Caronavirus & Tokyo 2020

Baal needs to add a new rule to his list of rules.
#?? No wiping your hand on the table to dry your hand!
I always thought this was disgusting.
It is bad enough we handle the same balls.

brokenball said:

Baal needs to add a new rule to his list of rules.
#?? No wiping your hand on the table to dry your hand!
I always thought this was disgusting.
It is bad enough we handle the same balls.

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Does Ovtcharov still put the ball in his mouth to clean it?

Still a chance for the Olympics, but they need to be making contingency plans at this point. Also some chance of an impact on other upcoming major events like the US presidential election in November. On the bright side the vast majority of people who catch the virus will be fine.

UpSideDownCarl said:

Does Ovtcharov still put the ball in his mouth to clean it?

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This is how you freak out your opponent at the Olympics. Coughing and sweating profusely may work too.

I don't think the Tokyo Olympics are going to happen.
As much as I like to debunk claims by the TT manufacturers, I don't think that will be necessary now.
TT clubs/halls will be closing soon. The TT manufacturer's sales will drop too as a result.
If you still think that choosing the right rubber or paddle and how to loop under spin balls is a high priority then you have your priorities misplaced.

One of my practice partners got back from Nanjing about 2 weeks ago. That was before Nanjing was is lock down and before the US stopped allowing flights from China. He is in a self quarantine still. He must be going nuts because he could play in Nanjing and is not playing here for the time being.

Think of the big picture. So much of what we buy comes from China. As a consumer you probably don't give a s___ but if you manufacture products using Chinese parts you do. I will talk to my purchasing agent tomorrow to plan ahead. Maybe make a preemptive purchase of parts that come from China.

Never under estimate the incompetence of governments and bureaucrats.
Never trust the main stream media. The MSM may be right sometimes but all they care about is profits.

I just dug our my 3M mask. It is in good working shape plus I have 2 extra filters. I need to buy a pair of eye googles. I have plenty of food. I can hunker down for a long time at home then go to my truck camper for even more time. I bought my mask to filter out pollution in China.

I own a business. We sell to China. Obviously the sales have slowed.

I am also a moderator on a Chinese servo control forum. Usually there are many questions. The questions have slowed too because the Chinese people under lock down have more important things to think about. BTW, I was appointed moderator and the forum made a big deal about it. I am internally know in my field.

This is going to get serious. Baal said there is no good news. I agree. I think the news will get must worse.

Hey guys, I am preparing . I have weapons, food, water and plans but a virus is a equal opportunity death dealer and doesn't give a f___ who you are.

My biggest mistake so far is not buying gold when it was last at $1050/once but you can't eat or drink gold.

the virus mortality is much worse than the headline 3% that you can see on such sites like https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

because
- China is underreporting
- Iran shows a much much higher death ratio
- Dead / (Dead + Recovered) is a more significant stat
- many people have the virus and no symptoms hence we jump to the conclusion that the virus is not so dangerous BUT actually they WILL develop symptoms LATER and enter the stats later
- its been documented that you can get sick more than once and the second time is more deadly than the 1st time.
- the more the virus is around the deadlier it is. Thats why young doctors in their 30s in China died while where the virus is more sparse mostly old people die. Think of a tree, if there is only one bug eating one leaf, the tree is not in danger, but if there are plenty of bugs its gonna die.

We've never seen something as contagious as this. Thus, governments are not prepared and not acting quick enough. 1 person on a boat makes 700 sick. 1 woman in Korea infected thousands of people... even Ebola is less contagious. Because one can carry the virus and spread it without having symptoms for as much as 3 weeks, its very likely there are hundreds or thousands of carriers in your country infecting hundreds or thousands everyday, and the contamination growth is exponential, but will be shown in stats with a huge delay.

There is a lot of evidence that this was a biological weapon which escaped the Chinese lab in Wuhan by accident; It was designed to spread as much as possible and to kill as many as possible. Comparing it to seasonal flu is absolute nonsense.

I want to be optimistic, but there is little to rejoice. I am not going out at all, i am despaired that my wife doesn't listen to me. i can easily see the fate awaiting us.

I like TT a lot, to have fun and make jokes, and contribute to this forum about TT, but sorry, I think the only useful thing i can do is make you aware of how deadly and dangerous this stuff is , and invite you to prepare yourself;

We've all been teleported into a nightmare. Life as we lived so far doesn't exist more. We're in a life and death situation. There's plenty of videos on Twitter of whats going on in China.

Police is now shooting on people trying to get out of their homes so they don't spread the virus. They are also barricading some buildings which are too much infested with the virus. Food is becoming scarce in Wuhan...

