Japan Top 12 and WTTC 2019 Trial, 3/2-3

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Many have the impression that the selection was carried out too honestly and democratically .....
What prevented the conduct of the Japan TOP-12 by analogy with Marwelloy-12?Then it would be possible not to carry out the second stage, games with previously selected ....For 4 - 5 days it was quite possible to meet .... with a load acceptable for the participants ....
 
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If I understand you correctly based on points 1-5 there was no such thing as a wild card, if all of them outlined 5 players. But since those points produced only 3 players, point #6 came into play. So 2 spots were given based on the international results ONLY in 2018.
Another criteria was: "who has high potential for improving international competitiveness".

Not sure what was different about final trials this year? So before Japan had 2 stages, both round robin in Dec and this year 2nd stage was in March and knock-out?

There are still questions, because what JNT has now, is that they left out a player with a potential of causing a huge upset (like beating CNT). Sorry to say it but currently imho only Ito has a comparable strength.

There were some posts about Hayata's injury in 2018 that affected her results in WT cycle 2018.

WTTC starts late April, lineups are being announced till the middle of march 2019 (almost a quarter of the year) and they still want to look only into 2018? A 3 months gap.

Wild cards should be the last part of selection process, but in this case it was released before final eliminator and like 2 months in advance?

I'm not trying to be upset with you @Zeio : ) but for me looks like JNT just "transparently and publicly" ruled out their best dark horse.

This really convinces me they need to rethink their procedures.
Yup, the wildcard didn't exist from the getgo, at least theoretically.

Up until last year, trial had always consisted of only 1 stage of mass round robin, always held in Dec. This year is the 1st time for 2 stages, mass round-robin for stage 1, still held in Dec, and then knock-out for stage 2, which is a part of Japan Top 12, always held in Mar.

Rather than being upset, I actually find people's reactions fascinating because what they desire is exactly China's meritocratic system that has been under constant attacks.

A fundamental principle of democracy is equality. Equality is achieved here by giving equal consideration of every candidate by applying equal criteria to them. In that sense, by picking the wildcards after the trial, the JNT would give undue treatment to Hayata(yet another pass) which is unfair to Hirano and Sato because only the international results should be part of the consideration and not the results of the trial.

Here's a comment(15 likes/29 dislikes) by a Japanese netizen over the women's results on the Marvellous 12. China does pick according to the outcome this time. I can only hope that person is not a Hayata supporter.

https://headlines.yahoo.co.jp/cm/main?d=20190304-00000002-rallysv-spo
say***** | 3/4(月) 13:07

しかし中国の場合、この順位通りに世界選手権の代表が決まるとは限らない。上層部の主観的な判断が入って順位を軽視することもありうる。選手は気の毒だが、一方、そうだとすればそこに日本のつけ込む余地もある。

昔の日本の選考方法も今の中国と似ていたが、今や日本では上層部の主観的な判断は許されない。選手選考では日本のほうが進んでいるのだ。
"But China is not based on this outcome to decide who can represent the national team. The subjective will of the leader is more important and the position is disregarded. This is unfair to the players. Maybe Japan will have a chance to win.

The method of trial in Japan used to be the same as for the current China, but now Japan can not tolerate the subjective judgment of the upper management. Japan is better at player selection."
 
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Many have the impression that the selection was carried out too honestly and democratically .....
What prevented the conduct of the Japan TOP-12 by analogy with Marwelloy-12?Then it would be possible not to carry out the second stage, games with previously selected ....For 4 - 5 days it was quite possible to meet .... with a load acceptable for the participants ....
I wonder about the change, too. Hayata would've been selected if they were to follow past practice. Still, we wouldn't know if Kato was merely suppressing her form until the Japan Top 12.
 
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Meant to write this after Japan Top 12 but got held up by other things. There're also some misconceptions around the selection criteria. So here goes.

