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    1. Top | #1201
      Vlad Celler is online now
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      Quote Originally Posted by driversbeat View Post
      Hirano still has the tinest chance. Her first opponent is Wang Yidi and then most likely Chen Xingtong. Kasumi on the other hand faces Liu Shiwen right off the bat and then probably Chen Meng if she makes it through.
      Yes ... A prerequisite for Miu Hirano is to go one round further than Ishikawa.

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    3. Top | #1202
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      My mistake. Hirano's quaterfinal opponent will probably be Sun Yingsha

    4. Top | #1203
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      But the likelihood that Ishikawa and Hirano lose in the first round is very high ....In this case, Ishikawa will be higher in the January ITTF ranking, and Hirano will have to play in the first round of TOP-12 ....

    5. Top | #1204
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      Quote Originally Posted by pongfugrasshopper View Post
      Fairness is subjective, and we all have our own opinions of what's fair. I don't consider points from T2 to be fair... it's an exclusive tournament where points are added *on top of* a player's best 8. But other's may consider it fair. It's interesting to me from zeio's spreadsheet if you look at Best-8 (not including T2), Hayata (7520) is ahead of both Sato (7495) and Kato (6985). True, Hayata was not successful against Chinese opposition at the NA Open and clearly has work to do, but her record this year vs. CNT is the best among Japanese contenders for 2nd place. Now, this defense of Hayata does not take away from IK, HM, SH, or KM. They all have achievements worthy of praise.
      Let's see what would happen if we look at the Opens only. Nothing else. No invitational events such as Asian Cup and hence no World Cup, no WTTC where Ishikawa, Ito and Hirano have never won the trials, and by extension no ATTC. Last but not least, no T2.

      Ito, Hirano and Ishikawa, would still be ahead in that order, and the point gaps among these 3 would be nearly the same. However, Hayata would be in 4th place and behind by only 715 pts instead of Sato where she trailed by 2700 pts.


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    7. Top | #1205
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      A Japanese blogger by the handle kittyyoyaji, likely a female, offers her analysis and interpretations of the selection criteria in a 12-part series early this year.

      The interesting part starts from Part 5, where she raises the question of fairness when it comes to the 3rd player, that choppers and those lower-ranked players who happen to have the wrong dominant hand never stood a chance from the get-go.

      Basically, she argues the existence of an unspoken rule by citing a passage from Miyazaki's new book, "Japanese Table Tennis Overcomes China", published on 2018/10/1. Since the book was published shortly after the selection criteria were released on 2018/09/22, she believes the views expressed by Miyazaki in that passage reflects how the selection criteria would be interpreted by the Development Headquarters, which have the final say on the 3rd player, and of which Miyazaki is the director.

      Miyazaki's passage goes like this:

      First, out of the 3 representatives, select up to 2 from the top of the world ranking. And the 3rd is a player who can play doubles with either of them. If the top 2 are both right-handed, the top left-handed player should be chosen. If the top 2 dominant hands are split between left and right, choose the player ranked 3rd.
      Another thing is that we have the notion that “cutman and attackman (offensive-type players who excel at driving) cannot form doubles.” So, if the top 2 are cutman, the 3rd player is likely to be a cutman. If the top 2 are attackman, the 3rd player is likely to be an attackman.
      In this way, unfairness arises unless a certain level of mechanical selection is made.
      http://kittyoyaji.blog.fc2.com/blog-entry-979.html
      ⑥東京五輪代表 選考基準2
      基準2 団体戦代表1名
      基準1の代表候補選手とダブルスが組め、団体戦でシングルス及びダブルスにて活躍が期待できる選手1名

      この基準2は 基準1と異なり 裁量そのものの基準である
      筆者が素直にこの条文を読むと
      シングルス代表に決定した選手2名と過去にダブルスを組んだ成績や相性などを考慮
      また 候補選手自身のダブルス成績やシングルス成績も考慮して 1名を選出する
      と解釈できる
      筆者は自分の解釈において この基準2は十分評価できるし
      後述の世界ランク日本女子3位の機械的な適用よりも優れていると認識していた

