Japan Women's Race to Tokyo 2020 Singles

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From the Team World Cup Prospectus:

"Change of the composition of a team may be accepted if notified by arepresentative of the nominating Association to the Competition Manager, up tothe time of 4 November 12:00 (local time); no further changes will be acceptedafter this deadline."

Come on JTTA, you still have time to add Hayata as the 5th team member!

Why don’t they want to add Hayata?What other proof is needed that she is at least not inferior to Ishikawa?
Although yes .... In recent months, couples practiced only Ishikawa-Hirano ......
Mistake, obvious mistake of the JTTA leadership, my opinion .....
 
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says Shoo...nothing to see here. - zeio
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https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCV...X0W_BtfpaEiBDSZ4AaABCQ.90sPVFHWMpm90sRPPI0hTP
よしぱぱドライブ
2 hours ago
オリンピック選考レースも実質終了で、早田はある意味でノープレッシャーでの優勝かな~~?
早田、運、タイミング悪いっていうか? 悲劇のヒロイン的な感じが拭いきれない、そのはかなさも魅力なんだけどね。
Yoshipapa Drive
2 hours ago
The Olympic selection race has effectively ended, and Hayata won under no pressure in a sense.
Hayata, fate, bad timing? The feeling of tragic heroine cannot be wiped away, but its fascination is also attractive.
 
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The third player for team is recommended by the headquarters in consideration of the compatibility in doubles with the 2 representatives, but it is indispensable to be ranked higher in the world ranking as it affects the seeding of the team event.

For the Japanese Women's Race, the WR of the 3rd Olympic player isn't actually that important for team seeding. Japan's main goal is to stay the 2nd seed to be drawn in the opposite half of China. However, even if the 3rd player was WR 699 in the world, Japan would still be the 2nd seed as long as Ito remains the highest ranked non-Chinese player and there aren't two players from the same country that have a higher WR than the 2nd Olympic player (either Hirano or Ishikawa). I do not see any other country (HK, Singapore, Korea, Taiwan) having TWO (2) players ranked higher than either Hirano or Ishikawa in time for the Olympics. Japan could even send Miwa Harimoto with zero WR points as the 3rd team member, but as long as the two singles players of Japan are determined by highest WR, Japan should be seeded second.

If a miracle happens and another country manages to get two players to have a higher WR than Ishikawa or Hirano, in time for the Olympics, Japan would still be seeded 2nd as long as the 3rd player has a higher WR than the 3rd player of that country. Right now, the 3rd players of other countries are generally ranked in the 30s to 50s at the highest. Japan currently has 8 players all ranked higher than another country's 3rd player, so it is virtually impossible for Japan not to be seeded 2nd if it selects anyone among Japan's top 8 players as the 3rd player.

If JTTA doesn't select Hayata for the Olympics, it won't be because her WR isn't good enough for the team's seeding, but will likely be for other factors. The fact that Maharu Yoshimura, Japan's No. 6 player on the men's side is being considered over Niwa for Olympics (based on the TWC commercials) despite having an even lower WR than Hayata gives us hope that JTTA isn't going to base the 3rd Olympic spot solely on WR.

Still, any gain in WR points will make it easier for JTTA to choose you. There was an article reposted by TV Tokyo where a survey was done for Japanese fans' favorite female athletes across all sports. Ishikawa was 5th, Hirano was 8th and Ito was 9th, so if any of these were replaced by Hayata, backlash from the public is to be expected since Hayata isn't as popular as those 3 yet. Majority of the people simply look at WR without going beyond what has led to such a WR like seeding, luck of the draw and limited number of participants per country in major ITTF events. It would be easier for JTTA to justify its decision and soften the backlash if Hayata's WR was in the 20s as opposed to the 50s.

This year's WR race has been a roller-coaster ride. We've gone from Ito being in danger of losing out on the singles race to her virtually securing her singles spot by performing well in October. Hirano and Ishikawa's early exits in the last two tournaments have cast some doubts on their preparedness for the Olympics and has opened the door for others to possible challenge for the 3rd Olympic spot. Lastly, we may see an unprecedented amount of high ranking Japanese players enter in the North American Open due to the intensity and competitiveness of the Olympic race. These last two months are going to be a lot of fun, and I'm bracing myself for a wild ride.
 
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says Shoo...nothing to see here. - zeio
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After a quick look, it looks like the 3rd player will play a greater role this time due to the format change.

Because of how the doubles is counted, Hong Kong is currently ranked higher than Taipei instead in the Olympic ranking, despite the top 2 players of the former being lowered ranked than their counterparts, respectively. Same deal for South Korea and Singapore, as well as Austria and Romania.

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Notes:
1. The Olympic Team Ranking is based on the ranking points of the three (3) highest Olympic ranked athletes. The calculation method is based on the World Team Ranking principles, with the only difference that the simulation of the matches is based on the Olympic match system (BC vs YZ, A vs X, C vs Z, A vs Y, B vs X). Doubles match winner is determined comparing the sum of the singles ranking points of each of the pairs.

2. The Olympic Ranking will be used for ranking, as well as for seeding (July 2020), for the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games.

3. The Olympic Ranking Lists are up to date with all eligible athletes, pairs and teams at the time and do not have a limit based on the maximum quota per event, until the full lists of qualified athletes, pairs and teams are confirmed.

