Caronavirus & Tokyo 2020

brokenball · Feb 21, 2020

The WHO is a political organization. It has kowtowed to the Chinese government. I have no respect for the WHO.
The 2% death rate is not accurate but it seems to vary depending on where you are and what kind of care is available. I said above that one must compare outcomes which is survivors to deaths. Then you will see the death rate is much higher. Also, the crematoriums in Wuhan are running 24/7 with 4 times the normal activity. This does not correlate with the official Chinese claims.

China is also cracking down on any negative reporting on how it is handling the virus.

Baal should explain what R0 or R naught is and how it is used to compute the spread of a virus. I know he has access to this type of data or those that know.

I can do the math/simulation if provided good information. What I do know is that you are being kept in the dark and lied to. Even some of the doctors on YouTube are interpreting the data incorrectly.

So far I think we are screwed if isolation breaks down.

Baal · Feb 21, 2020

As of today about 16,000 people have been reported to have cleared the virus entirely from their system vs. about 2200 or so who died. I tend to trust those numbers. As best as anyone can tell, the death rate is higher in China. About 75,000 have been infected but that number is almost certainly in underestimate according to some epidemiologists. Maybe a big underestimate. But those are the best numbers available. I'm in no position to judge their accuracy. Some people have very minor symptoms.

I dont think we know R yet

Bad news, cases growing in South Korea, and 8 cases in Iran.

Again, I'm not a virologist or epidemiologist. But I'm not making plans to go live in the dessert.

Junting · Feb 21, 2020

The situation of virus in South Korea seems to be getting worse. Before Tokyo 2020, we should first worry about WTTTC in Busan...

zeio · Feb 21, 2020

There's this superspreader in Daegu, Korea(not that far away from Busan) infecting more than 40 people and over 1000 who have come into contact have to be quarantined as a result.

Study-areas-in-South-Korea-Seoul-Daegu-Gwangju-and-Busan.png

Baal · Feb 21, 2020

Junting said:
The situation of virus in South Korea seems to be getting worse. Before Tokyo 2020, we should first worry about WTTTC in Busan...

The Olympics brings in a couple of orders of magnitude more people in one place compared to WTTC. That worries me.

Vlad Celler · Feb 21, 2020

China Open , Kopea Open...

brokenball · Feb 21, 2020

Baal said:
As of today about 16,000 people have been reported to have cleared the virus entirely from their system vs. about 2200 or so who died.

That means 2200/(16000+2200) have died. That means 12% have died. The infected are just awaiting which outcome they will fall into. That is much more than 2%
The media, doctors and governments are lying.
I have said many times. I am very good at analyzing things. It doesn't seem to make much difference what it is. Just give me the numbers.

BTW, I am pretty sure Baal work in an area in SE Houston that is a medical area. There is a light rail that runs through the area. One can see the workers commuting in their medical garb. Normally one thinks of Houston as being a center for oil companies but it is also a medical a center.

langel · Feb 21, 2020

Its not about lying, its about personal critical reading and thinking.
And its about social psychology and the impact of the mass media information on it.
At the same time there is enough information and analysis on the subject, that are available for everyone interested.

For example this:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Vlad Celler · Feb 21, 2020

[h=1]Gottlieb: Japan appears to be on the cusp of a large coronavirus outbreak[/h]

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/02/18/coronavirus-outbreak-gottlieb-public-health-squawk-box.html

zeio · Feb 21, 2020

brokenball said:
I have said many times. I am very good at analyzing things. It doesn't seem to make much difference what it is. Just give me the numbers.

https://www.who.int/csr/sars/archive/2003_05_07a/en/

Many factors complicate efforts to calculate a case fatality ratio while an outbreak is still evolving. Deaths from SARS typically occur after several weeks of illness. Full recovery may take even longer. While an epidemic is still evolving, only some of the individuals affected by the disease will have died or recovered. Only at the end of an epidemic can an absolute value be calculated, taking into account total deaths, total recoveries and people lost to follow-up. Calculating case fatality as the number of deaths reported divided by the number of cases reported irrespective of the time elapsed since they became ill gives an underestimate of the true case fatality ratio.

One method of overcoming this difficulty is to calculate the case fatality ratio using only those cases whose final outcome – died or recovered – is known. However, this method, when applied before an outbreak is over, gives an overestimate because the average time from illness onset to death for SARS is shorter than the average time from illness onset to recovery.

drunix80 · Feb 21, 2020

zeio said:
There's this superspreader in Daegu, Korea(not that far away from Busan) infecting more than 40 people and over 1000 who have come into contact have to be quarantined as a result.

They are saying Daegu will become the next Wuhan. At this rate , it is highly likely WTTC will be called off.

