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    1. Top | #421
      Vlad Celler is online now
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      Will hope.....
      And then, how lucky ...... Of the 11 Chinese women will be a maximum of 7 plus two seeded in the main grid ....

    2. Top | #422
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      Race to Tokyo Standings After Bulgaria

      Japan Women's Standings after Bulgaria Open
      Name:  WJNT Standings 2019 Bulgaria.jpg
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      I'll do a more in-depth analysis after the Czech Open, since a lot can still change in terms of WR, seeding, etc. after this tournament. For now, I'll just outline some potential "goals" for some of the players in the Czech Open to help them in achieving their Olympic Dream. Again, for the top 3 contenders (Ito, Ishikawa, Hirano), at least a SF finish is needed for any type of gain in the Jan. 2020 WR.


      • Ishikawa- She wants to at least reach the final in order to maintain her standing as the highest WR Japanese Woman. Anything less will lead to Ito overtaking her next month. It won't really affect her seeding in tournaments, but given JTTA's obsession with WR, some of the opportunities that may have been given to her had she still been the highest ranked Japanese player may be given to her other teammates. Of course, she'll also want to continue working on Mixed Doubles, as it will be her safety net to the Olympics in case she doesn't finish in the Top 2 by 2020.
      • Hirano- Her performance in this tournament will dictate how easy or difficult the rest of her year will be in terms of draws. In my opinion, her performance in the World Cup, due to the high WR points given, will play a big part in determining if she will play in the Singles Event. To overtake Cheng I-Ching and be a top 4 seed in the World Cup, she's needs to reach the final. If Hirano manages to win the tournament, and Ishikawa doesn't make the final, she'll end up overtaking Ishikawa in WR, which would drop Ishikawa to WR #9. If she manages to pull that off, it'll be a big boost to Hirano's Olympic chances since all of Hirano's tough R16 draws will become Ishikawa's for the last few tournaments of the year. Given Hirano's current form, it may seem far-fetched, but she needs to have a breakthrough performance sooner or later, as Ishikawa is close to overtaking her.
      • Hayata- According to the article Zeio posted, the JTTA wants Hayata to improve her WR to make it easier for them to choose her for the Olympics since it will be hard for them to justify selecting her over other higher-ranked players if her ranking is so low. Even though she's out of the singles race, she may still have to be ranked 4th or 5th on the team at the end of the year for JTTA to consider her, so her goal is just to go as far as possible in the remaining tournaments while hoping her other teammates don't advance too far.
      • Ito- Something more important for her than doing well in this tournament is monitoring her eye injury to make sure it doesn't get worse. If not, she and Mizutani will become the most legally blind doubles pairing on the world tour.


      As promised, I did a table for the Japan Men's Race as well:
      Name:  MJNT Standings 2019 Bulgaria.jpg
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      • Mizutani- If he can continue pairing well with Ito, he'll at least have a safety net in being chosen for the Olympics in case he doesn't finish in the Top 2 WR among Japanese Men.
      • Niwa- His recent World Tour performances have been disastrous. Even though he was an advantage over Mizutani by that fact that he's playing in the World Cup, this may be offset by the fact that's he's not in the top 15 of the World Tour Standings. He's in danger of not being invited to the other T2 events and may not even make the Grand Finals while Mizutani will probably do so. He has to focus more on his singles performances from now on since he doesn't have the "doubles" safety net that Mizutani has with Ito.
      • Harimoto- His Olympic spot is locked in place, so he should mainly focus on improving himself and gaining confidence through this year's events in preparation for next year.

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    4. Top | #423
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      Indeed, in order for Ishikawa to maintain an advantage over Ito in the ranking, she must reach the final in the Czech Open......Nine against one, that she will not succeed ....
      Hirano faces big deductions, and reserves are small ..... The result is a drop in the next rating list ....
      Hayata, on the contrary, will rise .... Tentatively, it will be at the end of the third ten, 28-30 places ....
      (but this is due to the fact that players above Hayata in the ranking have big deductions for old bonuses ...)

    5. Top | #424
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      Better late than never. NHK documentary series on the race for Tokyo 2020.



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    7. Top | #425
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      Ito und Mizutani once again demolished Ishikawa and Harimoto in mixed doubles. I cant see a possibly scenario where either Ishikawa or Harimoto will be picked for the mixed double competition at the olympics.
      In my eyes Harimoto is just not a good doubles player in general. Ishikawa had some good mixed results
      as the competition was quite new to scene, but now that teams put more focus into it she doesnt show
      the neccasary results.

