Return of International TT Matches

MaLin2.0 said:

Japan, should they stick with same 6 they selected or have Uda and Hayata/Nagasaki shown overtaken 1 or 2 players?

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MaLin2.0 said:

Would LSW need to play any tournaments leading up to Tokyo 2021 or does she slot straight in?

Seems she was absent for so long, even absent from warm-up tournaments

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1. The 2021 WTT Event in XD, which is ITTF designates as a qualification event for the Tokyo Olympics- This is not purely an Olympic qualification event. This means that even the strong pairs that have already qualified for the Olympics such as the Mixed Doubles pairs from Japan, Taiwan, HK, and Germany will likely take part in this event in a last-ditch effort to increase their WR to have a better Olympic Draw. While XX/SYS are the favorites to win, one cannot rule out upsets from these other strong nations. Remember, XX/SYS has to win this event or they don't qualify through this method.
2. The Asian Olympic Mixed Doubles Qualification event- While the field of competition may not be as strong in this tournament since the Mixed Doubles Pair already qualified for the Olympics cannot participate in this event, there are still notable challenges from the likes of South Korea (the Lee Sangsu/Jeon Jihee pair nearly beat XX/LSW twice), North Korea (their pair beat the FZD/DN pair in the China Open and the country itself has a history of winning XD events in the WTTC) and India (their pair took out both North and South Korea's pairs in the 2018 Asian Games en route to their First Asian Games Table Tennis Medal). Again, XX/SYS would be favored, but they have little room for error as they must win the event.
3. Highest World Ranking Allocation- the WR of the pair of XX/SYS just isn't high enough to qualify for the Olympics through this method because XX/SYS only played together in one tournament. After all continental qualification events have been played, there will only be 6 spots left for the Olympic XD event, which will go to the 6 different countries. Right now, 12 different countries, who have yet to qualify a XD pair for the Olympics, have pairings with a higher WR than XX/SYS so there's a strong chance XX/SYS will not qualify by ranking mainly due to their lack of participation together. See this document.

1. There isn't sufficient evidence to conclude that XX/SYS is better than XX/LSW. The pair of XX/SYS is indeed undefeated while XX/LSW has one loss, but this is only natural given that XX/LSW has played in more matches. The sample size of matches played by XX/SYS may be too small to conclusively determine that such a pair is better than XX/LSW.
2. Even if we assume that XX/SYS is better than XX/LSW, the difference in level doesn't appear substantial enough to the degree that China would risk missing out on the Olympics completely by putting themselves through the qualification process again. Either of the pairs would be gold medal favorites and I honestly don't see China risking it unless LSW is in such a bad physical condition that such risk would be justified by the reward.
3. That being said, while China may be testing the XX/SYS XD pair as a possible plan B in the event the worst-case scenario happens that LSW is seriously injured, I think CTTA would very much prefer not having to worry about qualification again, which is why CTTA is being very cautious in handling LSW and her tournaments. They know if she goes down, they cannot just easily replace their XD pair since Olympic XD spots are reallocated to individual pairs and not to countries.

ワールドカップなどは、来年の東京オリンピックのシード争いに関係する世界ランキングの獲得ポイントが高く、卓球協会によりますと、オリンピック代表に内定している伊藤選手や張本選手、それに石川佳純選手や丹羽孝希選手などが出場する意向を示しているということです。

出場する選手たちは、中国の上海で3日間隔離されてPCR検査を受けたあと、14日間の隔離措置がとられ、その後に大会が開催されるということです。

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apacible said:

LSW actually doesn't need to play any more tournaments. Her Olympic spot was already confirmed when the Xu Xin/Liu Shiwen XD pair qualified through the 2019 World Tour Grand Finals. See this document. As stated in the document "Any qualified athletes in Mixed Doubles must be part of the team composition if their NOC has qualified a team of that gender." In other words, LSW is guaranteed to play in the XD and team event in the Olympics because China already confirmed her slot with ITTF and the International Olympic Committee.

In my opinion, however, I don't see LSW being completely absent from all the tournaments leading up to the Olympics, but she'll probably just play a select few tournaments as a warm-up. She seems to be getting the same treatment Ma Long received when he had injury problems in late 2017 and late 2018. Remember, after the 2017 World Cup when Ma Long lost to Boll, he went on a long hiatus. He went on to play two tournaments in 2018 (Team World Cup and German Open) to get himself warmed up before the 2018 World Team Table Tennis Championships. ML came back with a bang and timely peaked during that stretch by going undefeated from the Team World Cup to the China Open before eventually slowing down in the Japan and Bulgaria Open. He may have lost to Harimoto and Pitchford in those 2 tournaments, but the important thing was that he peaked at the right time, which is during the most important tournament of the year, the 2018 WTTTC.

