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    #21

    Covid-19 outbreak at US table tennis tournament

    Quote Originally Posted by NextLevel
    I have looked at the Kansas study - if the study were against masks, you would see the problems with it more clearly. Even before the study was published by the CDC, Kansas had used it to advocate mask use. And critics noticed the problem (see the article below from the WSJ). Kansas Health cherrypicked periods, did not look at the differences/similarities between county sizes, used percentages to hide issues in the comparison, and failed to note that that cases later increased in all the counties and by more in the masked counties later in the year. This was the earliest critique of the Kansas study but I read quite a few more later:

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/kansas-...th-11598483406

    However, the CDC decided to endorse the bad analysis months later without addressing any of the issues in the criticism. One can go to https://covidtracking.com/ and put in the counties in the mask study and decide whether masks are working the way the CDC claims they are.

    In general, this has been an unfortunate trend with covid19 science. When something fits the popular narrative or "common sense", it is often treated without the skepticism that such things should deserve and published quickly. Then the people who criticize it are called "conspiracy theorists" or things like that. Mask effectiveness has become a religion of sorts, with people who support them having no good explanation why places like Philadelphia, which have been under mask mandates the whole year basically, are now having to lockdown other than to claim people are not complying, which does not match my everyday experience. Baal as a scientist would agree that science is not "common sense", but after that, if it agrees with that he thinks is good to believe, he doesn't show it the skepticism he is trained to show it.

    Here is another example in the popular domain, admittedly only a pre-print. This paper argued for masks reducing cases, and then was withdrawn in the past week or so (I appreciate the honesty of the researchers) when they noted that cases had risen in all the areas where mask mandates were in effect and they needed to do a new kind of analysis to see whether their case worked. Just about any study of masks will suffer from this problem in the US given the seasonality of covid19. Yet no one ever accepts this and you hear things like Robert Redfield saying that masks would end the pandemic in the US. Even the flawed Kansas studies never yielded that kind of effect!

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....21.20208728v2

    "Decrease in Hospitalizations for COVID-19 after Mask Mandates in 1083 U.S. Counties"

    Withdrawal The authors have withdrawn this manuscript because there are increased rates of SARS- CoV-2 cases in the areas that we originally analyzed in this study. New analyses in the context of the third surge in the United States are therefore needed and will be undertaken directly in conjunction with the creators of the publicly-available databases on cases, hospitalizations, testing rates. Etc. We will be performing this in conjunction with machine learning experts at UCSF. Therefore, the authors do not wish this work to be cited as reference for the project. We hope to have an updated analysis using data from the 2nd and now 3rd wave of SARS-CoV-2 in this country soon. If you have any questions, please contact the corresponding author.

    In a sense, I am happy we agree on Vitamin D because while none of the studies are great, the evidence for Vitamin D is much stronger than the evidence for masks - both in quality and logic. The issue with Vitamin D in my view is that it isn't clear whether its effect is mostly a marker of metabolic syndrome or it has an independent effect that supplementation can directly address. In any case, there are no RCTs for masks or vitamin D that validate the effects, but the Vitamin D studies are of much higher quality and the size of the proposed effect is much greater and reasonable even for a placebo than the size proposed for masks, which becomes weirder the more one sees rising case rates in places with high levels of compliance and mask mandates. Even the CDC shows in its studies that most people who tested positive for covid19 in its studies wore masks either often or all the time when not at home.

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...ed/3643312001/

    "Of those 314 patients, 154 tested positive, referred to in the chart as "case patients." Another 160 tested negative, referred to in the chart as "control patients."It's true, as the post claims, that 70.6% of the "case patients" self-reported always wearing masks. But an even higher percentage of the "control patients" who did not contract the virus self-reported always wearing masks, at 74.2%, which suggests that their mask-wearing may have helped stave off the virus."

