This is a reply to Nemo's post in the Australian Open 2019 thread regarding M. Yoshimura's chances to make the Olympics. I decided to post here as to not derail the Australian Open 2019 thread and since the team composition for the Japan Men's Team will affect who is selected for the Women's Team anyway due to the new mixed doubles event.
I think Yoshimura's chance to make the Olympic Team is also dependent on how much importance JTTA gives to team seeding. Right now, the Japan's Men's team is seeded 2nd with Germany seeded at 3rd. However, ITTF usually seeds team events based on the WR of the top 3 entered players of the team. This means that Yoshimura's low WR will pull down Japan's seeding from 2nd seed to 3rd or 4[SUP]th[/SUP] seed during the Olympics. I can explain the intricacies of world team ranking if you want, but long story short: if Japan with Harimoto, Yoshimura, and Niwa or Mizutani plays against Germany with Boll, Dima, and Franziska in a virtual computer simulated match, the computer will predict Germany to win based on the world ranking of the top 3 players fielded by each team, so Germany would be seeded higher than Japan.
This was the reason why the Japan Women's Team was seeded 1st in the World Team Cup last year while the Chinese Women's team was seeded 2nd despite China's team ranking being World No. 1. During that tournament, China left out then World No. 1 Chen Meng from the team. China's top 3 players based on WR were Zhu Yuling, Chen Xingtong and Wang Manyu (Ding Ning and Liu Shiwen were ranked low due to lack of participation). Because of this, the computer predicted that Japan would beat China in a virtual match due to the higher WR of Japan's top 3 players of Ishikawa, Ito and Hirano, so Japan was seeded 1.
If Japan wants to avoid China till the the final, being seeded 2nd and sending Harimoto, Niwa and Mizutani is the only way to guarantee this. If Japan is seeded 3rd or 4th, there's a 50% chance they meet China in the SF. Of course, seeding is meaningless if the players selected don't deliver, but I'm sure JTTA is still considering this scenario when selecting the team.
Right now, the biggest non-Chinese threat to the Japan Men's Team is Germany. The doubles pairing of Boll/Franziska is one of the best doubles pairings right now and I think if Japan faces Germany, Germany will most likely win doubles whether or not Yoshimura is selected. This means that Japan needs to win 3 of 4 singles matches. Does Japan just sacrifice doubles and strengthen their chances to win 3 of 4 singles matches, or will they try to win the doubles match while weakening their singles despite still being the underdog in doubles against Boll/Franziska? These are tough decisions JTTA must answer by Jan. 2020. Other dangerous teams for Japan include Korea, Sweden and Taiwan, all of which have strong doubles pairings and have singles players that can defeat the players of Japan.
In my opinion, JTTA should test Yoshimura/Niwa or Yoshimura/Mizutani pairings on the World Tour to see if these doubles combinations do significantly better than the other men’s doubles pairings they have tested. If these doubles pairings containing Yoshimura only do slightly better, then maybe it may not be worth the seeding drop and the weakening of singles level of the team. However, if Yoshimura pairs well with either Mizutani or Niwa, and especially if Yoshimura can have solid singles results, you can make the case of including Yoshimura on the team.
Maybe I should do a "Race to Tokyo 2020 Men's Singles edition."
Right now, I'd say Niwa has the slight edge over Mizutani due to a better WTTC result and due to the fact that Niwa is playing the World Cup while Mizutani isn't.
I think Yoshimura's chance to make the Olympic Team is also dependent on how much importance JTTA gives to team seeding. Right now, the Japan's Men's team is seeded 2nd with Germany seeded at 3rd. However, ITTF usually seeds team events based on the WR of the top 3 entered players of the team. This means that Yoshimura's low WR will pull down Japan's seeding from 2nd seed to 3rd or 4[SUP]th[/SUP] seed during the Olympics. I can explain the intricacies of world team ranking if you want, but long story short: if Japan with Harimoto, Yoshimura, and Niwa or Mizutani plays against Germany with Boll, Dima, and Franziska in a virtual computer simulated match, the computer will predict Germany to win based on the world ranking of the top 3 players fielded by each team, so Germany would be seeded higher than Japan.
This was the reason why the Japan Women's Team was seeded 1st in the World Team Cup last year while the Chinese Women's team was seeded 2nd despite China's team ranking being World No. 1. During that tournament, China left out then World No. 1 Chen Meng from the team. China's top 3 players based on WR were Zhu Yuling, Chen Xingtong and Wang Manyu (Ding Ning and Liu Shiwen were ranked low due to lack of participation). Because of this, the computer predicted that Japan would beat China in a virtual match due to the higher WR of Japan's top 3 players of Ishikawa, Ito and Hirano, so Japan was seeded 1.
If Japan wants to avoid China till the the final, being seeded 2nd and sending Harimoto, Niwa and Mizutani is the only way to guarantee this. If Japan is seeded 3rd or 4th, there's a 50% chance they meet China in the SF. Of course, seeding is meaningless if the players selected don't deliver, but I'm sure JTTA is still considering this scenario when selecting the team.
Right now, the biggest non-Chinese threat to the Japan Men's Team is Germany. The doubles pairing of Boll/Franziska is one of the best doubles pairings right now and I think if Japan faces Germany, Germany will most likely win doubles whether or not Yoshimura is selected. This means that Japan needs to win 3 of 4 singles matches. Does Japan just sacrifice doubles and strengthen their chances to win 3 of 4 singles matches, or will they try to win the doubles match while weakening their singles despite still being the underdog in doubles against Boll/Franziska? These are tough decisions JTTA must answer by Jan. 2020. Other dangerous teams for Japan include Korea, Sweden and Taiwan, all of which have strong doubles pairings and have singles players that can defeat the players of Japan.
In my opinion, JTTA should test Yoshimura/Niwa or Yoshimura/Mizutani pairings on the World Tour to see if these doubles combinations do significantly better than the other men’s doubles pairings they have tested. If these doubles pairings containing Yoshimura only do slightly better, then maybe it may not be worth the seeding drop and the weakening of singles level of the team. However, if Yoshimura pairs well with either Mizutani or Niwa, and especially if Yoshimura can have solid singles results, you can make the case of including Yoshimura on the team.
Maybe I should do a "Race to Tokyo 2020 Men's Singles edition."
Right now, I'd say Niwa has the slight edge over Mizutani due to a better WTTC result and due to the fact that Niwa is playing the World Cup while Mizutani isn't.
