Caronavirus & Tokyo 2020

Janard said:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3J6zm6zgah0&t=395s

Food for thought. Either way, it's unsurprising tbh.

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Baal said:

All countries are suspected countries now. Certainly the US and Europe. An implication of aerosol transmission is the whole 6 foot distance thing is probably not enough. SARS transmitted as an aerosol.

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Infectious disease expert Professor Yuen Kwok-yung said on Saturday that said one possibility for transmission from the couple was through faecal matter from the 32nd-floor flat under the so-called “wake effect” of the wind.

Yuen said the particles could have travelled through a vent pipe, which has an opening on the roof of the block, and become aerosolised, whereupon the wind might have carried the aerosols back to homes near the top floors, including the 34th.

While officials have said the top floors should be safe as long as the vent pipe openings were at least two to three metres from the roof, Yuen said the highest floors could be contaminated by particles emitting from the pipe, outside the No 13 flats, after officials found it was shorter than usual.

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Baal said:

Since I've been mostly saying depressing things, like the fact that it's going to get worse before it gets better, in fact it WILL get better.

I recently read that there has been no new outbreak of SARS-CoV-1 since it emerged in China in the 2000s. It's as if it ran its course and disappeared. Maybe this one will do that too, later.

Of course it would help if they canceled the Olympics.

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Baal said:

Here is one thing I am doing for myself. Bear in mind there no clinical evidence for this from SARS or Covid-19 (but there is for some other viruses). The RNA replicase enzyme that coronaviruses use to hijack our cells is inhibited by Zn2+. So I am taking a zinc supplement. I am skeptical that I can elevate intracellular zinc very much that way, but for sure I dont want to be deficient. Anything to help my body fight if it turns out I get exposed. I am also supplementing with Vitamin D at 1000 IU per day. Won't hurt, little bits of data here and there that it might help, most of it not very high quality, but again, we dont want to be deficient.

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NextLevel said:

America, for good and bad, is a country of lawyers. Everything is now shut down except retail stores and who knows when those will follow suit...

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Brs said:

What's the over/under on when US gets to a nationwide Italy/Spain-style lockdown? 4/1?

Using the maths discussed earlier in this thread 50*3,500 = 175k cases *2*2*2*2*2 (15 days) = 5.6million. If it takes a week to show symptoms then only *2*2*2 or 1.4 million will be symptomatic by 4/1. And only about 90,000 severely ill.
IDK if that will be enough to go all Italy/Spain here. We may wait another week or *2*2. That would get us to 5+million symptomatic, 300-350k seriously ill, and 22 million total infected. It would also be my father's 93rd birthday were he alive, so my bet is on 4/8 as lockdown day.

All hypothetical of course, it could be contained by all the state and local action. Guess we will see.

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langel said:

https://roselawgroupreporter.com/20...ldman-sachs-economic-analysis-of-coronavirus/


Thats what the government and non government institutions and big business are preparing for.

UK already relalized that quarantine won't help at all.
All agree now that the only role of the quarantine would be to slow down the virus march in order to keep the health systems functional.

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Baal said:

UK theorizes that quarantine wont help. This is different from knowing.

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zeio said:

Meanwhile, Abe has secured support for Japan to hold a "complete" Tokyo Olympics.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...-leaders-support-complete-games-idUSKBN21401H
https://english.kyodonews.net/news/...er-reiterates-abes-complete-games-pledge.html

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zeio said:

Meanwhile, Abe has secured support for Japan to hold a "complete" Tokyo Olympics.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...-leaders-support-complete-games-idUSKBN21401H
https://english.kyodonews.net/news/...er-reiterates-abes-complete-games-pledge.html

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NextLevel said:

Japan in the summer is not a cold place.

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In view of the pandemic, the ITTF Executive Committee met on Monday 16th March, resulting in the following key outcomes:

1. The ITTF Executive Committee reconfirms that all ITTF events and activities are suspended until the end of April 2020.

2. On Sunday 29th March 2020, the ITTF Executive Committee will meet again to evaluate the situation and to consider if the suspension of all ITTF events and activities needs to be extended or not.

3. The ITTF Executive Committee, together with Ryu Seungmin, Chairman of the Local Organising Committee (LOC) of the Hana Bank 2020 World Team Table Tennis Championships in Busan, Korea Republic, agrees that, given the increasing severity of the crisis worldwide, the provisional dates of 21-28 June 2020 may come too soon and therefore further back-up plans will be made to hold the event towards the end of the year, in the case it is needed to postpone further.

4. The ITTF will consider potential options regarding the qualifying pathway for the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games, given that the qualifying events which had been scheduled for April 2020 will no longer take place as planned. Ideas will be discussed with the Continental Federations, the ITTF Athletes Commission and finally proposed to the International Olympic Committee (IOC) for a joint decision. Options discussed include adding the Continental Events to the World Singles Qualification Event or another event closer to the Olympic Games, or using the World Ranking at a date to be decided. The ITTF is in close contact with the IOC on this matter and, similarly, the ITTF is in touch with the International Paralympic Committee (IPC) and the Athletes Commission in all related to the Paralympic Games pathway.

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ZeroTT said:

We don't even know that Covid-19 will be slowed down by warm weather.
Here in Europe It's spreading like wildfire in Italy (28k)and Spain (10k).

In the weeks the virus was spreading it was 20+ degrees celsius in both Italy and Spain.

So I wouldn't bet on better weather stopping this.

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https://time.com/5790880/coronavirus-warm-weather-summer/

Will Warmer Weather Stop the Spread of the Coronavirus? Don't Count on It, Say Experts

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/will-coronavirus-go-away-with-warm-weather/

The CDC's website says it is not yet known whether weather and temperature will impact the spread of coronavirus. It also points out that even though you are statistically less likely to get sick with cold or flu viruses during the summer, it's still possible to come down with them any time of the year.


"Some other viruses, like the common cold and flu, spread more during cold weather months but that does not mean it is impossible to become sick with these viruses during other months," the CDC says. "At this time, it is not known whether the spread of COVID-19 [the illness caused by the coronavirus] will decrease when weather becomes warmer.

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