says
ok, I will go back and make sure you have access.
Be...
I am 15 years old, what is the chance of becoming a professional?
- Thread starter davizoosk
- Start date
-
- Tags
- chance professional years
Sadly people who are that rare prodigy with exceptional talent usually get noticed and thus wouldn't be asking on a forum.
And Keenan Southall is nowhere near a professional level, it is concerning that you mention that in conjunction with your own goals to go pro, the bar may be a lot higher than you seem to think it is.
This user has no status.
This user has no status.
Well-Known Member
I asked about Keenan, because I didn't know where he is now, but remembered that he decided to go pro late.
If by "going pro" you mean training and playing full time, sure, unfortunately he is nowhere near the pro level so that probably isn't a very encouraging example.
says
2023 Certified Organ Donor
says
2023 Certified Organ Donor
Well-Known Member
ajtatosmano2 said:
I played a match vs Keenan in a 4 star tourney a few months ago. He was rated (I think right at 2100 USATT) only a few dozen points more than me (which by rating at that level is maybe a 1/3 to 1/2 of a level of difference). His actual play level is prolly more like 2200 USATT. Typical of a developing attacking young player - rating always lagging true play level.
I won my first game vs him, then he listened to coach and used his advantages and the rest of the match and it was over for me. Game 4, I went up 7-3 and thought if I could pull off game 4, mentally, he wouldn't be in good shape. After a short pause... He ended up winning every point the rest of the game to win the match. That shows very good mental toughness along with the inconsistency of a young player.
That should tell you a little about the kid. He has a typical strong offensive attacking topspin game can play fast and cover a lot of ground. Struggles vs heavy slow spin and change of pace shots. Again, typical for a developing young offensive pro-style trained kid trained to play fast.
To put into Keenan's level. Regardless of his lower than his true level official USATT rating, he is 2200 level player at the time I faced him in Feb 2020 at that 4 star tourney in the Quarter finals of U2200 or whatever event it was.
2200 USATT is an achievement for anyone, I would be very happy to eventually crack that level... but for real though, 2200 means you are a good player, a true bad-ass, but not even close to being an elite amateur... and that is a far cry from professional level.
Once you crack 2500, you are approaching elite USA amateur... and even then, at that level - 200 points - you are 5-6 levels from truly being able to contend for a national team slot...
Let's see... 2200 to 2500 USATT is 300 points... and at that level, that is about 5 levels.
So, Keenan is about 5 levels from being 5 levels of being an elite amateur capable of contending for natl team slot.
That is still some serious bad-ass level now... still only 5% of USA player can even get to that level, so a big achievement. I do not know what his top end potential is, but I would not think it is much more than 2500. Could be wrong, let's say I would expect him to train and make that level in 6 years if he keeps playing.
Greg Bartz, now NYC based, started as an amateur player just playing club matches in Korea... after 10 years, he developed touch and control of rallies... prolly was 2300 level when he left... he cracked 2400 level at LA Open 2019, he defeated a solid veteran 2500 level player to earn that level...
So... not impossible with time to do some amazing stuff. Greg started TT as a 30 yr adult no background in TT. 12-13 yrs total played and started likely under 1000 level now 2400 level.
Last edited:
says
2023 Certified Organ Donor
says
2023 Certified Organ Donor
Well-Known Member
To put it into even more understandable terms... right now, I credit Keena with an additional level above his official rating.
He would need to improve 10 levels to get to 2700 USATT level.
2700 USATT among the pro crowd is pretty much like you getting 2 weeks of emergency Taekwondo training, then have to go onto the mat and face a Korean Champion... your training is only enough to get you into trouble.
A 2700 USATT player, if they face a PRO TT Player... who we would consider to be WR50 for starters... That level starts at 2800 USATT for starters. AT that level, 100 points is almost like 4 levels.
Hou Yingchao in LA Open 2018 in the dim cave in the finals faced a Bay Area Club Coach (Swan Warriors) who was rated real close to 2700. Hou was maybe rated low 2800s.
