Guestimate the Ratings

This user has no status.
This user has no status.
Well-Known Member
Jun 2015
2,205
547
2,850
was talking about guys in the first post of this thread (https://youtu.be/rKoBtaDk68Q)
can't find the video from December 2 2018

December 2, 2018 is the latest tournament the guy with hair played. That video has not been posted. It was just a reference point since he won the singles title for the Siberian Region. So any guestimates under a 2000 USATT rating cannot be legitimate.
 
December 2, 2018 is the latest tournament the guy with hair played. That video has not been posted. It was just a reference point since he won the singles title for the Siberian Region. So any guestimates under a 2000 USATT rating cannot be legitimate.


Well, as I said I rank them as "experienced, but not master" amateurs, which in the above table would be "intermediate +", and "master" would be "advanced". So 1600-1800 for the older and 1800-2000 for the younger player would be appropriate.
But still I'm a little bit confused, because, as brokenball said - they are not playing very smart - for the older man its very obvious, he is trying to do hits that are not appropriate for the ball and that should give a much greater advantage to the younger, of which he didn't get much use. He has some well done shots, but at the same time is late blocking not so fast balls at his zone of comfort. Estimating ranks by length of rally is not very appropriate, but I would expect more better returns from a 2000+ player.
 
If he's a regional champion, even in Siberia, he's likely to be 2300+ not 1600 lol.

I said that the younger player, who is supposed to be the champion, maybe considered up to 2000, not 1600.

In our club we have through the years national champions and national 2nd and 3rd places in almost all age groups.
Now its good to know that we have about 10 players 2300+ in the club.
I don't think that such comparisons could be correct.
 
This user has no status.
This user has no status.
Well-Known Member
Oct 2014
12,272
17,728
44,267
Read 17 reviews
He was asking it to Broken ball specifically because there is no point in revealing one of the players is a 2750 player. I guess it doesn't matter now. He has no intention of addressing this.

The other guy is a tournament/league player and is easily over 2500 and more likely over 2650. I believe though I am not sure that his last name is Jetvocic or something similar. In any case, my point was that it is easy to lose context when you don't know what you are watching.

But the original video, if you look long enough, you will see shots that 2000 players absolutely do not make unless they are former 2200+ players on the downside. Like I said, it comes down to what you are watching. The styles don't make for easy viewing but when they are forced to rally you see some really testing shots including one difficult around the net shot from below net height.
 
says 2023 Certified Organ Donor
says 2023 Certified Organ Donor
Well-Known Member
Sep 2011
12,821
13,210
30,387
Read 27 reviews
Ah the LULZ of the season.

Gluhwein in the market.

Lebkuchen and cafe at home.

Crowds at the Kriskrindl Markt.

Delirium in the TT forums.

What would the world do without them?

I bet you look at any match vid of me from 2015 or 2016 and the forum in general would dismiss me as 1500 easily like any other fat and fifty yr old USA TT playa.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk
 
  • Like
Reactions: UpSideDownCarl
This user has no status.
This user has no status.
Well-Known Member
Jul 2017
1,763
835
2,918
well, I just got mathsplained.
You might not belive it, but I "get it".
The problem is we are not talking about robots, but real human beings...or even players from the video, where average rally was around or even below drive/block exchange, so my model is much closer to reallity than model expecting them to drive/block for eternity.
They don't drive and block back and forth for eternity. A mathematician would say the limit approaches 0.
Also, as you point out, they are people vs robots. Someone will eventually hit a weak ball.

However, if the first player gets back only 2/3s of his shots and the second player returns 1/2 of those. The ball is still in play on 1/3 of the time after two strokes and 1/9 of the time after 4 strokes. There are very few long rallies.

There is a second case where rallies can be short that Vrael points below.

The 2nd point is that You totally omitted the % for ball being a winner.
Not entirely, I take into account landing the ball. However, the percentage of balls the other guys gets back drops.
Yes, I agree it is not correct to assume the percentages stay the same. My point is that one can tell a rough idea of the percentages by how long the rallies are. In the case of the first video the rallies are very short so the players were not making shots with a high enough percentage. A person that can block 2/3 of them back would win easily.

