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    1. Top | #41
      Janard is offline
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      TOKYO - Japan is bracing for the coronavirus outbreak to worsen, as Health Minister Katsunobu Kato on Sunday (Feb 16) pointed to several untraceable cases and an emergency government meeting of experts noted that the onset is likely only "at an early stage".

      This comes as Japan is already facing a headache over the Diamond Princess cruise liner, off Yokohama. Another 70 cases were confirmed on Sunday, bringing the total infected on the ship to 355 as governments began making plans to evacuate their nationals marooned on the vessel.


      On land, the number of infections has more than doubled since Thursday from 29 to 59 on Sunday night. Experts urged measures on the basis of wide human-to-human transmission.

      "We are now in a new phase and must anticipate a spread of infections. Our priority is to build up the medical system so that people, especially those with pre-existing conditions, will not fall gravely ill and die," Mr Kato said.


      World Health Organisation flu expert Nikki Shindo was quoted as saying by the Nikkei: "Besides China, Japan is the only country where there have been infection cases of which transmission routes cannot be traced."


      This comes as new cases have been confirmed from Hokkaido to Okinawa since Thursday. At least four have left authorities bewildered over how, or where, they might have been infected.


      They are a Wakayama surgeon, who has since been linked to four other cases, a Chiba man in his 20s, a Hokkaido man in his 50s, and a Nagoya man in his 60s who fell sick after returning from holiday in Hawaii.
      Let's see how things develop from now on.

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      Vlad Celler (02-17-2020)

    3. Top | #42
      Takkyu_wa_inochi is offline
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      I am in Japan and totally spooked. 99 new cases on the boat, 70 of which have NO SYMPTOMS at all

      Do you understand what that means ? People can look absolutely healthy but they carry the virus and can transmit to anyone around, and they won't be aware of anything for several weeks before they get the first symptoms themselves.

      How many of such carriers are already roaming free ? just one of them can transmit it to 10s or 100s of people during the incubation period. And there you would have massive exponential growth of the virus...

      I am afraid that within a few weeks the situation will look exactly the same here than in China. And a few weeks later the same thing all over the world.

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      Vlad Celler (02-17-2020)

    5. Top | #43
      Vlad Celler is offline
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      Quote Originally Posted by Takkyu_wa_inochi View Post
      I am in Japan and totally spooked. 99 new cases on the boat, 70 of which have NO SYMPTOMS at all

      Do you understand what that means ? People can look absolutely healthy but they carry the virus and can transmit to anyone around, and they won't be aware of anything for several weeks before they get the first symptoms themselves.

      How many of such carriers are already roaming free ? just one of them can transmit it to 10s or 100s of people during the incubation period. And there you would have massive exponential growth of the virus...

      I am afraid that within a few weeks the situation will look exactly the same here than in China. And a few weeks later the same thing all over the world.
      Awful ... Japan and China - my sincere desire to survive this misfortune with the least consequences ....

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      Takkyu_wa_inochi (02-17-2020)

    7. Top | #44
      MaLin2.0 is offline
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      Quote Originally Posted by Takkyu_wa_inochi View Post
      I am in Japan and totally spooked. 99 new cases on the boat, 70 of which have NO SYMPTOMS at all

      Do you understand what that means ? People can look absolutely healthy but they carry the virus and can transmit to anyone around, and they won't be aware of anything for several weeks before they get the first symptoms themselves.

      How many of such carriers are already roaming free ? just one of them can transmit it to 10s or 100s of people during the incubation period. And there you would have massive exponential growth of the virus...

      I am afraid that within a few weeks the situation will look exactly the same here than in China. And a few weeks later the same thing all over the world.
      I'm in Australia, they have taken good measures to keep things safe, I am aware is taking longer to detect and not everyone gets impacted, they could get the virus however their immune system might be strong it won't impact at all but great concern is that they are still a carrier and will pass it on and few might not have as strong of immune system.

      Tokyo officials seem to think everything will go ahead as planned. Seem confident about it too, but they don't speak for majority of the population.

    8. Top | #45
      Simas is offline
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      I've heard that some anti virus drug cocktails tend to work (anti Aids and smthe else...), but you shouldn't count for a vaccine any time soon due to clinical trials take some time...

      my two cents worth of opinion: the problem is serious, but because of media attention and following measures taken by governments and people, the total lock-down policy taken by China (praise for that) the virus shouldn't become "viral" worldwide and will die out as other did... it's not the beginning of 20th century with crazy Spanish Flu stuff..

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      Takkyu_wa_inochi (02-18-2020)

    10. Top | #46
      Takkyu_wa_inochi is offline
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      @Simas I was panicky at first but so far the numbers are not growing exponentially in japan, but difficult to tell in the very early stages. in 1 month we will have more clues to form a better opinon

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      Simas (02-20-2020)

    12. Top | #47
      yoass is offline
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      Quote Originally Posted by zeio View Post
      Given its 85% similarity to SARS, it will likely die out once summer comes as the virus has trouble surviving above a certain temperature.
      Mmm. One hemisphere's summer is another one's winter.

