Caronavirus & Tokyo 2020

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Holy crap zeio! That would terrify me! Of course, in the US we are doing the same thing, only it's not policy (as far as anyone knows or has leaked). It is simply incompetence. So to be honest, I am already at an 8.5 on a 1 to 10 feaked out scale.
 

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It spreads really fast in several european countries. In Germany close to 400 cases up to now, more than 100 new cases in the last 24 hours. The good thing at the moment nobody died from it so far.


Only two weeks later: 22.000 infected people and 75 died. It spreads so fast, I did not expect this.

Most likely no Olympics this summer. On a positive side, it gives Harimoto more time and may be Uda is an option if they have to postpone it to 2021 or 2022.
 
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Holy crap zeio! That would terrify me! Of course, in the US we are doing the same thing, only it's not policy (as far as anyone knows or has leaked). It is simply incompetence. So to be honest, I am already at an 8.5 on a 1 to 10 feaked out scale.
You guys gotta read this. On Mar 20, Japanese economist IKEDA Nobuo, has published an article in defense of Johnson's herd immunity proposal. He openly states that Japan is adopting herd immunity. This dude values money above the people.

日本は新型コロナを「ゆるやかに感染」させるとき
大事なのはウイルスの根絶ではなく経済危機の防止だ
2020.3.20(金)
池田 信夫

...

日本政府は集団免疫戦略を採用している

...

「一定の感染を容認する集団免疫戦略は非人道的だ」という批判が多いが、それ以外の道はあるのだろうか。今の自粛や休校をいつまで続けるのか。患者がゼロになるまでか。無期限に封じ込めを続けていると日本経済がボロボロになって、コロナの死者より多くの人が自殺するだろう。

 ヨーロッパの経済学者グループは、イギリス政府の報告書をもとにして「あらゆる経済政策を動員すべきだ」という緊急提言をまとめた。

 彼らが指摘するように、新型コロナの感染は一時的なものだが、その経済的な影響は長く続く可能性があり、感染の封じ込めで感染の山を低くすると、経済危機の谷は深くなる。日本政府はこのトレードオフを認識して、過剰な封じ込めをやめるべきだ。

 いま封じ込めても集団免疫が成り立つまで感染は広がるので、夏になって封じ込めをやめたら、また秋に感染が広がり、今年の冬にピークが来るかもしれない。そうすると医療が崩壊して、多くの死者が出る可能性もある。

 だから問題は患者をゼロにすることではなく、そのピークを病院の能力内に収めることだ。それが日本政府の専門家会議のとっている方針である。ここではコロナウイルスを完全に封じ込めることは想定しておらず、その感染を遅らせて時間を稼ぎ、医療体制を強化することになっている。

img_1af3f9bc6c0d31bf70246a9cd56be2d8168168.jpg


 つまり日本政府は、実質的に集団免疫戦略をとっているのだ。こうして感染をコントロールできたことが「日本の奇蹟」の秘密である。ゆるやかに感染して医療の崩壊を防げば、死者は増えないのだ。

 こうして1年も時間を稼げば、コロナのワクチンや治療薬もできるだろうが、これを日本政府が公然と言うことはできない。イギリスのように批判が安倍首相に集中するからだ。

 しかし公言するかどうかは大した問題ではない。日本はすでにイギリスに先んじてピークカットする合理的な戦略を採用しているので、それにもとづいて自粛を解除し、ゆるやかに感染を拡大するときだ。

 急に解除すると感染が激増するリスクもあるので、まず無意味な一斉休校をやめ、野球などの野外イベントの自粛を解除してはどうだろうか。
As Japan "Gets Infected Gently" by Novel Coronavirus
What Matters Is Not Eradication of Virus but Prevention of Economic Crisis
2020.3.20 (Fri)
IKEDA Nobuo

...

Japanese government adopts collective immunity strategy

...

Many critics say that a collective immunity strategy that allows certain infections is inhuman, but is there any other way? How long will you continue your self-restraint and school closure? Until the patient goes to zero? Continued containment indefinitely will wreak havoc on the Japanese economy and kill more than the dead in corona.

A group of European economists has compiled an urgent recommendation based on a report by the British government that "all economic policies should be mobilized."

