I am 15 years old, what is the chance of becoming a professional?

davizoosk · Apr 23, 2020

ajtatosmano2 said:
It is possible, it just depends on you. I would say train like 4*5 hours a week plus 3 hours one-on
-one with a coach. This is 23 hours, IMO it's enough if you are talented. If not, aim at 30-35 hours per week. The real challenge are the money and the schooling. You're 15 and being a full-time TT player you can't expect a stable income. The best if you can participate in a family business. Also, if you are in school and train to become a pro, you can forget your social life. Your team and clubmates will be your friends and you shouldn't start a serious romantic relationship, unless she's a professional too. It's harsh, but it's possible. On the other hand, if you want to become a semi-professional, someone who gets paid for playing but not as his main income, your job is much easier. Then it really depends on how talented you are, how good the coaches are and how can you manage your time. I am 21 and still want to become a semi-pro and I believe that I can become one.
If you decided that you want to take table tennis seriously, I highly recommend to set goals and start to share vids about you training and playing, as it creates pressure on you and helps maintaining a high standard during training.

thank you, i'm aiming 6 hours at the table, 1 hour of serve and 1 hour of physical. I have already established my schedules, I can participate in a family business when I finish high school and still train, my father and mother have an office, I will work there from 6 to 12am, I will arrive home around 1h30pm and I will train normally, there will be 3 or 2 days with a coach for 1 or 2 hours. About friends, I lost almost everyone after elementary school. one will do the multi ball training with me and I don’t have many friends, I think 6 at most. About the videos, I will create an instagram and post there. I already know that it will not be easy, motivation to train hard I have now, besides my father who does not let me give up, he says "if you started you have to finish".

UpSideDownCarl · Apr 23, 2020

Kontra said:
Michael Stich was always synonym to me that it's possible, even if you start bit later, but even him had some foundations from early stages of hiss life. Also, every sport in total, was bit "different" 30 years ago
Born on October 18, 1968, Stich came of age in Elmshorn, a suburb of Hamburg. Though he’d first started tennis at age six, for much of Stich’s childhood, tennis took a back seat to soccer. Tennis was something he played for fun, but not always with a particularly high level of engagement or even good manners. As Stich said years later, “I behaved really bad, and so everybody said, ‘O.K., that guy’s never going to win anything.’”

In the summer of 1985, though, the 16-year-old Stich was quite impressed to see Becker, a mere 11 months his elder, capture the Wimbledon men’s singles title. Becker’s landmark first major victory cascaded in the form of an inspirational shockwave. A year later, Stich had cast soccer aside and ascended the tennis rankings to become become Germany’s best junior.

Stich turned pro in 1988 and began to inch his way up the ranks. Who knew how far he could go? One major believer was Nikki Pilic, a former top ten pro who was also the German Davis Cup captain. As Pilic noted in 1991, “I said when Michael was 400 in the rankings that he had the potential to be in the top 50 . . . He is intelligent. He has great talent, good hands, good eye, great touch. Though he is big, he is not slow.”

I actually think, in almost any other sport, it is more possible than in TT. I do think it is still possible. But not quite as possible in TT. In some sports like baseball and tennis, there are notable times when a player who ultimately becomes a top level player, does not have that talent surface until their mid to late teens.

Can anyone think of an example of this in the last 25 years of TT?

I do know someone who started to play TT seriously at about 13 who became quite a high level player. But that person grew up with a tennis court (tennis not table tennis) in his back yard and the ability to take as much high level TT coaching as he liked where, as far as I know, money did not seem to be an obstacle. He fell a bit short of his expectations but he did get to a peak of 2700 (USATT) rating. But he had been playing racket sports since he was quite young even if he had not been playing Table Tennis. So, he had some things going for him from the start.

There are a few reasons it is harder to start later in TT than in most sports. I think the amount of technique as apposed to power that is required in TT, the amount of touch and feel, these are unique to TT and it is hard, without years of practice and training to develop those subtle skills that determine just precisely how you touch the ball.

Also, because of how close the opponent is, and how fast the ball can come back, this actually makes it fairly hard to cement good technique into muscle memory because every time you feel rushed, it encourages old bad habits to resurface.

Again, I do think it is still possible. It is just very hard in TT where it is still hard but not quite as hard in many other sports.

ajtatosmano2 · Apr 23, 2020

My clubmate started when he was 11 years old. Now he is 18, plays second league (he is over 75%) and just participated in his first world tour. Also know someone who played on 4th league level and a few years ago, when he was close to 60 years old his game skyrocketed and now plays 2nd league (though if I remember correctly he wins only 25% or so).

NextLevel · Apr 23, 2020

UpSideDownCarl said:
I actually think, in almost any other sport, it is more possible than in TT. I do think it is still possible. But not quite as possible in TT. In some sports like baseball and tennis, there are notable times when a player who ultimately becomes a top level player, does not have that talent surface until their mid to late teens.

Can anyone think of an example of this in the last 25 years of TT?