      As Harimoto is set as an olympic participant it might be good for him to focus on singles and the two single
      games in the team competition. For Ishikawa its more problematic. If she doesnt make the olympic singles
      she has not much to justify the 3. spot for the team tournament, which most likly have to play the double game.

    8. Top | #426
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      I don't know playing Table Tennis but i really love watching this game. it's beautiful game with lots of excitements...

    9. Top | #427
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      Miu Hirano's path to the QF: NARUMOTO Ayami, MATELOVA Hana. Mima Ito's path to the QF: Hina Hayata, Chen Xingtong. And JNT wants to base Olympic selection on luck of the draw? Anyway, I hope Mima Ito wins against CXT today.

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    11. Top | #428
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      Just look how much bad luck hayata had with her draws all year long. ishikawa often had the easiest draws (due to top 4 seedings) and could do anything with it. Still she is in competition for the olympic singles spot.

      For the world ranking your top 8 results over the year counts. I just looked it up and Ishikawa has just ONE result from 2019. Everything else ist from 2018. Be carful as a little rant is coming:

      2 results are from team events where a win against D-Tier player counted as much as winning against Ding Ning or someone like this. At the team worldcup she won against SGP (twice), EGY, PRK, SGP and got 1500 points for it. This is as much as reaching semi-final of and platinum event. At the team WTTC she won against UKR (twice), EGY, HUN, AUT, USA, COR and won 1750 points. Nearly as much as winning a normal world tour event. HOW ****ED UP IS THIS? An now she is getting free T2 points for her world ranking just by participating. JUST WOW.
      Last edited by karupinkun; 08-23-2019 at 02:59 PM.

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    13. Top | #429
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      Quote Originally Posted by karupinkun View Post
      Just look how much bad luck hayata had with her draws all year long. ishikawa often had the easiest draws (due to top 4 seedings) and could do anything with it. Still she is in competition for the olympic singles spot.

      For the world ranking your top 8 results over the year counts. I just looked it up and Ishikawa has just ONE result from 2019. Everything else ist from 2018. Be carful as a little rant is coming:

      2 results are from team events where a win against D-Tier player counted as much as winning against Ding Ning or someone like this. At the team worldcup she won against SGP (twice), EGY, PRK, SGP and got 1500 points for it. This is as much as reaching semi-final of and platinum event. At the team WTTC she won against UKR (twice), EGY, HUN, AUT, USA, COR and won 1750 points. Nearly as much as winning a normal world tour event. HOW ****ED UP IS THIS? An now she is getting free T2 points for her world ranking just by participating. JUST WOW.
      exactly

    14. Top | #430
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      To be fair, a win against an Egyptian player will equal a win against Ding Ning anywhere. It's how far in a tournament you go that matters.

      As imperfect as the selection process is, it does make wins against chinese players at world tours that much more valuable. All the players have upped their game, wheareas in the past the expectation would have been to beat everyone but the chinese.

    15. Top | #431
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      https://twitter.com/tmurayama10/stat...23021971812352


      https://twitter.com/tmurayama10/stat...62908827172864


      Events left:
      ATTC Sep 15-22, Ito skipping
      T2 CHN Sep 26-29
      WT SWE OPN Oct 1-6
      WTP GER OPN Oct 8-13
      WWC Oct 18-20, for Ishikawa and Hirano only
      TWC Nov 6-10
      WTP AUT OPN Nov 12-17
      T2 SGP Nov 21-24
      WTGF Dec 12-15

      From here on out, gaining points will become much much harder, in order to replace their best-8 results.

      3 lowest points
      Ito 1x1125pts, 2x900pts
      Hirano 3x900pts
      Ishikawa 3x900pts

      For Ishikawa and Hirano, they'll need to reach QF of WTP(1125pts) or SF of WT(1170pts), at a minimum. For the ATTC, Ishikawa will have to reach the final(1350pts) whereas Hirano will only have to finish 4th(1080pts) to replace their Asian Cup results(1170pts vs 855pts).

      Therefore, the bonus points from the final T2 stop will be very critical here.
      Last edited by zeio; 08-31-2019 at 02:25 PM.

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    17. Top | #432
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      Quote Originally Posted by driversbeat View Post
      To be fair, a win against an Egyptian player will equal a win against Ding Ning anywhere. It's how far in a tournament you go that matters.

      As imperfect as the selection process is, it does make wins against chinese players at world tours that much more valuable. All the players have upped their game, wheareas in the past the expectation would have been to beat everyone but the chinese.
      The Teams tournaments also have another issue. The mor matches a player plays, the more points they can rack up (see Cheng I Ching). So you can be rewarded for being the top player on a team that mostly goes 3-1 and 3-2 and be penalized for being a player on a team that wins all its matches 3-0. I think that if the ITTF wants to continue that silly policy, it should mandate that all 5 matches be played.
      Cobra Kai TT Exponent - No mercy in this dojo, no matter your rating or the score. All spin, no power or footwork.