      ところが まったく異なる解釈が提示されたのだ
      (ここからは 宮﨑義仁著「日本卓球は中国に打ち勝つ」(とくに166P~170P)を読んで
      閲覧者個々人が自分の考えをもって 読み進めてほしい
      ここに書いてあるから同調するのでは判断放棄している)
      宮﨑義仁強化本部長は代表選考の実質的な責任者と 筆者は認識しているが
      卓球協会が代表選考基準を公表した2018/09/22直後に
      役職名で同書を発売しているのだから 当然代表選考もこの解釈で行われるのだろう

      長くなって恐縮だが 重要な文章なので正確を期しておく
      引用
       まず代表3人のうち、2人までは世界ランキングの上位から2人を選ぶ。そして3
      番目は、その2人のどちらかとダブルスが組める人だ。上位2人がともに右利きな
      ら、左利きで最上位の人を選ぶし、上位2人が左利きなら、次は右利きで最上位の人
      を選ぶ。上位2人の利き手が左右に割れていれば、ランキング3番手の人を選ぶ。
       もうひとつ、私たちは、「カットマンと攻撃マン(ドライブを得意とする攻撃型の選手)
      はダブルスを組ませられない」という考え方を持っているので、上位2人のうちひと
      りがカットマンであれば、3人目はカットマンである可能性が高い。上位2人が攻撃
      マンであれば、3人目も攻撃マンである可能性が高い。
       このように、ある程度は機械的に選んでいかないと、不公平が生じる。
      https://www.sankei.com/life/news/181...280016-n1.html


      https://www.amazon.co.jp/%E6%97%A5%E.../dp/4396115490


      In later parts, she presents different theoretical scenarios how Ishikawa will get selected as the 3rd player over choppers, or those attackers better at doubles, just because she's left-handed and ranked highest. She suggests that Miyazaki might not even realize his own obsession and bias.

      http://kittyoyaji.blog.fc2.com/blog-entry-982.html
      平野美宇(9位)/石川佳純(3位)ペアと伊藤美誠(7位)/早田ひな(42位)ペアの成績を比較してみればよい
      両方とも右左ペアだが 平野/石川のほうが個々の順位が高いペアなのに 実績は芳しくない
      むしろ 伊藤/石川あるいは平野/早田のほうが過去の成績がよい
      石川・平野はシングルス向き選手であって ダブルス巧者ではなく
      伊藤・早田はふたりともダブルス巧者なのだ
      早田ひなは佐藤瞳とのペアでも短期間であったが好成績を上げている
      単なる利き手の右左の組み合わせよりは ふたりの選手がダブルス巧者かどうかのほうがよほど重要なのだ

      それはカット型にもいえて HAN YingやSUH Hyowonほかはドライブ型と普通にペアを組んでいる
      佐藤瞳や橋本帆乃香がドライブ型とペアを組めないのかは 協会主導で試せばよいのであって
      何もしないで代表選考から除外するのは むしろ協会の怠慢なのだ
      そうはいっても 現実問題として団体戦にカット型が加わること ダブルスを組むことを不安視する
      卓球経験者は多いかもしれない 筆者も不安はある
      ...
      つまり 右左ペア限定とは 右利き選手はどんなにランクが高くても最大2名に抑えて
      左利き選手はどんなにランクが低くても 1名を確保するということだ
      本来なら トップ16選手ほどが 右利きも左利きもカット型もドライブ型も
      同じ土俵で優劣を競うのが代表選考であるべきなのに
      カット型は1位か2位とハードルを高く限定され
      右利き選手はどんなにランクが高くても最大2枠を9名で競うのに対して
      左利き選手はどんなにランクが低くても最低1枠を確保されて 3名で競うだけだ
      これが公平であるというのは相当無理があると 筆者は思う
      宮﨑強化本部長は機械的に選べば公平だと思いこんでいるようだが
      その条件自体が恣意的なものならば 機械的に選ぼうが公平は保証されない
      Compare the results between Hirano(9th)/Ishikawa(3rd) and Ito(7th)/Hayata(42th)
      Both are right-left pairs, but Hirano/Ishikawa is the pair with the higher individual ranking, yet the results are not good.
      OTOH, Ito/Ishikawa or Hirano/Hayata have better results
      Ishikawa and Hirano are singles players, not doubles masters
      Both Ito and Hayata are doubles masters
      Hayata performed well pairing with Sato for a short period
      It’s more important to see if the 2 players are doubles players than just the right-/left-handedness

