Caronavirus & Tokyo 2020

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Anyone who does not take this seriously, should look at the situation in Italy and in Europe in general.
2-3 weeks ago the Health Authorities in Denmark claimed that chances for the virus to spread in the country was minimal. Now the country is basically shutting down trying to prevent the virus from spreading.
 
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If you aren't a smoker or diabetic or old aged, then maybe you really shouldn't be going to the Olympics or moving around people who do.

Which is exactly why we can't have massive events that lessen the degrees of separation now. Like the Olympics.

The key question becomes, how many handshakes away? Mass events with people from all over mingling reduce the (timeboxed) degree of separation between arbitrary individuals. My Erdös number is three, and I'm two handshakes away from Adolf Hitler, and one handshake away from Muhammed Ali, two from JFK. Some of their pathogens might still be with me, and I'm one or two handshakes away from nearly all 2016 Olympians. The discussion we should be having would be about four weeks of global quarantine, not whether or not we can afford to all jump in bed together next saturday night. I know, that's a hyperbole, but you get the direction.
 
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Brs

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I have been reading that in basically uncontrolled conditions (UK, Germany, USAx10) up to 80% will get Covid. 330 million peeps * .8 = 264 million infected peeps. If death rate is .001, 264,000 american dead peeps.

Think about that for a minute. If covid follows that trajectory somebody you know will die from it.

I'm not doing anything special, or in a panic. Those are just the facts as I understand them. I went to the club last night. I know I'll leave when it's my time to go, til then I'll carry on with what I know.
 
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Italy are reporting about an increase of patients between 40-45 with no chronic diseases needing treatment in hospitals because of coronavirus..
 
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I have been reading that in basically uncontrolled conditions (UK, Germany, USAx10) up to 80% will get Covid.

The current guestimates about penetration I've seen range from 40% to near 80%. But it's not merely that percentage, but the span of time in which infections occur.

Right now, the number of infections in countries in the EU closely follow an exponential growth curve, with roughly a doubling every three days. At that rate, the NL infections grow from the ±600 current known cases to over 600.000 (a thousand-fold increase) in 30 days.

If we manage to limit exposure (lower the chance of a non-infected individual to encounter an infected one) and limit the infection risk (by improved personal sanitary measures) that growth may be much less steep the number of cases drops, well, exponentially. With a daily growth of 1.1 instead of 1.25, there will be ±10.000 cases instead of 600.000 in one month.

And that's, in my understanding, the goal of reducing exposure. Large hubs cutting the communication lines between large groups of people short wreac havoc on that attempt.
 
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https://www.hk01.com/分析評論/447147/新冠肺炎-歐洲為何未能阻止疫情加速擴散
歐盟內部的協調的不足

疫情正在考驗歐盟內部的協調能力,這也讓歐盟成員國之間矛盾更加突出。意大利作為疫情的重災區,近期不斷對歐盟「抱怨」支持不足。意大利駐歐盟大使馬薩里(Maurizio Sarri)稱,歐盟成員國之間缺乏團結,意大利求助歐盟竟「無一國回應」。世衛組織(WHO)衛生緊急項目執行主任瑞安(Michael Ryan)也強調希望看到歐盟內部能夠在支持意大利時表現出團結性。
Inadequate coordination within the EU

The pandemic is testing the EU's ability to coordinate, which has also made the contradictions between EU member states more prominent. Italy, as the worst-hit area of the pandemic, has recently continually “complained” to the EU for its lack of support. Ambassador of Italy to the EU, Maurizio Sarri, said that there was a lack of solidarity among EU member states, and that Italy had turned to the EU with "no response from any country." Michael Ryan, Executive Director of the WHO's Health Emergency Program, also emphasized the desire to see solidarity within the European Union in supporting Italy.

Wat8.jpg


https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...o-help-italy-battle-coronavirus-idUSKBN2101IM
China sends medical supplies, experts to help Italy battle coronavirus
...
A team of nine Chinese medical staff arrived late on Thursday with some 30 tonnes of equipment on a flight organized by the Chinese Red Cross.
...
In contrast to China, Italy’s partners in the European Union earlier this month refused Rome’s requests for help with medical supplies as they looked to stockpile face masks and other equipment to help their own citizens.
 
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I have been reading that in basically uncontrolled conditions (UK, Germany, USAx10) up to 80% will get Covid. 330 million peeps * .8 = 264 million infected peeps. If death rate is .001, 264,000 american dead peeps.

Think about that for a minute. If covid follows that trajectory somebody you know will die from it.