When SHTF, you can also expect chaos, pillage, riots and stuff like that.

I'd love to be wrong on all that of course. I strongly wish and pray I am. I hope God(s) pity us all.

Hahaha...

It'd be nice if the US and Europe could get their acts together, as if Crypto AG is not hypocritical enough.

https://asiatimes.com/2020/02/chinas-bioweapon-spy-story-that-never-was/

It should be noted, that China is no stranger to epidemics. Its history is riddled with terrible contagions, all natural occurrences.
...
There is another troubling issue, however. As a bioweapon, Covid-19 doesn’t quite cut it – it’s just not that effective.

Covid-19 is too strong initially, and not deadly enough in the long run to be an effective bioweapon. A bioweapon should start off slow, spread quickly and kill off its multitude of victims weeks later – impossible to stop. As lethal as Covid-19 is, it doesn’t work as something an evil scientist would dream up.

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You see, 瘟疫, the Chinese term for pandemic, can be traced back to over 2000 years ago. The English word pandemic didn't enter the vocabulary until mid-17th century. People even use the derived term 發瘟(to have a plague) to curse other people to this day.

i didn't suggest Covid-19 was the ultimate bio-weapon. I believe it was an intermediate product between a natural virus and a final version of a bio-weapon.

designing an atom bomb is rather simple. everybody knows the chain reaction involved.

A bio-virus is experimental at this stage and developing a bio-weapon involves toying a lot with viruses

Thanks god, Covid-19 isn't the final version, but it can already do a shitload of harm.... in a worst case scenario tens or even hundreds of millions of victims

brokenball said:

Baal needs to add a new rule to his list of rules.
#?? No wiping your hand on the table to dry your hand!
I always thought this was disgusting.
It is bad enough we handle the same balls.

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Quite reasonable idea of yours. Table surface may well serve a hotbed for epidemics.
Likewise, the Racket Control personnel should wear protective gloves and face masks. No carelessness, no jocularity, please.

If Igor is being sarcastic, this would be a totally epic post.

Sent from my SM-N970U using Tapatalk

In the US, many of the clubs have assistant coaches that come / go from / to China (quite a few of them are on temporary visas). I notice that attendance in some such clubs is now a bit lower, particularly among grown-ups. Perhaps, only anecdotal. One can never rationalize fear.

Der_Echte said:

If Igor is being sarcastic, this would be a totally epic post.

Sent from my SM-N970U using Tapatalk

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Except that he is being entirely serious.

Look, the situation is not good but this kind of fear mongering is not helpful.

I sometimes wonder if Igor is a bot except who cares enough about TT to make one?

Takkyu_wa_inochi said:

the virus mortality is much worse than the headline 3% ... We've never seen something as contagious as this... There is a lot of evidence that this was a biological weapon which escaped the Chinese lab in Wuhan by accident...

I'd love to be wrong on all that of course.

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Congratulations, you're wrong on all of that.

We still don't have enough data to be sure, but best estimates of the death rate are under 2.5%. It's possible it will turn out to be higher, but probably not very much. It's far more likely to be lower, perhaps even 1% or less. It's almost certain that we have a significant undercount of subclinical cases. That's why calculations like deaths/(deaths+survivors) are misleading; most of the survivors never get counted because they never get sick enough to bother seeing a doctor.

The super-contagious bioweapons rumor is complete nonsense. There are many viruses more contagious than this one, zero sequence data that suggest it's been genetically manipulated, and strong evidence that it's a natural relative of SARS and other betacoronaviruses. The only reason I even address this is because I think you're genuinely scared and not a troll. Ignore the trolls.

The only unusual thing about this virus is that it's new to us. So nobody has any immunity. The fact that it's dangerous in a small percentage of cases (like many other familiar respiratory viruses) is magnified by the sheer number of patients we're likely to see. That's the whole story, and it's bad enough without any exaggeration and fear mongering.

1% could lead up to 80M dead - that's WWII level!

Dr Evil said:

Congratulations, you're wrong on all of that.

We still don't have enough data to be sure, but best estimates of the death rate are under 2.5%. It's possible it will turn out to be higher, but probably not very much. It's far more likely to be lower, perhaps even 1% or less. It's almost certain that we have a significant undercount of subclinical cases. That's why calculations like deaths/(deaths+survivors) are misleading; most of the survivors never get counted because they never get sick enough to bother seeing a doctor.

The super-contagious bioweapons rumor is complete nonsense. There are many viruses more contagious than this one, zero sequence data that suggest it's been genetically manipulated, and strong evidence that it's a natural relative of SARS and other betacoronaviruses. The only reason I even address this is because I think you're genuinely scared and not a troll. Ignore the trolls.

