CNT cold feet and LSW injury, it'll probably be some combination of DN, LSW and SYS.

In the very unlikely scenario that CNT doesn't select DN AND they think LSW is too injured/fresh from injury to play XD and singles, only then SYS + CM will be possible.

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Originally Posted by Vlad Celler

Unfortunately, this is becoming more likely (IMHO) ....

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That’ll be the saddest and most unfortunate episode in the history of the Olympics if indeed it happens. FZD and CM get the most chance to win gold. Who knows what would happen in four years.

Yes ... In my opinion, the situation (KOVID-19) is now such that it is impossible to say what will happen in a few months ....

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Originally Posted by Hysteresis

Exactly the same as I thought back in January.





DN and LSW, unless the CNT get cold feet and deviate from how they normally select.

If they do get cold feet, it'll be LSW and SYS. With LSW's injury, CM now has a slight look at a distant fourth.

Personally I think selecting DN is problematic, but I suspect CNT will bank on her experience under real pressure, and their preparations to get her over the line (I think they think of her as the clear no 2 option after LSW anyway).

So depending on CNT cold feet and LSW injury, it'll probably be some combination of DN, LSW and SYS.

In the very unlikely scenario that CNT doesn't select DN AND they think LSW is too injured/fresh from injury to play XD and singles, only then SYS + CM will be possible.

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You have to know that winning gold trumps everything including fairness to players in the minds of the establishment. DN and LSW both play singles will be unthinkable in light of all the defeats in the hands of Ito Mima.

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Originally Posted by Free bird

For those who think both LSW and DN will play singles at the Tokyo Olympic, you’re missing a key point. In all previous Games since Seoul 1988, there was never a real threat to women’s gold metal. CNT selected players mainly based on overall performance and experience for big tournaments. This time around, however, that little girl by the name of Ito has almost single handedly unnerved the whole CNT establishment. They can’t afford to select players solely based on overall performance anymore. How well one can play against Ito is a huge factor. CM has won four out of four whereas DN lost to Ito in such a way that one sees not much hope of improvement in time for the Games. Also, this Qatar Open is not your ordinary platinum event. The CNT has been training for it for weeks realizing that this maybe the only tournament prior to decision time due the coronavirus outbreak.

One of them will play singles, not both. For now, LSW will prevail.

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They may select Chen Meng, but the idea that someone cannot fix their game in 6 months to beat an opponent that they couldn't beat prior has been debunked multiple times in the past. If you remember there was a time that it was believed that the Chinese had decided Ito around this time last year especially with the WTTC results. Now we have Ito and Ding trading matches over the last 2 months and people are focused on the most recent result.

If the Olympics stay on schedule, a lot will depend on more interactions over the next few months.

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Originally Posted by Free bird

You have to know that winning gold trumps everything including fairness to players in the minds of the establishment. DN and LSW both play singles will be unthinkable in light of all the defeats in the hands of Ito Mima.

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No, this is not true at all. Again you are focused on just one thing. The coaches have a more intimate view of these things. They will only leave Ding and Liu out if they truly believe that the problems are not fixable. And given how much adaptation those 2 have done throughout their careers, it will be saying a lot.

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Originally Posted by Hysteresis

Exactly the same as I thought back in January.





DN and LSW, unless the CNT get cold feet and deviate from how they normally select.

If they do get cold feet, it'll be LSW and SYS. With LSW's injury, CM now has a slight look at a distant fourth.

Personally I think selecting DN is problematic, but I suspect CNT will bank on her experience under real pressure, and their preparations to get her over the line (I think they think of her as the clear no 2 option after LSW anyway).

So depending on CNT cold feet and LSW injury, it'll probably be some combination of DN, LSW and SYS.

In the very unlikely scenario that CNT doesn't select DN AND they think LSW is too injured/fresh from injury to play XD and singles, only then SYS + CM will be possible.

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I think Chen Meng has significantly helped her stock. Zhu Yuling or Liu Shiwen may get pulled from an event to give Chen Meng a chance.

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Originally Posted by NextLevel

I think Chen Meng has significantly helped her stock. Zhu Yuling or Liu Shiwen may get pulled from an event to give Chen Meng a chance.

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And then CNT shocks everyone by sending these three :cool:.

Attachment 21011

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Originally Posted by Free bird

You have to know that winning gold trumps everything including fairness to players in the minds of the establishment. DN and LSW both play singles will be unthinkable in light of all the defeats in the hands of Ito Mima.