    A difference in effect, but not enough to end a pandemic (some would quibble more, but my point is not to quibble but point out that the evidence is weak). So it is important for us to continue to keep in perspective what the evidence is saying and not just accept what our feelings tell us must be the case.
    I live in an area of the States where masks are mandatory. I just went in a Walgreens pharmacy and although everyone had a mask on, 80% had their nose exposed. Kind of like wearing a condom with a hole in it and thinking you’re protected. Perhaps a better measure of the efficacy of masks and proper distancing is to look at other countries that have not politicized the wearing of masks...

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    #22
    Regarding masks, here are some peer-reviewed articles that provide a balanced view of what to expect from wearing them in terms of protection, as well as some downsides in certain circumstances. The bottom line is that you need to make multiple behavioral adaptations during this pandemic if you want to avoid this. You have to wear masks properly, and even with masks, you need to avoid places where the virus-laden particles are present at higher levels. Don't let your mask give you a false sense of security. Indoor spaces with lots of people, especially if they are breathing heavily, is a dangerous place.

    Bear in mind, a lot of what we know about masks and respiratory infections is not just from Covid-19, but from other viral infections as well.

    https://www.healthaffairs.org/doi/10..._pub++0pubmed&

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7267357/

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK560196/

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7336106/

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7422455/

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    Last edited by Baal; 12-09-2020 at 10:14 PM.

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    #23
    Quote Originally Posted by Baal
    Regarding masks, here are some peer-reviewed articles that provide a balanced view of what to expect from wearing them in terms of protection, as well as some downsides in certain circumstances. The bottom line is that you need to make multiple behavioral adaptations during this pandemic if you want to avoid this. You have to wear masks properly, and even with masks, you need to avoid places where the virus-laden particles are present at higher levels. Don't let your mask give you a false sense of security. Indoor spaces with lots of people, especially if they are breathing heavily, is a dangerous place.

    Bear in mind, a lot of what we know about masks and respiratory infections is not just from Covid-19, but from other viral infections as well.

    https://www.healthaffairs.org/doi/10..._pub++0pubmed&

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7267357/

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK560196/

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7336106/

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7422455/
    I agree with this - I do think the first paper is bad but I agree with the overall message.

    One of the things that led me to start taking potential issues with masks seriously was when Deborah Cohen of BBC Newsnight said that the WHO recommendations on mask wearing changed not because of new evidence or research but because people with influence (likely national CDCs) asked the WHO to change the recommendations. Usually, when a position changes, you need to know what research drove the change. This has been missing with the universal mask recommendations.

    While a lot of our experience with masks is influenced by experience with masks for other diseases (for which viral ones show limited to no positive effect for masks), you omitted the Danish mask study, which was actually done with the novel coronavirus, which again showed a limited to no positive effect for the wearer (they didn't measure masks for source control):
    https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-6817

    In any case, from the 3rd paper you listed:
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK560196/
    "The applicability of findings to wearing of masks in public is also uncertain. Therefore, the strength of evidence on masks in community settings for prevention of SARS-CoV-2 infection is insufficient."

    From the 5th paper:

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7422455/
    "Only a study done in infected people with and without masks would allow a clear conclusion on the role of masks on the spread of the infection. Finally, a lesson learnt from the COVID pandemic shows significant educational gaps and lack of basic training that need to be addressed. The state should guarantee mask supply for everyone and educate on the proper use."

    Those both make the main points I have tried to make. "Masks work" but what does that mean and on the basis of what evidence? What kinds of masks? Under what conditions? If many people who get covid get it despite wearing masks, something needs to be addressed. The first paper, by the way, is particularly bad.

    The idea that they are part of many layers of pandemic protection is the current paradigm:
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/05/h...on-mackay.html

    You can see them as part of the second layer. But for me, that just means that they are part of a model which it if worked, would have masks as a part of it, and as a part of it, it likely exposes people in ways they have to be realistic about, hence my view that if covid19 is too big a risk for you, definitely wear masks, but don't go anywhere unless you really need to because the masks have limitations. In other words, beware of using the masks to increase the risks you are taking because they are not bullet proof shields. People should be very clear about the quality of mask being recommended, what it is expected to do etc.