As with other tournaments, the selection criteria for WTTC 2019 had been released a year ahead of time on the official JTTA website, 2018/3/10 to be precise.

For 2019, the criteria are as follows:


1. Selection method of 5 men and women singles representatives
(1) Top-ranked Japanese player within WR20 announced in January 2019: (1 person)
(2) Top-ranked Japanese player within WR100 announced in January 2019: (1 person) ※ Other than the highest-ranked Japanese player within WR 20 from (1)
(3) Winner of internal trial (1 person)
(4) All-Japan Table Tennis Championships men's and women's singles winners (1 person)
(5) 1 person from among those who win 2 times or more in singles in international competitions(Asian Games, World Cup, Asian Cup, 6 World Tour Platinum tournaments, World Tour Japan Open, World Tour Grand Finals) from January 1 2018 to December 31, 2018. (1 person) ※ In case of duplication, selection to be made by the development headquarter
(6) If the number of candidate selected in the above (1) to (5) is less than 5 due to the same player being selected repeatedly, etc., the development headquarter will select with consideration of the following two points.
・ Evaluation of the results and contents of major international competitions from January 2018
・ Evaluation of players considered to have high potential for improving international competitiveness


Note the ones underlined. The process of selecting Hirano and Sato is transparent because the JTTA has already stated the scope of evaluation would be the results during 2018. Below is the JTTA's official position behind their selections.



Also, JTTA has a tradition of announcing the lineup including the wildcards b/w late Jan to early Feb.

WTTC 2019 - 2019/01/29
WTTC 2017 - 2017/01/23
WTTC 2015 - 2015/01/19
WTTC 2013 - 2013/02/04
WTTC 2011 - 2011/02/01
WTTC 2009 - 2009/01/23

Therefore, Hayata had already missed the window by the time she won the Portugal Open in mid Feb. This is why I wrote the following right after, before the Japan Top 12.



Now, one major difference this year is the final trial, which is composed of 2 stages and is part of the Japan Top 12. In the past, round-robin trials were typically held in Dec of the prior year. This time, stage 1 was still held in the same format in Dec, with the added stage 2 in single elimination.

FYI, Ishikawa, Ito, and Hirano have never won in past trials.

Many argue they should've waited after the trial before announcing the lineup. While I don't know the reason behind the change, but if we go by the same position as the JTTA, it most likely wouldn't make a difference. Even if we count the Portugal Open, Hayata simply didn't beat enough top 30 players and her ranking was much lower.

The situation is rather similar to how ZJK snatched the London Olympics spot from ML after winning the WTTC 2011 and ML went on to achieve a 51-match winning streak. Same rule for everyone who is made known well ahead of time, and ML failed to deliver.

That 51 match winning streak got Ma Long the 3rd position on the team even if he couldn't play singles. So let's keep some perspective. Before that it was expected that Ma Lin could get the nod as defending Olympic champion even if he didn't play singles.
 
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Winning the WTTC in 2009. That is usually the first singles qualifier for Olympic team in China. It is if for some reason that player can't go that the spot opens up.

For the interested, WTTC winners always attended the Olympics, with rare exceptions.

Another peculiar condition with WTTC 2011 is that the criteria were set such that the top 2 for each NOC on the WR released right after the tournament(June 2011?) would qualify for the singles event of London Olympics. WH and ZJK were WR1 and WR3, respectively. MLin was 4th and ML was 5th. ML would've been above ZJK had he won the WTTC.
 
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For the interested, WTTC winners always attended the Olympics, with rare exceptions.

Another peculiar condition with WTTC 2011 is that the criteria were set such that the top 2 for each NOC on the WR released right after the tournament(June 2011?) would qualify for the singles event of London Olympics. WH and ZJK were WR1 and WR3, respectively. MLin was 4th and ML was 5th. ML would've been above ZJK had he won the WTTC.
This is the link you were really looking for


http://mytabletennis.net/forum/zjk-and-xx-will-go-to-rio_topic75507_post934383.html#934383
 
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Winning the WTTC in 2009. That is usually the first singles qualifier for Olympic team in China. It is if for some reason that player can't go that the spot opens up.