What Vrael does points out something. I will use his example again. Assume player player is hitting 4/5 and Vrael is hitting 3/4 of the back. The two players will break even but if Vrael hits goes for a kill shot he may win land only 2/3 of them expecting his opponent to get back only 1/10 or less. This would be a good play for Vrael. It would make for a short rally.

So there are two reasons for short rallies.
1. Players make poor shots or poor shot choices like in the first video. ( when I play with my practice partners I often fall in this category, I get more conservative when playing a real game )
2. The weak player setup the better player for kill shots. The weaker player could be quite good but the player making the kill shots is better and forcing errors or weak returns. It is relative. The greater the relative difference in skill the shorter the rallies will be.

To answer the question about the two much better players. I wouldn't have guessed 2750. I would have guessed about 2300-2500. The near guy is MUCH better than the player on the far side of the table. The good player loops the ball and aims for corners instead of blasting the ball back anywhere. They mess up fewer serves and serve returns. They are also served short. This is what I had to do when I played my coach because long serves off the table would be looped just like what the near player could do.

BTW, two relatively evenly matched players that get back about 9/10 of the ball would have a 41% chance of still playing at the end of 8 strokes.
 
This user has no status.
This user has no status.
Well-Known Member
Oct 2014
12,272
17,728
44,267
Read 17 reviews
To answer the question about the two much better players. I wouldn't have guessed 2750. I would have guessed about 2300-2500. The near guy is MUCH better than the player on the far side of the table. The good player loops the ball and aims for corners instead of blasting the ball back anywhere. They mess up fewer serves and serve returns. They are also served short. This is what I had to do when I played my coach because long serves off the table would be looped just like what the near player could do.

BTW, two relatively evenly matched players that get back about 9/10 of the ball would have a 41% chance of still playing at the end of 8 strokes.

Both players are national team players and the one nearer the camera is a legend (Karakasevic). It was likely a practice match. But the quality and consistency of serve and serve return is generally amazing though the approach in a tournament/league match would be likely sharper.

In my experience, it is much harder to properly rate a level you are not playing at or close to.

The idea that two evenly matched players should have a 41% chance of still playing at the end of eight strokes would only make sense if almost the other points end on serve, since the average TT point is 3-4 strokes including serve. Or maybe it's just rare for equally matched players to play each other.
 
Last edited:
This user has no status.
This user has no status.
Active Member
Oct 2012
891
510
1,733
Read 1 reviews
I think people should stop guessing how good/bad a player is just by looking at videos. The reason is that camera compresses the whole court into a much smaller frame. It thus creates such an optical illusion that players are slower than what they actually are. I watched LA Open tournament when Hou Ying Chao played against Tao Wenzhang. Some amazing quick shots I couldn't imagine how normal human beings could do look just SO SO on screen. A remedy is you just add 300 -400 points to your best guess then you are about right. So Der_Echte should be around 1800-1900 if you think he is 1500 :D or Karakasevic should be 2600-2800 if your guess is 2300-2500.
 
This user has no status.
This user has no status.
Member
Jul 2014
263
249
697
Read 6 reviews
They don't drive and block back and forth for eternity. A mathematician would say the limit approaches 0.Also, as you point out, they are people vs robots. Someone will eventually hit a weak ball.

Limit of what approaches 0 ? There is no limit here. We could talk about limit if it was infinite sequence (or however it is called in english), but I talked about average length of the rally.

Not "someone" will hit the weak ball, but the blocks that You can make with n-1/n % are already considered weak balls from the get go (unless You are a Fergel in disguise), so next balls of the opponent will be better and better when his % will stay the same or get even higher (cause Your returns will get weaker and weaker)

However, if the first player gets back only 2/3s of his shots and the second player returns 1/2 of those. The ball is still in play on 1/3 of the time after two strokes and 1/9 of the time after 4 strokes. There are very few long rallies.

Yes, they are very few long rallies and that is why we don't need to block correctly (n-1)/n, even if we blocked with much lower % we would still be winning. (assuming the rally is short). And here we get the contradiction, because as we can see in the video noone is making n/n+1 % shots, unless we take n=1, but then naking 0/1 blocks makes no sense.

