Caronavirus & Tokyo 2020

tropical · Mar 28, 2020

I know Trump and his admin/party are also responsible. But I do not like that some Chinese folks in this forum are trying to lure us into blaming Trump for his claiming this was a Chinese or Wuhan virus. Chinese Communist party is an animal. Trump is nowhere close to it. It is an arsonist and now a firefighter. I give the credit to what it did to prevent the virus from spreading in China and I blame Trump for his irresponsibility in dealing with the virus.

China must be responsible to start the fire. Trump must be responsible for his irresponsibility.

tropical · Mar 28, 2020

An analogy here.

A guy started a fire, accidentally or not we will look into it later. The fire spread to my neighborhood, burned many houses. My firefighter noticed the fire but failed to notify everyone because he was thinking this was nothing.

Now, we are still fighting for the fire. This arsonist' sons, friends and we are coming after our firefighter to blame him for not doing anything. Sure we (neighbors only, mind you) can blame the firefighter for his irresponsibility but the arsonist, his son, friends are acting like they are us? Give me a f..k break!

Baal · Mar 28, 2020

One thing though Tropical to keep in mind. Viruses have jumped from animals to people many times and many places, including in the US. Swine flu is an example where it happened here. It can happen anytime people and animals are in close proximity, and it's not like any one person or political party is to blame for that. In China tnd other places in Asia they have always had animals in open air markets that people in the west find weird. Here we have industrial poultry farms that are going to cause this to happen in the US, mark my words.

It is how leaders respond that matters. China got off to a slower start, but then got very aggressive. Trump who has had plenty of warning, continues to ignore scientists and public health authorities and every one of his responses to this minute is based on his own weird calculations about his own self interest a d his ego. Also his personal animosities. His handling of this has been an utter failure at every level.

I traveled to China before and after Xi Jinping was in control, since my wife is Chinese. Both of us found his neo-Maoism pretty disturbing. Lots of old style propaganda posters again, first thing I noticed especially in smaller towns. But Xi Jinping can talk in complete sentences about subjects without talking about himself.

tropical · Mar 28, 2020

Ball, I have no argument on Trump's irresponsibility as I said many times in this forum. But I do resent that some Chinese propagandists in this forum are trying to shift the responsibility.

If the CCP didn't try to ignore the threat or silence the whistle blowers in the beginning then it could have stopped the virus from starting or spreading by lessons learned from SARS, etc.. Its practice of eating wild animals for thousands of years was horrible both from environmental and sanity points of view. I don't think we disagree on this.

It is so bad that Trump is still acting like he has no responsibility on the spread and I hate that. He will have no chance to be reelected if the spread is getting worse in the next few months. China for sure is very happy for Trump's loss.

brokenball · Mar 28, 2020

This website is so one sided with opinions and not facts.
The CDC offered help to China on Jan 6. China refused.
We should have imposed travel restrictions on Chinese citizens then.
On Jan 28 the WHO still said there was no need for travel restrictions.
One Jan 31 Trump imposed travel restrictions on Chinese citizens anyway. He was called a racist.
What more do you want? Even then it was too late.
Careless actions of the cities leaders have made the problem much worse. Any health system can be overwhelmed by stupid people getting infected and spreading the virus. Look at Italy. The WHO claimed Italy had the second best health system in the world but it was still overwhelmed.
Finally the WHO called the CCP virus a pandemic. This was way too late.

There is nothing like video evidence instead of opinion.
City and local leader allowed or even encouraged gatherings. This is what exploded the virus spread in the US beyond what our medical system can easily handle.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tNflR2Ia7Hc
The irresponsible behavior of people have made this pandemic worse than it should have been. That starts with the CCP and WHO. Then government people that didn't shut things down soon enough and finally the stupid people like those kids on spring break and at the Mardi Gras.
Washington State was originally hit hard but there were no big public events allowed to spread the virus unlike New York, Louisiana and Florida.

The WHO is corrupt
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J8TfKok9Rns&t=4s

Why does China needs to many urns? Obviously not all are due to the CCP virus but the increase above average or normal is.
China is manipulating the numbers.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S2ME0KXYUd4&t=862s

The the EU isn't so united. The UK left just in the nick of time. EU countries are stealing from each other.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t-OssT6k5R0

I saw a comment above about not being able to model the virus. There are dozens of videos on YouTube about how to model a pandemic. I said before, the problem is getting the correct numbers.
There is one HUGE variable. Stupid people that ignore the warnings, catch then spread the virus like the kids on spring break. Anyway, the thing to notice initially is the rate of increase in the number of infected. This increase is usually exponential at first.

