Caronavirus & Tokyo 2020

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This is bull. When you say something is more serious than the flu, you have to have an objective basis in fact. This is not more serious than the flu. People are dying does precisely the same reasons. It is only uncalled for in the sense that you do not agree. This is not more serious than the flu. The main issue is that people don't have immunity shots for this, but some of this goes back to the crappy lifestyle and diets that we have been advocating to people that lead to their developing high blood pressure and diabetes and makes them unable to fight diseases.

If tropical wants to state that this is more dangerous than the flu that is his prerogative. If he wants to say that people who disagree are speaking bull, then you have to stop being sensitive when he is disagreed with in the language he uses.

NL, this is just nonsense. It's much more serious than the flu. There is broad, expert consensus on that. If you want to go in a different direction to the vast majority of experts, you can't expect to be taken seriously without overwhelming evidence. And this isn't an issue with two valid opinions on either side - treating it in the same way as the flu, with the same emphasis on prevention and control, is simply dangerous and irresponsible.

If this is the prevailing attitude in the US, then you're in for a really rough time.
 
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I strongly advise people to ignore anything NL writes about health or disease. NL is quite a decent person but what he is writing about this is mind boggling. I shouldnt have to say it because it is obvious that death rates are an order of magnitude higher than flu, and EVERY credible public health expert in the world is pointing this out.

But here is another thing. Flu didn't just go away. This new disease is on top of whatever flu is currently driving morbidity and mortality..

So, if the US ends up like Italy, and someone acquires the worst flu (or sepsis, or other conditions requiring an ICU), they will be more likely to die if ICUs are overburdened. We know this because that is the situation in Italy. Tough choices are being made about who lives and who dies.

Also, what I wrote about how ICUs manage patients with ARDS, be it from Covid-19, influenza, or sepsis, etc. is absolutely true, including what tidal pressures to use, and monitoring needed to make sure that positive pressure ventilation doesnt make things worse (it can), placing patients on their stomachs etc.

Listen to NL about how to hit a backhand instead.

One last thing. I can't do anything about this here but if somebody makes the claim that Covid-19 is no more serious than flu over at MyTT, they will be banned for awhile because at this point, based on what is KNOWN, it is trolling.
 
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NL, this is just nonsense. It's much more serious than the flu. There is broad, expert consensus on that. If you want to go in a different direction to the vast majority of experts, you can't expect to be taken seriously without overwhelming evidence. And this isn't an issue with two valid opinions on either side - treating it in the same way as the flu, with the same emphasis on prevention and control, is simply dangerous and irresponsible.

If this is the prevailing attitude in the US, then you're in for a really rough time.

I never told people who didn't agree with me to "F*ck themselves". Again, if you can't see that being rude is an issue that runs both ways, then you are just being nice to those who you agree with.

The causal mechanisms will ultimately determine which is more dangerous. Statistics are what they are.

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/heal...erplay-why-coronavirus-different-flu-n1156801
 
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I never told people who didn't agree with me to "F*ck themselves". Again, if you can't see that being rude is an issue that runs both ways, then you are just being nice to those who you agree with.

The causal mechanisms will ultimately determine which is more dangerous. Statistics are what they are.

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/heal...erplay-why-coronavirus-different-flu-n1156801

People are scared mate, sometimes this comes out in bursts. I think we should all try to give a little more slack than usual, if possible.

And sure, when the crisis is over there will be plenty of time to analyse the stats and understand the mechanisms. But the potential dangers are severe right now, and waiting for a crystal clear understanding of an evolving situation is very risky. The modelling being used right now paints a bleak picture. All the experts could be wrong, but it's a very hard sell IMO, and makes it tough to change the public's behaviour to the degree needed.
 
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I strongly advise people to ignore anything NL writes about health or disease. NL is quite a decent person but what he is writing about this is mind boggling. I shouldnt have to say it because it is obvious that death rates are an order of magnitude higher than flu, and EVERY credible public health expert in the world is pointing this out.

But here is another thing. Flu didn't just go away. This new disease is on top of whatever flu is currently driving morbidity and mortality..

