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The last couple of months its no race anymore. Its lame ducks going next to each other
says
Shoo...nothing to see here. - zeio
Hirano and Ishikawa are so courteous to each other.
It'll come down to the NA Open and WTGF. Both of them will have to win(1100 pts) at the NA Open to gain points.
This is what you get for playing 19+2 and 18+2 events non-stop.
It'll come down to the NA Open and WTGF. Both of them will have to win(1100 pts) at the NA Open to gain points.
This is what you get for playing 19+2 and 18+2 events non-stop.
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Right....
Ishikawa and Hirano will have a minimum 8th result in the December ITTF ranking - 900 points ....Victory can bring plus 200 points ....But only victory (finalist gets 880)
says
Shoo...nothing to see here. - zeio
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Preliminary calculation of the December rating of the ITTF (WS) (attention! possible inaccuracies!)
1- C.M. 16565 gf-2018/2550
S.Y.S. 15715 gf-2018/1530
L.S.W. 14955 gf-2018/1785
4- ITO Mima 14690 gf-2018/1530
- Z.Y.L. 14010 gf-2018//2040
- WANG Manyu 13875 gf-2018/1785
- D.N. 13690 gf-2018/2040
- C.I.C. 11680 gf-2018/1785
- F.T. 11610 gf-2018/1530
10-Hirano 11325 NA gf-2018/1530
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11-Ishikawa 11245 NA gf-2018/1785
17-SATO Hitomi 8805 NA gf-2018/1530
23-KATO Miyu 7545 NA
24-HAYATA Hina 7520 NA
(theoretically, Ito Mima has certain chances to become No. 3 in the January ranking, bypassing LSW ...Ito seeding second, and the LSW is much lower in GF-2019.....)
1- C.M. 16565 gf-2018/2550
S.Y.S. 15715 gf-2018/1530
L.S.W. 14955 gf-2018/1785
4- ITO Mima 14690 gf-2018/1530
- Z.Y.L. 14010 gf-2018//2040
- WANG Manyu 13875 gf-2018/1785
- D.N. 13690 gf-2018/2040
- C.I.C. 11680 gf-2018/1785
- F.T. 11610 gf-2018/1530
10-Hirano 11325 NA gf-2018/1530
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11-Ishikawa 11245 NA gf-2018/1785
17-SATO Hitomi 8805 NA gf-2018/1530
23-KATO Miyu 7545 NA
24-HAYATA Hina 7520 NA
(theoretically, Ito Mima has certain chances to become No. 3 in the January ranking, bypassing LSW ...Ito seeding second, and the LSW is much lower in GF-2019.....)
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Race to Tokyo: December Events Breakdown
With only 3 tournaments left until the singles spots are decided, here's a breakdown of the possible scenarios:
Women's Race
For Ishikawa to get a singles spot she either needs to win the North American Open or advance 1 round further than Hirano in the WTGF. In either case, she will need to beat at least 1 Chinese player or Ito before the year ends to qualify for singles. The North American Open has too many Chinese players that it will be impossible to win the tournament without beating at least one. In the WTGF, Ishikawa has an 87.5% chance of drawing a Chinese player in the first round while the other 12.5% is drawing Ito. In either case, she will be the underdog whoever she faces in the first round.
Men's Race
Because Niwa qualified for T2 Singapore and was able to get bonus points, he's now in the driver's seat to get the 2nd singles spot. While he's currently behind Mizutani by 60 points, he'll overtake Mizutani after the Men's World Cup even if he loses in the first round because he's guaranteed 1020 points. Because Mizutani withdrew from the North American Open, Mizutani only has the WTGF to gain points over Niwa, and Mizutani needs to reach at least the QF to do so.