Yes, I agree it is not correct to assume the percentages stay the same. My point is that one can tell a rough idea of the percentages by how long the rallies are. In the case of the first video the rallies are very short so the players were not making shots with a high enough percentage. A person that can block 2/3 of them back would win easily.

In this video they are trying to kill block or kill drive every single ball that comes their way, but I can assure You that if You tried to just block them they would just kill the next ball...and that is why none of them is blocking. I am not saying their plan is great, but there is no way that You could win against them even Your 1st block would land 100% of the times. They would see that You are not dangerous at all and they would probably make slow spinny opening loop (With much higher % than the strokes they do in the video) and kill the next ball (making Your chances of blocking next ball close to 0).

It is hard for me to write all that, cause I am also rather "safe" player putting high % shots on table most of the time.

I agree that they are lacking some fundamentals and their tactics are far from perfect, but from what I can see in that video they are not the players that would lose to a player that gives them the initiative and is only trying to block.

BTW, two relatively evenly matched players that get back about 9/10 of the ball would have a 41% chance of still playing at the end of 8 strokes.

Let's take Ma Long and Fan Zhedong...how many 8 strokes rallies do they produce against each other ? I am almost certain it is way below 41% and the strokes they can easly make 9/10 loops, drives, flicks...whatever techinique You have in mind, so why their rallies are shorter ?
Cause there are no shits that You can make with 9/10 success rate against the shots that they are producing and that is why any model that uses limits etc makes no sense. Players are not making 8/9,9/10 or higher percentage shots. They are making 60%-75% power shots that will end the rally, cause they know that any higher % shot is just too weak.

So...I hope we can agree to end the "math" talk here :D. The reason why I laughed is that there is no point in talking about close to infinite rallies in table tennis (unless it is 2 choppers playing each otehr :D) and any "tactic" basic around that is just not practical. Unless we take one pro player against a beginner then the pro player can make those 9/10 shots and still own the begginer/much lowwer ranked player
 
says I would recommend all wood. Samsonov Alpha sgs is the...
says I would recommend all wood. Samsonov Alpha sgs is the...
Active Member
Nov 2017
876
400
1,399
Read 8 reviews
Vrael and whoever you were discussing with, I understand the conception but it doesn't really work like that.
You're talking as if shots are selected according to their % of going in etc. Even low level players don't play like that (they haven't the sense), and high level players definitely don't (perfect technique). It's not like basketball or something where a 50% of making a shot is considered "SUPER ELITE ALLSTAR". Here if you don't make 99% of the shots you're nobody.

High level play isn't about shot %, it's about tactics and placement. Good players make extremely high percentages of whatever shot, so long as they're properly situated to begin with. High level play is all about placement and tactical principles to deny the opponent the comfortable shot. You assume (correctly) that the opponent will be killing you with his next shot if you don't place it correctly even with your most powerful shots.

I dunno if you've had the fun of playing a real elite player. I have. The number 2 regionally.
And he explained to me (and showed me, much to my amazement at the time) why it's pointless to, say, play your most powerful, spinniest backhand from the forehand side (I was caught flat footed at the wide forehand and played a backhand topspin, as happens to beginners).
Because a good player will instantly, automatically block all those balls to your wide backhand and catch you out of place. Then he proceeded to demonstrate, which was quite painful. Automatically and effortlessly. A real high level player can block even your best powerloop automatically and effortlessly. The fact that you see them counterspinning is because that is easy to them too and more pressuring, if they get to the ball in time for the motion.
He was explaining to me that this is the only thing that matters. Position and placement. Because if you're off on position and placement, you can be easily destroyed by simple blocks that any good player does automatically and effortlessly.

