Japan Women's Race to Tokyo 2020 Singles

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For Hayata to go, Ishikawa has to go.

The problem boils down to the doubles. Both Ishikawa and Hayata are left-handed, making it naturally difficult.

In case of Ishikawa/Ito/Hayata, they will essentially be limited to Ishikawa/Ito and Ito/Hayata for doubles. In either case, Ito will have to give up 1 singles. If they go with Ito/Hayata, Ishikawa will more than likely drop 2 points. Whatever the case and draw, the doubles will be a must-win for Japan. After that, Hayata and Ito must win their singles. You need a miracle for that to happen.

The roles of doubles and the 3rd player are just too important now.

https://www.tabletennisdaily.com/fo...for-Tokyo-2020&p=220496&viewfull=1#post220496
New Olympic playing system:
Tokyo 2020 will be played with the new Olympic playing system. The playing order will be as following:

BC vs YZ (Doubles);
A vs X;
C vs Z;
A vs Y;
B vs X

There will be no break during the team match because all 5 matches will be fixed after the toss procedure. The team match consist of maximum 1 doubles and 4 singles matches.
 
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For Hayata to go, Ishikawa has to go.

The problem boils down to the doubles. Both Ishikawa and Hayata are left-handed, making it naturally difficult.

In case of Ishikawa/Ito/Hayata, they will essentially be limited to Ishikawa/Ito and Ito/Hayata for doubles. In either case, Ito will have to give up 1 singles. If they go with Ito/Hayata, Ishikawa will more than likely drop 2 points. Whatever the case and draw, the doubles will be a must-win for Japan. After that, Hayata and Ito must win their singles. You need a miracle for that to happen.

The roles of doubles and the 3rd player are just too important now.

https://www.tabletennisdaily.com/fo...for-Tokyo-2020&p=220496&viewfull=1#post220496
New Olympic playing system:
I understand it is up to JNT coach to decide who from advanced players will play doubles and who 2 singles?
For now most likely Ito is the main weapon for china team, so she will play 2 singles, meaning no doubles. So we can have ishikawa/hirano in doubles. I also think they can take extra spare player for changes. So it is also possible that all these 4 players will go and depending on current form JNT coach will decide who is going to play in the final (if the advance).
 
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For Hayata to go, Ishikawa has to go.

The problem boils down to the doubles. Both Ishikawa and Hayata are left-handed, making it naturally difficult.

In case of Ishikawa/Ito/Hayata, they will essentially be limited to Ishikawa/Ito and Ito/Hayata for doubles. In either case, Ito will have to give up 1 singles. If they go with Ito/Hayata, Ishikawa will more than likely drop 2 points. Whatever the case and draw, the doubles will be a must-win for Japan. After that, Hayata and Ito must win their singles. You need a miracle for that to happen.

The roles of doubles and the 3rd player are just too important now.

https://www.tabletennisdaily.com/fo...for-Tokyo-2020&p=220496&viewfull=1#post220496
New Olympic playing system:

I agree that the scenario of sending Ishikawa, Hayata, and Ito has its limitations, but I don't think the doubles problem is as bad as other potential combinations such as a lineup of Hirano, Ishikawa, and Ito.

  • The Ishikawa/Hirano doubles combination has had shaky results. Not only does this pairing lose in the middle rounds of the All Japan Championships, but it has also lost to the North Korean Pair of Jeon Jihee/Yang Haeun twice, and to the North Korean pair of Cha Hyo Sim/Kim Nam Hae. They may also have a hard time in the Olympics against Germany with Shan Xiaona/Petrissa Solja and the Hong Kong Team who is known to focus a lot on doubles.
  • If you go with Ishikawa/Ito, then Hirano has to play 2 singles matches, and her record against foreigners is shaky compared to Ito or Ishikawa's record. The Ishikawa/Ito doubles pairing also hasn't achieved the success that the Hayata/Ito pairing has achieved. Hayata/Ito hasn't lost to an non-Chinese pair since the Korean Open of 2017.
  • If you go with Hirano/Ito, you have the same problem as Hayata/Ishikawa where two players with the same playing hand are playing doubles together.