So, if the US ends up like Italy, and someone acquires the worst flu (or sepsis, or other conditions requiring an ICU), they will be more likely to die if ICUs are overburdened. We know this because that is the situation in Italy. Tough choices are being made about who lives and who dies.

Listen to NL about how to hit a backhand instead.

One last thing. I can't do anything about this here but if somebody makes the claim that Covid-19 is no more serious than flu over at MyTT, they will be banned for awhile because at this point, based on what is KNOWN, it is trolling.


The question is *why*. I don't dispute the death rates are higher. If that is what you mean by more dangerous, then sure. Causal mechanisms. People die from all kinds of diseases. If most of the people dying right now are people with co-morbidities, especially people with high blood pressure and diabetes, it says something. If kids are having the disease but not showing symptoms, but adults are having the disease and are, what does that mean? HIV has almost become a footnote because treatments exist now that didn't exist before. Again, causal mechanisms.
 
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Nextlevel
I know you of old
you need to be more self critical and more appreciative of the wisdom and knowledge that others bring to the discussion and learn from the humility which Baal shows in his posts which we all admire.
your "never admit defeat, fight on no matter what, attitude" which is admirable when playing a match perhaps
leads you into error in argument where objective truth matters.
In this case the facts in dispute relate to life and death issues which are above and beyond table tennis issues
The best posters are objective rather than competitive
 
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Brs

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I don't mind being rude or people being rude to me. Where the comparison to flu breaks down, imo, is that everyone doesn't get flu all at once. If health systems get flooded with CV cases, or a big percentage of frontline Drs and nurses fall ill, many people will die from other causes for lack of treatment, ventilators, hospital beds, etc. That could be a large number. As NL says, they have co-morbidities, or they were severely injured in an accident, or had a serious illness, or a critical event like heart attack or stroke at the wrong time.

I accept the complete futility of asking Americans in our entirety to sacrifice anything for other people. It will not happen. But I'm still unhappy that my sister is two weeks into a six week run of chemoradiation right now. It's going really well. But if she gets the virus she will die. If doesn't get it but can't complete her treatment on schedule because of it she will die. Both of those are high-probability occurrences. Does she have a co-morbidity, to use the bloodless term apparently favored here. Hell yes. But blaming the sick people strikes me as unfair, cruel, and stupid. In other words, it's as American as apple pie.

In the immortal words of Country Joe and the Fish, "Ain't no time to wonder why, Whoopee! We're all gonna die."
 
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Why? That is a question for later, and it will come (although research labs like mine are shut down for awhile).

Right now the question is what to do when we dont yet have vaccines, rigorously tested therapies, herd immunity, and at a time when the health system could be overwhelmed. And as someone else noted, there is the social psychology part which admittedly comp,dictates things more.

Here is one thing for sure though. Part of how sick you get depends on the amount of viral particles in the initial exposure, or if there are multiple exposures in a short period of time. Already there is evidence that healthcare workers are getting a more severe illness on average, even if they are not in an otherwise at-risk group. Later if anybody really cares I can go into the biology of that, it is related to how the immune response causes inflammation of alveoli after the infection occurs. In the US there are complaints from doctors and nurses in Washington and Oregon that personal protective gear they can get is inadequate and in short supply.

So again, do not take this lightly and dont do things that could cause you to spread this. (Not to mention, protect yourself).
 
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As of Saturday staff at Johns Hopkins oncology were not wearing masks when treating/meeting patients. It is not surprising that many of them will be very ill very soon.
 
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By the way, here is an interesting tidbit. Spain is locked down. A lot of professional road cyclists live in Girona Spain. They are not allowed to train and were told to stay at home. Now riding a bike outdoors isn't going to any sort of risk for catching or spreading CV. So why?

Spanish authorities tell them if riders crash and need some emergency services they would be taking capacity needed to deal with Covid patients.

I have no idea if this is a rational policy or not. But that is the situation there. Of course all of the important upcoming races have been canceled.
 