As they point out, the outbreak of the new corona is temporary, but its economic consequences can be long-lasting, and lowering the peak of infection to contain it will deepen the valley of the economic crisis. The Japanese government should recognize this trade-off and stop excessive containment.

Even if it is now contained, the infection spreads until the collective immunity is established, so if the containment is stopped in the summer, the infection may spread again in the fall and peak this winter. Doing so could disrupt health care and cause many deaths.

So the problem is not to zero the patients, but to keep the peak within the capabilities of the hospital. That is the policy of the expert meeting of the Japanese government. It does not assume that the coronavirus will be completely contained, but rather delays its transmission to gain time and strengthen the healthcare system.

In other words, the Japanese government is essentially taking a collective immunity strategy. Controlling infection in this way is the secret of the "miracle of Japan." If the infection goes slowly and healthcare collapse is prevented, then the death counts will not increase.

A year's worth of time could provide vaccines and remedies for corona, but this cannot be publicly announced by the Japanese government. Criticism would be concentrated on Abe, as in Britain.

But professing is not a big deal. Japan has already adopted a rational strategy to cut peaks ahead of the UK, so it's time to lift self-restraint and gradually spread the infection.

There is a risk that infection will increase sharply if released suddenly, so why not first stop meaningless simultaneous school closures and release self-restraint in outdoor events such as baseball?
 
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We will see how the heat theory works here soon. Houston temps will approach 90 next week and probably will stay there.

The "controlled infection" strategy strikes me as fundamentally fascist.
 
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See if I can push it over 8.5? :rolleyes:

https://newswitch.jp/p/21537
では、新型コロナはいつ収束するのか。政府専門家会議のメンバーで、日本感染症学会の舘田一博理事長(東邦大学教授)は、「(日本は)4月以降は気温や湿度が上昇し、ウイルスが生き延びにくい環境になる」と、ウイルスの弱点を説明する。収束時期は「集団免疫などさまざまな要素が絡むので、正確には分からない」としながらも、気候が温暖になる夏前をめどに、ウイルスは一定程度減る方向に向くと見る。
So when does the new corona end? A member of the government experts' meeting, chairman TATEDA Kazuhiro (Professor of Toho University) of the Japanese Association for Infectious Diseases, explained the weakness of the virus "(Japan's) temperature and humidity will rise after April, making it difficult for the virus to survive." Although the convergence time "involves various factors such as collective immunity and is therefore not exactly known", the virus will subdue to a certain extent as the weather warms up before summer.
 
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We will see how the heat theory works here soon. Houston temps will approach 90 next week and probably will stay there.

The "controlled infection" strategy strikes me as fundamentally fascist.
Hopefully the heat makes a difference, but it will take some time for the signal to emerge from the noise of lots of other variables. First we'll see subtle damping effects of social distancing. People will be getting impatient. Then we'll see obvious damping and then a decline in cases. People will celebrate and push back against social distancing. Meanwhile the economic devastation will continue, and push back from that will just increase with time. And also it will be getting warmer. If things improve many will think it's the heat and not the social distancing. They'll almost certainly be wrong. Even seasonal viruses probably aren't very seasonal when first introduced into a population. Heat and other seasonal factors only make a difference on the margins.

I think the controlled infection strategy is a very bad idea, but I wouldn't call it fascist. There are legitimate concerns about the horrible effects of economic disaster that we're inflicting on ourselves. It's not obviously wrong (to me) that it might eventually cause more pain, suffering and death than letting the virus rip through society for the next six months plus secondary waves through winter and next year. I do think it's wrong, both ethically and as a practical matter. The concentrated suffering would likely be intolerable and political pressure would eventually force us to do what we're doing now.
 
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Hopefully the heat makes a difference, but it will take some time for the signal to emerge from the noise of lots of other variables. First we'll see subtle damping effects of social distancing. People will be getting impatient. Then we'll see obvious damping and then a decline in cases. People will celebrate and push back against social distancing. Meanwhile the economic devastation will continue, and push back from that will just increase with time. And also it will be getting warmer. If things improve many will think it's the heat and not the social distancing. They'll almost certainly be wrong. Even seasonal viruses probably aren't very seasonal when first introduced into a population. Heat and other seasonal factors only make a difference on the margins.