4. Possible exceptions as might be considered and confirmed by the IOC, leading up to the qualification for the Olympic Games, will appear on the Olympic Rankings.

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Hayata will lose a substantial amount of points in the first half of next year(2x 1100 in Feb and Mar, then 850 in May). Given all this, I feel that the JNT will pick Hirano/Ishikawa over Hayata for safety on 2020/1/6.

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“Thank you for all your support. This tournament was a triumph for myself, in endurance both mentally & physically. Even though there were anxieties and apprehension, I was able to concentrate on believing in myself, and winning in the end. I still have a lot of challenges ahead, but allow me to show you the results day by day for your support.”
 
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View attachment 20044
“Thank you for all your support. This tournament was a triumph for myself, in endurance both mentally & physically. Even though there were anxieties and apprehension, I was able to concentrate on believing in myself, and winning in the end. I still have a lot of challenges ahead, but allow me to show you the results day by day for your support.”

Markham! You can !
(China, as usual, is pulling time until the last moment .... I wait with fear ...)
 
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Hayata will lose a substantial amount of points in the first half of next year(2x 1100 in Feb and Mar, then 850 in May). Given all this, I feel that the JNT will pick Hirano/Ishikawa over Hayata for safety on 2020/1/6.

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Unfortunately, Hina Hayata will have noticeable deductions in the December ranking of this year ....If in November she will retain its position, then in December it will fall .....Kato Miyu will also fall in December, but still Kato Miyu will most likely be higher in the ranking than Hayata .....
 
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Unfortunately, Hina Hayata will have noticeable deductions in the December ranking of this year ....If in November she will retain its position, then in December it will fall .....Kato Miyu will also fall in December, but still Kato Miyu will most likely be higher in the ranking than Hayata .....

Kato seems like the most ill-fated person on the women's team – the one who will never be picked no matter what she does.
 
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This time ITTF is punctual ...As promised ... A minute per minute ....
November rating .....

https://results.ittf.link/index.php?option=com_fabrik&view=list&listid=70&Itemid=207


Clarification-the results of the Belarus Challenger are not included in this rating ....

The November rankings prove that T2 makes such a whole world of difference. ZYL, WMY and DN are basically clinging onto their positions as 1st, 2nd and 3rd in Malaysia to maintain their top 6 positions.
 
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After a quick look, it looks like the 3rd player will play a greater role this time due to the format change.

Because of how the doubles is counted, Hong Kong is currently ranked higher than Taipei instead in the Olympic ranking, despite the top 2 players of the former being lowered ranked than their counterparts, respectively. Same deal for South Korea and Singapore, as well as Austria and Romania.

Thank you Zeio for pointing this out! This will definitely affect calculations to some extent and does make gaining WR points in these last few tournaments of the year more important for Hayata. Despite the different calculation for Olympic Team Seeding, it still seems highly unlikely for Japan to fall out of the 2nd seed even if they send Hayata.

For Japan to lose the 2nd seed all these 3 conditions must happen at the same time:
1. Another country must have a player ranked higher than either Hirano or Ishikawa. This is the most realistic condition, but only a few countries have some shot of achieving this. (HK, Taiwan, Singapore and Korea.)

2. Hayata must be ranked lower than that other country's 3rd player. Zeio brought up a good point that Hayata is in danger of losing points by July 2020 since her WR points from her major wins in Portugal, Oman and Serbia will expire by then. However, it's extremely unlikely Hayata won't be able to make up for those points in the last few tournaments this year and first few next year.

In fact, Hayata's effective WR point total for July 2020 is currently at 5390 points. (It's still 4880 in Zeio's spreadsheet on post #789 since he didn't update the Belarus Open points yet. Also, for Ito fans looking at the spreadsheet and seeing that she's 1000 points behind Ishikawa in the July 2020 WR race, don't be alarmed since Ito only has 6 events while Ishikawa has 8.)​

This means that even if Hayata doesn't play any more tournaments until the Olympics in 2020, the lowest WR point total she can have for the Olympics is 5390. This is still currently higher than the point totals of Taiwan's, Singapore's and Korea's 3rd best player. Hayata was able to achieve more WR points in 4 months of tournaments than another country's 3rd best player is one year of tournaments.​

3. The combined WR points of Hayata and the 2nd player of Japan (either Hirano or Ishikawa) must be lower than the combined WR points of the 2nd and 3rd best player of that other country. Currently, we can estimate that either Hirano or Ishikawa will have around 10,000 WR points since they're really much higher ranked than any other country's 2nd best player. Combine that with Hayata's minimum of 5390 WR points for a total of 15390 points. That's still 2000+ points greater than next highest combinations of HK with 13000 points and Taiwan with 12000 points.​

Achieving one of these conditions is hard enough and achieving all three conditions at the same time is nearly impossible. It still appears that Japan's seeding is safe even with the new team ranking calculation method for the Olympics. However, I'm definitely retracting my statement that Japan would still be seeded 2nd even if they sent Miwa Harimoto as the third player. Haha.
 
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Thanks a lot, Apacible .....

(By the way, China made its move to Markham ..... 12 players, the so-called third team ...And although formally Hina Hayata seeding nr. 5, in any case, the struggle will be very difficult .....)
 
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