    So when Robert Redfield says that ending the pandemic is as simple as everyone wearing a mask, why does he do that?

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    #24
    Quote Originally Posted by PushSmasher
    I live in an area of the States where masks are mandatory. I just went in a Walgreens pharmacy and although everyone had a mask on, 80% had their nose exposed. Kind of like wearing a condom with a hole in it and thinking you’re protected. Perhaps a better measure of the efficacy of masks and proper distancing is to look at other countries that have not politicized the wearing of masks...
    This is true. That said, with other countries, you also have other confounders if you are thinking about the problem scientifically. In fact, I believe that the main reason why people overestimate the impact of masks is that they look at what happened in East Asian countries and focus on mask wearing as the key thing. I call that plausibility, but I don't think it is scientific. At least, people are willing to accept that lower rates of covid19 deaths in Africa are driven by the demographics of the populations there. We should expand our concept of causation and consider the possibility that we have limited control of viral infections as a population when thinking about covid19. Because some of the measures we have chosen in response to the pandemic, the one that is most clear being the closing of schools for children below the age of 18, will have impacts on society for years to come.

    That said, I have drifted too far afield. Since tournaments have been cancelled, people should just be careful going to play table tennis in places that may be crowded.

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    #25
    This is worth reading

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisond...ee-vanderbilt/

    And this

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/leahros...l-wear-a-mask/

    Bottom line is Covid-19 is raging in much of the US right now. In the current conditions (which are very different from those of that rather weak Danish study), you need multiple strategies to stay safe. Masks worn properly should be one of several behaviors you adopt.

    For sure, they are not foolproof. But there is a reason everybody in an operating room where's one!

    I am actually of the opinion that ICC was simply lucky they didn't have outbreaks earlier
    Last edited by Baal; 12-10-2020 at 01:20 AM.

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    #26
    I think another problem here in the US was the messaging coming from the medical authorities. For many months I kept hearing on television respected scientists and medical professionals saying that wearing a mask won't help us personally, but that we should wear them to protect others. The problem is in this day and age, it seems like the majority of people don't want to be put out in any way to assist or protect someone they might not even know. As a result, I think I lot of people decided they didn't want to wear a mask if it wasn't going to protect them, which is what we were being told initially. They now understand more and the messaging has changed, but no doubt a lot of damage was done.

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    #27
    Covid19 spreads primarily via respiratory droplets. Any mask made of suitable material will catch some of those droplets. Given these well established facts, it would be remarkable if masks didn't limit the spread of Covid19. This is not a well established fact, and as a practical matter probably won't become one any time soon. But at a certain point, common sense really ought to kick in.

    Table tennis probably isn't as dangerous as choir practice, but any indoor event with people breathing hard is going to be risky. If you want to play in public, please wear a mask.

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    #28
    Quote Originally Posted by Dr Evil
    Covid19 spreads primarily via respiratory droplets. Any mask made of suitable material will catch some of those droplets. Given these well established facts, it would be remarkable if masks didn't limit the spread of Covid19. This is not a well established fact, and as a practical matter probably won't become one any time soon. But at a certain point, common sense really ought to kick in.
    Quote Originally Posted by NextLevel
    In fact, I believe that the main reason why people overestimate the impact of masks is that they look at what happened in East Asian countries and focus on mask wearing as the key thing. I call that plausibility, but I don't think it is scientific.

    I rather have 3 ply non woven medical grade mask, knowing what ever droplets that could ends on the outer ply won't get sucked through the mask.
    Thus the only risk left is touching that area and leading to cross contamination.

    I think if we look at the data. The only country in the world that pushes it citizens to use proper high quality masks, to do so at the earliest stage of any possible outbreak, to have proper hygiene practices in the education system since a young age - today is also the most successful country in the fight against the virus. Taiwan I think is near 240+ days of zero local transmission.

