Caronavirus & Tokyo 2020

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Back to the OP, 16 pages back.

I find it appalling that the Olympics have not been canceled. Talk about a perfect way to jumpstart the spread of this even assuming it dies down a bit over the summer!
 
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By the way, re my recent comment that the problem was obvious in January, here is some simple arithmetic:

Assume the death rate is 1%. That suggests by the time one person dies, 100 were already infected a couple weeks earlier. Assume the rate of spread for any new coronavirus. That means by the time the first person has died hundreds more are now infected. Of course, real epidemiologists can instantly bring sophisticated models to estimate spread in time and space under various sets of assumptions. For people in that field, it was obvious.

So as soon as rumors came out of China, a serious response needed to be triggered in the US and elsewhere.
 
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Doctors often don't. But public health experts and epidemiologists do. It's their bread and butter. That's why you need public health experts making the decisions.

To which I add that the current director if the CDC is not a public health expert. It's why his political appointment st tge time raised some eyebrows.
 
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By the way, re my recent comment that the problem was obvious in January, here is some simple arithmetic:

Assume the death rate is 1%. That suggests by the time one person dies, 100 were already infected a couple weeks earlier. Assume the rate of spread for any new coronavirus. That means by the time the first person has died hundreds more are now infected. Of course, real epidemiologists can instantly bring sophisticated models to estimate spread in time and space under various sets of assumptions. For people in that field, it was obvious.

So as soon as rumors came out of China, a serious response needed to be triggered in the US and elsewhere.


No, it doesn't work like that.
You are a professor, discuss it with your colegues in psycology, social sciences /especially social cybernetics and management/, political sciences, economics, media and public relations, crisis management, even with mathematicians and statistics specialist in the theory of large numbers.
Compile that all and try to hit the delta t moment for every paricular mini-max result and consequence.
 
Strange coincidence. The novel "The Eyes of Darkness" by Dean Koontz mentions a virus named "Wuhan 400" hitting the globe and in the year 2020.

I thought I've mentioned it here, or maybe in another forum?

In the 1981 original the virus comes from Gorki-400, a lab near the town of Gorki, USSR.
After the end of the Cold War, as a political correction, the 1989 issue of the book was edited to Wuhan-400, just to complement the "new democratic" Russia.
So its just a matter of coincidence, but this coincidence is very sensitive to the forces, which I described in my previous posting.
 
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I think the final budget that came out from the congressional committee ended up cutting .5 Billion from CDC. Gotta search that, if true, would be in the neighborhood of a large pressure to cut 10% budget every year from many agencies. Overall, budget request for FY2020 was 6.59 billion USD.

I hear now that there is bi-partisan support for a couple billion USD congressional appropriation for Corona. I do not believe that congress is feeling a sense of urgency on this. If there is support on both sides and urgency, it would not take long. Congress does not fix anything by making a law or authorizing money. It takes the right individuals and teams doing the right thing, but of course, they do not work for free and they are not provided free supplies and labor. So of course congressional funding makes the difference.

Interesting that DoD got a really increased budget for new programs (some will do us well, some will only do top 10 contractors well). The 10% budget reduction pressure is real, even within DoD departments and DoD agencies, but overall, DoD got a large increase.

US Government spending is wildly inefficient. The govt has become too large and diverse for an entity to figure out and cure the inefficiencies (although the IG teams are charged with a lot of that mission) What congress and Office of Budget Management does is try to fix that by reducing the budget on the premise that the agencies will still get the mission done and have to figure out how to do it with less. That works to a degree, but you hit a point where people retire and no one can get hired on and get the years of experience of who left. After a while, you nd up worse than before. A lot of our government is getting like this.

The link to the pdf is the 2020 Budget for CDC sent to congress to chew over (and finally decided upon early 2020). I got this off the CDC website. What congress finally decides upon is usually is some large or small form different from what executive branch sends to legislative branch. Congress has the "power of the purse".

https://www.cdc.gov/budget/documents/fy2020/cdc-overview-factsheet.pdf

The pdf is a 2 page doc highlighting the major areas of fiscal allocation.

I have similar opinions of Baal of the senior leadership of our federal agencies. They are all executive branch political appointees vetted/ratified by congress and this has been so throughout my lifetime regardless of who is in whitehouse or congress. Sometimes we get someone decisive/competent, but never hope for much.

The ones who have been on top of CDC and FDA have come from industry and go back to industry and for all appearances, have supported industry. I have the same concerns of Baal of CDC and our other agencies having a coordinated, effective vision and execution. Government seems to not be able over time do what is right for the American public with any vision and continuity as who leads Government changes. That can be good and bad and we got it.

A few of my TT friends have had a spell in NIH funded research and one of them parlayed it into a USA residence further researching.
 
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Amazing statistic you can have with your covfefe. Korea has already tested close to 200,000 people. US, less than 2,000.
 
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In Italy they have done far less testing. They have about same number of REPORTED cases as Korea. Deaths in Italy are quite a bit higher percentage than in Korea. Probable explanation? Reported cases in Italy are just the tip of the iceberg and would be higher if they tested more. If you live in the US this should worry you.

Exactly, and that were part of my first assumptions - the virus has been out there for a longer time and there are much more infected than tehe statistics, but at the same time those who feel health problems are much less than the infected and the death rate is much lower, near to ordinary flu treshold.
And again about the overpanic - it may kill you instead of the virus:

https://abcnews.go.com/Internationa...ng-iran-protect-coronavirus/story?id=69481841

The key word is "REASONABLE". All you do should be of good reason and with steady mind.
 
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