Caronavirus & Tokyo 2020

Free bird said:

Studies on how coronaviruses infect host cells are getting more and more detailed. As scientists are beginning to understand in atomic level how the spike protein binds to the host receptors, a key step that initiates the whole infection process, I’m more convinced that heat will be a big disrupter to initial human2human transmission. I pray for an early, scorching summer.

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Free bird said:

Scientists are using High resolution Cryo Electron Microscopy to depict the spike protein structures in near atomic level focusing on two functional subunits S1 and S2. S1 is involved in binding to host receptor whereas S2 in fusing virus membrane with host membrane. A concerted sequence of conformational transitions is required for virus RNA be injected into host cell. The longer a coronavirus will remain active with the right S protein conformations outside of a human body, the higher transmission rate. High ambient temperature in summer is expected to drastically shorten that time.


In SARS era, such high resolution Cryo-EM was not available.

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If true, this is really amazingly great news.

So I do really hope this is how things will unfold. It feels almost too good to be true. But darn, I hope it gets warm fast and this is how it is.

The only issue with "summer will kill it", is the fact that the virus is all over the world, and even in some northern hemisphere countries, the temperature will not rise to high enough levels. What happens next September/October?
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/685d0ace521648f8a5beeeee1b9125cd

darucla said:

The only issue with "summer will kill it", is the fact that the virus is all over the world, and even in some northern hemisphere countries, the temperature will not rise to high enough levels. What happens next September/October?
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/685d0ace521648f8a5beeeee1b9125cd

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It is true that, like the 1918-1920 Influenza Pandemic, it could go away in the summer and come back in the fall. So, we will still need to be prepared for that. But, it will be nice if things do go back to normal and we are given more time.

The biotech companies will still need to work on treatments and vaccines. The healthcare system will still have to prepare for what could unfold in the fall. But, it would be nice to have some extra time to get ready.

darucla said:

The only issue with "summer will kill it", is the fact that the virus is all over the world, and even in some northern hemisphere countries, the temperature will not rise to high enough levels. What happens next September/October?
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/685d0ace521648f8a5beeeee1b9125cd

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Yeah but people travel all over the world and not every country is affected the same way.

And if next September or October is the next wave. I have already pointed out that if people have issues with diabetes, going low carb is an option to improve your health. I know people made it sound here like I was blaming the sick people (of course I was also prediabetic myself at some point out of ignorance so I don't think anyone can be blamed for not knowing that s lot of the government dietary guidelines have zero basis in scientific research especially the requirement to eat lots of carbs including whole grains). Of course, other doctors like Aseem Malhotra in the UK are bringing up the same thing. Virta health have collected enough serious research on low carb intervention for type 2 diabetes for people to realize it is not a fad.

NextLevel said:

Yeah but people travel all over the world and not every country is affected the same way.

And if next September or October is the next wave. I have already pointed out that if people have issues with diabetes, going low carb is an option to improve your health. I know people made it sound here like I was blaming the sick people (of course I was also prediabetic myself at some point out of ignorance so I don't think anyone can be blamed for not knowing that s lot of the government dietary guidelines have zero basis in scientific research especially the requirement to eat lots of carbs including whole grains). Of course, other doctors like Aseem Malhotra in the UK are bringing up the same thing. Virta health have collected enough serious research on low carb intervention for type 2 diabetes for people to realize it is not a fad.

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I don't think I was talking about diabetes? Although I am diabetic, but hey. My point is that when next autumn arrives in the northern hemisphere, if the virus is still around anywhere in the world, we need to avoid going through the whole cycle again. Previous "pandemics" in this century have not been so widespread. Currently nearly 200 of the 226 countries in the world have cases. A true exit strategy needs the virus to be wiped out, or a cure or vaccine to be developed that will destroy it over time.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/dip...d-linger-europe-two-years-chinese-expert-says
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/dip...d-linger-europe-two-years-chinese-expert-says
Quite gloomy prospects. No Olympics can be expected till the next summer of 2021.

I find this interesting.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0VEcyEhrtgI
It makes you wonder why the Chinese death rates are so low.

I was watching a YouTube video about SIR epidemic simulation. One of the videos ignored the Chinese data.
BTW, the videos are a good start but don't take into account the time delays. In control theory the time delays are called "dead time". No joke.

check out intermittent fasting 16/8: "...the eight-hours group had dramatically lower insulin levels and significantly improved insulin sensitivity, as well as significantly lower blood pressure. The best part? The eight-hours group also had significantly decreased appetite. They weren’t starving."
https://www.health.harvard.edu/blog/intermittent-fasting-surprising-update-2018062914156

UpSideDownCarl said:

If true, this is really amazingly great news.

So I do really hope this is how things will unfold. It feels almost too good to be true. But darn, I hope it gets warm fast and this is how it is.

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Knowing the structure of the SAR2-Cov2/ACE2 interaction is a nice advance. But it doesn't indicate how thermostable the virus will be outside of a human host. In fact, it has nothing to do with that at all. Protein structures are great to have. We were actually in a collaboration to do some Cryo-EM with some colleagues (on completely different proteins) and will be back at it once we are allowed to work again.

In this case the study that was mentioned may make it easier at some point way down the road to design molecules that prevent the interaction (which you need to have to infect cells) and could guide some strategies for vaccine development (which is definitely not my area). But it is completely mute as to what will happen in the next months as it gets hot in the northern hemisphere. We still don't know.

Again a lot of virologists who actually study the dynamics of infectious disease communication argue that the decline of SARS in summer had more to do with people than it did with the virus, and it coincided with a massive public health effort in China to prevent spread. In the article below one of the really big names in this field busts some myths about summer and coronaviruses. Note he is not ruling it out, he does warn that by itself heat won't probably save us. I'm still hoping it get blazing hot here real soon, though, I'm not gonna lie. It will be 80s this week.