      The same can be said for cut-type, where HAN Ying, SUH Hyowon and others are usually paired with drive-type
      Whether Sato Hitomi and Hashimoto Honoka cannot pair with drive-type should be tried by the association's initiative
      Doing nothing and excluding it from the representative selection is rather an association's neglect
      That said, I'm concerned about the practical problems of including cut-type for team event and the pairing for doubles
      Perhaps many people have played table tennis, and I'm worried too

      However, cut-type players who came in 3rd shouldn’t be ruled out
      You should lament the lack of ability for those placed 4th and below
      ...
      In other words, right-left pair limit means that right-handed players are limited to a maximum of 2 no matter how high the ranking is
      No matter how low, 1 left-handed player is guaranteed
      Originally, there are right-handed, left-handed, cut and drive in the top 16 players
      Although the representative selection should be about superiority and inferiority in the same competition
      The cut type is limited to high hurdles as 1st or 2nd place
      9 right-handed players compete for up to 2 slots no matter how high the ranking is
      At least 1 slot is reserved for a left-handed player no matter how low the ranking is, with only 3 players competing for it
      The author thinks that this is very unreasonable
      It seems that Miyazaki, director of Development Headquarters, thinks that it is fair if he chooses mechanically
      If the conditions themselves are arbitrary, choose mechanically but fairness is not guaranteed



      http://kittyoyaji.blog.fc2.com/blog-entry-984.html
      これからの1年を 優遇される選手はこれまで通りやればよいとして
      除外を明言された選手たちはその不安に耐えていくのだ
      実際の選考以前に 代表争いを目前にしてすでに 彼女たちの精神面に大きな負担を強いられた
      宮﨑強化本部長がそれを意図したとは考えないが
      スタートから精神面の大きなハンデ戦は平等な競争といえるのかどうか
      ...
      選手も関係者も無言を貫くとすれば 誰かが声を上げる必要があるのだろう
      卓球の経験もない素人の筆者は
      blogやtwitterでスポーツ関連の妄想を書き散らかして面白がっているだけだが
      今回ばかりは多少の使命感に駆られたとしても 卓球の神様のバチは当たらないだろう

      言葉というものは
      権威者や有名人が発したから残るのではない
      真実の言葉は
      誰にも打ち消すことはできず 真実であるかぎり生き残る
      その発言者がたとえ無力者や無名人であっても
      In the coming year, it would be nice if the favored players can continue to do so.
      Players who have been explicitly excluded are suffering from this uneasiness.
      Before the actual selection, the fight for the representatives is already imminent, and they have already beared a great burden mentally.
      I don't think Miyazaki of Development Headquarters intended it, but can the big obstacle course that's played on a spiritual level from the beginning be regarded as a fair competition?
      ...
      If both players and officials are silent, someone will need to speak up
      An amateur writer who has no experience in table tennis
      It’s just interesting to write about sports-related delusions on blogs and twitter
      Even if you are driven by a little sense of mission this time, the punishment of Table Tennis God will not hit

      Words are
      It doesn't remain because it originated from authority and celebrity
      The word of truth is
      No one can negate and which will survive as long as it is true
      Even if the speaker is helpless or anonymous

      http://kittyoyaji.blog.fc2.com/blog-entry-986.html
      〇付録
      宮﨑義仁強化本部長への10の質問

      質問
      1 伊藤美誠(シングルス選出1)
      2 平野美宇(シングルス選出2)

      3 佐藤瞳(カット型除外)
      4 芝田沙季(右利き3人目除外)
      5 加藤美優(右利き3人目除外)
      6 橋本帆乃香(カット型除外)
      7 石川佳純(左利き1人目)
      仮に上記の場合
      団体要員は石川選手が選出される
      この選出は公平なのでしょうか?

      質問
      五輪代表選考基準2に
      カット型の3番手除外・右利き(左利き)3人目の除外を
      明文化すべきではないでしょうか?
      これほど選手への影響が甚大な条件は
      オープンな場で執行部の責任を明確にすべきで
      密室の話し合いで適用されるべきではありません 

      質問
      人数の多い右利き選手たちはどれほどランクが高くても 2枠に制限を受け
      3分の1程度の数の左利き選手たちはどれほどランクが低くても 1枠が確保される
      この競争が平等である根拠はなんでしょうか?