Hou made that Swan Warriors coach looked so silly like he was in his first week of lessons. Hou would chop a ball with his SP, 2700 level coach would try to ouch it back over... ball would go maybe 6 inches before it hit the table two feet short of the net. hou would float chop a ball, Swan Warrior 2700 would loop it, but ball would be out by 2 meters. Average score if Hou played serious would be 11-3.
So... Keenan is 10 levels of improvement away from getting crushed 11-3 in a match vs a pro... yet in real terms, truly, Keenan is a certified bad-ass that only 5% of Americans have achieved his play level.
That is the perspective to take away.
He would need to improve 10 levels to get to 2700 USATT level.
2700 USATT among the pro crowd is pretty much like you getting 2 weeks of emergency Taekwondo training, then have to go onto the mat and face a Korean Champion... your training is only enough to get you into trouble.
A 2700 USATT player, if they face a PRO TT Player... who we would consider to be WR50 for starters... That level starts at 2800 USATT for starters. AT that level, 100 points is almost like 4 levels.
Hou Yingchao in LA Open 2018 in the dim cave in the finals faced a Bay Area Club Coach (Swan Warriors) who was rated real close to 2700. Hou was maybe rated low 2800s.
Hou made that Swan Warriors coach looked so silly like he was in his first week of lessons. Hou would chop a ball with his SP, 2700 level coach would try to ouch it back over... ball would go maybe 6 inches before it hit the table two feet short of the net. hou would float chop a ball, Swan Warrior 2700 would loop it, but ball would be out by 2 meters. Average score if Hou played serious would be 11-3.
So... Keenan is 10 levels of improvement away from getting crushed 11-3 in a match vs a pro... yet in real terms, truly, Keenan is a certified bad-ass that only 5% of Americans have achieved his play level.
That is the perspective to take away.
says
Spin and more spin.
says
Spin and more spin.
Well-Known Member
Super Moderator
Zyu has a good point here. And Keenan went to a full time training in a foreign country and started out as a mid level player and got to be a higher mid level player. He got pretty good for an amateur. So I don't want to nock the improvements he made. But he started out at a decent level and increased his level. Which is not a good comparison to someone who at 15 is playing for 1 year, starting and wanting to get to be top tier level player.
I mean, put simply, the age they start at in China and the amount of training those kids who start at 4 and by the time they are 7 they are doing 6 hours of training 6 days a week, there is a reason the top European players who start at 8 and do 4-5 hours of training 5 days a week can never really catch up.
But, it is still worth trying. So, I would still say go for it. There are things you will learn and many of them not about table tennis that could help you for the rest of your life. So, go for it. But keep some options open so that you are positioned to use your talents when you do need to pay the bills. There is not a better time to go for your passion than at 15. But keep your options open when you need to support yourself.
says
The sticky bit is stuck.
says
The sticky bit is stuck.
Well-Known Member
Do we know of greats, past and present, that started at a later age?
I vaguely recall Werner Schlager might qualify, but can’t think of any other.
I vaguely recall Werner Schlager might qualify, but can’t think of any other.
This user has no status.
This user has no status.
Well-Known Member
"Schlager began playing table tennis when he was six years old, learning from his father, Rudolph Schlager and brother, Harald Schlager who were also top Austrian players, making them ideal training partners" Quoted from the wikipedia.
says
The sticky bit is stuck.
says
The sticky bit is stuck.
Well-Known Member
says
ok, I will go back and make sure you have access.
Be...
Well-Known Member
One thing about usa ratings too is they are not linear really. Going from 2000 to 2200 is probably easier than 2400 to 2600.
says
Spin and more spin.
says
Spin and more spin.
Well-Known Member
Super Moderator
Said differently, and I think this is accurate:
* Going from 1200 to 1400 is easier than going from 1400 to 1600
* Going from 1400 to 1600 is easier than going from 1600 to 1800
* Going from 1600 to 1800 is easier than going from 1800 to 2000
* Going from 1800 to 2000 is easier than going from 2000 to 2200
* Going from 2000 to 2200 is easier than going from 2200 to 2400
* Going from 2000 to 2200 is easier than going from 2200 to 2400
* Going from 2200 to 2400 is easier than going from 2400 to 2500
* Going from 2400 to 2500 is easier than going from 2500 to 2600
** Note, the number gap got smaller after 2400. And I can think of quite a few talented players who get stuck in the 2300-2400 range and seem to just hit a wall that they cannot break over.
