Well, again, we don't have enough data.
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
but for example Iran its 61 cases and 12 dead, so much more than 2.5%
You have mentioned some biases that i had, but there are some biases as well in your analysis that I have mentioned already. If people are sick with little symptoms, there is no guarantee they won't get even more sick later. Actually it is known that if you are cured, and get out of the stats, you can fall sick AGAIN, and die more easily the 2nd time.
While you're not so sick, you can also transmit the virus to anyone around you.
also you seem not to be worried for the large majority (around 80%) of sick people with mild or little symptoms. But I can't see these cases as being dismissed in the stats. When you have regular flu, after 3 or 4 days you start to get better, and 1 week you're cured. We are having many many cases where it doesn't get worse (yet) but it doesn't get better as well, so there is absolutely no guarantee and not enough evidence these people won't ever get more sick. Actually there is evidence of the contrary happening. (people who got infected AND got cured THEN get sick again and die)
The QUANTITY of virus absorbed is important also for how severe the damage so if the virus is more widespread, it will become more dangerous, and we KNOW its going to be more widespread.
The death rate is not the same in an environment where the virus is only hitting 0.01% of the population and you receive full treatment as when its hitting 10% of the population and you're in an emergency facility along hundreds or thousands of other ill patients [and getting sicker if you were not so sick] and there is not enough medication for everyone.
At this stage, we only know that the virus is probably more widespread than reported anywhere. because the more we look for it (by testing) the more it is found. The stats are low in Japan because they didn't even test everyone on that ****ing boat , not even the workers before they got out !!! We also know that one person can easily transmit it to hundreds of people before even knowing he is himself sick; How exactly can you prevent that from spreading out if everybody is not self-quarantined ????
Then you believe what you want,
but there are reports and videos of various credibility from China that (non-exhaustive list)
- Police is beating people going out of their homes
- People are barricaded in their home by the police
- Activity from crematoriums as seen from satellite or as inferred by interviews don't match at all the official data.
- Police and Army troops are coming from all China to Wuhan (WTF is going on there ?)
- [tinfoil ?] even heard that workers are so overwhelmed they sometimes burn live bodies along with dead bodies... True or Not gives an idea of how affected mentally people are over there.
I think people are suffering from the "NORMALCY BIAS". Check on wiki to see what it means. but to simplify: being a boiling frog, or a Thanksgiving Turkey.
When you panic and you're wrong, your only downside is to be mocked, you survive and life continues as usual.
If you don't panic and you're wrong, you just die GAME OVER
On the optimistic side, *IF* the Chinese are reporting the true figures from Wuhan, then I HAVE TO AGREE that things are getting under control, the number of new cases is not increasing exponentially anymore. So it seems their strong quarantine policy is working. Thats what it takes to battle the spreading of the virus, but absolutely no other country is taking the stuff seriously enough yet, and everyday counts because of the exponential nature of the virus growth
Now i don't trust the Chinese government at all. and i am not optimistic, but i hope I am wrong