I do know someone who started to play TT seriously at about 13 who became quite a high level player. But that person grew up with a tennis court (tennis not table tennis) in his back yard and the ability to take as much high level TT coaching as he liked where, as far as I know, money did not seem to be an obstacle. He fell a bit short of his expectations but he did get to a peak of 2700 (USATT) rating. But he had been playing racket sports since he was quite young even if he had not been playing Table Tennis. So, he had some things going for him from the start.

There are a few reasons it is harder to start later in TT than in most sports. I think the amount of technique as apposed to power that is required in TT, the amount of touch and feel, these are unique to TT and it is hard, without years of practice and training to develop those subtle skills that determine just precisely how you touch the ball.

Also, because of how close the opponent is, and how fast the ball can come back, this actually makes it fairly hard to cement good technique into muscle memory because every time you feel rushed, it encourages old bad habits to resurface.

Again, I do think it is still possible. It is just very hard in TT where it is still hard but not quite as hard in many other sports.

I think the problem is processing the ball - it takes an immense amount of computational power to estimate spin and ball trajectory and I think it is hard to dedicate enough of the brain to doing this as you get older and then automate reactions to be instinctive. I don't think the problems would be as significant if spin was less of an issue in the sport.

zyu81 · Apr 23, 2020

ajtatosmano2 said:
My clubmate started when he was 11 years old. Now he is 18, plays second league (he is over 75%) and just participated in his first world tour. Also know someone who played on 4th league level and a few years ago, when he was close to 60 years old his game skyrocketed and now plays 2nd league (though if I remember correctly he wins only 25% or so).

To be fair Hungary is not really a table tennis powerhouse, probably less competitive than in Brazil

UpSideDownCarl · Apr 23, 2020

NextLevel said:
I think the problem is processing the ball - it takes an immense amount of computational power to estimate spin and ball trajectory and I think it is hard to dedicate enough of the brain to doing this as you get older and then automate reactions to be instinctive. I don't think the problems would be as significant if spin was less of an issue in the sport.

This is a great point.

Lula · Apr 23, 2020

Unmotivated?

davizoosk · Apr 23, 2020

Lula said:
Unmotivated?

no more

driversbeat · Apr 24, 2020

lol @ all the old men trying to crush the dreams of a young boy. I'm sure all of you had realistic career goals at 15. Give me a break.

@davizoosk: Now is the best time for you to invest all your time and energy into table tennis. Will you become a pro? Highly unlikely. But that doesn't mean that you can't benefit from devoting yourself to table tennis for a couple of years. So what if you can't make a career out of it? So many of us on this forum would love to have the luxury of spending 6 hours at the table everyday. Do it while you can. There might never be a time in your life again when you are this passionate about table tennis, and all you'll be left with is regret thinking that you should have tried harder.

tomahawk11 · Apr 24, 2020

I only started when I was 24 and I've been playing for 2 years now. Before I found table tennis I was in a very bad place, but now table tennis brings me joy in life. I also have the ambition to go pro, even though no one will believe it to be possible. It doesn't matter what other people think, just pursue your own goals with no regrets. I think that is the best way to live life.

Kaizoku · Apr 24, 2020

Simas · Apr 24, 2020

Baal said:
Nope. A guy just starting at 15 is not going to be a pro, no matter how hard you believe or how many songs you listen to.

yea, unfortunately, that how it works. And all that if you work hard you will be on the top of the world eventually is neither supported by by logic nor by evidence. And don't forget it's table tennis, not a tennis, so to be a pro, you have to be not in top 1000 (speculating here

), but in top 100 in the whole world. So...

Dr Evil · Apr 24, 2020

davizoosk said:
I am 15 years old, what is the chance of becoming a professional? I'm feeling very late compared to Tomokazu Harimoto...

Estimate about 70 million 15 year old boys on Earth right now. To catch Harimoto from a dead start you'd have to be the proverbial one in a million athlete, so let's say there are 70 kids who might be able to do it. These are the best of the best athletes and competitors. By age 15 most are already sports stars with a good chance at a pro career or the Olympics. But let's say a quarter of them never had the opportunity or motivation to choose a particular sport -- now we're down to 20 kids -- until their father gets them some table tennis equipment for their 15th birthday. Now 10 kids get Viscarias with Tenergy 05 so they're eliminated. But the other 10 kids get Appelgren Allplays with Vega Pro; these kids have a chance. That makes 10 out of 70 million. So your current odds are 1 in 7 million. On the upside, that's 50 times better than the odds of winning the Powerball lottery. On the downside, 10 times worse than getting struck by lightning this year.

Baal · Apr 24, 2020

Simas said:
yea, unfortunately, that how it works. And all that if you work hard you will be on the top of the world eventually is neither supported by by logic nor by evidence. And don't forget it's table tennis, not a tennis, so to be a pro, you have to be not in top 1000 (speculating here ), but in top 100 in the whole world. So...

Which is fairly rarely accomplished by players in the Western hemisphere, although Brazil does better than most.