ML would not anymore play in 2018 and went on a 7-month break before making his first appearance in the 2019 Qatar Open to get himself warmed up before the 2019 WTTC. There were doubts as to whether a ML coming off injury could win, but the long break or rest for the veteran actually benefited him as he went on to win the 2019 Qatar Open, 2019 WTTC, and 2019 China Open. The long breaks for Ma Long in 2018 and 2019 seemed to have helped him in peaking at both World Championships. My hunch is that LSW is also going through such long breaks to properly be in peak condition for the Olympics. Like Ma Long, she'll probably play in 1 or 2 tournaments before the Olympics as a warm-up. I can understand the worry some fans may feel given her long absence, but I do believe that this is all part LSW's maintenance plan in preparation for the big stage- The Olympics.

Given that LSW has already been confirmed by China, can China revoke her confirmation for the Olympics and send a new Mixed Doubles team and a team composition that doesn't include her?
Technically, yes, China can revoke her confirmation, but such confirmation comes with a lot of risks. There might be a false notion that once a country's XD pair qualifies, that country can send any other XD pair as a replacement in the case that the original pair withdraws. For example, if China revokes their confirmation of the XX/LSW pair, some assume that they can easily just send another pair in their stead such as XX/SYS. This is an incorrect assumption. It is the individual pair that qualifies for a mixed doubles spot and not the country that qualifies. Therefore, if a mixed doubles pair withdraws, their spot is not reallocated to another pair from the same country but is reallocated to the next highest WR pair regardless of nationality. If China wanted to revoke the confirmation of the XX/LSW and send another pair such as XX/SYS, China would have to go through the Mixed Doubles Qualification process all over again.

Based on the Olympic Qualification Document, there are three possible ways China's potential new XD pair can qualify for the Olympics in 2021. See this document. I will use XX/SYS as the example since this seems to be China's next best choice for a XD pair. While it seems that XX/SYS should be favored to win these events, they do not have any room for error. If they revoke the XX/LSW pair and fail to qualify XX/SYS through the above methods, China would completely lose its spot in the Mixed Doubles event. On a side note, China cannot be sneaky and try to qualify XX/SYS before revoking the confirmation of the XX/LSW pair because the rules of Olympic qualification prohibit such. There must be a revocation of the confirmed pair first before China would be allowed to go through the qualification process again with a different pair.

1. The 2021 WTT Event in XD, which is ITTF designates as a qualification event for the Tokyo Olympics- This is not purely an Olympic qualification event. This means that even the strong pairs that have already qualified for the Olympics such as the Mixed Doubles pairs from Japan, Taiwan, HK, and Germany will likely take part in this event in a last-ditch effort to increase their WR to have a better Olympic Draw. While XX/SYS are the favorites to win, one cannot rule out upsets from these other strong nations. Remember, XX/SYS has to win this event or they don't qualify through this method.
2. The Asian Olympic Mixed Doubles Qualification event- While the field of competition may not be as strong in this tournament since the Mixed Doubles Pair already qualified for the Olympics cannot participate in this event, there are still notable challenges from the likes of South Korea (the Lee Sangsu/Jeon Jihee pair nearly beat XX/LSW twice), North Korea (their pair beat the FZD/DN pair in the China Open and the country itself has a history of winning XD events in the WTTC) and India (their pair took out both North and South Korea's pairs in the 2018 Asian Games en route to their First Asian Games Table Tennis Medal). Again, XX/SYS would be favored, but they have little room for error as they must win the event.
3. Highest World Ranking Allocation- the WR of the pair of XX/SYS just isn't high enough to qualify for the Olympics through this method because XX/SYS only played together in one tournament. After all continental qualification events have been played, there will only be 6 spots left for the Olympic XD event, which will go to the 6 different countries. Right now, 12 different countries, who have yet to qualify a XD pair for the Olympics, have pairings with a higher WR than XX/SYS so there's a strong chance XX/SYS will not qualify by ranking mainly due to their lack of participation together. See this document.

Of course, if LSW suffers a long-term injury that is so serious that she cannot play in the Olympics, China would have no choice but to drop her from the Olympic team and go through the XD qualification process all over again. However, unless China is compelled to do so, I do not see them willing to take the risk of sending another XD pair such as XX/SYS to undergo the qualification process again at the risk of missing out on the Olympics completely.

