Caronavirus & Tokyo 2020

igorponger said:

The world's only Realist.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/s...ader-call-delay-Tokyo-2020-Olympic-Games.html

Mr.Trump is a famous national leader of Profound sagacity. He takes a realistic view of the problem, no rose glasses. GO on, Mr. President.

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That is f#$king nonsense perhaps explained by the Russian source of the comment. His administration is the reason our country is so unprepared for this. The level of incompetence shown is almost impossible to put into words. (I work with people who are actual experts in public health and hear more insane details daily) At this point one starts to suspect that the scandalous lack of testing here is an intentional policy designed to keep the numbers low. (Trump has stated his desire for low numbers). States have requested extra protective gear for health workers and it doesnt exist. And yet any epidemiologist could have told him this was coming more than a month ago. Several did, in fact. Nothing was done to prepare for this. The precious time was squandered. Top scientists in NIH have been muzzled and all messaging goes through Mike Pence, who denies evolution and is still not convinced that smoking is bad for you. The Trump budget for next year continues to have major cuts to CDC and NIH. Even now, and they're sticking to it.. A month ago Trump met with several anti-vax groups. Now he is calling for a vaccine and ignoring what the top scientists and drug companies in the country tell him about how long this takes. He's had this explained to him several times and still doesn't get it. Just a few days ago he suggested it was a hoax. Then he said it would die out by itself, and suggested there was no need to stay home if you are sick. To call it moronic is an insult to morons.

As for the Olympics, yeah, he's right about that. Even a stopped clock is right twice a day. But nobody in the world (except maybe in Russia) much cares what he thinks so what he says about this will have little impact.

To my fellow TT players here in the US all I can say us the $hi# is about to hit the fan. So take the necessary steps to protect yourselves. To members in the rest of the world all I can do is apologize for what these people have failed to do.

Clearly the actual realists are not running the US. The main thing from Trump for weeks has been denial of reality. I think the realists are in Taiwan and Korea, Singapore and Hong Kong.

ABE is a dangerous psychotic criminal

Cancelling? Unthinkable.

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/sports...ko-koike-says-canceling-olympics-unthinkable/

I don't think it's a good idea right now to put people from 206 nations together in 1 small village and then make them spread out again 3 weeks later.
All sports games in Europe are cancelled now, even Euro 2020 Football.
But the biggest and most Global sports event will continue?

The virus is just starting to spread in some parts of the world, there is no way this will be over in July.
America is just Starting, Europe is just starting and every expert says this won't be over soon.

ZeroTT said:

I don't think it's a good idea right now to put people from 206 nations together in 1 small village and then make them spread out again 3 weeks later.
All sports games in Europe are cancelled now, even Euro 2020 Football.
But the biggest and most Global sports event will continue?

The virus is just starting to spread in some parts of the world, there is no way this will be over in July.
America is just Starting, Europe is just starting and every expert says this won't be over soon.

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The virus is going to spread whether we like it or not. The question is whether what not having the Olympics actually achieves.

Takkyu_wa_inochi said:

ABE is a dangerous psychotic criminal

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That's a synonym for "stable genius", I suppose?

NextLevel said:

The virus is going to spread whether we like it or not. The question is whether what not having the Olympics actually achieves.

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Well, to have it it would be to create formidable additional exposure vectors. At this point, flattening the logistics curve is all we can do for a fighting chance to deal with the upcoming onslaught, hoping we can prevent a total health system collapse, first, and the subsequent total societal collapse that would follow it.

For those that like ‘Zombie Apocalypse’ scenario's, doing the Olympics at this point would be a dream come true.

yoass said:

Well, to have it it would be to create formidable additional exposure vectors. At this point, flattening the logistics curve is all we can do for a fighting chance to deal with the upcoming onslaught, hoping we can prevent a total health system collapse, first, and the subsequent total societal collapse that would follow it.

For those that like ‘Zombie Apocalypse’ scenario's, doing the Olympics at this point would be a dream come true.

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But what makes you so sure that the exposure vectors are not already formidable? And given that most people who catch the virus recover fairly quickly, what is the main goal?

The Olympics will also be held during the summer. Flu isn't a big deal then. Isn't it more likely than not this disease will follow that pattern?

NextLevel said:

But what makes you so sure that the exposure vectors are not already formidable? And given that most people who catch the virus recover fairly quickly, what is the main goal?

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I would not claim it's not formidable already. I'm merely stating that at this point in time limiting exposure (on conjuction with suppressing the infection rate upon exposure) is all we have to dampen the slope of the logistics curve — which is what, if anything, gives us a fighting chance.

I also would not claim that those infected recover "fairly quickly" either, by the way. But "fairly quickly" does leave room for interpretation.

NextLevel said:

The Olympics will also be held during the summer. Flu isn't a big deal then. Isn't it more likely than not this disease will follow that pattern?

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No, early evidence does not support CoV-SARS-2 shares this trait with Influenza. Summer in Tokyo is winter in Sidney, by the way.

Which is not to say I'm entirely pessimistic. Yet at this point not seriously considering cancellation of events that would form hubs for mass exposure with near-immediate large-scale world-wide propagation does sound foolish to me.

Reporting:
Couldn't take a haircut - 5euro stylists closed out of panic, 50euro stylists are not paniced.
But I don't have enough hairs to count the 50euro cents, sorry.
Gunna wait, if alive gunna look like Powhatan, or Tecumseh, will see.

ITTF suspends all activity until the end of April.

https://www.ittf.com/2020/03/13/ittf-suspends-activities-provisionally-end-april/

An update to the WHO standards with metric requirements

NextLevel said:

But what makes you so sure that the exposure vectors are not already formidable? And given that most people who catch the virus recover fairly quickly, what is the main goal?