      質問
      確実に選出される左利き1番手選手は
      具体的に 日本女子何位まで救済されるのでしょうか?
      10位内ですか 20位内ですか?

      質問
      リオ五輪の団体要員は日本女子3位ならカット型選手も代表に選出されたのに
      カット型選手が日本女子3位に手が届く位置まで来た東京五輪は 選考から除外される
      この変更の理由を教えてください

      質問
      リオ五輪団体戦 日本チーム
      石川佳純(左)シングルス2点 福原愛(右)/伊藤美誠(右)ペア
      石川選手がいるにもかかわらず 右左ペアのセオリーを無視したチーム戦略に対しての
      見解を教えてください
      ...
      質問
      右左ペアでないと団体戦を戦えないというのは
      単に指揮する監督の能力が低いだけではないですか?
      村上恭和元代表監督が復帰すれば
      右左ペアでなくとも問題ないでしょう

      質問
      カット型や同一利き手3人目の除外を著作で公表したことで 排除される選手たちには
      選考争い以前にすでに 精神面へ不安という大きな負担を強いられました
      優遇される選手との この大きなハンデ戦は公平といえるのでしょうか?

      質問
      結局 全選手の結果を数値化した世界ランクの前では
      ある意図をもった選考条件はその不自然さが際立つだけではありませんか?
      現協会執行部がその不自然さをもちこたえられるとは 思えませんが
      〇 Appendix
      10 questions for Yoshihito Miyazaki

      Question
      1 Ito (Singles selection 1)
      2 Hirano (Singles selection 2)

      3 Sato (cut type excluded)
      4 Shibata (Right-handed 3rd person excluded)
      5 Kato (Right-handed 3rd person excluded)
      6 Hashimoto (cut type excluded)
      7 Ishikawa (left-handed 1st person)
      In the above case
      Ishikawa is elected as a team member
      Is this election fair?

      Question
      To Olympic team selection criteria 2
      Exclusion of cut-type/right-handed(left-handed) player who comes in 3rd
      Shouldn't it be written clearly?
      The conditions that have such a huge impact on players
      The responsibility of the executive committee should be clarified in an open space
      It should not be applied behind doors

      Question
      Right-handed players in such a large number are limited to 2 slots no matter how high the ranking
      About 1/3 of left-handed players will get 1 slot no matter how low the ranking
      Where is the basis for the equality of competition?

      Question
      The 1st left-handed player will definitely be selected
      Specifically, how many Japanese girls will be rescued?
      Are you ranked within the top 10 or top 20?

      Question
      A cut-type player who came in 3rd would be selected as a team member for the Rio Olympics
      Yet for the Tokyo Olympics, a cut-type player in 3rd place will be excluded from the selection
      Please tell us the reason for this change

      Question
      Rio Olympic team game Japan team
      Ishikawa (left-handed), 2 singles, Fukuhara (right-handed)/Ito (right-handed) for doubles
      Despite the presence of Ishikawa, the team strategy for ignoring the theory of the left-right pair
      Please tell us your opinion
      ...
      Question
      The fact that you can’t fight in team event without a right/left pair
      Isn't it just because the ability of the director to lead is low?
      If former director Murakami returns,
      It doesn’t matter if it’s not a right/left pair.

      Question
      Since your publication explicitly states that those cut-type and/or same-dominant hand players who come in 3rd will be excluded
      Before the selection competition has even started, they are already forced to bear a heavy burden of mental anxiety
      Compared to the favored players, is this big obstacle fair?

      Question
      After all, the results of all the top players in world ranking could be quantified
      Wouldn't the selection condition with a certain intention stand out from its unnaturalness?
      I don't think the current executive committee of the association will be able to withstand this unnaturalness.
      Last edited by zeio; 12-11-2019 at 09:39 AM.

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    9. Top | #1206
      Vlad Celler is online now
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      Thank !!!