Simas · Apr 24, 2020

Dr Evil said:
Estimate about 70 million 15 year old boys on Earth right now. To catch Harimoto from a dead start you'd have to be the proverbial one in a million athlete, so let's say there are 70 kids who might be able to do it. These are the best of the best athletes and competitors. By age 15 most are already sports stars with a good chance at a pro career or the Olympics. But let's say a quarter of them never had the opportunity or motivation to choose a particular sport -- now we're down to 20 kids -- until their father gets them some table tennis equipment for their 15th birthday. Now 10 kids get Viscarias with Tenergy 05 so they're eliminated. But the other 10 kids get Appelgren Allplays with Vega Pro; these kids have a chance. That makes 10 out of 70 million. So your current odds are 1 in 7 million. On the upside, that's 50 times better than the odds of winning the Powerball lottery. On the downside, 10 times worse than getting struck by lightning this year.

interesting assumptions, but the point is loud and clear

Simas · Apr 24, 2020

Baal said:
Which is fairly rarely accomplished by players in the Western hemisphere, although Brazil does better than most.

exactly. You have to account for what it seems superior training system in China compared to the one in Western part too

lightspin · Apr 24, 2020

NextLevel said:
I think the problem is processing the ball - it takes an immense amount of computational power to estimate spin and ball trajectory and I think it is hard to dedicate enough of the brain to doing this as you get older and then automate reactions to be instinctive. I don't think the problems would be as significant if spin was less of an issue in the sport.

NextLevel is spot on with his analysis. I think table tennis is more like speaking a language than playing a typical sport. Something happens and you must instantaneously react in the correct manner. How many people do you know that learned a second language as an adult and speak perfectly, understanding the slang and have no accent? Now suppose you are trying to trip this person up by using slang or complicated phrases in weird ways. If you are speaking to a native speaker, they will understand most of the time. If you speaking to someone who learned in their 20s, good luck to the other person.

The later you start playing, the harder it is for you to become fluent. You could be the quickest, strongest and smartest guy in the world. In table tennis what matters is how quickly you can judge what is going on and how fast you can make the correct decision. Kids who start at 2 or 6 just instantly know what is going on. For others, it's practically impossible to develop the skill. With that being said, still do your best. It is up to you to determine how good you get.

davizoosk · Apr 24, 2020

thank you all for your help, i learned here and understood my chances. are minimal, I watched games in front of you and thought "look how easy this exchange of units must have been", "how easy the reception must be, how the forehand movement is easy to catch", then I started to look at it from another perspective , I saw Ryu Seung Min jumping and screaming after winning the 2004 Athens Olympics, I realized how difficult it was, how fast it was, how he and Wang Hao were celebrating each point. I personally watched games. And I realized, now the plug has dropped. Thanks to everyone again, I will train everyone, I will try as hard as I can. Some have said hard that I'm not going to make it, well, who knows. Thank you for your opinion, experience and speech. I will try until the end. First I will try the High School School Games, I still have 2 years to participate since this year was canceled due to covid. After high school, regional games, and finally national games. It will not be easy, I will follow small steps, I no longer want to be seen only as a dreamer, but with someone who is trying, I don't want them to laugh anymore. thanks for the motivations and the reality you presented.

Der_Echte · Apr 25, 2020

lightspin said:
NextLevel is spot on with his analysis. I think table tennis is more like speaking a language than playing a typical sport...

...The later you start playing, the harder it is for you to become fluent.

I wish it really was like that. I speak 4 languages, learned the 3 the I learned as adult. The two that I spent any continued time I did very well. One of them, almost native.

If only TT were so easy as learning language... and learning language to be functional to the point of thinking instinctively in that language... that is damned difficult.

So TT is REALLY difficult to learn.

... but on a level, I totally agree, so many similar possibilities of neuron association and high level functioning. In particular, with adults, the same approaches to training kids simply are not effective. The reps need to be there, so there is that similarity, but you do not tell an adult "Strike the Ball" and ask them to do that a few thousand times and expect mastery. Adult minds just do not pick it up like that. Maybe if they know how and why and have a progressive approach that isolated complex things one by one or two by two... and they get the reps... then there is often good progress.

... especially agree with the part of starting later... I started as a fat/40 rec player... kina typical story.

ajtatosmano2 · Apr 25, 2020

zyu81 said:
To be fair Hungary is not really a table tennis powerhouse, probably less competitive than in Brazil

That's true, but professional means the main mean of income. You don't have to play world tours. And I am not sure how stronger Brazilian table tennis is (other than Hugo and Tsuboi and Ishy).
What about Keenan Southall? He started late, or not? How does he play now?
And I believe many people underestimate how important talent is. If he's talented and trains hard and smart I believe he can be a pro. Without talent...it's not so likely, but we don't know if it's possible. I guess most of the "I wanna be a pro but I started late" guys are giving up too early or they didn't practice smart and hard enough. enough. So we never see how far can someone get when he starts late.

I am 15 years old, what is the chance of becoming a professional?

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