This user has no status.
This user has no status.
Well-Known Member
I miss the ELO based rating in Hungary. It would be so much easier to estimate someone's playing level. When I talked about this with the federation's development manager, he told, that the current ranking works for a long time now and a revision would be more of a hassle than good.
says
ok, I will go back and make sure you have access.
Be...
Well-Known Member
Another point. Nearly every kid I ever saw who started fairly young and had lots of coaching made it to 2250 or even 2300. Quite a few. A few anti-talents stalled out at 2000. But only a few got past that. I think three reached 2550-2600. This is going back to around 1990. Areas with more clubs and juniors will produce more put the proportions will be similar.
This user has no status.
This user has no status.
Well-Known Member
This user has no status.
This user has no status.
Well-Known Member
I've seen 12 year olds with a Swedish rating of about 1400 beat the crap out of USATT 2000+ and I've also seen USATT 2000+ stand their ground pretty ok against Swedish division 3 players (5th tier national level who usually has a Swedish rating a bit north of 2100). The rating in the US doesn't seem to be very consistent and the average level seem to be very poor.
And how do you know that the Swedish system isn't consistent then? And what do you mean by average level being poor?
This user has no status.
Member
It is kind of interesting how level is relative is to different places.
Swedens general level seems to be pretty high compared to most countries. When I played in England there seemed to be many more players but the general level was much lower. In Sweden, even many players who have strange styles and technique are pretty decent compared to similar players in England.
Some have estimated me to be at around 2200 USATT level and I don't feel like I'm a very good player here. There are lots of players around my level and way above. More difficult to find those players in England for example. I would guess it's similar in the US. The US and England hasn't had such a strong TT culture in the past so it makes sense.
says
2023 Certified Organ Donor
says
2023 Certified Organ Donor
Well-Known Member
The average "club" level in USA for TT is pretty low, but it is all relative, but even in absolute terms average USATT "club" player level is pretty low and awkward. You have to understand the average USATT "Club", like 3/4+ of them are not conventional full time operating with competent coaching... it is usually a rented community center or school hall where they setup tables for a couple hours, play matches, then put the tables back up.
Even the nation of KOREA, which is respected worldwide for a very high level of TT... even their amateur system is pretty weak. The average Korean club level is pretty close to USA average club level.. and 80% of Korean players are in a band that is one level above to 2-3 levels below average club level... which means most of them suck compared to a more developed and organized nation's amateur TT. Even the top level is pretty weak, much weaker than USA, which is considered weak.
The Koreans have a system to pick out promising athletes and train them early... they do not allow the pro trained athletes to compete in amateur TT tourneys, except only in national tourneys in the "Pro Player" division.
My trip to Copenhagen, I played with TT Ninja who was Div 1 in his country. I made it to 5 games vs him and lost.. at the time I was 50 pts below 2000 level California. I would say Ninja was at least solid 2150s plus level USATT. There were several other players who seemed near his level at the club in Copenhagen.
Even the nation of KOREA, which is respected worldwide for a very high level of TT... even their amateur system is pretty weak. The average Korean club level is pretty close to USA average club level.. and 80% of Korean players are in a band that is one level above to 2-3 levels below average club level... which means most of them suck compared to a more developed and organized nation's amateur TT. Even the top level is pretty weak, much weaker than USA, which is considered weak.
The Koreans have a system to pick out promising athletes and train them early... they do not allow the pro trained athletes to compete in amateur TT tourneys, except only in national tourneys in the "Pro Player" division.
My trip to Copenhagen, I played with TT Ninja who was Div 1 in his country. I made it to 5 games vs him and lost.. at the time I was 50 pts below 2000 level California. I would say Ninja was at least solid 2150s plus level USATT. There were several other players who seemed near his level at the club in Copenhagen.
Similar threads