In essence, the Ishikawa, Hayata, Ito lineup is a long shot to defeat the Chinese Team, but honestly, any lineup that the JNT puts forward is bound to be a heavy underdog against China. At least this lineup in generally more stable against non-Chinese teams.

The other interesting prospect is Hayata, Ito, Hirano, but that might be too bold for the JTTA to consider sending to the Olympics. Hayata/Hirano has beaten 2 pairs with Chinese players in the past, and it also allows Ito, who had the strongest record against Chinese players last year, to play two singles matches. It's a hit-or-miss lineup, but it's very intriguing.

Mika Baba needs to use the World Team Cup this November to experiment with different lineups. In the World Team Cup, at least Japan will have 5 players to choose from, so they can send a different lineup per match to see which one could work the best for the Olympics. During the Olympics, you're pretty much stuck fielding the same 3 players each match. The 4th player (the alternate) can only play if any of the 3 players sustains a serious injury or becomes so ill that he cannot play, and a medical certificate is needed, so Japan can't fake it either. That's why Japan cannot mess up this selection.
 
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I agree that the scenario of sending Ishikawa, Hayata, and Ito has its limitations, but I don't think the doubles problem is as bad as other potential combinations such as a lineup of Hirano, Ishikawa, and Ito.

  • The Ishikawa/Hirano doubles combination has had shaky results. Not only does this pairing lose in the middle rounds of the All Japan Championships, but it has also lost to the North Korean Pair of Jeon Jihee/Yang Haeun twice, and to the North Korean pair of Cha Hyo Sim/Kim Nam Hae. They may also have a hard time in the Olympics against Germany with Shan Xiaona/Petrissa Solja and the Hong Kong Team who is known to focus a lot on doubles.
  • If you go with Ishikawa/Ito, then Hirano has to play 2 singles matches, and her record against foreigners is shaky compared to Ito or Ishikawa's record. The Ishikawa/Ito doubles pairing also hasn't achieved the success that the Hayata/Ito pairing has achieved. Hayata/Ito hasn't lost to an non-Chinese pair since the Korean Open of 2017.
  • If you go with Hirano/Ito, you have the same problem as Hayata/Ishikawa where two players with the same playing hand are playing doubles together.


In essence, the Ishikawa, Hayata, Ito lineup is a long shot to defeat the Chinese Team, but honestly, any lineup that the JNT puts forward is bound to be a heavy underdog against China. At least this lineup in generally more stable against non-Chinese teams.

The other interesting prospect is Hayata, Ito, Hirano, but that might be too bold for the JTTA to consider sending to the Olympics. Hayata/Hirano has beaten 2 pairs with Chinese players in the past, and it also allows Ito, who had the strongest record against Chinese players last year, to play two singles matches. It's a hit-or-miss lineup, but it's very intriguing.

Mika Baba needs to use the World Team Cup this November to experiment with different lineups. In the World Team Cup, at least Japan will have 5 players to choose from, so they can send a different lineup per match to see which one could work the best for the Olympics. During the Olympics, you're pretty much stuck fielding the same 3 players each match. The 4th player (the alternate) can only play if any of the 3 players sustains a serious injury or becomes so ill that he cannot play, and a medical certificate is needed, so Japan can't fake it either. That's why Japan cannot mess up this selection.

That means you cannot change players during whole tournament…? I think it does not have to be like this, you have some players in the basket and it is up to you (coach) to decide who is going to play doubles and singles for each match.
The other thing is as I remember ito/hirano played doubles together few years ago with good results.
The most important thing is who china is going to send. Now they have too many great players. Most of them besides Ding Ning were rarely lost to foreigners. Of course the easiest oponent for any of them is ishikawa and hirano. Ito is tougher but hayata we do not know, since she did not meet any of chinese since january win.
I think china is going to send Liu shiwen, Cheng meng, wang manyu.
 