That's such ancient history it makes little sense, well if you want to take your two best players that is.
 
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I fixed it before your post already.
 
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That's such ancient history it makes little sense, well if you want to take your two best players that is.

That's on the ITTF, as they decided to use the June 2011 World Ranking, which was right after WTTC, to qualify players for London Olympics, seen back then as yet another attempt to contain China.

There's a very good chance for WH to become a grand slam holder if ML actually qualified.
 
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That's such ancient history it makes little sense, well if you want to take your two best players that is.

Not if you think that the ability to win the biggest events says something apart from recent performance (the Chinese do value peaking for big events). I have spoken to coaches about it and I am open to both perspectives. But you saw what happened to Ma Long in 2013 as well so it gives you another perspective. If Zhang Jike had lost in 2016 earlier rounds, maybe this would have been reopened. But his play closed that discussion completely. In the team singles matches, it was Xu Xin who lost go Mizutani and you saw how Jike played Jeoung Youngsik of Korea even when his coach was panicking.

Same with Li Xiaoxia who basically played sparingly because of injury then came back to win the qualifiers while Liu Shiwen choked both the WTTC and the qualifiers.
 
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If people still remember, CCY actually told the media "as long as I don't face ML in the draw, I feel I could do it. Given ZJK's current form, I feel I could do it, too. It's hard to tell, but he might get eliminated before I meet him."

His minimum target was the QF and he said the 2nd round of main draw(R16) would be the most dangerous. We know what happened in the R32. Throughout the video, he had his eyes only on the CNT.


https://www.olympic.org/news/introd...-table-tennis-player-of-all-time-quadri-aruna
Two years on, how do you reflect on Rio 2016 and all that you achieved?

I actually had no confidence against Chuang Chih-Yuan [Chinese Taipei’s four-time world tour champion, whom Aruna faced in the third round] because earlier in January that year I lost in Germany in the first round 4-0 to him. So in Rio I was like, “I have lost before, now I have nothing left to lose, he is a much better player than me.” So, I said to myself, “Just give your best, play and enjoy.” Then I was able to win the first two sets and the match was a different spirit entirely.

Against Timo Boll [Germany’s three-time Olympic medal winner, whom Aruna played in the fourth round] I was feeling the same way. I was aware the whole world was watching. But before Timo was able to understand my game, I was already 3-0 and it was really too late for him to come back.

I stepped up my game and played without pressure because I knew all the players in the Olympic Games are very, very good.

https://www.chinatimes.com/realtimenews/20160808002237-260403?chdt
「第2局很關鍵,領先卻被對手逆轉,一晃神,對手氣已經上來了。」莊智淵與阿魯納生涯只在今年德國公開賽交手一次,當時小莊以直落4取勝,此番奧運再度交手,打來卻節奏全失,他說:「對手小球處理讓我打來彆扭,我有機會發揮時,球又不規則亂跳。」
...「其實我心情還是很平靜,也相信如果再上去打,我不會輸。」話中帶著不甘心,他說:「碰到這種非預期狀況,主要還是心態要調整,距離團體賽還有時間,先去總結自己的想法,再去調整。」
"Game 2 was crucial, dropping it after leading. By the time I got a grip, his momentum was already built up." CCY and Aruna had played only once until then, in the German Open this year, winning in straight games. In this rematch, his pace was totally off. "His short game gave me a lot of trouble. Yet when I found my groove, the ball would bounce irratically" CCY said.
..."I was tranquil inside, and still believe if we were to play again, I wouldn't lose."..."when faced with an unexpected situation like this, the main thing is a fair attitude. There's still time before the team event, so I'll regroup my thoughts and make adjustment."
 