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Nextlevel
I know you of old
you need to be more self critical and more appreciative of the wisdom and knowledge that others bring to the discussion and learn from the humility which Baal shows in his posts which we all admire.
your "never admit defeat, fight on no matter what, attitude" which is admirable when playing a match perhaps
leads you into error in argument where objective truth matters.
In this case the facts in dispute relate to life and death issues which are above and beyond table tennis issues
The best posters are objective rather than competitive

I know you of old too. Everyone is right qns wrong about things, including you and me. Life teaches you humility and perspective and unfortunately people who don't know what someone is driven by often fail to appreciate where he is coming from.

I have been diagnosed with autoimmune issues for the last 10 years. Was hypertensive and was on angiotensin inhibitors as a result for a significant period (2 to 3 years). I should be one of the persons begging people to stay away from me given susceptibility to the disease. Give that some thought. Maybe I am just completely crazy. Maybe I just want to win arguments like you say.
 
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The question is *why*. I don't dispute the death rates are higher. If that is what you mean by more dangerous, then sure. Causal mechanisms. People die from all kinds of diseases. If most of the people dying right now are people with co-morbidities, especially people with high blood pressure and diabetes, it says something. If kids are having the disease but not showing symptoms, but adults are having the disease and are, what does that mean? HIV has almost become a footnote because treatments exist now that didn't exist before. Again, causal mechanisms.

Yeah. In the long run, this may also become a footnote. Hopefully, at some point, there will be treatments.

Now, in reading what NL is talking about, I just heard fear and frustration when Tropical wrote: "F..k them all." So I did not take it personally. But it seems NL probably did. So, I won't blame him for his response if it had more to do with hearing that as directed at him and others who are not seeing the impact of this virus how I now am. So, as always, there is a point in there. There is no need to attack people who have differing understandings of the situation.

But as far as I understand things, for now, part of the issue with this current coronavirus is that it is so contagious that, right now, the potential is for our healthcare system and our hospitals to be so flooded with cases, so overwhelmed, that people who normally would not die of other things that, under more normal circumstances would be very treatable, will end up not getting treatment and/or dying. A huge part of the issue is the collateral damage. Not just the the direct impact of the virus on each separate person.

And if you do the math of someone with this coronavirus going into the hospital and getting the health care practitioners sick, and without knowing, them giving COVID-19 to patients who were in the hospital for something else.....and add that out exponentially.....well, then some of the actual issue seems to be the healthcare system getting overwhelmed while there is still, as of now, no treatment for the condition and no way to stop the spread without isolation.

When there are effective treatments, and when most of the world has had this once already, it will not be such a big deal. It is fine to compare this to the flu. But perhaps it falls more into the category of the 1918-1920 influenza epidemic, even if this is not as deadly as that was. And the reason is, it is spreading like wildfire and there is no known treatment as of now; those were also the circumstances of the influenza epidemic of 1918-1920. Once there were effective treatments, it still was bad, but not overwhelming. When there is a treatment for the COVID-19 coronavirus, then, this will be something we will just live with and it will become part of the fabric of life. So, hopefully, that is the long view.

By the way, I am going to try and paraphrase something I heard one medical expert say: "In January" (I think he said January) "I said that most of the cases of COVID-19 were classified as mild. And it seems that gave people the idea that it was like having a cold. I want to apologize for what seemed to be misleading information. I want to explain that a little better. That was the information out of China at the time. But the reason that is misleading is how they were categorizing mild and severe. They were categorizing cases as severe only when the person needed to be on a ventilator. All other cases were categorized as mild, which included lots of people who had pneumonia and were very sick."

That is my memory of basically what he said.

Understanding that, for me, helped me realize that we still don't really understand what we are dealing with. And that a lack of ability to treat patients with the virus is a huge factor in the current impact. Again, I do hope that some day this will be another footnote and that treatments will be effective. But for now, one of the biggest issue is slowing down the spread of the virus so that hospitals are not completely overwhelmed as it spreads.

My thoughts do go out to all those in the healthcare system who are on the front lines of dealing with this pandemic.
 
