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H2H stats vs CIC show Miyu Kato lost once in 2016 (Kuwait), won in 2018 (Swedish) , won at this year's WTTC, and now won at this German Open so I wouldn't consider it an upset.
Haven't checked those. I mean if I was to bet on their match I would go for Cheng probably because I known her for much longer time and she always has been a top player (she's #10 now). Kato caught my ear/eye basically about a year ago when she beat Hayata in the Japanese tournament for the Budapest qualification ...
The discussion is a little academic ; ) and I understand an "upset" rather intuitively. It functions better in "big" tennis, where the rankings are far more accurate and there's no "unlimited" source of players not ranked, but able to challenge even top ten players (CNT and Asian new players in general).
So for me in "big" tennis an upset is when a player from top 10 looses to someone with much lover ranking, say 30-40 ... so Kato's 25 almost applies here ... but of course h2h results would rather show that it's not that big of an upset, if at all ...
But it's academic ... I'll go the either way ... ; )
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