Japan Women's Race to Tokyo 2020 Singles

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.....Even if that happens, Sato will likely not be chosen for the 3rd spot as a chopper just doesn't pair well with an attacker...

Yes..
 
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After Japan Open, with 6 common events so far, points that matter for January 2020 decision:
Ito 2000+1125+900+1465+1440+675=7605
Hirano 1500+900+1500+900+1170+1465=7435
Ishikawa 1750+1170+1200+900+720+900=6640

Ito & Hirano can add a minimun of 400 each to the above for playing in the first T2 Diamond in July.

There are 3 Platinum & 4 WT events left for the year.

Cutoff for the 2nd T2 Bonus event is July 15, which will include results from Korea Op and Australian Op.
After Japan Op, Ito has 450, Hirano 363 and Ishikawa 141 qualifying pts heading towards the deadline.
 
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After Japan Open, with 6 common events so far, points that matter for January 2020 decision:
Ito 2000+1125+900+1465+1440+675=7605
Hirano 1500+900+1500+900+1170+1465=7435
Ishikawa 1750+1170+1200+900+720+900=6640

Ito & Hirano can add a minimun of 400 each to the above for playing in the first T2 Diamond in July.

There are 3 Platinum & 4 WT events left for the year.

Cutoff for the 2nd T2 Bonus event is July 15, which will include results from Korea Op and Australian Op.
After Japan Op, Ito has 450, Hirano 363 and Ishikawa 141 qualifying pts heading towards the deadline.


High probability that C.I.C. in the ITTF rating for August or September will be higher than that of Japanese girls ...
Of course, by 2020 all old bonuses will be reset to zero ....But current ITTF ratings affect seeding ....
Although in principle for Ito, for example, there is no difference in sowing - nr.7 or nr.8 ....A guaranteed meeting no later than the third round with top Chinese women ....
Most likely, in the near future, China will occupy the first six places (WS) in the ITTF rating (due to the S.Y.S.) ....
 
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I think everyone agrees that Sato played really well in the recent 2 tournaments. Unfortunately her chance to play 2020 Olympic is very low as a chopper. Besides the top 3, her chance is even lower than Hayata, Kato or Shibata.
 
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I wonder if the Chinese have an internal metric for selection as well. In their case it would be something along the lines of number of tournaments won, not how far one progresses in a tournament. I think that alone shows the difference between the two teams.


They have internal rankings based on a variety of criteria (CSL, Tour,) and coaches discretion as well. I don't think only winning tournaments counts. But maybe someone with more insight might provide details.
 
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Curious .... JTTA can not make a replacement?

No. There is a whole selection process described in their qualification document based on placement in continental cups and ranking. You can't get in without playing the continental cup.

Usually when China replaces, it is because they are pulling out either the World Champ or the top performer in the Asian Cup and the next guy/lady did well enough to be the replacement. So if LSW doesn't go this year, then Chen Meng is going. Or if ZYL doesn't go, CM goes. But right now LSW and ZYL are going.

On the men's side they are locked into ML and FZD unless they lobby ITTF to use wildcard on one of their players If either pulls out.
 
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Thank you. Sadly .....
(But suppose Hirano or Ishikawa is seriously injured, ill .....Is there really no replacement mechanism in this case?)
 
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Thank you. Sadly .....
(But suppose Hirano or Ishikawa is seriously injured, ill .....Is there really no replacement mechanism in this case?)

The next player in the Continental cups takes over. Unless ITTF nominates a replacement in the wild card spot, there is no replacement mechanism in the sense that the spot belongs to Japan (it doesn't).
 
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It seems I could be wrong. I just re-read the document and saw line 3.1 (substitutions). But someone has to explain how it might work. If it does work the way I don't think it does, then they may allow Ito to replace anyone Japan removes because her ranking is high enough. But I don't think it is allowed.

Also, there is 3.6, so if Japan tries to replace after the entry close date, ITTF can nominate anyone they want including Ito. So this might be the route.
 
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It is theoretically possible that in a month or two Ito (or Hirano) in the ITTF rating will be higher than Ishikawa ...(Ishikawa has more deductions than Ito and Hirano, and reserves, on the contrary, are less ....)
 
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Section 3.5 would still prevail, ie the next in line of the Asian Cup will get the spot, not necessarily Japan.
3.6 is an backdoor/escape clause after everything is ‘locked up’ giving ITTF some wriggle room. But to apply it without sufficient grounds negates the whole structure/process of going through the different continental cups, with it’s association quota.
World Cup is an INVITATION, Japan doesn’t get to send anyone they want/wish, nor do they ‘own’ that spot even when one of their members is selected. Not to mention the possibility of a scandal developing, as whoever gets bumped off will have her supporters too. The hue & cry so ensued is not something JTTA would contemplate, not wisely anyway.
Besides, no matter who we favour, thinks should go, Ishikawa & Hirano won their place according to rules & performance at the time. For fairness sake, it should be allowed to run its course.

edit: case in point, in 2016 both DN & LSW withdrew claiming sickness. China didn’t get to send any replacements, even though there were many CNT women who were highly qualified, but not selected for Rio Olympics that would have given anything to go.
 
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