Caronavirus & Tokyo 2020

ZeroTT said:

Well according to experts we have no idea yet.

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Nobody wants to be wrong or more importantly misleading. It is like saying that you are not sure whether you will die in the next 70 years because you haven't died yet and no one knows how long you will live. Coronaviruses are said to have a structure that makes them susceptible to certain things. No one wants to be the one to say something that gets misinterpreted the wrong way so if this is not going to behave like a typical coronavirus, let us know why.

I'm not a virologist but I know a lot of biochemistry and cell biology and pulmonary physiology (I teach some the later two at a university). I would be a bit surprised if hot weather doesn't slow it down, especially highly humid conditions, which would tend to reduce movement of virus in aerosols. A reasonable first guess is that SARS-CoV-2 ought to behave somewhat like SARS-CoV.

But slowing is not the same as halting, and bringing gazillions of visitors to Japan and putting them in sports stadiums, locker rooms, restaurants etc., and then they return to all over the world, seems to me to be the height of folly.

And again, the virologists and public health experts who know about coronaviruses as a group emphasize that guessing is not knowing and it's better to take more stringent measures than to screw up when stakes are this high.

Bear in mind too that CoVID-19 is circulating in Australia. It is still summer there.

Here is an interesting article in this weeks issue of Science about seasonality of infectious diseases in general. It turns out in a lot of cases the reason for the seasonality is not known. Different viruses peak at different times of year. That's a good part of the reason people are saying that Covid-19 is hard to predict and we can't simply assume it will behave like SARS. It also emphasizes that public health steps contributed to that decline in the case of SARS. This one has spread already so widely that maybe all bets are off.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/202...seases-wax-and-wane-seasons-and-will-covid-19

ZeroTT said:

We don't even know that Covid-19 will be slowed down by warm weather.

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ZeroTT said:

Here in Europe It's spreading like wildfire in Italy (28k)and Spain (10k).

In the weeks the virus was spreading it was 20+ degrees celsius in both Italy and Spain.

So I wouldn't bet on better weather stopping this.

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NextLevel said:

Every country has its seasons. Warm weather slows down just about every coronavirus out there. If this is the exception then someone has to explain what makes it special.

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ZeroTT said:

Also it has spread ed in Iran where it's warm as well.

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Current temperature in Iran is almost exactly the same as NYC. 51 degrees F (10 C) in NYC, 54 degrees F (12 C) in Iran.

ZeroTT said:

Well, according to experts we have no idea yet.

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It is true, we don't know for sure yet. But using Iran as an example as though it is a different temperature there than it is, well, it would be worth researching that better. There is enough bad information out there. No need to add to it. We don't know. But the places where it is most active are not warmer than normal spring weather fluctuations.

Also, I just looked at the temperature in New South Wales which is the territory in Australia where the CoVID-19 virus has the largest number of cases. The temperature there is: 10.4 C which is just short of 51 F.

So, the areas where, if you just look on a map, it looks like it might be hot but that have noteworthy outbreaks of CoVID-19 are actually having temperatures ideal for the spread of most coronaviruses.

Here is a great article from a leader in the field at the Harvard School of Public Health explaining in detail the reasons why viral infectious disease epidemiologists are not certain if warm weather will slow down Covid-19. It is a very balanced article and he makes cogent points about SARS by comparison. I really recommend this one.

https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/will-covid-19-go-away-on-its-own-in-warmer-weather/

Baal said:

Here is a great article from a leader in the field at the Harvard School of Public Health explaining in detail the reasons why viral infectious disease epidemiologists are not certain if warm weather will slow down Covid-19. It is a very balanced article and he makes cogent points about SARS by comparison. I really recommend this one.

https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/will-covid-19-go-away-on-its-own-in-warmer-weather/

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The article seems to scale with what I would expect. It is a good article.

One interesting thing I just read from the Australian Gov Dept of Health site where I got the info that New South Wales was the region with the most confirmed cases, was, that of the 454 confirmed cases since the site was last updated, 3/18, of all of the confirmed cases, they can trace all but 26 to contacts directly, or indirectly from other countries.

So, so far, they are not having widespread, community spread where they cannot trace where the virus came from. And almost half of their known cases are in New South Wales.

Your comments regarding the temperature in New South Wales are totally wrong. In the city of Sydney where nearly all of the cases have been recorded for NSW, the lowest minimum temperature recorded for March this year is 13.3 C. The average minimum for March so far is 17.5 C while the average maximum for Sydney so far this month is 24.6 C, with the highest temperature recorded being 37.6 C.

Australia started slowly but cases now seem to be doubling every 2-4 days just like a lot of other countries. Most are people who have returned to Australia from countries with high infection rates but there are still a lot being infected in Australia. Travel restrictions are now in place so we will see what happens in the next few weeks. Winter is still a couple of months away.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=InhSMpH9mXQ

yeh sure, I can understand Americans are not rushing to buying Dignics during these times...

UpSideDownCarl said:

Current temperature in Iran is almost exactly the same as NYC. 51 degrees F (10 C) in NYC, 54 degrees F (12 C) in Iran.




