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    1. Top | #11
      brokenball is offline
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      Quote Originally Posted by EmRatThich View Post
      Here you are.
      This is the probability of upset function
      Click image for larger version. 

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      the difference is about only 250 points. With the difference about 400 points, the Upset chance is almost zero.

      For Ma Long, has only 13000 points, and Ovtcharov has 16000 points. You can apply on the Distribution curve yourself, and apply the PDF function to find the winning chance.

      ITTF ranking is a very bad design.
      No loosing-point, so everybody can abuse the system. Mass play, and don't care about the loss, because you can only win the point, but never loose your points.
      ERT, now I know you don't know what you are doing. The RC and USATT charts are designed for systems that range from about 0-3000 points. ERT is applying the same charts to the new 'scoring' or 'performance' system that is scaled much differently. The RC chart was never meant to be applied to the new ITTF tournament scoring/performance system.

      Another item is how do you implement rating 4-3 wins better than 4-0 wins. I think this is a great idea but this is not simple probability math. I was told recently there are some math heavy hitters that visit this forum that can verify the results.

      After reading about this topic I think the rating system like RC should be used in parallel with the new ITTF tournament scoring or performance system. They seem to fill two different purposes.

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      NextLevel (01-14-2018)

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