    10. Top | #1207
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      Imo the Fukuhara/Ito pairing was Japan's downfall in Rio. Also considering how conservative JNT has been so far it wouldn't surprise me if they picked 3 of the most highly ranked right-handers if such a situation did present itself.

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    12. Top | #1208
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      //// 3 of the most highly ranked right-handers ////
      3 right - hande ?

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      Quote Originally Posted by pingpongpaddy View Post
      Bear in mind Hirano won the Asian Championship beating all china could throw at her. In fact her problem is that asian success caused china to analyse her game very thoroughly, and they have found some answers
      If we are going back to 2017 to decide what should happen in 2020 without weighting such events appropriately, something is not right.
      Cobra Kai TT Exponent - No mercy in this dojo, no matter your rating or the score. All spin, no power or footwork.

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    15. Top | #1210
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      Quote Originally Posted by zeio View Post
      Let's see what would happen if we look at the Opens only. Nothing else. No invitational events such as Asian Cup and hence no World Cup, no WTTC where Ishikawa, Ito and Hirano have never won the trials, and by extension no ATTC. Last but not least, no T2.

      Ito, Hirano and Ishikawa, would still be ahead in that order, and the point gaps among these 3 would be nearly the same. However, Hayata would be in 4th place and behind by only 715 pts instead of Sato where she trailed by 2700 pts.

      Such comparisons, like I mentioned earlier when someone compared Hayata and Kato, do not do justice to the fact that the higher ranked players do play fewer events partly because they have those invitations and better seeding.

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      No matter how much we love Hayata, we always know JNT will 90% send Ito, Hirano and Ishikawa for Olympic team event. You can tell when they keep trying Hirano/Ishikawa WD pair in the recent half year, but didn’t try Hirano/Hayata combination this year at all (did they?)

      Then honestly speaking, Hirano and Ishikawa should have similar chance on getting Olympic single medal which depends a lot on their seeding.

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      whats sad for Hirano is that 2024 is so far away and if Ishikawa should get out of the picture, in addition to her current rivals Hayata, Sato, Hashimoto, Kato, there is Kihara, Nagasaki, Harimoto and others who are going to be competitive...

      I've listened to some interviews of Hirano and it wouldn't be very surprising if she gave up TT at a very young age. I hope not

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      Quote Originally Posted by Jacky Kwok View Post
      No matter how much we love Hayata, we always know JNT will 90% send Ito, Hirano and Ishikawa for Olympic team event. You can tell when they keep trying Hirano/Ishikawa WD pair in the recent half year, but didn’t try Hirano/Hayata combination this year at all (did they?)

      Then honestly speaking, Hirano and Ishikawa should have similar chance on getting Olympic single medal which depends a lot on their seeding.

      In other words, JNT has already made a choice - A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush....

      ....You can tell when they keep trying Hirano/Ishikawa WD pair in the recent half year, but didn’t try Hirano/Hayata combination this year at all (did they?) ...

      Here in Germany Platinum will be seen what the position of the JNT ..... Who will be declared in the WD and XD ....
      Last edited by Vlad Celler; 12-11-2019 at 04:39 PM.

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      I also heard in an interview that she (Miu Hirano) plans to leave when she reaches 25 ...
      (although perhaps this is a translation inaccuracy?)

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      WTGF draws are out. IK meets LSW, and HM meets WYD. According to ITF H2H stats, IK has never beaten LSW in 11 tries. HM lost her one match up with WYD at this year's German Open.

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      To what extent is this the last chance for Hirano to make the singles? Do the results of the Top 12 event in Japan affect the decision at all?

      If not then Hirano will need to muster 110% against Wang...

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      Quote Originally Posted by daejoons View Post
      To what extent is this the last chance for Hirano to make the singles? Do the results of the Top 12 event in Japan affect the decision at all?

      If not then Hirano will need to muster 110% against Wang...
      For Olympic Singles it's only based on ITTF World Ranking for calendar year 2019. Top 12 will matter for the 3rd spot.

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      Quote Originally Posted by NextLevel View Post
      Such comparisons, like I mentioned earlier when someone compared Hayata and Kato, do not do justice to the fact that the higher ranked players do play fewer events partly because they have those invitations and better seeding.