It is true, we don't know for sure yet. But using Iran as an example as though it is a different temperature there than it is, well, it would be worth researching that better. There is enough bad information out there. No need to add to it.

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Karl I DID research the temperature in Iran. In the whole month March it has never been 10C there.
So your information is wrong and you are the one spreading bad information and adding to it.

Last week in Iran every day it was above 20 degrees Celsius.

You probably did and temperature Iran search while it was night time in Iran because of the time difference.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/ir/tehran/210841/march-weather/210841

Anyways I'm not here to start a discussion about temperatures.
I just wanted to point out that the virus is spreading in warm areas just as fast right now.

This virus has a protective shell of Fat, not Protein.
If it was with a protein shell, it would be more sensitive to temperature change, but it is not.
This virus is not airborne, so its vitality depands mostly on the temperature of the human body.

So I think that concentrating on the ambient temperature is not very relevant.

UpSideDownCarl said:

The article seems to scale with what I would expect.

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Proposition A.

UpSideDownCarl said:

It is a good article.

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Proposition B.

The juxtaposition of A and B, to the casual reader, might suggest a relation between A and B. If indeed read like that (A, therefore B), that's textbook confirmation bias. You didn't mean it that way, now did you, Carl?

Or did you really mean to say you think it's a good article because it matches your expectations?

Takkyu_wa_inochi said:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=InhSMpH9mXQ

yeh sure, I can understand Americans are not rushing to buying Dignics during these times...

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Because you think rushing to the gun store in utter panic is a rational response? Not getting that entirely.

By warm temperature, I think of 30 degrees or more. Summer temp in Beijing. But temp may not be the key factor.

Langel, the S protein of SARS-CoV-2 has to engage with ACE2 protein in lung cells to infect you. That protein has to maintain its structure up to at least body temp. So any effect of temp on transmission is probably not directly on the virus except if it is attached to a surface like metal or plastic. UV light intensity could be important, it is greater in summer. Without doubt the particles move through air from person to person. Humidity might affect this. Probably seasons affect the host ( us) altering immunesystems (vitamin D??), or behavior (time indoors in close proximity) or even the extent to which our bodies are simultaneously fighting off OTHER viruses. So temp may not even be very important. Or it might.

So we dont know if Covid-19 will be seasonal, and if so, why.

Bear in mind, any effect that exists is statistical. It might lower probability but you could still get sick. Right now we dont know how ,such if any it lowers probability.

langel said:

This virus has a protective shell of Fat, not Protein.
If it was with a protein shell, it would be more sensitive to temperature change, but it is not.
This virus is not airborne, so its vitality depands mostly on the temperature of the human body.

So I think that concentrating on the ambient temperature is not very relevant.

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SARS outbreak ended abruptly in May, naturally hot weather is speculated as the factor. SARS virus also has membrane as outer shell. Maybe affinities between spike proteins on the virus and receptors on host are sensitive to temperature.
Aerosol transmission is confirmed for coronavirus. Not sure if it should be qualified as airborne.

If we return to the subject of the thread, I suggest it would be irresponsible to hold the Olympics this year. Going to the example of the so-called "Spanish Flu" of 1918 (and yes, it was quite different, different times, it affected 20-35-year-olds disproportionately etc.), we can expect waves of the infection.

The first wave of the 1918 flu came (probably via wildfowl to farm animals to a farm worker who became a cook in the army) from an army camp in Kansas, spread through more military bases, and went on-board troop ships to the European battle front. This was in March 1918. From there it spread, via repatriated victims to other countries in Europe, and the world.

It seemed to have passed by early August, but then came back in mutated and highly dangerous form, from another US military base near Boston, and was transmitted through Europe in exactly the same way as the earlier version. This was now the very vicious form, that killed more people than both World Wars.

The third wave came at the end of the war. Tragically, because everyone was so happy, not just about the war but the expectation that the flu was dying down as well, they all went out into the streets in one of those spontaneous expressions of happiness, hugging and kissing strangers. This kick-started the virus again in November, and it carried on at least until the middle of 1919, possibly longer.

It is very easy to draw comparisons with the victory celebrations and the Olympics due later this year. There is a well-known sports commentator's quote here about the 1966 World Cup; "They think it's all over...*", referring to crowds rushing onto the Wembley pitch before the final was actually over.

(The other very real comparison is with governments, who tried to downplay the seriousness of the outbreaks, due to "wartime morale" at that time, and sheer cussedness now. The reason it was called Spanish Flu was because Spain was a neutral country, and thus the disease was reported in Spanish papers without government intervention. Foreign journalists in Spain started calling it the "Spanish" flu, and the name stuck.)

I am classified as having serious under-lying issues (diabetes, asthma and heart) as well as being nearly 70. I do not look forward to spending any more time than necessary isolated in my home. But I really don't want to rush back onto the pitch before "...*it is now".

Information from BBC 2018 documentary
"The Flu That Killed 50M" https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p06l5h0x and https://www.thoughtco.com/1918-spanish-flu-pandemic-1779224 (accessed 17 March 2020)

Yes, irresponsible to even consider any near-term international event.