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    19. Top | #433
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      Quote Originally Posted by NextLevel View Post
      ...I think that if the ITTF wants to continue that silly policy, it should mandate that all 5 matches be played.
      Just like how WTTC used to do it until 1989. Or, make 1 win count only per team match.

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    21. Top | #434
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      Quote Originally Posted by zeio View Post
      https://twitter.com/tmurayama10/stat...23021971812352


      https://twitter.com/tmurayama10/stat...62908827172864


      Events left:
      ATTC Sep 15-22, Ito skipping
      T2 CHN Sep 26-29
      WT SWE OPN Oct 1-6
      WTP GER OPN Oct 8-13
      WWC Oct 18-20, for Ishikawa and Hirano only
      TWC Nov 6-10
      WTP AUT OPN Nov 12-17
      T2 SGP Nov 21-24
      WTGF Dec 12-15

      From here on out, gaining points will become much much harder, in order to replace their best-8 results.

      For Ishikawa, she'll need to reach R16 of WTP(900pts) or QF of WT(900pts), at a minimum. For ATTC, 5th(900pts), 6th(855pts), 7th(810pts), 8th(765pts).

      Same case for Hirano, but she'll have an easier time because she has 2x720pts as opposed to 1 for Ishikawa.

      For Ito, she has 1x675pts and 1x720pts, so she'll only need to reach R16 of WTP(900pts) or R16 of WT(720pts). However, she must rack up as many points as possible to offset for the WWC.

      Therefore, the bonus points from the remaining T2 stops will be very critical here.

      Question to those who know about the bonuses for T2 ....

      Bonuses for the second and third T2 - will be stacked with bonuses for the first, already held, T2?

    22. Top | #435
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      Quote Originally Posted by Vlad Celler View Post
      Question to those who know about the bonuses for T2 ....

      Bonuses for the second and third T2 - will be stacked with bonuses for the first, already held, T2?
      I have not read anything in the 2019 World Ranking Document that indicates the bonus points from the T2 events cannot be stacked so I have to assume that they can be stacked... which makes it even more unfair to everyone else!

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    24. Top | #436
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      Quote Originally Posted by zeio View Post
      https://twitter.com/tmurayama10/stat...23021971812352


      https://twitter.com/tmurayama10/stat...62908827172864


      Events left:
      ATTC Sep 15-22, Ito skipping
      T2 CHN Sep 26-29
      WT SWE OPN Oct 1-6
      WTP GER OPN Oct 8-13
      WWC Oct 18-20, for Ishikawa and Hirano only
      TWC Nov 6-10
      WTP AUT OPN Nov 12-17
      T2 SGP Nov 21-24
      WTGF Dec 12-15

      From here on out, gaining points will become much much harder, in order to replace their best-8 results.

      For Ishikawa, she'll need to reach R16 of WTP(900pts) or QF of WT(900pts), at a minimum. For ATTC, 5th(900pts), 6th(855pts), 7th(810pts), 8th(765pts).

      Same case for Hirano, but she'll have an easier time because she has 2x720pts as opposed to 1 for Ishikawa.

      For Ito, she has 1x675pts and 1x720pts, so she'll only need to reach R16 of WTP(900pts) or R16 of WT(720pts). However, she must rack up as many points as possible to offset for the WWC.

      Therefore, the bonus points from the remaining T2 stops will be very critical here.
      Hey Zeio! I think you misread the chart. The 8 results shown in the twitter chart you posted aren't each player's top 8 results but only show these players' results from the last 8 events. If you notice, the results in the chart only include those from the China Open and onwards, but don't include the Qatar Open and the WTTC 2019. The cells highlighted in Green are those results good enough to form the top 8 results of the player while those highlighted in gray have already been eliminated from the player's top 8 results. In fact, Ito, Ishikawa and Hirano all have 900 points as their worst Top 8 Result. Please see the spreadsheet below containing all events:
      Name:  WJNT Standings 2019 Czech.jpg
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Size:  54.8 KBName:  MJNT Standings 2019 Czech.jpg
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      Basically, for Ito, Hirano or Ishikawa to get any kind of gain in WR points towards the Jan. 2020 ranking, they need at least a SF finish in a World Tour Regular event and at least a QF finish in a World Tour Platinum event since their lowest result among the top 8 is 900. In fact, Ito will have the hardest time gaining ranking points as compared to Hirano and Ishikawa because Ito only has 2x 900pts while both Ishikawa and Hirano have 3x 900pts.
      Last edited by apacible; 08-26-2019 at 02:33 PM.