The Olympics will also be held during the summer. Flu isn't a big deal then. Isn't it more likely than not this disease will follow that pattern?

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1. We dont know how seasonal this virus will be because it is new. Dr. Peter Hotez, a colleague of mine in Houston and a world authority on infectious disease epidemiology, has emphasized this point. We simply cant make any assumptions about that. We cant even say it is more or less likely. It is not flu. And it is not SARS1.

2. Yes it will spread but we need to slow and limit its spread (and not prolong its persistence). This is why sports events are being canceled.

3. If we fail to limit its spread, health systems will be overwhelmed. A colleague in Italy tells me that where he works they are setting up makeshift ICU units in regular rooms, and they cant handle anyone else who is is in critical condition because they dont have more ventilators, and staff are wsy down because many are infected. . And it's still growing there. Let's give the world's doctors and nurses a fighting chance.

4. The O.ympics must be canceled. And I predict they will in time, if for no other reason than qualification events will be canceled. Right now they are waiting to see what happens, I suspect, not wanting to act in haste.

5. Recover quickly? Yes, unless you dont. This thing kills people.

Baal said:

1. We dont know how seasonal this virus will be because it is new. Dr. Peter Hotez, a colleague of mine in Houston and a world authority on infectious disease epidemiology, has emphasized this point. We simply cant make any assumptions about that. We cant even say it is more or less likely. It is not flu. And it is not SARS1.

2. Yes it will spread but we need to slow and limit its spread (and not prolong its persistence). This is why sports events are being canceled.

3. If we fail to limit its spread, health systems will be overwhelmed. A colleague in Italy tells me that where he works they are setting up makeshift ICU units in regular rooms, and they cant handle anyone else who is is in critical condition because they dont have more ventilators, and staff are wsy down because many are infected. . And it's still growing there.

4. The O.ympics must be canceled. And I predict they will in time, if for no other reason than qualification events will be canceled. Right now they are waiting to see what happens, I suspect, not wanting to act in haste.

5. Recover quickly? Yes, unless you dont. This thing kills people.

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Isn't it a coronavirus? Is he saying that because the flu and Sars 1 don't have any patterns or is he saying that because he wants to be cautious as a scientist?

There are other virologists who have said that these kinds of viruses tend not to do well and propagate as well in warmer temperatures. We can't make assumptions on the basis of how coronaviruses generally behave?

Here is an article on what infection can be like. And like I said, I am 85% positive that I have already gone through a period of infection. You probably are all positive as well but just think you aren't because you are asymptomatic.

https://nationalpost.com/news/these...virus-say-they-barely-knew-they-were-infected

I get the health systems will be overwhelmed argument. What I suspect is that this is not something as under control of people as we think it is and it is more reasonable to treat this as a flu against which we don't have the immunity of a flu shot. In which case most infected people will never go to the hospital and the people most at risk are those with pre-existing conditions. And the spread is not as easy to control as anyone would pretend it is.

The flu also kills people but no one is shutting down the Olympics for it. What must made clear is that there is a tangible benefit to not having the Olympics. That is my point.

Gobert would have played if the NBA let him. He felt that good.

It is a coronavirus. So was MERS. MERS thrived in a hot environment. It is unknown how this one will behave. Maybe we get lucky. The only way to control it is to stop congregating. It is not easy and requires draconian measures, like canceling the Olympics. Gobert felt good. Maybe the wife of the brother of the coach he infected dies. And if, for example, you have immune system issues, you need to be even more careful. If you didn't get tested you can't know if your brief illness was Covid19.

Complacency is a real danger with this one. So many people get very mild symptoms that the "it's just the flu" mindset propagates. Then people start to switch off mentally - stop washing their hands, cough all over people, attend gatherings when they're feeling a bit off. The people who suffer are the ones who don't get the mild symptoms - hospitalisation rates are super high, resources stretched thin. If too many need intensive care at the same time then people die through lack of doctors and respirators. These are avoidable deaths, but we can't rely on people being rational and staying home in isolation through altruism alone, so crowd restrictions become necessary. Because people are dumb.

The UK is being overly cautious at the moment (in comparison with other EU countries), saying that they can't move too quickly because behavioural science shows that they tire of following the rules after a while and start taking risks again. They want to avoid the public switching off during the peak and causing more issues. It's a strange approach IMO.

KBO leads to KDO?

https://www.sport24.co.za/OtherSpor...advice-on-olympics-cancellation-bach-20200312

Baal said:

It is a coronavirus. So was MERS. MERS thrived in a hot environment. It is unknown how this one will behave. Maybe we get lucky. The only way to control it is to stop congregating. It is not easy and requires draconian measures, like canceling the Olympics. Gobert felt good. Maybe the wife of the brother of the coach he infected dies. And if, for example, you have immune system issues, you need to be even more careful. If you didn't get tested you can't know if your brief illness was Covid19.

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Many people won't get tested and it will drive up the rates for the death rate. As the article I sent showed many are asymptomatic. So the virus is not going to have good statistics that reflect the truth about the disease.

If you are in a risk category or you take care of someone in a risk category, then of course you should take extra precautions. If you aren't a smoker or diabetic or old aged, then maybe you really shouldn't be going to the Olympics or moving around people who do. Minimizing risk is not the same as preventing death.

Finally, as far as I know, MERS didn't do that well in heat either. It was seasonal though as yoass pointed out, it all depended on what kinds of seasons and how long people ot in those seasons stayed in air conditioning.