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That means you cannot change players during whole tournament…? I think it does not have to be like this, you have some players in the basket and it is up to you (coach) to decide who is going to play doubles and singles for each match.
The other thing is as I remember ito/hirano played doubles together few years ago with good results.
The most important thing is who china is going to send. Now they have too many great players. Most of them besides Ding Ning were rarely lost to foreigners. Of course the easiest oponent for any of them is ishikawa and hirano. Ito is tougher but hayata we do not know, since she did not meet any of chinese since january win.
I think china is going to send Liu shiwen, Cheng meng, wang manyu.

Yes, it's a maximum of 3 players per team. You can change the lineups of who plays doubles and singles every match, but you're stuck with the same 3 players throughout the team tournament. For example, if Japan's initial lineup is Hirano, Ishikawa and Ito, and Ito for example is having a rough tournament, they can't replace Ito with Hayata for the next match and send another 3-player lineup. That's why the 3 player quota is very cruel on strong Table Tennis nations like China and Japan, who could probably field more than 3 players who deserve to be in the Olympics. China's dilemma of who to send to Tokyo is probably even more complex than Japan's dilemma because it has so many good players, but at least they can rest assured that whoever they send will still be the favorites to win Gold.

I also believe an Ito/Hirano doubles pairing has potential. Their last match was a close 3-2 loss to Sun Yingsha and Chen Xingtong in last year's Qatar Open. It would be wise for JTTA to send this pairing to World Tour events to test if this pairing is viable. Remember, Hirano and Ito have both developed and tweaked their playing styles since 2014 to 2015, so it's not automatic that this pair would make a good doubles team today just because they were a good pairing 4 years ago.
 
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Yes, it's a maximum of 3 players per team. You can change the lineups of who plays doubles and singles every match, but you're stuck with the same 3 players throughout the team tournament. For example, if Japan's initial lineup is Hirano, Ishikawa and Ito, and Ito for example is having a rough tournament, they can't replace Ito with Hayata for the next match and send another 3-player lineup. That's why the 3 player quota is very cruel on strong Table Tennis nations like China and Japan, who could probably field more than 3 players who deserve to be in the Olympics. China's dilemma of who to send to Tokyo is probably even more complex than Japan's dilemma because it has so many good players, but at least they can rest assured that whoever they send will still be the favorites to win Gold.

I also believe an Ito/Hirano doubles pairing has potential. Their last match was a close 3-2 loss to Sun Yingsha and Chen Xingtong in last year's Qatar Open. It would be wise for JTTA to send this pairing to World Tour events to test if this pairing is viable. Remember, Hirano and Ito have both developed and tweaked their playing styles since 2014 to 2015, so it's not automatic that this pair would make a good doubles team today just because they were a good pairing 4 years ago.
1. How about injuries - is there no rule to change player who is injured or ill before the match starts? in that case they could replace somebody
2. apart from that - they still can mix with 3 players they send, let's say ishikawa, ito and hayata. So for instance untill final ishikawa plays 2 singles and hayata with ito doubles. in the final, ishikawa play doubles with weaker player let's say hayata, so ito can play 2 singles.

For me whoever they send the probability of wining with china is close to 0 now, but we will see. Young players will definitely work hard to pick the form for the olympics.
Last time japan male team were quite close to beat china. This old system had some good strategic points. After JM defeated XX it was 1:1, if they just could win doubles, there was high probability in the last match JM defeat ZJK (who was not in best form that time)
 
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1. How about injuries - is there no rule to change player who is injured or ill before the match starts? in that case they could replace somebody
2. apart from that - they still can mix with 3 players they send, let's say ishikawa, ito and hayata. So for instance untill final ishikawa plays 2 singles and hayata with ito doubles. in the final, ishikawa play doubles with weaker player let's say hayata, so ito can play 2 singles.

For me whoever they send the probability of wining with china is close to 0 now, but we will see. Young players will definitely work hard to pick the form for the olympics.
Last time japan male team were quite close to beat china. This old system had some good strategic points. After JM defeated XX it was 1:1, if they just could win doubles, there was high probability in the last match JM defeat ZJK (who was not in best form that time)

Yes, they can replace a player who is injured or ill before the match starts, but the injury or illness must be real and legitimate. Let me illustrate:

Let's say for example, JTTA believes that the Ishikawa and Hayata/Ito lineup will be best against all Non-Chinese Teams because Ishikawa is consistent against Non-Chinese players and Hayata/Ito hasn't lost to a Non-Chinese doubles team since 2017. However, let's say for example that JTTA also believes that the Hirano, Hayata and Ito lineup will give them the best chance against Team China because of its youth, fearlessness and unpredictability. (Again, this is only an example. I, in no way, know what JTTA is truly thinking or how they assess their players.)