However, there's more bad news for Mizutani since Wong Chun Ting got injured in T2 and there's a good chance that his injury is serious enough that he'll miss the WTGF. If that happens, Niwa will take WCT's place in the WTGF, which forces Mizutani to reach at least the SF to get the 2nd singles spot. Mizutani, like Ishikawa, is an underdog in any possible first-round matchup in the WTGF. If you add the fact that Niwa has a decent chance of making the QF in the Men's World Cup, which would force Mizutani to make the final of the WTGF to qualify, Mizutani's chances in playing singles in the Olympics look dimmer than Ishikawa's.
Mixed Doubles
Based on this year's results, there seem to be only 3 viable pairs to send to the Olympics, but the problem is that each pair has at least one player not guaranteed to make the Olympic team:
If Yoshimura is selected over Mizutani for the 3rd spot to ensure a workable doubles pairing for the Men's team event, Japan can choose from Hayata/Harimoto or Ishikawa/Yoshimura. The problem with Ishikawa/Yoshimura is that while they have won 3 medals in the WTTC, the pairing has performed badly in the 2018 World Tour. Because of this, they practically discontinued the pairing in 2019, so Ishikawa/Yoshimura only has 2 of 8 tournaments in their best 8 results: a finals appearance in the WTTC and a first-round exit in the Korean Open. It will be hard for them to get a top 4 seed, which will hamper their chances at medals in the Olympics.
Hayata/Harimoto has a better doubles WR because of better results on the World Tour, so it will be easier for this pair to get good seeding in time for the Olympics. The main concerns with this pairing are experience and consistency. There is no doubt that the Hayata/Harimoto pairing has a high ceiling when playing well since they beat Ito/Mizutani and 2 Chinese pairs consisting of core team players. However, they've also had close calls against XD pairs from other countries like HK, Germany, France, and Korea, so the pairing is also highly upset-prone.
We're approaching the end of the year and we're getting a better idea of who's likely to get the singles spots. Still, it only takes one big tournament to change the outcome, so I'll be closely following the rest of the year's tournaments.
With only 3 tournaments left until the singles spots are decided, here's a breakdown of the possible scenarios:
Women's Race
For Ishikawa to get a singles spot she either needs to win the North American Open or advance 1 round further than Hirano in the WTGF. In either case, she will need to beat at least 1 Chinese player or Ito before the year ends to qualify for singles. The North American Open has too many Chinese players that it will be impossible to win the tournament without beating at least one. In the WTGF, Ishikawa has an 87.5% chance of drawing a Chinese player in the first round while the other 12.5% is drawing Ito. In either case, she will be the underdog whoever she faces in the first round.
Men's Race
Because Niwa qualified for T2 Singapore and was able to get bonus points, he's now in the driver's seat to get the 2nd singles spot. While he's currently behind Mizutani by 60 points, he'll overtake Mizutani after the Men's World Cup even if he loses in the first round because he's guaranteed 1020 points. Because Mizutani withdrew from the North American Open, Mizutani only has the WTGF to gain points over Niwa, and Mizutani needs to reach at least the QF to do so.
However, there's more bad news for Mizutani since Wong Chun Ting got injured in T2 and there's a good chance that his injury is serious enough that he'll miss the WTGF. If that happens, Niwa will take WCT's place in the WTGF, which forces Mizutani to reach at least the SF to get the 2nd singles spot. Mizutani, like Ishikawa, is an underdog in any possible first-round matchup in the WTGF. If you add the fact that Niwa has a decent chance of making the QF in the Men's World Cup, which would force Mizutani to make the final of the WTGF to qualify, Mizutani's chances in playing singles in the Olympics look dimmer than Ishikawa's.
Mixed Doubles
Based on this year's results, there seem to be only 3 viable pairs to send to the Olympics, but the problem is that each pair has at least one player not guaranteed to make the Olympic team:
- Ito/Mizutani (Mizutani not guaranteed an Olympic spot)
- Hayata/Harimoto (Hayata not guaranteed an Olympic spot)
- Ishikawa/Yoshimura (Neither are guaranteed an Olympic spot)
If Yoshimura is selected over Mizutani for the 3rd spot to ensure a workable doubles pairing for the Men's team event, Japan can choose from Hayata/Harimoto or Ishikawa/Yoshimura. The problem with Ishikawa/Yoshimura is that while they have won 3 medals in the WTTC, the pairing has performed badly in the 2018 World Tour. Because of this, they practically discontinued the pairing in 2019, so Ishikawa/Yoshimura only has 2 of 8 tournaments in their best 8 results: a finals appearance in the WTTC and a first-round exit in the Korean Open. It will be hard for them to get a top 4 seed, which will hamper their chances at medals in the Olympics.
