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Japan Women's Race to Tokyo 2020 Singles

Jacky Kwok

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Jacky Kwok

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100% agree.

Actually for men’s team, they need to consider 2 points:
(1) If they want Harimoto to play 2 single, then select a player who can play double with Niwa which will be Maharu Yoshimura.
(2) But more importantly, they want to be as high seed as possible which will increase their chance of getting a medal. In this case, they need to select Mizutani because the other players’ ranking are much much lower.
 
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Janard

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Their play here (if Mizutani and Hirano are indeed the third players) is clearly to secure a XD gold to raise Ito's morale so that her chances of winning WS are higher. My read is that they are sidelining the women's and men's team events for this Olympics (more of the former since the latter has always been less competitive). Harimoto, well.
 
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Vlad Celler

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Interesting .. Has anyone considered what is the balance of wins / losses in the T-League for Ishikawa-Hayata?

If I understand correctly, the composition of the team at WTTTC has not yet been determined?
WD matters to WTTTC ...
Ishikawa - Hirano - guaranteed defeat from China (and possibly not only China ...)
 
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Vlad Celler

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Thank...
Well then ...In a week, All of Japan ...There Hayata in one half with Kato, Sato, Hirano ....Hayat’s fate is literally in her hands ...In any case, Kato and Hayata serious tournaments will be on an equal footing, qualify...And there - how it goes ... Skill plus a bit of luck ....
 

zeio

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zeio

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Heck, 2 years after the race began with WTTC 2018, the reserve player turns out to be the most fun to predict. Who's the poor soul gonna be?

eYHErbH.png

Wbh7jHT.png
 
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apacible

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apacible

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"４．リザーブ候補選手1 名日本がメダルを獲得するために必要なダブルス及びシングルスでの国際競争力を持ち合わせている者1 名を、強化本部が決定し理事会に報告及びJOC に推薦する。リザーブ選手の発表時期はJOC へのエントリー期限直前とする"

4. Reserve candidate
Japan has international competitiveness in doubles and singles necessary to win medals
One person who has been combined shall be determined by the Headquarters, reported to the Board of Directors and recommended to the JOC.
Reserve players will be announced shortly before the entry deadline for the JOC.

Sorry, I assumed the reserve players would also be announced today, but after reading the Tokyo 2020 Qualification document again, I realized they still have until May 15, the entry deadline, so the reserve player will likely be announced sometime in May.

May 2020 WR rather than Jan. 2020 WR may be used as a factor in selecting the reserve spot, so the next few tournaments will be crucial for the Non-Olympic team members. One must also take into account the expiration of WR points of the early 2019 tournaments and how this will ultimately affect the April 2020 WR for players. For example, Hayata has both the Portugal Open and Oman Open, as part of her Top 8 Results (Top 4 in Fact!), and these will both expire by May 2020, so her ranking for May 2020 will significantly drop unless she performs well in the next few tournaments.

Furthermore, the next few tournaments is an opportunity to prove themselves as suitable doubles partners. If the Hayata/Kato Women's Doubles pair does well, it increases the chance for one of them to be selected as a reserve player.

Let the Race to Tokyo 2020 Reserve Spot begin!
 
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Vlad Celler

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The impending losses of Hayata and Kato (due to the deduction of old points) are, in general, quite comparable ....
Hayata - (-1100/2-2019),(-1100/3-2019),(-850/5-2019) = (-3050/reserv)
Kato - (-900/3-2019,-850/3-2019),(-680/5-2019) = (-2430/reserv)

Now Kato and Hayata are on an equal footing, that is, the unconditional need to play qualifications in serious tournaments ....
Neither Shibata nor Kihara-Nagasaki-Honoka will be able to rise to the level in the ranking until the middle of the year ....
As for Sato, she has practically no deductions of old bonuses until the middle of the year ....My opinion is that Kato - Hayata is unlikely to catch up to it by the middle of the year (in the ITTF rating) ...
 

MaLin2.0

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apacible said:
Funny how JTTA wanted to make things exciting and suspenseful with a whole press conference revealing the 3rd Olympic member of the Japanese Men's and Women's team on Jan. 6, 12:55pm Japan Time. It ended up being anticlimactic because the deadline for doubles entries for the German Open is Jan. 5, so JTTA was forced to reveal its intended doubles lineups ahead of time. It's easy to guess the Japan's Olympic team lineup based on who JTTA sent to the German Open. (I may be wrong, but this is my theory based on the German Open doubles pairings)

For the Men's team, the 3rd spot will likely go to Mizutani.
  1. Ito/Mizutani XD Pair is declared for the German Open
  2. There's no M. Yoshimura/Ishikawa XD Pair declared for the German Open and Yoshimura was the only realistic choice for the 3rd player aside from Mizutani. If M. Yoshimura was selected as the 3rd member over Mizutani, JTTA would likely have sent the Yoshimura/Ishikawa Pair to the German Open to gain ranking points for seeding, but I'm assuming they didn't do that because JTTA knows it's going to send Ito/Mizutani to play XD in the Olympics and means that Miztuani HAS to be part of the Men's team.
  3. Niwa/Harimoto is declared as a MD pair. If M. Yoshimura were selected, they would have sent Niwa/M. Yoshimura instead. JTTA still seems to believe the two-lefty pair for Niwa and Mizutani will never work in doubles, so Harimoto, being the only righty on the team, is being sent to practice doubles for the team event.

For the Women's team, the 3rd spot will likely go to Hirano.
  1. Ishikawa/Hirano WD pair is declared for the German Open to practice doubles. With Ito likely playing two singles in the team event.
  2. No Hayata/Ito or Hayata/Ishikawa WD pair was declared, so it's unlikely Hayata is the 3rd team member.
  3. Hayata/Kato is declared for WD. This likely means either Hayata or Kato is the reserve player. I believe JTTA want Hayata and Kato to practice playing Women's doubles again since neither has participated in that event in many months. In case either Ito, Hirano or Ishikawa gets injured, at least Hayata and Kato will have some experience playing WD and can be a suitable replacement. Hayata might have the slight edge over Kato for the reserve spot given she can also play XD with Harimoto, and Hayata/Harimoto was also declared for the German Open.
Click to expand...

That's Japan's weakness is the doubles pairing for both Men's & Ladies, that's where they can drop games and being team event can be big, mixed they are covered as JM & Mima are fantastic but when you say Harimoto pepping for doubles makes me think might not get to final. Has me concerned.

Singels team matcges might not be as effective due to not have top singles players being in those 2 rubbers
 

MaLin2.0

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Vlad Celler said:
Personally, I am not very satisfied ....:eek:
The probability of a team victory over the women's national team of China in this composition is a maximum of one third .....:(
Click to expand...

CNT have the strongest team no doubt, Men's team will take top 3 players in the world and Ladie's team will take 3 of the top 4, big odds for any team to overcome. Silver medal for any team is an achievement.

Difference for team Japan compared to 2016 is they have home ground and better chances at Gold, last Olympics was evident CNT would clean out.
Harimoto I rate higher than Mizutani in 2016 and he won a bronze
Mima is better than Kasumi & Fukuhara in 2016
JNT look much improved and actual threat. More so singles and Mixed.
 
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