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      Vlad Celler (02-18-2020)

    14. Top | #48
      Dream2K is offline
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      All I need to know is that 542 on the Diamond Princess have been infected so far to conclude that this virus can't be contained. The best hope is that one will get infected with an attenuated form and/or that some effective drugs are found soon. My bet is that this virus is evolving rapidly and even now there may be variants circulating that are less deadly. But it is way too early to tell how this epidemic will play out.

      "Tokyo marathon cancels mass race over coronavirus scare"

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      Takkyu_wa_inochi (02-18-2020)

    16. Top | #49
      Takkyu_wa_inochi is offline
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      @dream2K
      yes its absolutely scary isn't it ? we have not enough data yet in Japan alas. For example, only in a few weeks we can tell how many of the 542 (and counting) infected will have died from the virus.

    17. Top | #50
      Dr Evil is offline
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      We still don't know enough about COVID-19 to make good predictions. Case fatality rate is unlikely to be much higher than 2.5% and might be much lower. Worst case isn't as bad as SARS (10%) or MERS (35%), but worse than the seasonal flu (0.1%). Fairly safe to say that healthy people are highly unlikely to die from this, and most probably will have mild or no symptoms. Of course a 2.5% case fatality rate could still produce grievous losses in regions where the virus becomes epidemic, but the impact on the vast majority of people would be from panic rather than directly from the virus itself.

    18. Top | #51
      igorponger is offline
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      We need every Pusan WTTC visitor vaccinated, and we have no adequate vaccine so far. Everyone is something like a delayed-release bomb, indeed

    19. Top | #52
      Der_Echte is online now
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      The virus death toll as published has not yet begun to reach 10% of the month death rate of SEPSIS, which is where an infection occurs in body and immune system sends an overpowering response to shuts down major organs. 30,000 a month in USA alone die from it.

      Wouldn't a reasonable person be 10x more concerned with sepsis, that has been killing at this rate for years on end in our own country? Wouldn't a reasonable person knowing this not be so in fear of the C.V. in the proportion that is going around ?
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    20. Top | #53
      Dream2K is offline
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      In February 1957, a new influenza A (H2N2) virus emerged in East Asia, triggering a pandemic (“Asian Flu”). This H2N2 virus was comprised of three different genes from an H2N2 virus that originated from an avian influenza A virus, including the H2 hemagglutinin and the N2 neuraminidase genes. It was first reported in Singapore in February 1957, Hong Kong in April 1957, and in coastal cities in the United States in summer 1957. The estimated number of deaths was 1.1 million worldwide and 116,000 in the United States.

    21. Top | #54
      Baal is offline
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      Death rate will be higher in China for two reasons. 1. The Chinese system is completely overwhelmed and the kind of intensive care that can help people survive just can't be done for all of the critically ill people. 2. About 80% of adult Chinese males smoke, many heavily, and this will increase vulnerabity to a virus that kills through respiratory inflammation.

      Still, if I was King of the World I would cancel the Olympics.

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    23. Top | #55
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      A respected Japanese virologist on Wednesday said if the Tokyo Olympics were tomorrow, the games probably couldn’t be held because of the fast-spreading virus from Wuhan, China.
      https://www.japantimes.co.jp/sports/.../#.Xk2NOCMxmUk

    24. Top | #56
      brokenball is offline
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      Once COVID-19 spreads to a third world nation it is all over. I am willing to bet that those that say 60% of the population will get COVID-19 are right.

      The spanish flu kill 50 million people and 675,000 in the US.

      I have my truck camper and will go into the hills/forest if COVID-19 arrives here. If I prepare correctly I should be able to spend a month easily, maybe two in the sticks. Where I camp there is no cell or TV service, electricity and water unless you want to climb down a canyon.

      Weather may play a big part but if warm weather doesn't slow or stop the virus then I think the 2020 olympics are finished.

      I find that WION on YouTube give pretty good information if you can understand the Indian accent.
      NTD is good too.
      ARIRANG
      I find the governments and MSM are not willing to tell the truth yet.

      One thing that gets report wrong is the percentage of deaths. They always report the ratio of deaths to infected.
      That is wrong. They should report the deaths to survivors. The number of survivors are much fewer.
      In other words, the media lies.

    25. Top | #57
      Dream2K is offline
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      2 have died from the Diamond Princess already. I agree with Takkyu_wa_inochi that the ratio from the ship could clear things up soon.

    26. Top | #58
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      COVID-19 begins to spread in Korea too. So the closer question will be on the WTTC.

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    28. Top | #59
      Der_Echte is online now
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      Korean govt was already aggressive in the early days of the timeline, now I bet it is 10x crazier.

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    29. Top | #60
      Baal is offline
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      Quote Originally Posted by Dream2K View Post
      2 have died from the Diamond Princess already. I agree with Takkyu_wa_inochi that the ratio from the ship could clear things up soon.
      Based on Chinese data WHO is still estimating a death rate of right around 2%. Quite a bit less than SARS. A whole lot more than influenza. But lots still not known.

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