Baal · Feb 21, 2020

brokenball said:
That means 2200/(16000+2200) have died. That means 12% have died. The infected are just awaiting which outcome they will fall into. That is much more than 2%
The media, doctors and governments are lying.
I have said many times. I am very good at analyzing things. It doesn't seem to make much difference what it is. Just give me the numbers.

BTW, I am pretty sure Baal work in an area in SE Houston that is a medical area. There is a light rail that runs through the area. One can see the workers commuting in their medical garb. Normally one thinks of Houston as being a center for oil companies but it is also a medical a center.

No, there are a bunch of people with the virus (more than 70,000). Among those as of a day ago we know absolute outcome for around around 18,000, and around 2,000 died, 16,000 completely cleared the virus. We will know the outcomes for more of the people each day. Death rate wont be 12%. A lot of people who still harbor the virus are not going to die but could still spread it. Around 80% of cases are classified as mild.

Still a lot of unknowns.

Yes, the Texas Medical Center in Houston is huge. Dozens of institutions. About 180,000 people work at it iif you include everyone from carpenters and IT specialists to doctors and nurses and scientists.

Baal · Feb 21, 2020

langel said:
Its not about lying, its about personal critical reading and thinking.
And its about social psychology and the impact of the mass media information on it.
At the same time there is enough information and analysis on the subject, that are available for everyone interested.

For example this:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

I have been keeping an eye on this one. Also Nature and New England Journal of Medicine websites.

Jacky Kwok · Feb 21, 2020

World Table Tennis Championships update amidst COVID-19

21 Feb 2020

The International Table Tennis Federation (ITTF) has just been informed of the first confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Busan, Korea Republic, the host city for the Hana Bank 2020 World Team Table Tennis Championships to be held between 22 – 29 March 2020.

Following breaking news of the first confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Busan, the ITTF has decided to postpone the First Stage draw for the Hana Bank 2020 World Team Table Tennis Championships, which was scheduled to take place tomorrow, Saturday 22nd February 2020 in Busan.

On Saturday there will be an emergency contingency meeting between the ITTF Senior Management, the Korea Table Tennis Association (KTTA) and the city of Busan representatives to further discuss the extraordinary situation. Following the meeting, the status of the event will be discussed by the ITTF Executive Committee.

The ITTF has been conducting a site inspection this week in Busan, including discussions with KTTA on how to safeguard everyone’s health and safety at the world’s biggest international table tennis event.

The ITTF and KTTA are taking advice from the World Health Organization (WHO) and working with the Korean government to put in place the most robust health and safety measures.

The ITTF and KTTA are continuing to monitor the situation closely and will provide further updates when more information comes to hand.

https://www.ittf.com/2020/02/21/busan-building-world-team-table-tennis-championships/

Takkyu_wa_inochi · Feb 21, 2020

This stuff is really scary. Its clearly out of control and Japanese authorities incompetence is beyond imagination.

The quarantine protocol on the boat was amateurish, resulting in contaminating hundreds if not thousands from only 1 patient. As videos and photos circulate now, and even on Japanese TV, the protocol is being mocked.

Also, they just released hundreds of passengers whose condition was deemed "safe" and who were tested negative for long enough... 2 Australians and 1 israeli were tested positive upon arrival in their countries

How many Japanese released are carrying the virus and have already spread it to their families and anyone they've interacted with ???

It is totally unbelievable behaviour. It had been documented from China that they were cases of people without symptoms and testing negative for more than 3 weeks, but because 2 weeks was an "average" they decided to release those people anyway as quickly as possible as some eggheads in Yohohama were tired of the situation and press coverage

it makes no doubt for me that the virus is already endemic here and will spreads to millions of infected. Japanese cities will be locked down like in China and the death toll may be very heavy and the economic impact huge.

igorponger · Feb 21, 2020

https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antarctica

The only place for mankind to survive.

Dream2K · Feb 21, 2020

igorponger said:
https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antarctica

The only place for mankind to survive.

as long as they don't dig up frozen remains. watch "The Thing" (1982).

Der_Echte · Feb 21, 2020

So many are scared of this virus and are totally not scared about other things that ar ed a much larger immediate and persistent long term threat.

Very low on the list of killers is drunk driving deaths about 1000 a month in USA alone an no national panic for 40 years running. Used to be 2000 a month back then.

30,000 deaths from sepsis each month in USA alone... a related cause of death in this virus... and no national or global panic over that... and this is 10x the killer Corona is.

Preventing corona or any virus from big time incubating is easy business with a healthy well functioning immune system, but majority of people immune system are constantly under pressure with bad rest, poor nutrition, over exertion, poor personal choices (smoking), and poisons in body from water food and environment. So we harvest what we plant.

There are a number of easy things people can and should do to improve immune system function, yet many simply do not. They are mostly related to rest, nutrition, hydration, stress management, physical condition, mineralization and mental state. There are also simple foods and supplements that support a stronger immune system that many never take care to pay attention.