I think the controlled infection strategy is a very bad idea, but I wouldn't call it fascist. There are legitimate concerns about the horrible effects of economic disaster that we're inflicting on ourselves. It's not obviously wrong (to me) that it might eventually cause more pain, suffering and death than letting the virus rip through society for the next six months plus secondary waves through winter and next year. I do think it's wrong, both ethically and as a practical matter. The concentrated suffering would likely be intolerable and political pressure would eventually force us to do what we're doing now.

Visible deaths and suffering always trump the suffering of the unseen. Especially if the unseen are "projected" or "theoretical".
 
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I feel I should point out that the UK has changed tack, actually several days ago. Figures here suggested 500,000 dead with no action, 250,000 dead with the herd immunity action, and 20,000 dead with the current isolate and "what everyone else is doing" action.

I think someone pointed out that no government could survive if they allowed either of the first 2 numbers, when the third was possible.
 
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I feel I should point out that the UK has changed tack, actually several days ago. Figures here suggested 500,000 dead with no action, 250,000 dead with the herd immunity action, and 20,000 dead with the current isolate and "what everyone else is doing" action.

I think someone pointed out that no government could survive if they allowed either of the first 2 numbers, when the third was possible.

That makes sense. Any justification that weighs things so clearly at least gives people an insight into what is happening. I don't think you will kill 480K people in the near term through economic disclocation.
 
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More and more countries asking for Olympics to be postponed

USA, Canada, Norway, Brazil, Australia, no chance 2020.

Copa America and Euro 2020 have been postponed too, I still feel 2021 might be premature, who knows status of this problem 12 months down the track or if countries will experience a 2nd wave of the virus, 2022 is safer option for me.

Surely this is a major distraction to the athletes preparation, they should just be focusing on staying healthy and their families and not Olympics, very selfish Abe and IOC still delaying such a call, Abe should know Tokyo residents wouldn't approve event being held under such circumstances.

I get it, lot of money, sponsors, preparation has gone into it, surely insurance comes in to bail out a bit of it, but just rediculous to delay decisions. I'm big soccer fan and even FIFA and other bodies have already come out and made decisions of current and future tournaments.

I love Table Tennis, honestly best sport to follow. Australia has cricket and Aussie Rules Football which I find boring, TT is amazing and been looking forward to Tokyo 2020 for sometime and just really to watch TT, other events I'm not invested that much at all, but can't be at expense of human lives, or public safety.
 
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Maybe revisit the value of a social safety net. That determines how much citizens suffer and die from econ dislocation.

Not to be a neg nancy but 20k uk dead implies max 2mill infected. That's 3.3% of total pop. Does that seem plausible?
 
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Maybe revisit the value of a social safety net. That determines how much citizens suffer and die from econ dislocation.

Not to be a neg nancy but 20k uk dead implies max 2mill infected. That's 3.3% of total pop. Does that seem plausible?

I get it, like collateral damage, acceptable losses. Touchy subject as of course we don't want any people losing their lives but it happens.

My wife was telling me Italy refusing to treat elderly and focusing on people they believe they can save at higher percentage, my response was - look it's their decisions, I'm sure not easy decisions to make but they are acting on that they believe is correct decision.

My friend yesterday I told Australia must be doing something right 7 deaths, over 800 cases, that's like 0. 008%, I felt bad how I said it as using those poor people as statistics.

Extremely hard finding balance with keeping economy going and isolating everyone as we still need production, logistics, electricity, water, food during this crazy time, I get it.
 
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I get it, like collateral damage, acceptable losses. Touchy subject as of course we don't want any people losing their lives but it happens.

My wife was telling me Italy refusing to treat elderly and focusing on people they believe they can save at higher percentage, my response was - look it's their decisions, I'm sure not easy decisions to make but they are acting on that they believe is correct decision.

My friend yesterday I told Australia must be doing something right 7 deaths, over 800 cases, that's like 0. 008%, I felt bad how I said it as using those poor people as statistics.

Extremely hard finding balance with keeping economy going and isolating everyone as we still need production, logistics, electricity, water, food during this crazy time, I get it.