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    26. Top | #437
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      In addition - Ito faces big deductions of old bonuses for November 2018 ....
      (will be reflected in the December ITTF ranking) ...

      ISHIKAWA (-1260)
      ITO (-1800,-1350)=-3150
      HIRANO (-1350)

      Perhaps in vain Ito refused Paraguay .... Her reserves are really weak .....
      Last edited by Vlad Celler; 08-26-2019 at 02:43 PM.

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    28. Top | #438
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      Looking ahead to September's Events

      With all August events complete, here are the things to lookout for in the upcoming months:

      September World Rankings
      For the first time in her career, Ito will be the highest World-ranked Japanese Woman at WR#7 while Ishikawa will be WR#8. Their seeding won't really be affected, so it's more of a prestige thing. Maybe it could lead JTTA to choose Ito to play 2 singles in the upcoming Team World Cup, so we'll see if Ito gets any perks from this development. After all, WR is the main reason she's hasn't played in the World Cup the past three years.

      Hirano will be WR#9 and Cheng I-Ching WR#10. Hirano's goal is to be ranked higher than Cheng by October to get a top 4 seed for the World Cup. Cheng can overtake Hirano by finishing in the QF of the Asian Champs or by outperforming Hirano by at least one round in T2 China. How this plays out can make a huge difference is Hirano's chances of playing singles in the Olympics.

      Paraguay Open Challenge Plus
      Will Ito regret cancelling her entry in this tournament? Had she played, it would have almost been a guaranteed 1100 points since her level is significantly higher than the other players entered. The huge lead of Ito has diminished after the Czech Open after Hirano and Ishikawa were able to defeat several Chinese players. Before, Ito could simply rely on beating Chinese players 30-40% of the time to maintain her lead since Ishikawa and Hirano were expected to be sure losses to Chinese players due to their huge losing streaks against China. Now, Ishikawa and Hirano have both shown improvements in their game, and it would only take one big tournament from either or both to overtake Ito. If Hirano finishes 3rd in the World Cup, she overtakes Ito. If Ishikawa finishes 2nd, she overtakes Ito. If both get hot in this one tournament, Ito may be in trouble.

      With Ito out, Hayata and Hashimoto are the favorites in this tournament. Hayata still has a shot at being selected for the Olympics as the 3rd Player, but getting her ranking up to 4th or 5th on the Japanese National Team will greatly help her chances. She needs to win this tournament to keep her hopes alive.

      Mixed Doubles
      The Ito/Mizutani pair seems to be the most successful Japanese pair this year and have had good results despite only playing 4 tournaments together. Despite some tough losses, they have still remained competitive in all their matches. By now, I think we can conclude that Ishikawa and Harimoto do not mesh well together. Harimoto misses Hayata and Ishikawa misses Yoshimura. It's a clear example of how the best players do not always combine to make the best doubles pairings. Let's see if JTTA decides to field Ishikawa/Yoshimura or Hayata/Harimoto again.

      T-League Season 2
      T-League starts this week and while it's not an official ITTF event, a lot can be learned from how the Japanese players perform here.
      Kinoshita Meister Tokyo has a team of Harimoto, Mizutani, Niwa, Oshima and Hou Yingchao. On its face, the team seems overpowered, but given the recent form of Harimoto, Mizutani and Niwa, the defending champions may struggle. This is basically a test-run of how an Olympic team of Harimoto, Mizutani, Niwa will perform.

      Nippon Life Red Elf
      Can Hayata repeat her incredible MVP performance this season? Hayata has a bigger load to carry for her team now that the Chinese players on the team aren't playing in season 2. She now has a bigger target on her back, so it will be interesting to see how she deals with the added pressure.

      Also, now that Red Elf's premier doubles team of Chang Chenchen and Jiang Hui is gone, who will play doubles? Will the team test out a Hirano/Hayata doubles pairing? If they do, and the pair does well, will this factor in JTTA's decision in choosing the Japan Women's Olympic Team?

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    30. Top | #439
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      Quote Originally Posted by apacible View Post
      With all August events complete, here are the things to lookout for in the upcoming months:

      September World Rankings
      For the first time in her career, Ito will be the highest World-ranked Japanese Woman at WR#7 while Ishikawa will be WR#8. Their seeding won't really be affected, so it's more of a prestige thing. Maybe it could lead JTTA to choose Ito to play 2 singles in the upcoming Team World Cup, so we'll see if Ito gets any perks from this development. After all, WR is the main reason she's hasn't played in the World Cup the past three years.