      The whole point of having this comparison is to show the huge edge, even without all these extra points, that the top few enjoy over the others merely because they have a much higher starting point on the world ranking, which is why they don't have to play as much in the first place.

      Quote Originally Posted by zeio View Post
      ...

      Ishikawa, Ito, Hirano have been seeded year long and will until the year end. Sato, Kato and Hashimoto were seeded until Czech Open. Sato was seeded again in German Open because some of the top CNT players took breaks.

      OTOH, Hayata and Shibata have had to play 3 to 4 rounds of qualification to reach the main draw. Get them all to start from qualification and see how many of them make the main draw.

      ----------------------

      Did some lookups. I mixed up Kato and Shibata.

      It was Shibata that was seeded until Czech Open. Kato was seeded only in Bulgaria Open and Czech Open.

      That makes Hayata the only one among the top 8 on the JNT to start in prelim all year long.

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      Quote Originally Posted by pongfugrasshopper View Post
      For Olympic Singles it's only based on ITTF World Ranking for calendar year 2019. Top 12 will matter for the 3rd spot.
      Japan Top 12 won't matter. It's only used to determine 1 spot of the team for WTTC 2020. It's in the title of the competition.

      http://www.jtta.or.jp/Portals/0/imag...prospectus.pdf
      LIONカップ第24回卓球ジャパントップ12 SENDAI
      (兼2020世界卓球日本代表最終選考会)
      LION Cup 24th Table Tennis Japan Top 12 SENDAI
      (And 2020 WTTC Japan National Team Final Trial)

      In the selection criteria for WTTC 2020, the 3rd player for Tokyo 2020 and winner of Japan Top 12 are listed separately.

      http://www.jtta.or.jp/Portals/0/imag...31_wttcpus.pdf
      1.男女代表選手の選考方法
      (1)代表選手の人数は5名とし、以下の基準を満たした者の中から選出する。
      ①第32回オリンピック競技大会(2020/東京)卓球競技に出場するシングルス代表候補選手[2名]※2020年1月発表の世界ランキング
      ②第32回オリンピック競技大会(2020/東京)卓球競技団体代表候補選手[1名]※2020年1月6日(月)発表
      ③2020年全日本卓球選手権大会シングルス優勝者[1名]※2020年1月19日(日)決定
      ④国内最終選考会の優勝者[1名](2019年12月21日:仙台市)

      (2)上記①~④により選出された人数に、同一選手が重複して選出されるなどして5名に満たない場合は、次の2点を勘案し強化本部にて選手を選出する。
      ※2020年1月28日(火)発表
      ・2019年1月以降の主要国際大会の実績と内容の評価
      ・国際競争力向上への高い潜在性があると思われる選手の評価
      1. Selection method for male and female players
      (1) The number of representative athletes shall be 5 and selected from those who meet the following criteria:
      ① Singles candidates for the 32nd Olympic Games (2020 / Tokyo) Table Tennis [2 players] * World ranking announced in January 2020
      ② 32nd Olympic Games (2020 / Tokyo) table tennis team representative candidate [1 person] * announced on January 6, 2020
      ③ 2020 All Japan Table Tennis Championships singles winner [1 person] * Determined on Sunday, January 19, 2020
      ④ Domestic final trial winner [1 person] (December 21, 2019: Sendai City)

      (2) If the number of players selected by ① to ④ above is less than 5 due to the same player being selected more than once, the player will be selected by the Development Headquarters considering the following 2 points:
      ※ Announced January 28, 2020
      ・ Evaluation of achievements and contents of major international competitions since January 2019
      ・ Evaluation of players who seem to have high potential to improve international competitiveness
      Last edited by zeio; 12-12-2019 at 02:46 AM.

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      Quote Originally Posted by Takkyu_wa_inochi View Post
      whats sad for Hirano is that 2024 is so far away and if Ishikawa should get out of the picture, in addition to her current rivals Hayata, Sato, Hashimoto, Kato, there is Kihara, Nagasaki, Harimoto and others who are going to be competitive...

      I've listened to some interviews of Hirano and it wouldn't be very surprising if she gave up TT at a very young age. I hope not
      No way will my Idol get out of the picture. She's determined to stir the pot for another 12 years. So watch out, Miwa Harimoto!


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