Read here:

https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/will-covid-19-go-away-on-its-own-in-warmer-weather/

brokenball said:

I find this interesting.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0VEcyEhrtgI
It makes you wonder why the Chinese death rates are so low.

I was watching a YouTube video about SIR epidemic simulation. One of the videos ignored the Chinese data.
BTW, the videos are a good start but don't take into account the time delays. In control theory the time delays are called "dead time". No joke.

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What I find interesting is how countries ranked high up in the global health security index are amongst the worst performing nations against covid19.

Janard said:

What I find interesting is how countries ranked high up in the global health security index are amongst the worst performing nations against covid19.

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They have enough resources to measure cases that are serious and record them but not enough to save everyone. In some poorer countries, the awareness isn't there to make the measurements. The low case load in Africa wo far might mean something but I won't speculate anymore because I really don't know.

Janard said:

What I find interesting is how countries ranked high up in the global health security index are amongst the worst performing nations against covid19.

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今天的我打倒昨天的我

GOP Lieutenant Governor of Texas Dan Patrick and a noted Trump supporter said old people should be willing to put their lives st risk if it means we can immediately reboot the economy.

Trump's son in law is arguing that the country should go back to business as usual. Trump, who ignored the crisis when their was a chance to get a step ahead of it, is already bored with it and I predict he will attempt to fire Dr. Anthony Fauci any day now. Trump is reported to be "furious" that Fauci has repeatedly corrected misstatements, non-sequiturs and frank lies Trump has asserted just in the last few days. Attacks on Fauci have already been percolating through Fox News.

Meanwhile hospitals in my city, which has the largest concentrated hospital complex in the world, with 180,000 employees, is short on N95 masks and protective gear.

there was a 15mn talk about the (possible and likely) postponement of the Olympics and what it means for the JNT in TT.

No conclusions but the journalists were wondering if they needed to change the lineup if the olympics were held in 2021. Some said it would be unfair for the athletes being selected but realistically, Mizutani and Ishikawa are getting old and they are some very promising youngsters like Uda and Hayata. Sayaka Hirano said she would be devastated if she had to go through all the process again after being selected but agreed that as a player in her later years, 1 year made a lot of difference to her form and that the hierarchy would be very different 1 year from now.

Unsuspecting seniors are already suffering from the consequences of Trump's words. I feel bad for Fauci.

Arizona Man Dies After Taking Chemical in Coronavirus Treatment Touted by President Trump
https://time.com/5808688/chloroquine-phosphate-coronavirus-death/

zeio said:

Unsuspecting seniors are already suffering from the consequences of Trump's words. I feel bad for Fauci.

Arizona Man Dies After Taking Chemical in Coronavirus Treatment Touted by President Trump
https://time.com/5808688/chloroquine-phosphate-coronavirus-death/

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Give me a break. Even in Nigeria people started self dosing chloroquine stupidly and at least they were taking real pills not stuff to be put in fish tanks. You can't account for every stupid thing people will do because of what someone said.

Baal said:

GOP Lieutenant Governor of Texas Dan Patrick and a noted Trump supporter said old people should be willing to put their lives st risk if it means we can immediately reboot the economy.

Trump's son in law is arguing that the country should go back to business as usual. Trump, who ignored the crisis when their was a chance to get a step ahead of it, is already bored with it and I predict he will attempt to fire Dr. Anthony Fauci any day now. Trump is reported to be "furious" that Fauci has repeatedly corrected misstatements, non-sequiturs and frank lies Trump has asserted just in the last few days. Attacks on Fauci have already been percolating through Fox News.

Meanwhile hospitals in my city, which has the largest concentrated hospital complex in the world, with 180,000 employees, is short on N95 masks and protective gear.

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A disease poses great risk to the most powerful voting demographic in the US and the guy wants to sacrifice them. He has balls even if his values are moronic.

NextLevel said:

Give me a break. Even in Nigeria people started self dosing chloroquine stupidly and at least they were taking real pills not stuff to be put in fish tanks. You can't account for every stupid thing people will do because of what someone said.

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Trump isn't "someone". He's the president of the united states. His words and actions have consequences far beyond the random madness of a street corner drunk (even if the value of those words and actions are comparable). He could use his immense platform to deliver clear, safe advice. Instead...well. He talks about drugs, gets basic facts wrong, and people die. It's sad that anyone gives any credence to the nonsense he comes out with, but there is plenty of blame to go around here.

If nothing else, the pandemic will hopefully serve as a lesson to enough of the public. Vote for people you want in charge during a crisis, even if one isn't occurring at the time. A harsh, terrible lesson though.

AndySmith said:

Trump isn't "someone". He's the president of the united states. His words and actions have consequences far beyond the random madness of a street corner drunk (even if the value of those words and actions are comparable). He could use his immense platform to deliver clear, safe advice. Instead...well. He talks about drugs, gets basic facts wrong, and people die. It's sad that anyone gives any credence to the nonsense he comes out with, but there is plenty of blame to go around here.

If nothing else, the pandemic will hopefully serve as a lesson to enough of the public. Vote for people you want in charge during a crisis, even if one isn't occurring at the time. A harsh, terrible lesson though.

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Andy Smith

The people who died didn't even take chloroquine drugs. They took chloroquine phosphate meant for fish tanks. We need to draw the line somewhere at personal responsibility. I don't think people over 70 years old should be permitted to be Presidents and I agree that Trump is an idiot, but I think blaming even stupid individual actions on Trump leads to a loss of wisdom.

Olympic games are postponed for one year..... So now you can close this thread.