      Hirano will be WR#9 and Cheng I-Ching WR#10. Hirano's goal is to be ranked higher than Cheng by October to get a top 4 seed for the World Cup. Cheng can overtake Hirano by finishing in the QF of the Asian Champs or by outperforming Hirano by at least one round in T2 China. How this plays out can make a huge difference is Hirano's chances of playing singles in the Olympics.

      Paraguay Open Challenge Plus
      Will Ito regret cancelling her entry in this tournament? Had she played, it would have almost been a guaranteed 1100 points since her level is significantly higher than the other players entered. The huge lead of Ito has diminished after the Czech Open after Hirano and Ishikawa were able to defeat several Chinese players. Before, Ito could simply rely on beating Chinese players 30-40% of the time to maintain her lead since Ishikawa and Hirano were expected to be sure losses to Chinese players due to their huge losing streaks against China. Now, Ishikawa and Hirano have both shown improvements in their game, and it would only take one big tournament from either or both to overtake Ito. If Hirano finishes 3rd in the World Cup, she overtakes Ito. If Ishikawa finishes 2nd, she overtakes Ito. If both get hot in this one tournament, Ito may be in trouble.

      With Ito out, Hayata and Hashimoto are the favorites in this tournament. Hayata still has a shot at being selected for the Olympics as the 3rd Player, but getting her ranking up to 4th or 5th on the Japanese National Team will greatly help her chances. She needs to win this tournament to keep her hopes alive.

      Mixed Doubles
      The Ito/Mizutani pair seems to be the most successful Japanese pair this year and have had good results despite only playing 4 tournaments together. Despite some tough losses, they have still remained competitive in all their matches. By now, I think we can conclude that Ishikawa and Harimoto do not mesh well together. Harimoto misses Hayata and Ishikawa misses Yoshimura. It's a clear example of how the best players do not always combine to make the best doubles pairings. Let's see if JTTA decides to field Ishikawa/Yoshimura or Hayata/Harimoto again.

      T-League Season 2
      T-League starts this week and while it's not an official ITTF event, a lot can be learned from how the Japanese players perform here.
      Kinoshita Meister Tokyo has a team of Harimoto, Mizutani, Niwa, Oshima and Hou Yingchao. On its face, the team seems overpowered, but given the recent form of Harimoto, Mizutani and Niwa, the defending champions may struggle. This is basically a test-run of how an Olympic team of Harimoto, Mizutani, Niwa will perform.

      Nippon Life Red Elf
      Can Hayata repeat her incredible MVP performance this season? Hayata has a bigger load to carry for her team now that the Chinese players on the team aren't playing in season 2. She now has a bigger target on her back, so it will be interesting to see how she deals with the added pressure.

      Also, now that Red Elf's premier doubles team of Chang Chenchen and Jiang Hui is gone, who will play doubles? Will the team test out a Hirano/Hayata doubles pairing? If they do, and the pair does well, will this factor in JTTA's decision in choosing the Japan Women's Olympic Team?
      Very interesting. I think now Ito is in trouble, since she has competition. They all working hard and it pays off. Ishikawa was really poor and since the score 3:4 against SYS I saw something new. Then she defeat World no 1. If you earlier asked me who is going to win I would bet 1milion dolar for CM. Now few other wins against chinese players is also confirming the New level.
      I did not expect much from Hirano but this Czech Open despite the score it is also New level.
      Sadly I do not see much improvement from Ito and it is a big headache for JTTA.

    31. The Following User Likes Sali's Post:

      Vlad Celler (08-27-2019)

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      pongfugrasshopper is offline
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      Quote Originally Posted by Sali View Post
      Very interesting. I think now Ito is in trouble, since she has competition. They all working hard and it pays off. Ishikawa was really poor and since the score 3:4 against SYS I saw something new. Then she defeat World no 1. If you earlier asked me who is going to win I would bet 1milion dolar for CM. Now few other wins against chinese players is also confirming the New level.
      I did not expect much from Hirano but this Czech Open despite the score it is also New level.
      Sadly I do not see much improvement from Ito and it is a big headache for JTTA.
      I think she needs to bring it down on the backhand. She's going 200 miles per hour because she wants to dominate those backhand rallies, but I think she can still do so slowing down by maybe 10%. That's what MH did, and it did wonders for her consistentcy. She needs to end the year strong and she needs a mental break so decided to skip Paraguay. And it will give her some time to recalibrate a more effective BH. I hope she comes back refreshed and ready to go.

    33. The Following User Likes pongfugrasshopper's Post:

      Vlad Celler (08-27-2019)

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