1. There isn't sufficient evidence to conclude that XX/SYS is better than XX/LSW. The pair of XX/SYS is indeed undefeated while XX/LSW has one loss, but this is only natural given that XX/LSW has played in more matches. The sample size of matches played by XX/SYS may be too small to conclusively determine that such a pair is better than XX/LSW.
2. Even if we assume that XX/SYS is better than XX/LSW, the difference in level doesn't appear substantial enough to the degree that China would risk missing out on the Olympics completely by putting themselves through the qualification process again. Either of the pairs would be gold medal favorites and I honestly don't see China risking it unless LSW is in such a bad physical condition that such risk would be justified by the reward.
3. That being said, while China may be testing the XX/SYS XD pair as a possible plan B in the event the worst-case scenario happens that LSW is seriously injured, I think CTTA would very much prefer not having to worry about qualification again, which is why CTTA is being very cautious in handling LSW and her tournaments. They know if she goes down, they cannot just easily replace their XD pair since Olympic XD spots are reallocated to individual pairs and not to countries.

Speaking of Mixed Doubles, it appears that Japan has finally lifted its ban on doubles practice. It was reported that Japanese pairs such as the Mizutani/Ito pair had their first doubles practice since March, so this is a positive sign that the COVID-19 situation seems to be improving. I am hoping that the situation also improves worldwide, so players from other countries can also put on their best performances in time for the Olympics.

Sources:
https://www.ittf.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Tokyo_2020_XD_2020_04_21.pdf
https://www.ittf.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/20200720_Tokyo2020_RQS_TT_en.pdf
https://www.ittf.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Mixed-Doubles-OR-2020.04-2.pdf
https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/9402314d0105de6b99919055fd87df34a408538b

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zeio said:

NHK reports that Ito, Harimoto, Ishikawa and Niwa are confirmed for MWC, WWC, ITTF Finals and WTT Macau. Will spend 3 days in Shanghai to take the PCR test and then 14 days in quarantine.

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20200926/k10012636431000.html

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janard said:

OTOH, despite all the 'protests', boll ended up being the only european player withdrawing? Ovtcharov is still going lol?

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zeio said:

Boll: Invertebrates!
Ovtcharov et al.: china is my 2nd home!

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コロナ下での中国開催で、何にも問題なく大会が幕を閉じたら、東京五輪の数種目を中国に持って行かれそうな気がしますが？

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zeio said:

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/e3049c29c80b4238c5f139aabe91d037936a26d0

If the tournaments end without any problems in China, do you feel that you may be able to bring some events of the Tokyo Olympics to China?

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最近は生活も卓球も自分らしく、いい感じで過ごせています。６月からナショナルチームの合宿も始まりました。今はいろんな方と練習できる機会も少なくなっているので、合宿期間中はすごくいい練習ができていて、毎日が楽しいです。

　この夏は花火をしたり、海にも行きました。普段はこの期間は海外で試合があることも多くて、日本に帰ってきたら秋になっていたりして。今年は試合がなかったので不思議な感じはありましたが、久々に夏らしいことができました。（早田）ひなが（実家のある）静岡に来てくれたこともありました。すごく充実した練習ができましたし、初めて中田島砂丘に行ったり、食事をしたり。試合があればこうやって一緒に長く過ごすことはできなかったので、楽しかったです。練習もしっかりしながら、夏を満喫できたと思います。

　１１月には中国で国際大会が再開されます。世界ランキングにも関係して来年の五輪にも影響しますし、試合がしたい気持ちもあったので、行くことを決めました。ただ（コロナ禍の）今の時期ということで正直、不安もあります。

　隔離や練習環境、検査、移動はどうなるのか。本当に中国まで行けるのか。普段のＷ杯やプロツアーとは違って、長期間の滞在にもなります。分からないこともたくさんあるので、日本卓球協会を通じてＩＴＴＦ（国際卓球連盟）に毎日のように質問を投げかけています。気にしすぎてもダメなんですが、行くからには中途半端なままではなく、いろいろなことを分かった状態で中国に行きたいと思っています。

　試合が行われること自体はすごくうれしいです。動き出したことで、五輪が近づいてきてるなという気持ちにもなります。練習の中で実力が上がっていると感じていますが、コートに立ってみないと分からないこともあります。８か月ぶりの試合で自分がどうなってるかすごく楽しみですし、いろんな選手と試合がしたい。そのために一試合一試合、目の前の試合を勝ち上がれるように頑張ります。

　◆伊藤　美誠（いとう・みま）２０００年１０月２１日、静岡・磐田市生まれ。１９歳。２歳で卓球を始める。世界選手権は団体で１６年銀、１８年銀、女子ダブルスで１７年銅、１９年銀メダル。１６年リオ五輪団体戦で史上最年少の１５歳３００日で銅メダル獲得。１５０センチ、４５キロ。

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