I can self isolate for a long time.
I have resources.
So who will pay for this? Trump can print money but eventually the interest rates will go negative and then no one will want the dollar and it will crash bringing the whole world economy to a halt. We wont be laughing at Venezuela anymore.

Baal · Mar 28, 2020

brokenball said:
.

I can self isolate for a long time.

That would be great.

Lots of people ARE modeling this pandemic and continue to do so. Those models were presented to Trump during briefings in January. A handful of Senators got the same info (and some proceeded to unload stock immediately, and invest in work from home software companies).

The thing is that Trump's statements and tweets since he got that info are a matter of public record, as well as his actions and lack thereof. Here are just a few.

Jan. 22: “We have it totally under control. It’s one person coming in from China. We have it under control. It’s going to be just fine.”

Jan. 30: “We think we have it very well under control. We have very little problem in this country at this moment — five — and those people are all recuperating successfully. But we’re working very closely with China and other countries, and we think it’s going to have a very good ending for us … that I can assure you.”

Feb. 10: “Now, the virus that we’re talking about having to do — you know, a lot of people think that goes away in April with the heat — as the heat comes in. Typically, that will go away in April. We’re in great shape though. We have 12 cases — 11 cases, and many of them are in good shape now.” — Trump at the White House.

Also:

“I don't take responsibility at all,”

“If they don’t treat you right, I don’t call,” Trump said of refusing to speak to the governors of two American states

In a meeting with health experts on Monday, Trump asked why doctors don’t just administer the flu vaccine to combat the virus.
“But the same vaccine could not work?” he said. “You take a solid flu vaccine — you don’t think that would have an impact or much of an impact on corona?”

and also.....

"I like this stuff. I really get it… every one of these doctors said, ‘how do you know so much about this?’ Maybe I have a natural ability."

<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:WordDocument> <w:View>Normal</w:View> <w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:TrackMoves/> <w:TrackFormatting/> <w

oNotShowRevisions/> <w

oNotPrintRevisions/> <w

oNotShowComments/> <w

oNotShowInsertionsAndDeletions/> <w

oNotShowPropertyChanges/> <w

unctuationKerning/> <w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/> <w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w

oNotPromoteQF/> <w:LidThemeOther>EN-US</w:LidThemeOther> <w:LidThemeAsian>X-NONE</w:LidThemeAsian> <w:LidThemeComplexScript>X-NONE</w:LidThemeComplexScript> <w:Compatibility> <w:BreakWrappedTables/> <w:SnapToGridInCell/> <w:WrapTextWithPunct/> <w:UseAsianBreakRules/> <w

ontGrowAutofit/> <w:SplitPgBreakAndParaMark/> <w:EnableOpenTypeKerning/> <w

ontFlipMirrorIndents/> <w:OverrideTableStyleHps/> </w:Compatibility> <m:mathPr> <m:mathFont m:val="Cambria Math"/> <m:brkBin m:val="before"/> <m:brkBinSub m:val="--"/> <m:smallFrac m:val="off"/> <m:dispDef/> <m:lMargin m:val="0"/> <m:rMargin m:val="0"/> <m:defJc m:val="centerGroup"/> <m:wrapIndent m:val="1440"/> <m:intLim m:val="subSup"/> <m:naryLim m:val="undOvr"/> </m:mathPr></w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]-->

Baal · Mar 28, 2020

The Governor of Florida, noted Trump supporter Ron DeSantis, waited until March 20 to take any action on beaches, and even then made an order that affected only two counties. This is going to devastate Florida, a place with lots of older people. Local authorities were more aggressive which may help a little.

GOP Governor of Alabama is refusing to take any steps at all. She said "we're not California or New York, y'all". It is a two hour drive from New Orleans to Mobile. Good luck with that.

The virus goes where the people go. Rule #1!!!!!!!!!!!

tropical · Mar 28, 2020

I went to New Orleans to celebrate the Mardi Gras from Feb 23-28. How dumb I was since I believed US could take care of this problem very well (from our dear POTUS and data) and there was zero case of virus in NO.

Baal · Mar 28, 2020

Tropical, you were not alone in being lulled into a false sense of security by our own federal government and those who suck up to them. The good news is that you are ok.

Rudy Giuliani tweeted today that hydroxychloroquine has a 100% success rate at treating Covid-19. That tweet was removed by Twitter. So far the clinical trial data we do have showed no effect. Maybe newer trials will show something different, once they are done.

tropical · Mar 28, 2020

That is bad news. I hope to hear good news from hydroxychloroquine. What about the Japanese drug that China used?