EGMO is cancelled, https://egmo2020.nl/2020/03/13/egmo2020-in-the-netherlands-is-cancelled/, and that's nowhere near Olympic scale — “more than 500 people, coming from more than 50 countries, were planning to come to the Netherlands. Considering the current safety measures and the evolution of the situation in regards with the coronavirus, the organisation has decided to cancel the EGMO2020”. Very sad things have come to this, but still, a wise decision.

Shinzo Abe or the IOC (maybe even both) will no doubt adapt to reality at some point. In my view, starting to plan for the inevitable sooner rather than later would be the smart thing to do; and I'd hope they actually are doing so, even while stating differently for whatever purpose.

yoass said:

Proposition A.



Proposition B.

The juxtaposition of A and B, to the casual reader, might suggest a relation between A and B. If indeed read like that (A, therefore B), that's textbook confirmation bias. You didn't mean it that way, now did you, Carl?

Or did you really mean to say you think it's a good article because it matches your expectations?

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What I actually meant was, the writer did a good job of presenting both sides of the issue and looking at it from all sides. That is why I thought it was a good article. It scales with what I expect because I know we just don't know. And I think it is a good article because it looks at the information objectively and says what the author feels he can say.

I honestly don't know much. So it was more that the author presented a range of possibilities and it sounded to me like part of that was, the idea that we need to be prepared for this virus not being slowed down too much by the temperature. So, I am not sure. But I would be hoping it would be slowed down by warmer temperature. But I thought he presented good reasons for why it may not be which included how very few, as of now, already have a built in immunity.

So, that definitely was not something I already thought or understood. But he presented balanced information.

https://in.reuters.com/article/heal...s-2020-the-cursed-olympics-idINKBN2152MV?il=0

40-year cycle: Top Japan minister calls 2020 the 'cursed Olympics'

TOKYO (Reuters) - First, the cancellation in 1940. Then, the mass boycott in Moscow in 1980.

Forty years on, the upcoming Tokyo Games are the “cursed Olympics” once again, Japan’s finance minister said, in remarks that could stir controversy at a time when his government is scrambling to quash speculation that the coronavirus epidemic could derail the world’s biggest sporting event this year.

“It’s a problem that’s happened every 40 years - it’s the cursed Olympics - and that’s a fact,” Taro Aso, who also serves as deputy prime minister, said in a parliamentary committee on Wednesday.

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ZeroTT said:

Karl I DID research the temperature in Iran. In the whole month March it has never been 10C there.
So your information is wrong and you are the one spreading bad information and adding to it.

Last week in Iran every day it was above 20 degrees Celsius.

You probably did and temperature Iran search while it was night time in Iran because of the time difference.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/ir/tehran/210841/march-weather/210841

Anyways I'm not here to start a discussion about temperatures.
I just wanted to point out that the virus is spreading in warm areas just as fast right now.

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I got the information from a friend from Iran who said, temperatures in Iran at this time of year are not too different from temperatures in NYC.

Then, when I looked on line at the current temperature in Iran, it was around midnight in NYC so it was around 7:30am in Tehran. I just looked and the temperatures were very close. And in a desert, the temperature from day to night fluctuates. And usually in the desert there is fairly dry air which is part of why the temperature can drop so much at night. My understanding is, those are actually ideal circumstances for this kind of thing to spread. Less humidity and varying temperatures.

Right now it is 50 F (10 C) in NYC and 60 F (16 C) in Tehran. I would still say that is still in that range. It is 1:21pm in NYC, it is 8:51pm in Iran. That is not warm all day summer type weather. So, I would simply have to disagree with your research.

deams59 said:

Your comments regarding the temperature in New South Wales are totally wrong. In the city of Sydney where nearly all of the cases have been recorded for NSW, the lowest minimum temperature recorded for March this year is 13.3 C. The average minimum for March so far is 17.5 C while the average maximum for Sydney so far this month is 24.6 C, with the highest temperature recorded being 37.6 C.

Australia started slowly but cases now seem to be doubling every 2-4 days just like a lot of other countries. Most are people who have returned to Australia from countries with high infection rates but there are still a lot being infected in Australia. Travel restrictions are now in place so we will see what happens in the next few weeks. Winter is still a couple of months away.

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Last night when I looked for temperatures in NSW, that is what the weather channel gave me. But, I did not do any research on it. I just looked at one temperature result. But, it was interesting that that is what I got. In Sydney, right now, the internet tells me it is 63 F (17 C). Is that wrong? I got the info from the same weather app last night.

Maybe I am wrong about some things. But the temperatures I presented were ones I pulled from online at the time.

And I believe that article Baal posted and some of what Baal has said indicate, maybe summer temperatures won't be much of a factor. It seems, the way that article presented things, that that may be right. Summer may not slow this.

But we still really don't know yet. And I am not sure Iran or NSW are good examples for why summer won't impact things. We just don't know yet is the only answer I have heard that sounds credible.