Japan Women's Race to Tokyo 2020 Singles

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So....
Preliminary calculation of ITTF rating (I apologize for possible inaccuracies ...)
8/2019
Ishikawa - 13133
September ranking - deduction of old bonuses-(-1800,-1260), reserve so far (without taking into account results of Bulgaria and the Czech Republic) - (+1170,+900)
Loss of points (without taking into account the results in Bulgaria and the Czech Republic) - (=-990)

ITO - 12710
September ranking - deduction of old bonuses-(-1260), reserve so far (without taking into account results of Bulgaria and the Czech Republic) - (+1125)
Loss of points (without taking into account the results in Bulgaria and the Czech Republic) - (=-135)

CHENG I-Ching - 12190
September ranking - deduction of old bonuses-(-945), reserve so far (without taking into account results of Bulgaria and the Czech Republic) - (+880)
Loss of points (without taking into account the results in Bulgaria and the Czech Republic) - (=-65)


HIRANO - 12050
September ranking - deduction of old bonuses-(-1260), reserve so far (without taking into account results of Bulgaria and the Czech Republic) - (+900)
Loss of points (without taking into account the results in Bulgaria and the Czech Republic) - (=-360)
 
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says Shoo...nothing to see here. - zeio
says Shoo...nothing to see here. - zeio
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$5000 alone is well worth the trip.
 
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says Shoo...nothing to see here. - zeio
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Oh, of course. They gotta attend. 400 extra pts in the worst case scenario. ML and LSW agree as well.
 
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I still think though that Ittf has to review how the T2 diamond events hold sway over the World Rankings, I don't know much about the rules but I suppose the 3 T2 events would be in addition to the best 8 World Tour Events, So if XX who's in form for example wins the 3 events, He'll have 3000 points, that's a lotta points, I know inability to participate in this edition will spur the players down the ranking chart to up their game, but still if the 3 events will be added, there'll be a big disparity in points between the top 16 and the rest. Probably if only 2 is added( this doesn't make much sense), or an average of the points attained in how many events that were attended by an athlete, so for example if XX wins the 3 diamond events, he'll have just 1000 (3000/3) added, I believe this will keep things tighter.
 
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If you want to see Ito in singles and Hayata in team/mixed doubles, then Hirano will have to advance.

I don't think it has any special meaning and the really bad sign for Hayata is Ishikawa's play in singles. My two cents...

Six months is still a while.

This situation feels really similar to the 2012 North American Olympic Trials. At that time, Erica Wu, a teenage table tennis player needed her teammates and fellow teenagers Ariel Hsing and Lily Zhang to both qualify for singles so that Erica can make the Olympic Team event.


In this video, from 0 secs to 40 secs, you can see Erica talking about how anxious she was while watching Ariel's and Lily's matches, how her chances of making the olympics would be small if either or both of them didn't qualify for singles, and how grateful she was that they actually did qualify, which secured Erica's place in the team event. Hayata seems to be in the same spot that Erica was in 2012 and will want both Ito and Hirano to qualify for singles to better her chances of being selected for the team event.

Of course, she still has to do her part and perform the best she can in the remaining events to get selected and it'll be interesting to see how she fares in Bulgaria and Czech which will be her first Regular World Tour tournament this year where the Top Chinese Players won't be participating (since she was waitlisted in HK). If she can get out of qualifications, she has a good chance to win against some seeded players. However, the bitter truth is that part of her Olympic destiny is now out of her control and depends on the how Ito, Hirano and Ishikawa perform the rest of the year.
 
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I still think though that Ittf has to review how the T2 diamond events hold sway over the World Rankings, I don't know much about the rules but I suppose the 3 T2 events would be in addition to the best 8 World Tour Events, So if XX who's in form for example wins the 3 events, He'll have 3000 points, that's a lotta points, I know inability to participate in this edition will spur the players down the ranking chart to up their game, but still if the 3 events will be added, there'll be a big disparity in points between the top 16 and the rest. Probably if only 2 is added( this doesn't make much sense), or an average of the points attained in how many events that were attended by an athlete, so for example if XX wins the 3 diamond events, he'll have just 1000 (3000/3) added, I believe this will keep things tighter.
I've railed against these bonus points (mostly on MyTT) since I first found out about it. I have a lot of respect for what T2 is trying to do and I wish them good luck in trying to popularize the sport. Having said that, I'm against this decision to give ranking points out at these T2 non-ITTF tournaments and especially *in addition to* a player's top 8 results. Especially since this is an Olympic trial year, and as we can see, nations like Japan are using World Ranking as a criteria for determining Olympic selection (in Japan's case *the* criteria for singles). Olympics aside, this creates an artificial barrier to entry to the top 15. A player could have better results than a top 15 player, but because of the T2 points would lose out in getting into the top 15 which matters for seeding at ITTF tournaments.
 
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I thought Kato would close the gap between herself and the top Japanese with her T2 performance and create more drama. But the gap is simply too huge.

She will receive approximately 24 place in the rating for August ....And it is unlikely to enter the TOP-16 by January 2020 ...
 
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Race to Tokyo Standings after T2 Malaysia
JNT Standings 2019 T2 Malaysia.jpg

T2 Recap:
No one gained any ground among the 3 frontrunners in the Race to Tokyo since they all had early exits. The same happened in the men’s side. In case you’re curious, Mizutani currently has around a 200-point lead over Niwa in the Jan. 2020 WR. However, Niwa still has the advantage of playing the World Cup later this year. The race for the 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] spot in the men’s team is actually quite close, and I’m considering making a spreadsheet for that race too as the selection of the men’s team will affect the women’s team selection due to the Mixed Doubles event.