They (Italy) were forced into that though because their healthcare system was totally overwhelmed. They simply dont have enough ICUs or ventilators.That's what we have to try to avoid.

I'm watching Austealua closely. Like the US they are reportedly short on test kits. So total cases there are not really known. But it's late summer there. Maybe that helps?

I am a bit pessimistic that temperature will be a big factor. All the same, for the first time ever I am anxious for Houston summer to start. Because I hope its true. And it certainly might be true.
 
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Maybe revisit the value of a social safety net. That determines how much citizens suffer and die from econ dislocation.

Not to be a neg nancy but 20k uk dead implies max 2mill infected. That's 3.3% of total pop. Does that seem plausible?

Luckily, not my responsibilty, but these are the figures provided by Imperial College London

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-51632801

"The idea was that by pushing it back to the summer it would allow the NHS to cope.But modelling from Imperial College London prompted a change in approach.
It warned the policy of a managed spread could lead to more than 250,000 deaths, with hospital intensive care units getting overwhelmed.
Ministers are now seeking to suppress the spread completely.
They hope this will keep deaths below 20,000."

For those who don't know, all pubs, restaurants, cafes, leisure centres etc have been closed. Schools have been closed, except for children of key workers, who, it turns out, are people like doctors and nurses, not the investment bankers and such. Anyone in the at risk group, about 1.4 million plus elderly, is told to stay at home except for vital trips, to buy food etc, and everyone to maintain distancing. I suspect that within the next week, staying indoors will be enforced, at least for London, as it is in Paris and other places. I have been staying in for at least a week already. It was announced it would be proposed as from today, and I saw little reason to wait. Although I live near a city, it is quite small and the county itself is largely agricultural, so I can quite easily manage a walk without getting too close to anyone.

Meanwhile the supermarket chains are calling for more workers, NHS staff are being brought out of retirement. The talk now is of the "exit plan", different to the "Brexit" plan, but like that, I'm not sure there is one.
 
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Oh, and there are pledges of 330Bn pounds to help businesses and this includes paying up to 80% of the salary of employees, up to £2,500 per month. Banks are being required to relax conditions of loans, which some say is payback for being bailed out in the last crash. Access to unemployment and universal credit benefits for self employed. None of that really affects me at the moment, as I am retired.
 
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Luckily, not my responsibilty, but these are the figures provided by Imperial College London

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-51632801

"The idea was that by pushing it back to the summer it would allow the NHS to cope.But modelling from Imperial College London prompted a change in approach.
It warned the policy of a managed spread could lead to more than 250,000 deaths, with hospital intensive care units getting overwhelmed.
Ministers are now seeking to suppress the spread completely.
They hope this will keep deaths below 20,000."

For those who don't know, all pubs, restaurants, cafes, leisure centres etc have been closed. Schools have been closed, except for children of key workers, who, it turns out, are people like doctors and nurses, not the investment bankers and such. Anyone in the at risk group, about 1.4 million plus elderly, is told to stay at home except for vital trips, to buy food etc, and everyone to maintain distancing. I suspect that within the next week, staying indoors will be enforced, at least for London, as it is in Paris and other places. I have been staying in for at least a week already. It was announced it would be proposed as from today, and I saw little reason to wait. Although I live near a city, it is quite small and the county itself is largely agricultural, so I can quite easily manage a walk without getting too close to anyone.

Meanwhile the supermarket chains are calling for more workers, NHS staff are being brought out of retirement. The talk now is of the "exit plan", different to the "Brexit" plan, but like that, I'm not sure there is one.

Independent modeling in the US reached the same grim conclusion.
 
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here is some anecdotal evidence:

french TT forum: around 4400 members, but only less than 200 active members.
We have 4 infected people (each with all their families / people living together). 3 of them are regular posters, 1 of them not a regular one.
That suggests something like more than 1% of the population being already infected AND presenting symptoms.
We know that it takes something like 5-6 days to present symptoms while being infected, time during which the virus spreads around 2-3x.
So this is evidence that at least 2-3% of the French population is already infected, and that it could be even (much) more if we take into account asymptomatic carriers, a class of people which carry the virus and will NEVER present symptoms (but can yet transmit it to people who would present symptoms)
 
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