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I made a calculator based on the your probability of winning a point. Obviously, table tennis is not that simple, but it's a fun toy to mess around with. You can save it and use it for yourself, but for now, I made it so that anyone can edit it (hopefully, none of you mess it up).
You only need to edit the top left yellow box.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1bnhdG6cw_v44Qe07xc5FPKFn-fB2ZGqDbbs9FeK711A/edit?usp=sharing
Here's the link
EDIT: since deuces can be infinite, I stopped at 21-19. Cheers.
If you are interested in how I made it,
You take the binomial distributions.
p = probability of winning the point
[ P(X=10) X~Bin(10 + # of points the opponent gets, p) ] * p
You can't use P(X=11) X~Bin(11 + # of points the opponent gets, p) since that includes cases where the opponent wins point after you get 11.
You only need to edit the top left yellow box.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1bnhdG6cw_v44Qe07xc5FPKFn-fB2ZGqDbbs9FeK711A/edit?usp=sharing
Here's the link
EDIT: since deuces can be infinite, I stopped at 21-19. Cheers.
If you are interested in how I made it,
You take the binomial distributions.
p = probability of winning the point
[ P(X=10) X~Bin(10 + # of points the opponent gets, p) ] * p
You can't use P(X=11) X~Bin(11 + # of points the opponent gets, p) since that includes cases where the opponent wins point after you get 11.
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