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Btw Zeio, on your analysis, maybe it is the translation but results after 2018 are results after 2018. And I think on the final analysis of potential, Hayata playing the way she did in a variety of situations including Portugal, T-league and the internal trials should have opened the coach's eyes.

I have no doubt that the coaches tried to be as fair as possible. And this is why I tell people that when selecting the best player, using one match rather than using all the evidence available will lead to worse decisions. After all, you can mandate that everyone play the trials but still make choices not based on trial rankings purely but using trials as one input amongst many.

In any case, I hope Hayata will at least enable the Japanese to rethink what is possible if the goal is to field the best team.
 
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Ahh ... first of all, I think we are using words democracy and meritocracy a little bit incorrectly. I mean if anything a more "democratic" selection (well it wasn't really democratic senso stricto, so the word should not be used at all) was the one done by the CNT and meritocratic one, was more on the JNT side. In case of the CNT, it was up to the coaches to decide who gets selected, so I imagine they had to vote. Japan version was actually meritocratic, because it was purely your merit, your tournament results that decided if you were going to qualify or not.


When it comes to individual events like WTTC, I have to confess I have mixed feelings if the wild cards should be granted. It is an individual event so every player should individually fight for spots ... but there are some undefinable or unpredictable things like injuries and someones peak performances etc., so a 1 wild card for 5 spots overall, I would say is justifiable. I'm saying in general, not necessarily referring to the JNT rules.
World Team Table Tennis Championship is of course a different story.


What I think I'm right criticizing the JNT for, is to put more weight on a player's results say in early 2018 than early 2019. Also upsets like Hayta beating Liu Shiwen are so rare ... they should not be unnoticed ...
 
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Not if you think that the ability to win the biggest events says something apart from recent performance (the Chinese do value peaking for big events). I have spoken to coaches about it and I am open to both perspectives. But you saw what happened to Ma Long in 2013 as well so it gives you another perspective. If Zhang Jike had lost in 2016 earlier rounds, maybe this would have been reopened. But his play closed that discussion completely. In the team singles matches, it was Xu Xin who lost go Mizutani and you saw how Jike played Jeoung Youngsik of Korea even when his coach was panicking.

Same with Li Xiaoxia who basically played sparingly because of injury then came back to win the qualifiers while Liu Shiwen choked both the WTTC and the qualifiers.

It's a small sample size and a long period of time. If Jhang Jike won in 2016 he could be getting picked for the world's this year based on that alone if you take this as a consistent approach.

It just encourages staleness where the top dogs can't be toppled even when they are usurped in ability.

The Chinese get away with so much inefficiency in my opinion, because they can afford to. They achieve despite of these things not because of in my opinion. They don't do things rationally. One day it will bite them. Maybe in 2020.
 
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Damn, Bernadette was bodied by Hina
 
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It's a small sample size and a long period of time. If Jhang Jike won in 2016 he could be getting picked for the world's this year based on that alone if you take this as a consistent approach.

It just encourages staleness where the top dogs can't be toppled even when they are usurped in ability.

The Chinese get away with so much inefficiency in my opinion, because they can afford to. They achieve despite of these things not because of in my opinion. They don't do things rationally. One day it will bite them. Maybe in 2020.

You mean Ma Long choking was a small sample size? And Zhang Jike winning 2013 was a small sample size?

The thing is that there is an argument that you can disagree with that some people play to.peak at big events. And maybe it was just matchups but Ma Long had his Wang Hai issues. He also had a fragile ego when things didn't go his way that he had to work through. Liu Guoliang said often that Zhang Jike was someone who needed you to doubt him to get his best game.

My point is that the coaches work with these players everyday. It is easy to call them inefficient. And they might be. But not on the basis of the results so far.

Zhang Jike was invited for 2019 WTTC but he declined. That is how life works. He has been dethroned in combat. Ma Long can be dethroned as well. But they know that pressure can be debilitating and it is not all about how you perform when there is no pressure.
 
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