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    1. Top | #81
      Dr Evil is offline
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      First ~10 minutes on vaccine development. A few highlights: Moderna mRNA vaccine on track for 30,000 subject phase III trial beginning the first week of July. The Oxford vaccine is on more or less the same schedule, and by the end of the summer 4-5 vaccines could be there. November-December projection for positive efficacy results. At risk manufacturing should produce 100 million doses by then, and several hundred million by the beginning of 2021. Durability of response is a central concern now. Natural coronavirus immune protection often lasts less than a year.

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    3. Top | #82
      Baal is offline
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      Dr. Evil is right, there are things not known about the immune response to SARS-COv-2. The reason to be optimistic, however, is that researchers have identified things called CD4+ memory T-cells in patients who have had Covid-19 (and also earlier in SARS patients), which would usually suggest that immunity will be somewhat long lasting. It is possible that people might need to re-vaccinate every few years.


      The next link is an explanation of some of this in less technical terms. Unfortunately, immunology is ridiculously complicated.


      With that said, some people in ICUs show signs of "immune exhaustion" which may be why they ended up there.


      There is a thing called immune senescence. Regular exercise is known to delay it. By the way, one of the reasons HIV is so persistent and refractory to vaccine development is that virus actually INFECTS the CD4+ T-cells! So it is able to evade the immune system pretty much forever.

      Cornonaviruses fortunately do not have any superpowers quite like that, and they don't seem to mutate very rapidly at the most antigenic places (in contrast to, say, influenza viruses).

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