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    1. Top | #221
      driversbeat is offline
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      That is indeed impressive, but my point (c) in that you haven't proven yourself against a CNT player until you beat them more than once still stands.

      ITO is undeniably impressive but her feats of winning several main CNT players in an Open have been accomplished before (Jiang Huajun, Fukuhara, Feng Tianwei).

      I really hope ITO lives up to all the hype by winning a medal (or title) of a world cup or major asian game at least but she's been consistently cockblocked via participation of Hirano as well as unranked qualifiers like Sun Yingsha.
      Last edited by driversbeat; 2 Days Ago at 10:23 AM.

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    3. Top | #222
      NextLevel is offline
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      Quote Originally Posted by driversbeat View Post
      That is indeed impressive, but my point (c) in that you haven't proven yourself against a CNT player until you beat them more than once still stands.

      ITO is undeniably impressive but her feats of winning several main CNT players in an Open have been accomplished before (Jiang Huajun, Fukuhara, Feng Tianwei).

      I really hope ITO lives up to all the hype by winning a medal (or title) of a world cup or major asian game at least but she's been consistently cockblocked via participation of Hirano as well as unranked qualifiers like Sun Yingsha.
      Note that a couple of the players you listed are Chinese exports, so you are really left with Fukuhara. Your point is taken, and maybe the standard for threat is set too low. Maybe the CNT is just so bored that they are looking for an opportunity to rally your team around an enemy. But I think there is clear evidence that it really is not that straightforward. For me, I see the matches and I can see that they are competitive. And the problems Ito faces are not insoluble things, though it will be nothing new if they do not get her results vs CNT. Let's see whether Ito will beat another CNT player this year or play a competitive match after being solved. I think that will answer the question better than arguing.
      Cobra Kai TT Exponent - No mercy in this dojo, no matter your rating or the score. All spin, no power or footwork.

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    5. Top | #223
      driversbeat is offline
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      Definitely. You raised two points that crossed my mind but didn't manage to address. Hayata hasn't beaten anyone in CNT's core besides Liu Shiwen but everyone can see that she's more competitive than Ishikawa or even Hirano. But that's the limitations of data for you. Going into games ratio would have been too tedious for me to handle.

      Apart from Kim Kyungah and Tamara Boros, everyone else in the list outside of JNT was an import. Which speaks to how immense the gulf was between CNT and the rest of the world; a gap which JNT has successfully filled in recent years, but they are still a long way from toppling CNT.

      Also I'd like to clarify that I'm not one for arguing. I'm just a TT nerd who had a little extra time at work today and decided to contribute to the analysis on this thread.
      Last edited by driversbeat; 2 Days Ago at 03:33 PM.

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    7. Top | #224
      usualsuspect is offline
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      Quote Originally Posted by NextLevel View Post
      The subject was not whether Ito or Harimoto supposedly have fundamental flaws - even Xu Xin has a relatively weak backhand and he has been CNT A his whole life.

      It was whether the Chinese team considered Ito a serious threat. You make it sound as if anyone was even scaring or winning matches against the Chinese in the last decade before Hirano and Ito came along. Guo Yan and Li Sun were speaking on this context.

      As for the future, who really knows. If you want we can place money on a Harimoto bet. I consider most of his perceived weaknesses to be a sign of youth. You may disagree. But I think it is easy to take a popular opinion (no one can beat the CNT) and then act like those who are 20% successful are failures because you set the bar at 80%. Forgetting that historically maybe no one got to 5%.
      I'm not saying Ito and Harimoto weren't a threat. But are they still a threat now that most CNT players have learned to exploit their substantial weaknesses? If so, how big of a threat are they for the 2020 Olympic?

      Of course there are many ways Ito and Harimoto could address their technical flaws in the long run. But I don't see any short term fixes they could employ to help with their 2020 Tokyo ambitions.

    8. Top | #225
      NextLevel is offline
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      Quote Originally Posted by usualsuspect View Post
      I'm not saying Ito and Harimoto weren't a threat. But are they still a threat now that most CNT players have learned to exploit their substantial weaknesses? If so, how big of a threat are they for the 2020 Olympic?

      Of course there are many ways Ito and Harimoto could address their technical flaws in the long run. But I don't see any short term fixes they could employ to help with their 2020 Tokyo ambitions.
      Well the truth is that no one knows whether a fix at the professional level is short term or long term. You may very well be right but you can also be wrong. Your position is conservative like mine (China has a huge edge) but we differ in our analysis of the gap. What you don't see could very well be a function of your inability to see as much as anything objective. Good coaches have told me that when they fix a player, the player usually plays worse but that they don't know how much longer the player will play worse etc. But given the amount of training time these athletes put in, just about anything is fixable of it is reasonably so.

      China is the favorite. Nothing changes that. But no need to pretend you have some special insight into what Harimoto and Ito can or can't do on the basis of that. For me, the one thing I am 95% sure of is that Harimoto will be physically stronger next year than he is this year. People trivialize the impact of that. Let's wait and see.

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