In theory, Japan could send Ishikawa, Hayata and Ito to play all matches until the Semifinals for the Olympics. Then, when Japan faces China in the Final, Ishikawa would get "injured" and claim that she cannot play anymore in the tournament in order for Hirano, the alternate, to replace her for the match against China, and give Japan a better chance of winning.

However, in reality, this is harder to pull off since Ishikawa would need to get a medical certificate from a doctor certifying that she cannot play. She can't just "claim injury" without proof since this is the Olympic rules for injury replacement. Of course, if Ishikawa wanted to take one for the team and purposely injure herself, so Hirano can play, then the injury replacement would be valid. :p Therefore, unless there really is a legitimate injury, Japan is stuck with the 3 players they choose, though they can obviously change who plays singles and doubles each match.

Actually, I won't be surprised if the scenario I described above happens in the Team World Cup this year. Japan may play Ishikawa, Ito and Hayata until the Semifinals, and bench Ishikawa for Hirano in the Final against China. It would be similar to when Japan changed their lineup in the WTTC 2018 to allow Hirano to play 2 singles over Ishikawa. Japan knows that they have nothing to lose anyway against China so it may decide to be bold and daring with their lineup choice during the Team World Cup where they have a pool of 5 players to choose from.
 
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For Hayata to go, Ishikawa has to go.

The problem boils down to the doubles. Both Ishikawa and Hayata are left-handed, making it naturally difficult.

In case of Ishikawa/Ito/Hayata, they will essentially be limited to Ishikawa/Ito and Ito/Hayata for doubles. In either case, Ito will have to give up 1 singles. If they go with Ito/Hayata, Ishikawa will more than likely drop 2 points. Whatever the case and draw, the doubles will be a must-win for Japan. After that, Hayata and Ito must win their singles. You need a miracle for that to happen.

The roles of doubles and the 3rd player are just too important now.

https://www.tabletennisdaily.com/fo...for-Tokyo-2020&p=220496&viewfull=1#post220496
New Olympic playing system:

This is not true. Ishikawa gets two singles but Ito and Hayata get one each as well as the doubles. If they can't win they can't win. Nothing to do with Ishikawa.
 
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Somehow I think now Japan did a good selection, while china with those marvelous maybe not.
At the end it does not matter if you are best in japan, it matters if you can beat foreig opponents. So for the youngsters most of you admit they have hard way to go, because they need to play qualification stage in tours and then (if the pass) probably they will meet chinese player very soon. While top rated players have easier way and meeting top chinese player early shouldn't happen, well:
1.Somehow top 3 japanese players advanced to top 10, how they did it? They just defeated most of foreign players, sometimes chinese. So if hayata, kato or kihara want to play JNT, first they have to show they can beat all foregin players in preliminary stage. Once they do it regularly, we can say they are simillar level to ishikawa/ito/hirano. But if they want to replace top 3 players, they need also to defeat chinese players. If not why we should change top 3 when silver medal is almost guaranted. So I am not afraid if hayata or kato to go olympics. But first they have to show they beat top players. Next week they will have good opportunity.
2. china now send a lot players for tours, many of them play qualification stage, so it is also very likely that players like Ishikawa meet ion first round chinese player not top rated, but it does not mean weaker.
 
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China Open, Hongkong Open (for Hina Hayata is still questionable participation), Japan Open ..... For Hina Hayata and Kato Miu - qualification ....In qualifying, the likelihood of meeting with Chinese women of the second or third team is almost inevitable ......
Let's wait for the results ... It’s not long to wait ...
Personally, in my opinion, perhaps in the WS semifinal in all these three rounds there will be only Chinese women .....:(
 
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This is not true. Ishikawa gets two singles but Ito and Hayata get one each as well as the doubles. If they can't win they can't win. Nothing to do with Ishikawa.

bA0hYjs.jpg


Talk to me when you're sober.