NextLevel · Mar 28, 2020

Is there good evidence that respirators/ventilators improve survival rates in people sick enough to use them?

Baal · Mar 28, 2020

This is interesting. Within the article linked below you can find the actual pandemic response plan that was developed by the National Security Council in 2016 as a result of Ebola and earlier infectious diseases. Coronaviruses were specifically mentioned as a Tier 1 (highest level) threat. You can actually read it (I've skimmed through it very briefly). It is officially called the "Playbook for Early Response to High-Consequence Emerging Infectious Disease Threats and Biological Incidents". It is amazing in its scope and detail. It was developed by the National Security Council who are (according to their website) "The President's principal forum for considering national security and foreign policy matters with his senior national security advisors and cabinet officials". It doesn't get much higher level than that. And they considered this kind of thing to be a likely threat.

None of this was followed in the current pandemic.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/25/trump-coronavirus-national-security-council-149285<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:WordDocument> <w:View>Normal</w:View> <w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:TrackMoves/> <w:TrackFormatting/> <w

unctuationKerning/> <w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/> <w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w

oNotPromoteQF/> <w:LidThemeOther>EN-US</w:LidThemeOther> <w:LidThemeAsian>X-NONE</w:LidThemeAsian> <w:LidThemeComplexScript>X-NONE</w:LidThemeComplexScript> <w:Compatibility> <w:BreakWrappedTables/> <w:SnapToGridInCell/> <w:WrapTextWithPunct/> <w:UseAsianBreakRules/> <w

ontGrowAutofit/> <w:SplitPgBreakAndParaMark/> <w:EnableOpenTypeKerning/> <w

ontFlipMirrorIndents/> <w:OverrideTableStyleHps/> <w:UseFELayout/> </w:Compatibility> <m:mathPr> <m:mathFont m:val="Cambria Math"/> <m:brkBin m:val="before"/> <m:brkBinSub m:val="--"/> <m:smallFrac m:val="off"/> <m:dispDef/> <m:lMargin m:val="0"/> <m:rMargin m:val="0"/> <m:defJc m:val="centerGroup"/> <m:wrapIndent m:val="1440"/> <m:intLim m:val="subSup"/> <m:naryLim m:val="undOvr"/> </m:mathPr></w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]-->

Baal · Mar 28, 2020

NextLevel said:
Is there good evidence that respirators/ventilators improve survival rates in people sick enough to use them?

I actually teach aspects of this, even though it's not my main area of expertise. (I teach the some of the science behind this, and I'm not a clinician). Ventilation is the standard treatment for anyone with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) which is generally what makes people die from a cornonavirus (or influenza for that matter).

During ARDS cells called type-2 pneumocytes in the lung stop making something called pulmonary surfactant, which has two bad consequences: gas exchange between little air sacs and capillaries carrying blood is reduced, and mechanical properties of the airways are badly altered, requiring more mechanical force (negative pressure) to fill them with air. At that point, without artificial ventilation, the patient will usually die. There are many other aspects too. There is an immune-mediated inflammatory response in the lungs causing the little air sacs (alveoli) to fill up with fluid, and the resulting release of cytokines from a variety of immune cells that live in the lung affects numerous other organ systems. The fluid filled alveoli are pretty much out of action. It is known that it is important to ventilate at low tidal volume but higher frequency (other wise you actually make the inflammation worse). A clinician colleague told me that often the ventilation works better if the patient is placed on their stomach, and it is often necessary to place the patient into an artificial coma so that they don't try to breathe on their own and fight the machine. (He learned this as an internal medicine resident, he doesn't actually do this kind of medicine). In really bad cases, they can try to put the blood into another type of machine to exchange blood gasses that way. In the mean time, they may also need to do temporary hemodialysis to maintain blood electrolytes.

I remember reading that survival of ARDS patients caused by viral infection (influenza primarily) who need a ventilator is definitely better than a coin toss, at least in ideal ICU conditions. But without it, chances of surviving approach zero. The reason these machines exist is because they work. ARDS actually has multiple causes.

The cytokine storm in ARDS and other factors have a tendency to cause failure of other organs, especially the kidneys. The patients are almost always acidotic due to elevated blood pCO2 which can quickly become lethal if kidneys fail. There is almost always a hypokalemia (low blood K+) that is hard to manage also, and which can lead to fatal cardiac arythmias. If you can provide sufficient pulmonary gas exchange until the inflammation resolves, and if other organs don't start to fail, the patient will usually live. Critical care physicians and pulmonologists typically have a lot of experience dealing with this in influenza patients, and the procedures for coronavirus are the same.