Prevention and early intervention are key. Soap and water are under rated and not used so much. Over reliance on bacterial killer has complicated things with bacteria.

It is easy for an immune system to be comprised even with just a few days of inattention or neglect or bad situation.

If someone has neglected the things that help immune system and does a physical and mental stress like international travel, then so easy to catch virus and incubate. Poor to zero sleep while seated for 24 hrs and so many so close with same air really increases odds of catching as airborne and physical transfer.

Every time I deployed, I got 5 to 8 imminuization shots, has to be standing or sitting for 2 to 3 days carried hundreds of pounds of gear around and then got into tents with hundreds... no shyg sherlock got sick every time the first 2 weeks of a deployment en mass.

Sent from my SM-N970U using Tapatalk

Takkyu_wa_inochi · Feb 21, 2020

@Der Echte

the CURRENT numbers with Coronavirus are indeed not big compared to other risk factors.
the fear is that the numbers is growing EXPONENTIALLY and no one can tell where it will stop. Past experience with other outbreaks (ZIKA, MERS, SARS) could suggest fears are misplaced and that the virus will mutate / lose its virulence before infecting hundreds of millions or billions, but actually nobody can guarantee that.

Actually all epidemic experts have been saying for YEARS that despite our formidable technology, humanity has not reached the point where it is immune to the outbreak of any virus and that something like the big plague or the spanish flu can still happen to us. It wasn't the case with ZIKA or SARS and it may not be the case THIS TIME with Coronavirus, but its likely that finally we are hit with such a disaster, because as we can see from what is happening, given how people travel all around the world, a virus born in China will reach the whole world give it a few weeks.

This virus is very infectious and one single person can give it without any symptoms to tens in a few days and hundreds in a few weeks, and those hundreds of person can contaminate hundreds of other persons etc.. Given there is no effective existing treatment the only hope is that it behaves like recent big outbreaks and stops by itself its exponential growth. The only solution the Chinese has found is to lock down hundreds of millions of people. isn't that telling ?

I heard Pr Scott Gottlieb say his estimate for the deadliness of this virus to be lower than the current estimate of 2%, down to 0.5% but thats still 5x more than flu, and more importantly he says it could infect 75% of the planet if it continues spreading...

Also not everybody is equal vs the virus. US given how big it is may be better equipped against the virus. Densely populated countries, especially in 3rd world will be facing a very hard time.

Another unknown is that the virus may not be very deadly on a isolated case. But a concentration of virus like you have in a widespread epidemic might be more deadly. As we can see, the main young victims of the virus are doctors who were working in hospitals. Outside them, the virus victims have mostly been the elderly, but if the virus is more prevalent, it may be the case that no one is safe.

Baal · Feb 22, 2020

Takkyu_wa_inochi said:
@Der Echte

the CURRENT numbers with Coronavirus are indeed not big compared to other risk factors.
the fear is that the numbers is growing EXPONENTIALLY and no one can tell where it will stop. Past experience with other outbreaks (ZIKA, MERS, SARS) could suggest fears are misplaced and that the virus will mutate / lose its virulence before infecting hundreds of millions or billions, but actually nobody can guarantee that.

Actually all epidemic experts have been saying for YEARS that despite our formidable technology, humanity has not reached the point where it is immune to the outbreak of any virus and that something like the big plague or the spanish flu can still happen to us. It wasn't the case with ZIKA or SARS and it may not be the case THIS TIME with Coronavirus, but its likely that finally we are hit with such a disaster, because as we can see from what is happening, given how people travel all around the world, a virus born in China will reach the whole world give it a few weeks.

This virus is very infectious and one single person can give it without any symptoms to tens in a few days and hundreds in a few weeks, and those hundreds of person can contaminate hundreds of other persons etc.. Given there is no effective existing treatment the only hope is that it behaves like recent big outbreaks and stops by itself its exponential growth. The only solution the Chinese has found is to lock down hundreds of millions of people. isn't that telling ?

I heard Pr Scott Gottlieb say his estimate for the deadliness of this virus to be lower than the current estimate of 2%, down to 0.5% but thats still 5x more than flu, and more importantly he says it could infect 75% of the planet if it continues spreading...

Also not everybody is equal vs the virus. US given how big it is may be better equipped against the virus. Densely populated countries, especially in 3rd world will be facing a very hard time.

Another unknown is that the virus may not be very deadly on a isolated case. But a concentration of virus like you have in a widespread epidemic might be more deadly. As we can see, the main young victims of the virus are doctors who were working in hospitals. Outside them, the virus victims have mostly been the elderly, but if the virus is more prevalent, it may be the case that no one is safe.

Actually cases outside China are growing linearly, not exponentially. Big difference. This is true for data from China too but who knows what to make of numbers from there. Too soon to know for sure what is going to happen. It might or might not be as bad as that. Your worst case scenario is possible but not certain.

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