If they go with Ito/Hayata, Ishikawa will more than likely drop 2 points. Whatever the case and draw, the doubles will be a must-win for Japan. After that, Hayata and Ito must win their singles. You need a miracle for that to happen.
JPN as ABCJPN as XYZ
Scenario 1Scenario 2Scenario 1Scenario 2
Ito/Hayata
Ishikawa
Hayata
Ishikawa
Ito
Hayata/Ito
Ishikawa
Ito
Ishikawa
Hayata
Ito/Hayata
Ishikawa
Hayata
Ito
Ishikawa
Hayata/Ito
Ishikawa
Ito
Hayata
Ishikawa
 
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bA0hYjs.jpg


Talk to me when you're sober.


JPN as ABCJPN as XYZ
Scenario 1Scenario 2Scenario 1Scenario 2
Ito/Hayata
Ishikawa
Hayata
Ishikawa
Ito
Hayata/Ito
Ishikawa
Ito
Ishikawa
Hayata
Ito/Hayata
Ishikawa
Hayata
Ito
Ishikawa
Hayata/Ito
Ishikawa
Ito
Hayata
Ishikawa

There is no guarantee that anyone will beat China. The point is that every player needs to take responsibility. Ito couldn't beat China's number 5. If they can't beat Ishikawa in a fair fight, let us just stop pretending they will beat China in a fair fight.
 
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@Sali when did Ishikawa win against a Chinese player ?
totaly 16 Times in her career out of 103.
Last year she defeat: Wen Jia, Sun Yingsha, Wu Yang and Chen Xintong.
I know that it is quite devastating for her, but first she is a good selection to reach final with the team. And secondly as Next Level wrote there is no chance for japan to beat china. Especially today when none japanese player can garantee to beat chinese.
Hirano had a good wins 2 years ago and from that time she never win with chinese.
Ito had good run last year and since then she was also beaten by chinese and others.
I remember the same situation was with Koki Niwa, they send him last olympics to play first match with Ma Long because he beat him many years ago. We are today and today I do not see any japanese player regularly beating top chinese.
 
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Win or loose, we're dealing with best case scenario here, heading in...

Ishikawa/Ito/Hirano combo
Ito, who has the best current results against CNT should take the 2 singles spot. That leaves Ishikawa in Doubles with Hirano, not a viable combination.

Ishikawa/Ito/Hayata combo
Ito-Hayata in Doubles (that's why she's in) for 1 point, if. Should they win, all available scenarios require Ishikawa to hold back the determined Chinese counterpunch. She has to guard 2 pts, between the uncertainty of Hayata holding on against a CNT onslaught.

Ito/Hirano/Hayata combo
Hirano-Hayata on Doubles, Ito takes the 2 singles, there is still a proven fighting chance there. Not sure, but not suredeath either.

Ishikawa has to go.
(If she can win against CNT, she would have shown something in the last 30 continuous defeats)
But how ?

All eyes on China Op now. For the T2 bonus points.
Ishikawa at #24, is 25 pts behind Hirano, 75 pts behind Ito.
If Hirano gets blown out at R32, she still gets another 25, and Ishikawa will need a QF finish to overtake her, but there are 10 Chinese women in the melee.
 
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The 3 T2 Diamond events are crucial to Ito here.

The 3rd round finish at WTTC 2019 is a big blow to her, seeing she doesn't have the buffer of World Cup. To make up for that, she'll need to attend all 3 events, which would earn her a minimum of 1200 pts(R16 = 400 pts). Suppose Ishikawa and Hirano finish 3rd(1660 pts) and 4th(1530 pts) at World Cup, she'll need to make it deeper into the bracket to keep up, and even deeper if Ishikawa and Hirano also make it to the T2 Diamond events. A tough road ahead.

https://t2apac.com/t2-content/uploa...ournament-Qualification-Comp-Format_FINAL.pdf
AxBa64z.png
 
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