You can find information on this all over the internet if you use search terms like: ARDS, ventilation, influenza, respiratory critical care.

Baal · Mar 28, 2020

tropical said:
That is bad news. I hope to hear good news from hydroxychloroquine. What about the Japanese drug that China used?

Me too.

Lots of drugs are being tested. I hope we here something pretty soon. There is no shortage of patients and the disease runs its course pretty quickly.

igorponger · Mar 28, 2020

Some patented drugs to save your life on some happy occasion. Fairly costly stuff.

zeio · Mar 29, 2020

Here's a running gag that's been floating around lately.

When Wuhan was in lockdown,
a one-on-one support system was established to help out cities of Hubei,
coined "one province for one city".

Now that Wuhan is off the hook,
the relief effort has entered the next phase -
"one province for one country".

Shanghai - Iran;
Guangdong - Iraq, Serbia;
Sichuan/Zhejiang/Fujian - Italy;
...

In a recent call with Xi Jinping:
Trump: "Which province are you sending us?"
.
.
.
.
.
.
Xi: "Hmm, Taiwan?"
Trump: "Uh, what? Ah ****."

Opinari · Mar 29, 2020

A huge kudos to Baal for constantly responding with facts, reason and sense. Wish our leadership was more like this.

It's been frightening to watch our president (and his enablers) swing between inconsistent / illogical narratives.

First, they denied the seriousness of the virus as a media hoax. And then when it turned out to be real, they pointed fingers at outsiders (e.g., WHO, China, etc.) instead of asking what could we do before it got worse.

Now it's sunk to a level that simply horrifies me - they argue that we should just reopen the economy now regardless of the human cost. It's not based on any real cost-benefit analysis (which would suggest reopening later).

This pandemic will reveal the soul of our country. Do we care enough for our fellow citizens to do what's right? Are we just all about ourselves, in an union of convenience - every state, every city and every man running their own cost-benefit analysis, following the example of our president...

Baal said:
That would be great.

Lots of people ARE modeling this pandemic and continue to do so. Those models were presented to Trump during briefings in January. A handful of Senators got the same info (and some proceeded to unload stock immediately, and invest in work from home software companies).

The thing is that Trump's statements and tweets since he got that info are a matter of public record, as well as his actions and lack thereof. Here are just a few.

Jan. 22: “We have it totally under control. It’s one person coming in from China. We have it under control. It’s going to be just fine.”

Jan. 30: “We think we have it very well under control. We have very little problem in this country at this moment — five — and those people are all recuperating successfully. But we’re working very closely with China and other countries, and we think it’s going to have a very good ending for us … that I can assure you.”

Feb. 10: “Now, the virus that we’re talking about having to do — you know, a lot of people think that goes away in April with the heat — as the heat comes in. Typically, that will go away in April. We’re in great shape though. We have 12 cases — 11 cases, and many of them are in good shape now.” — Trump at the White House.

Also:

“I don't take responsibility at all,”

“If they don’t treat you right, I don’t call,” Trump said of refusing to speak to the governors of two American states

In a meeting with health experts on Monday, Trump asked why doctors don’t just administer the flu vaccine to combat the virus.
“But the same vaccine could not work?” he said. “You take a solid flu vaccine — you don’t think that would have an impact or much of an impact on corona?”

and also.....

"I like this stuff. I really get it… every one of these doctors said, ‘how do you know so much about this?’ Maybe I have a natural ability."

zeio · Mar 30, 2020

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/nidhiprakash/coronavirus-update-dead-covid19-doctors-hospitals

Doctors And Nurses Say More People Are Dying Of COVID-19 In The US Than We Know

“The numbers are grossly underreported. I know for a fact that we’ve had three deaths in one county where only one is listed on the website,” one California ER doctor told BuzzFeed News.

zeio · Mar 30, 2020

https://japantoday.com/category/ent...omedian-ken-shimura-dies-from-coronavirus-nhk

Dr Evil · Mar 30, 2020

[h=1]https://www.espn.com/olympics/story/_/id/28969950/tokyo-olympic-opening-ceremony-rescheduled-july-23-2021[/h]Tokyo Olympic opening ceremony rescheduled for July 23, 2021

Caronavirus & Tokyo 2020

Active Member

Active Member

Well-Known Member

Active Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Active Member

Well-Known Member

Active Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Member

Similar threads