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It has nothing to do with fairness. It's how the CNT values certain attributes over others.

The CNT tend to select more experience/achieved players not because of some weird commitment to fairness or two way loyalty. They select more experienced players because they value the ability to handle pressure and perform on the biggest stage much more than almost anything else (within reason).

The CNT are very much always trying to win gold (and usually silver as well). But they seem to be of the opinion that once you meet a baseline of mechanics, tactical/strategic savvy and fitness, the biggest factor that leads to winning is how a player holds up under extreme pressure, for which the Olympics is certainly the biggest occasion to exist in TT.

They very much seem to be of the opinion that they can make the adjustments to tactics/strategy/mechanics to push many of their top players over the line. A weak mentality/ability to handle genuine pressure is something that they are far less confident of fixing.

give Chen Meng a chance that's I'd like, to see

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Originally Posted by Hysteresis

It has nothing to do with fairness. It's how the CNT values certain attributes over others.

The CNT tend to select more experience/achieved players not because of some weird commitment to fairness or two way loyalty. They select more experienced players because they value the ability to handle pressure and perform on the biggest stage much more than almost anything else (within reason).

The CNT are very much always trying to win gold (and usually silver as well). But they seem to be of the opinion that once you meet a baseline of mechanics, tactical/strategic savvy and fitness, the biggest factor that leads to winning is how a player holds up under extreme pressure, for which the Olympics is certainly the biggest occasion to exist in TT.

They very much seem to be of the opinion that they can make the adjustments to tactics/strategy/mechanics to push many of their top players over the line. A weak mentality/ability to handle genuine pressure is something that they are far less confident of fixing.

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It's partly true , but sometimes one player is just better then the other.
You make it sound that if you train for a certain player and adjust tactics that you are always going to win.

I don't agree with that.
Mima Ito will change her tactics too and will train too.
So it's an ever adjusting game between players.

You can see this in the Tennis world, Nadal, Federer, Djokovic dominate there for years and most of the time the form of the day makes the difference.
Otherwise Federer would have just made some tactical adjustments and then he would win every time against Djokovic?

You are right on the performing under pressure part, but as it stands now.
If I had to bet all my money between Ding Ning or Cheng Meng winning from Mima Ito, I would bet on Cheng Meng. She has proven she has the playstyle advantage against Mima and she has proven she can perform under pressure.

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Originally Posted by ZeroTT

It's partly true , but sometimes one player is just better then the other.
You make it sound that if you train for a certain player and adjust tactics that you are always going to win.

I don't agree with that.
Mima Ito will change her tactics too and will train too.
So it's an ever adjusting game between players.

You can see this in the Tennis world, Nadal, Federer, Djokovic dominate there for years and most of the time the form of the day makes the difference.
Otherwise Federer would have just made some tactical adjustments and then he would win every time against Djokovic?

You are right on the performing under pressure part, but as it stands now.
If I had to bet all my money between Ding Ning or Cheng Meng winning from Mima Ito, I would bet on Cheng Meng. She has proven she has the playstyle advantage against Mima and she has proven she can perform under pressure.

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I don't disagree, I personally, believe DN would be a bad pick. Not because she can't beat Ito, but because she bears a greater risk of losing than other potential picks. But we are talking about how the CNT has, and probably will pick, not our personal preference.

But, keep in mind, they are not just picking for ability to handle pressure out of just anyone. They are starting from a list of candidates that already are all championship level anyway, proven by their... having won championships. That's what i meant by 'within reason'.

From that platform, the CNT thinks they can push any of these over the line with preparation. Is there risk that they don't? Sure. Ito is something of a special threat. But CNT has always treated the risk of breakdown under pressure as a greater threat than than the risk of being straight up outplayed.

While you think Chen Meng has proven she can perform under pressure, and frankly I think she's not that bad under pressure either. The CNT seems to disagree.

The problem is, the CNT has always viewed the entire world tour as a bit of a sideshow. They view the 'big tournaments' as Olympics and World Championships firstly, then continental championsips/world cups/ continental cups after that.

World tour performance is of so little importance in CNT reckoning, that if you are winning platinum tours and World tour grand finals, that's nice and cute, but it only shows your form, not your ability to handle pressure, because they consider the events to be of too little importance to constitute genuine pressure.

If Chen Meng is such a riskless choice, can anyone explain why she has absolutely zero major continental or world titles to her name? Because she brings her best game at those moments?