Hayata/Harimoto has a better doubles WR because of better results on the World Tour, so it will be easier for this pair to get good seeding in time for the Olympics. The main concerns with this pairing are experience and consistency. There is no doubt that the Hayata/Harimoto pairing has a high ceiling when playing well since they beat Ito/Mizutani and 2 Chinese pairs consisting of core team players. However, they've also had close calls against XD pairs from other countries like HK, Germany, France, and Korea, so the pairing is also highly upset-prone.
We're approaching the end of the year and we're getting a better idea of who's likely to get the singles spots. Still, it only takes one big tournament to change the outcome, so I'll be closely following the rest of the year's tournaments.
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Thank you very much, very detailed analysis ....
Your opinion is interesting, what are the chances of Ishikawa (or Hirano) to win in the TOP-12? (Of course, Ito does not count ...)
TOP-12 - December 21-22 .....
Grand Final 2019 - pay attention .....The new ITTF ranking system sharply reduced the points earned ....I believe there will be a mandatory replacement of last year’s results with the results of this year ...Minimum - 1020, defeat in the first round ....
For example, in order for Ishikawa not to lose points, she needs to score 1800 points, and this is the finalist .....Hirano and Ito are enough to get into the semifinals (1530 old - 1660 new) .....
Given that on the preliminary list, the entire Chinese female top 8....
If China does not change its composition upon confirmation, then Ishikawa and Hirano with a probability of one hundred percent in the first round will fall to the Chinese top 8 or Ito ......
Your opinion is interesting, what are the chances of Ishikawa (or Hirano) to win in the TOP-12? (Of course, Ito does not count ...)
TOP-12 - December 21-22 .....
Grand Final 2019 - pay attention .....The new ITTF ranking system sharply reduced the points earned ....I believe there will be a mandatory replacement of last year’s results with the results of this year ...Minimum - 1020, defeat in the first round ....
For example, in order for Ishikawa not to lose points, she needs to score 1800 points, and this is the finalist .....Hirano and Ito are enough to get into the semifinals (1530 old - 1660 new) .....
Given that on the preliminary list, the entire Chinese female top 8....
If China does not change its composition upon confirmation, then Ishikawa and Hirano with a probability of one hundred percent in the first round will fall to the Chinese top 8 or Ito ......
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I just do not see koki niwa Play singles in olympics. I cannot understand how he can take singles spot having worst year in his career.
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Japan has decreed that the top 2 Japanese in WR on Jan 6 2020 will take the 2 Singles spots (for both Men & Women). The WR is decided by the best 8 results +T2. Niwa certainly has an edge over Mizutani now, (see Apacible above).
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NL: yes but it was quite long ago and from that time he mostly lost every match he player.
T/C: Yes I know what you mean. But do you really think JTTA will choose Niwa over Mizutani?
I think rules can be changed
T/C: Yes I know what you mean. But do you really think JTTA will choose Niwa over Mizutani?
I think rules can be changed
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Going into last 2 battles of the race, both Ishikawa & Hirano seem to be on their last gasping breath, fatigued by almost 20 world hopping Tournaments, demoralized by constant losing, and the inability to get ahead of the other, and mentally overloaded with anxiety. They are in the worst possible condition heading into the fateful fight at the WTGF.