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I don't mind being rude or people being rude to me. Where the comparison to flu breaks down, imo, is that everyone doesn't get flu all at once. If health systems get flooded with CV cases, or a big percentage of frontline Drs and nurses fall ill, many people will die from other causes for lack of treatment, ventilators, hospital beds, etc. That could be a large number. As NL says, they have co-morbidities, or they were severely injured in an accident, or had a serious illness, or a critical event like heart attack or stroke at the wrong time.

I accept the complete futility of asking Americans in our entirety to sacrifice anything for other people. It will not happen. But I'm still unhappy that my sister is two weeks into a six week run of chemoradiation right now. It's going really well. But if she gets the virus she will die. If doesn't get it but can't complete her treatment on schedule because of it she will die. Both of those are high-probability occurrences. Does she have a co-morbidity, to use the bloodless term apparently favored here. Hell yes. But blaming the sick people strikes me as unfair, cruel, and stupid. In other words, it's as American as apple pie.

In the immortal words of Country Joe and the Fish, "Ain't no time to wonder why, Whoopee! We're all gonna die."

Blaming sick people is always cruel. Blaming the system that led them there is not. And many of the issues people have is largely a result of miseducation by the world on what is health to eat. But ultimately life is not fair. I feel like an idiot these days for some of the results of my idiotic health choices over the years but take comfort in the fact that there are still doctors telling me to do the things that I stopped doing to get better.

Good luck to your sister. I lost mine last year to cancer. Nothing that I said could convince her that meat didn't hurt the pancreas or that the veggies and fruits juices she was eating had sugars that fueled cancer. I don't know whether any of my advice would have made a difference and I don't pretend to be omniscient. Life is complicated. Maybe in a few years I will succumb to the same genetic predispositions. But what is required is an honest conversation about how many comorbidities this virus thrives on are driven by insulin resistance. It may not help everyone but it may help some people.
 
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i wish you well and better health in the future.
i posted because this thread is not just another thread to win.
we are lucky to have good information and advice from the likes of Baal and Andy Smith, but its being obscured by your posting. why not create another thread if you have to indulge yourself
 
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Here is one thing for sure though. Part of how sick you get depends on the amount of viral particles in the initial exposure, or if there are multiple exposures in a short period of time. Already there is evidence that healthcare workers are getting a more severe illness on average, even if they are not in an otherwise at-risk group. Later if anybody really cares I can go into the biology of that, it is related to how the immune response causes inflammation of alveoli after the infection occurs. In the US there are complaints from doctors and nurses in Washington and Oregon that personal protective gear they can get is inadequate and in short supply.

I would say, this is big and well worth understanding.
 
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By the way, here is an interesting tidbit. Spain is locked down. A lot of professional road cyclists live in Girona Spain. They are not allowed to train and were told to stay at home. Now riding a bike outdoors isn't going to any sort of risk for catching or spreading CV. So why?

Spanish authorities tell them if riders crash and need some emergency services they would be taking capacity needed to deal with Covid patients.

I have no idea if this is a rational policy or not. But that is the situation there. Of course all of the important upcoming races have been canceled.

Well hopefully you have stopped cycling then. You shouldn't be taking up resources that can go to CoVID treatment.
 
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As of Saturday staff at Johns Hopkins oncology were not wearing masks when treating/meeting patients. It is not surprising that many of them will be very ill very soon.

Facemasks are not effective to prevent anyone from getting Corona virus. The facemasks have effectiveness for those infected to not transmit virus.

Maybe you are talking about the N95 type respirators.
 
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By the way, here is an interesting tidbit. Spain is locked down. A lot of professional road cyclists live in Girona Spain. They are not allowed to train and were told to stay at home. Now riding a bike outdoors isn't going to any sort of risk for catching or spreading CV. So why?

Spanish authorities tell them if riders crash and need some emergency services they would be taking capacity needed to deal with Covid patients.

I have no idea if this is a rational policy or not. But that is the situation there. Of course all of the important upcoming races have been canceled.

Aerosol is one of ways coronavirus can get transmitted, yes? So in heavily infested areas, I’d limit my walk outside even no person is close by.
 
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