I'm not doing anything special, or in a panic. Those are just the facts as I understand them. I went to the club last night. I know I'll leave when it's my time to go, til then I'll carry on with what I know.

In controlled conditions what is the projection?
 
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Which is exactly why we can't have massive events that lessen the degrees of separation now. Like the Olympics.

The key question becomes, how many handshakes away? Mass events with people from all over mingling reduce the (timeboxed) degree of separation between arbitrary individuals. My Erdös number is three, and I'm two handshakes away from Adolf Hitler, and one handshake away from Muhammed Ali, two from JFK. Some of their pathogens might still be with me, and I'm one or two handshakes away from nearly all 2016 Olympians. The discussion we should be having would be about four weeks of global quarantine, not whether or not we can afford to all jump in bed together next saturday night. I know, that's a hyperbole, but you get the direction.

The Olympics is months away. If it isn't contained by then it will never be.
 
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The Olympics is months away. If it isn't contained by then it will never be.

Influenza is also not contained. We manage to cope with it, albeit with a serious casualty rate. New strains appear, and take their toll on (mostly) the weak. The rest lives on and handles it, attuning their immune systems as they go along.

We will need to whether the first wave, should try to prevent it from rising to a tsunami by stretching its spread over a longer span of time, and in due time the survivor's immune systems will have adapted. There already are casualties, and many more will follow. All we can do is prevent a total collapse of health systems (first) and the entire of society (second). And we do this by limiting exposure and minimising contagion.

For which reason we should first and foremost stop doing utterly stupid things like flying in thousands of people from all over, packing them closely together for a few weeks, and then flying them back all over the globe.
 
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The Olympics is months away. If it isn't contained by then it will never be.

It's very hard to predict. Some of the basic models our government has displayed have our peak (peaks will be different in each country) as being as far as 10-12 weeks away, if the controlling measures push the peak back. You push the peak back to take pressure off health services, but then you're pushing it into the summer months, and extending its duration as well. It's hard to make any decisions about any summer events based on all of the different factors swirling around. I'm glad I don't have to make major decisions about it - must be incredibly difficult.

Then there is some debate as to if the virus would reappear later this year. And it does look like it will be a regular part of flu season from now on (but we should have some immunity, vaccines and antivirals by next year at least). It's too new, too many assumptions. I really hope the Olympics goes ahead of course, but if some countries are still peaking then it would be really tough to justify it IMO.
 
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Don't know how your guys feel about the NYT as a reliable source of news, but...

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/us/coronavirus-deaths-estimate.html

Some really wide ranges of estimated infections and deaths there. The best case scenarios rely on sensible behavioural change in the public though, and I have to be totally honest here - some people are just insanely stupid and cling to the notion that it's just flu, or a cold, or some sort of political conspiracy. These people are real weapons-grade idiots.
 
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one problem i can see with a lot of TT venues, at least here, is the lack of aeration

they don't open the windows (if there are any) very often, and turn on the air conditioning

I think its not very good for hygiene and favours the virus. or am i wrong ?

The virus isn't airbourne, has to be passed via droplets, so that helps. It's more about coughs and sneezes. It can live on surfaces for quite some time, hence the focus on hand washing, and not touching your face. So the aeration might not be too bad a factor?
 

Brs

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In controlled conditions what is the projection?

South Korea is the poster nation for controlled. 51 million k-peeps, 8k cases (and they test a lot). Let's say they have 25k total cases this year (which seems high but makes the maths easy). Real .0005 incidence versus hypothetical .80.

Reality-based governments perform better vs reality-based disasters, which is most of them.
 
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And Denmark just closed it's border for all foreigners(tourists). Mostly only foreigners working here will be allowed in. All Danish citizens travelling around the world are recommended to return ASAP.

The Government were a bit slow to react some weeks ago, but are now taking drastic measures! Schools closed, all workers working for the state sent home unless they have critical functions, all sporting and leisure activities are cancelled, all cultural arrangements cancelled.

Unreal, but necessary
 
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This website claims to get its numbers from the CDC and WHO and some other source I hadn't heard of
https://ncov2019.live/data

Notice the death/(death+recovered) ratio.

Nothing can stop this virus now. It can be slowed down. I am hoping that the spread is slowed down enough till I can get a vaccine.
https://www.vox.com/2020/3/10/21171...rantine-cancellation?utm_source=pocket-newtab

You are in the area of the USA that has been, at this point, hardest hit by COVID-19. I do hope you are able to stay safe.
 
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