These guys in the video here are not high level in my estimation. They're just trying their best to put the ball on the table as 'offensively' as possible and often not doing that either from a comfortable position. If we're talking about the same video anyway.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: langel
This user has no status.
This user has no status.
Member
Jul 2014
263
249
697
Read 6 reviews
Vrael and whoever you were discussing with, I understand the conception but it doesn't really work like that.
You're talking as if shots are selected according to their % of going in etc. Even low level players don't play like that (they haven't the sense), and high level players definitely don't (perfect technique). It's not like basketball or something where a 50% of making a shot is considered "SUPER ELITE ALLSTAR". Here if you don't make 99% of the shots you're nobody.
High level play isn't about shot %, it's about tactics and placement. Good players make extremely high percentages of whatever shot, so long as they're properly situated to begin with. High level play is all about placement and tactical principles to deny the opponent the comfortable shot. You assume (correctly) that the opponent will be killing you with his next shot if you don't place it correctly even with your most powerful shots.

I was talking about match situation. Of course they can make every shot with 99% accuracy, but it is during practice. If they were playing 99% shots during matches, rallies would last 99 shots on average. Of course the shots are based on tactics and tactic is based on %. For example Koki Niwa's % away from table is very low, so his tactic is to stay as close to table as possible. Players might not think about %, but they feel what situations give them advantage. It is all about %, but rather than % of making the shot land on the table, it is about % of winning the action. If You can win 51% of rallies that should be enough to win the match.

I dunno if you've had the fun of playing a real elite player. I have. The number 2 regionally.
And he explained to me (and showed me, much to my amazement at the time) why it's pointless to, say, play your most powerful, spinniest backhand from the forehand side (I was caught flat footed at the wide forehand and played a backhand topspin, as happens to beginners).
Because a good player will instantly, automatically block all those balls to your wide backhand and catch you out of place. Then he proceeded to demonstrate, which was quite painful. Automatically and effortlessly. A real high level player can block even your best powerloop automatically and effortlessly. The fact that you see them counterspinning is because that is easy to them too and more pressuring, if they get to the ball in time for the motion.
He was explaining to me that this is the only thing that matters. Position and placement. Because if you're off on position and placement, you can be easily destroyed by simple blocks that any good player does automatically and effortlessly.

These guys in the video here are not high level in my estimation. They're just trying their best to put the ball on the table as 'offensively' as possible and often not doing that either from a comfortable position. If we're talking about the same video anyway.

Well, I had the chance to hit with Yuto Muramatsu, Thomas Keniath, former Japanese champion, Kizukuri Yuto and few other less known players. And I must tell You...they couldn't block "even my best powerloop automatically and effortlessly." every time. Of course that was the case most of the time, but if they can't contact the racket with the incoming ball (as it should be with the properly executed powerloop) then there is no way they can block it
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: Takkyu_wa_inochi
if they can't contact the racket with the incoming ball (as it should be with the properly executed powerloop) then there is no way they can block it

There are powerloops /I prefer to say aggressive sharp topspin, as here the loop can be so flat that can hardly be said to be a loop, but with lot of spin/ that are not suitable and even impossible to block, but for shure could be countered or cut if the player is on position. So its again a matter of tactics, experience and level.
 
This user has no status.
This user has no status.
Member
Jul 2014
263
249
697
Read 6 reviews
@vrael
did you hit the ball with them in Japan ? at UPTY ?

I hit with Yuto Muramatsu during polish open...2015. I was volunteer helping during the event, saw Muramatsu stretching after everybody left...and took my chance :D. We also talked about anime after the practice. He also asked me if I entered the tournament xD. Guess the level between him an the weakest players on the pro tour is so big he can't even tell that I would get destroyed by those "weak" players...or was just nice. He was also chopping easy enough for me to continue the rally and have fun. Of course when I asked him for serious serve I was not able to return it. Was fast, at the end line and had more backspin than my most spinny serves.

With Kizukuri Yuto I have also played during Polish open for few minutes. Mostly serve/recieve and I am proud of the fact that he didn't read one out of around 10 of my reverse pendelum serves. Even his coach was surprised :D.

I have trained with Thomas Keniath for 3 weeks and it was really great experience. The other player that was there a little longer than me had occasion to play with Timo Boll and even got his rubbers.

With Ryusuke of course in upty :)

I was also at the B75 camp and reccomend it to anyone. Level of the coaches is amazing and there are 3 coaches per group (around 16 or less people). There is plenty of time for individual multi-ball etc. One of the Chinese coaches I got is still playing in dannish league and in his prime he has won with players such as Waldner.
 
Top