I think they should give up Markham
and rest up for that one final lunge to gain 1 round more than the other. But it’s a ‘chickens’ game, neither wants to withdraw first, to give up the possible edge (of winning the Markham tour). I don’t see that happening at all, both are running out of steam.This leaves a somewhat hilarious scenario that this Single spot would be decided by the narrowest margin of a 65 points lead by Hirano. Neither of the 2 was able to better the other, with fumbles, missteps, squandered opportunities along the way. This despite Ishikawa miraculously got into the first T2 and 400 pts, but cannot take advantage of it (!).
Not that it matters, looking at their performances lately, either one will be serving up her head on a platter to the Chinese come Tokyo. But their stumbles to get there were both infuriating and entertaining.
In the end, Ito proved herself. Despite fears in the first part of the year that the most deserving one may get short changed because of the Word Cup. It turned out she is indisputably the TOP Japanese, and doesn’t even need the last 3 Tournaments to solidify her position. Good for you Mima !!
This Race was an exercise in futility, with enough twists to make a TV series. Zen out...
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So sorry Sali-san, but if rules can be changed when they appear to be unfavourable to one, then they’re no longer rules for everyone, isn’t that true ?
It was up front, in no uncertain terms, and transparent. Very fair for all those in the fight, even though the outcome isn’t aligned with popular sentiments. Unfortunately....
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It would be much easier if they take this year points gained. Anyway mizutani skills are much higher then Niwa. He had bad period which could be connected to his private life. Now he seems to be back on form, good match against dima and good start against LGY.
Of course they can choose whoever they like but for mizutani it is definitely his last olympics and he is the best player in Japan considering longer period. In my opinion he deserves single spot.
On the other hand if they choose some youngster like harimoto age to take his place that is ok, but Niwa come on.
Of course they can choose whoever they like but for mizutani it is definitely his last olympics and he is the best player in Japan considering longer period. In my opinion he deserves single spot.
On the other hand if they choose some youngster like harimoto age to take his place that is ok, but Niwa come on.
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Everyone goes through tough periods. There isn't that much difference between Mizutani and Niwa in big events when both are at their peak. Mizutani is clearly the greater player but Niwa does pretty well. A bad patch cannot be what you look at only when deciding who to play.
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There is a big difference between them, just check how many national championships mizutani has and how many Niwa (many times he never advanced to the final or even semis). Take how many ittf cups niwa won and how many mizutani.
The same would be if china takes LGY over Ma long just because he is higher ranked.
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Shoo...nothing to see here. - zeio
Not really in the race, but Nagasaki just lost to Amy Wang of USA in the JGT QF of the WJTTC.
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Well, if you would rather send an injured Ma Long or a blind Mizutani over a healthy Lin Gaoyuan or Koki Niwa, that is your prerogative. My point is that Koki Niwa is an accomplished TT player and there is no point making it sound like he can't play when he goes through bad periods because you want to forget his good periods. In 2016 Olympics, he was eliminated by Zhang Jike and was part of the silver medal winning squad. He has been a quarter finalist at last 2 WTTC which is better than Mizutani. Mizutani is the greater player, but Koki Niwa is not undeserving. That is my point. Ma Long is the greater player, but Xu Xin is not undeserving and if chosen, neither is Lin Gaoyuan. If Mizutani was that much better in this year where Niwa has supposedly played like crap, then why are we having this discussion if Mizutani hasn't played like crap?
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If you would hold Ishikawa to the same standards...
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I think we are not that far from each other. I am not choosing injured or blind players. ML is having big break now probably connected to his injury. But if there was something like in japan (top 2 players from ranking) he might not have enough time to reach top 2. Meaning they will choose XX (well deserved IMO) and FZD - no place for healthy Ma Long (just got cured too late)
I am not underestimating KN - he defeated many top players but he is not improving much to reach Mizutani level. They both have very bad year but I have no doubts Mizutani is better player and have more potential beating top players.
Of course I remember last olympics. Mizutani was in top form. I think if he was in the other half he would beat ZJK (who was not in great form that time) - but this is just my assumption.
Again I choose: experience and skills - which in my opinion makes Mizutani better potential.
Anyway I understand your point, I am not going to die for Mizutani
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