The only unusual thing about this virus is that it's new to us. So nobody has any immunity. The fact that it's dangerous in a small percentage of cases (like many other familiar respiratory viruses) is magnified by the sheer number of patients we're likely to see. That's the whole story, and it's bad enough without any exaggeration and fear mongering.

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Exactly. Too much misinformation.. And yes, he was wrong on all of that.

There are a lot of reasons why the death rate for this is high in China, one being the very high proportion of the population who smoke heavily. If anything death rate is lower than we think if significant numbers of infected people have mild or no symptoms.

BUT, the one thing that is legitimately scary is the percentage of cases where people are seriously or critically ill. Right now that is 20% of cases who need hospitalization or even intensive care. Lets say that overestimates by double, then even 10% is scary. Let's hope the existing antiviral meds work.

I hope they cancel or postpone Olympics and WTTC.

And wash your hands a lot.

Well, again, we don't have enough data.
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

but for example Iran its 61 cases and 12 dead, so much more than 2.5%

You have mentioned some biases that i had, but there are some biases as well in your analysis that I have mentioned already. If people are sick with little symptoms, there is no guarantee they won't get even more sick later. Actually it is known that if you are cured, and get out of the stats, you can fall sick AGAIN, and die more easily the 2nd time.
While you're not so sick, you can also transmit the virus to anyone around you.

also you seem not to be worried for the large majority (around 80%) of sick people with mild or little symptoms. But I can't see these cases as being dismissed in the stats. When you have regular flu, after 3 or 4 days you start to get better, and 1 week you're cured. We are having many many cases where it doesn't get worse (yet) but it doesn't get better as well, so there is absolutely no guarantee and not enough evidence these people won't ever get more sick. Actually there is evidence of the contrary happening. (people who got infected AND got cured THEN get sick again and die)

The QUANTITY of virus absorbed is important also for how severe the damage so if the virus is more widespread, it will become more dangerous, and we KNOW its going to be more widespread.

The death rate is not the same in an environment where the virus is only hitting 0.01% of the population and you receive full treatment as when its hitting 10% of the population and you're in an emergency facility along hundreds or thousands of other ill patients [and getting sicker if you were not so sick] and there is not enough medication for everyone.

At this stage, we only know that the virus is probably more widespread than reported anywhere. because the more we look for it (by testing) the more it is found. The stats are low in Japan because they didn't even test everyone on that ****ing boat , not even the workers before they got out !!! We also know that one person can easily transmit it to hundreds of people before even knowing he is himself sick; How exactly can you prevent that from spreading out if everybody is not self-quarantined ????

Then you believe what you want,
but there are reports and videos of various credibility from China that (non-exhaustive list)
- Police is beating people going out of their homes
- People are barricaded in their home by the police
- Activity from crematoriums as seen from satellite or as inferred by interviews don't match at all the official data.
- Police and Army troops are coming from all China to Wuhan (WTF is going on there ?)
- [tinfoil ?] even heard that workers are so overwhelmed they sometimes burn live bodies along with dead bodies... True or Not gives an idea of how affected mentally people are over there.

I think people are suffering from the "NORMALCY BIAS". Check on wiki to see what it means. but to simplify: being a boiling frog, or a Thanksgiving Turkey.

When you panic and you're wrong, your only downside is to be mocked, you survive and life continues as usual.

If you don't panic and you're wrong, you just die GAME OVER

On the optimistic side, *IF* the Chinese are reporting the true figures from Wuhan, then I HAVE TO AGREE that things are getting under control, the number of new cases is not increasing exponentially anymore. So it seems their strong quarantine policy is working. Thats what it takes to battle the spreading of the virus, but absolutely no other country is taking the stuff seriously enough yet, and everyday counts because of the exponential nature of the virus growth

Now i don't trust the Chinese government at all. and i am not optimistic, but i hope I am wrong

I actuallly don’t believe panic to be a beneficial response.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vaccine/607000/

The Harvard epidemiology professor Marc Lipsitch is exacting in his diction, even for an epidemiologist. Twice in our conversation he started to say something, then paused and said, “Actually, let me start again.” So it’s striking when one of the points he wanted to get exactly right was this: “I think the likely outcome is that it will ultimately not be containable.

One positive thing is that no one in my office (500ppl+) has been sick for the last few weeks, presumably because of the improved personal hygiene. At the moment a chance of seeing a person with virus is one in a million so I'll worry about it if I hear someone in my company gets it.

Wttc postponed https://www.ittf.com/2020/02/25/2020-world-table-tennis-championships-postponed-due-covid-19/