The biggest surprise on the side of Japan was Miyu Kato’s performance. She was impressive in beating both Ito and Chen Meng. Unfortunately for her, her good performance in the first T2 event is offset by the fact that she isn’t qualified for the 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] T2 event, so she’s still way behind in the singles race.

Looking ahead:
Sun Yingsha’s recent performances will push her into the Top 8 in WR for August. This is actually good news for Ishikawa and Ito since now they will all be within the 5-8 seed group. This ensures that either Ishikawa or Ito will NOT face Sun Yingsha until at least the semifinals in tournaments, so it’s one less threat for them to worry about in the early rounds. On the other hand, this hurts Hirano as her 12.5% chance of drawing Cheng I-Ching in the R16 is substituted for Sun Yingsha, a much tougher opponent. The good news for Hirano is the top Chinese players aren’t playing in Bulgaria or Czech, so Hirano won’t be guaranteed to face tough opponents in the R16 for these tournaments if she draws well. She still has time to improve her World Ranking before the next tournament where the Top Chinese players do show up.

In the Bulgaria and Czech Open, luck of the draw becomes even more crucial in determining the Race to Tokyo as compared to other opens since the top Chinese Players aren’t playing. When the top Chinese players play, luck of the draw isn’t as crucial since there will always be a quarter of the draw defended by a Chinese player. When the Chinese top players don’t play, the draw can become very imbalanced because of the low WR of Chinese qualifiers. This could lead to a situation where one half of the draw is full of Chinese players and the other half has none. This was exactly what happened in last year’s Czech Open where no Chinese players were drawn to Ishikawa’s half of the draw while all the Chinese players got drawn to Ito’s half. Hopefully, the draws this time will not be too imbalanced, so the Japanese players’ Olympic readiness can be measured more accurately and fairly.
 
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....Sun Yingsha’s recent performances will push her into the Top 8 in WR for August....


WS rating ITTF 8/2019
(I apologize for any inaccuracies ..)

nr.6 - ISHIKAWA Kasumi 13133 (-1800,1260/1170,900) +bolg , cze
SUN Yingsha 12915
ITO Mima 12710 (-1260/1125) +bolg , cze
CHENG I-Ching 12190 (-945/880)
HIRANO Miu 12050 (-1260/900) +bolg , cze

Also shows deductions old bonuses for 8/2018, which will be taken into account in the rating for September 2019
(reserve points for replacement — so far without taking into account the results in Bulgaria and the Czech Republic ...)

Note:
SUN Yingsha - no games in August, the result will remain the same ...
CHENG I-Ching - no games in August...But there is a deduction with a replacement .. (- 65 points=12125) ...

Theoretically, Ito has good chances to beat Ishikawa in September's rating ITTF.....
 
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Asian Table Tennis Championships Lineup

Head's up! JTTA has just released the player lineup for this year's Asian Table Tennis Championships on the JTTA website. It remains to be seen if additional players will be added, but as of now, this is the lineup:

Men's Team: T. Harimoto, M. Yoshimura, K. Yoshimura, Yukiya Uda, Jin Ueda, and Shunsuke Togami (Notable Absences: Niwa and Mizutani)
Women's Team: Kasumi Ishikawa, Miu Hirano, Hitomi Sato, Saki Shibata and Miyu Kato (Notable Absences: Mima Ito and Hina Hayata)

How will Ito's absence affect the Race to Tokyo? Given that Ishikawa and Hirano are the only serious threats to her singles spot, Ito's absence won't affect the race too much. The continental championships only give the same amount of ranking points as a World Tour Regular event. Also, remember that among the Top 8 results, a player may only use a Maximum of 1 continental event result. Ishikawa and Hirano already have a continental event result this year (Asian Cup), so if ever either Ishikawa or Hirano does better in the Asian Championships, it would be their Asian Cup result that would have to be replaced instead of their lowest result of their Top 8.

Ishikawa needs to at least make the singles final in the ATTC to gain any points in the race while Hirano needs at least a semi-final finish. Given that matches are best 3 of 5 games, it's certainly possible. However, I still believe that it is more difficult to go farther in the Asian Championships as opposed to the Asian Cup since China can field 5 singles players this time instead of a maximum of 2 like in the Asian Cup.

As of now, it is still unclear why Ito is not participating in the ATTC. My guess would be that she is conserving energy for the second T2 event which will occur the week after the ATTC. Given that the ATTC has all 7 events (all singles, doubles and team events), it would definitely be exhausting to participate in both tournaments back-to-back. The T2 event will have more impact on World Ranking than the ATTC, so it makes sense for Ito to prioritize T2.

I don't think JTTA has released information on the doubles pairings for this event yet. Just keep a look out on who gets paired with whom in the doubles events for possible clues on who the JTTA is eyeing for next year's Olympics.
 
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By the way, according to the results of Bulgaria Open and Czech Open, Ito has very good chances to rise above Ishikawa in the next ITTF rating...Due to the fact that Ishikawa has noticeably large deductions of old bonuses for August 2018 ...

Ishikawa - (-1800,1260/reserve 1200,1170)
Ito - (-1260/reserve 1125)
 
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