    Any new cases since 8 months ago are all "imported" and filtered out by strong/forced quarantine practices. And even if any case is "slipped" through the crack after those 14 days, the spreading/risk is lower due to 1) the virus dying out, 2) proper masking and hygiene practices.

    So I believe, yes, Mask helped Taiwan. But more importantly is near 99.9% of its people were educated or had enough common sense to follow and entrust gov guildlines, and in the same token, Taiwan kindof was prepared for the unknown - after the failure of SARS many years ago.

    I remember reading - they rather inconvenience the 300k of returning citizens and forcing strit control on them, than oppose to risking the freedom and health of 23 million people (mind you, people got paid for following the quarantine protocol and was fined for not)
    lockdown for 300k for 14 days or for months for the 23 million? I think this seems simple.

    Mean while the world is more worried about tourism, and international travelers and rather risk all its citizens for the enjoyment of only a few....

    taking about hygiene in Taiwan and washing hands from a young age, almost all schools in Taiwan - outside the classroom, you have two sets of 2 or 3 taps.
    One set is for washing your lunch boxes etc.
    the other set is for washing your hands....

    so here you have ie, 3 taps for 30 kids. a 1 tap for 10 kids ratio (not including the maybe 20 taps ~ 40 taps per floor in the bathrooms, x 5 floors easily). If one includes the washing dishes taps, than that is 6 taps for 30 kids without the extras in the bathrooms.

    Now compare that with the western part of the world.....out of 1000 kids, I would say you are lucky to find even 50 taps
    and even if you found the 50 taps, you can't guarantee there is soap at every one...

    This washing hands habit has been around for decades. I can't say the same in the western world.

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    Last edited by CoachTony; 12-10-2020 at 02:14 AM.

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    #29
    Quote Originally Posted by Baal
    This is worth reading

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisond...ee-vanderbilt/

    And this

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/leahros...l-wear-a-mask/

    Bottom line is Covid-19 is raging in much of the US right now. In the current conditions (which are very different from those of that rather weak Danish study), you need multiple strategies to stay safe. Masks worn properly should be one of several behaviors you adopt.

    For sure, they are not foolproof. But there is a reason everybody in an operating room where's one!

    I am actually of the opinion that ICC was simply lucky they didn't have outbreaks earlier
    Can find a Vanderbilt paper anywhere. Seems to be something that showed up in a report that the newspapers picked up and hasn't be peer reviewed or exposed to independent audit.
    https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.town...2ed198.pdf.pdf

    It is hard to assess the impact of the effect with all the caveats in the article. That said, the result is encouraging and I hope it holds up.

    The Danish researcher does make an important point that you don't necessarily have to trust your own research. I remember someone supervising a study on red meat not having adverse affects of health and remaining a pescetarian.

    As for masks in surgery, some surgeons have emphasised that masks were never intended to prevent transmission of viral respiratory illnesses. There has been pushback on the evidence base for mask wearing in surgery for a while. I suspect though that plausibility and tradition will continue to win out on that one regardless of what the evidence finds, more so because the barrier intuitively makes sense and no one will want the liability that results in case of an accident.
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4480558/

    I think the ICC ran many events during the summer and were under the impression that covid19 doesn't spread more during the flu season. This seemed to work until it didn't work. But they aren't the only ones - cases have been going up in California in all regions despite widespread use of masks and strict mandates. When people use such cases as the reason that California is being shut down by the state government, they forget, to give one notable example, that Disneyworld in FL is/was open, while Disneyland in CA is closed. People often blame the virus for choices that if people decided to make careful assessments of the situation, could allow for a finer assessment of the risks involved. That is why so many schools are closed today when they have been open all over Europe. And it is not because Europe is seeing fewer cases than the USA.
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    #30
    Quote Originally Posted by Dr Evil
    Covid19 spreads primarily via respiratory droplets. Any mask made of suitable material will catch some of those droplets. Given these well established facts, it would be remarkable if masks didn't limit the spread of Covid19. This is not a well established fact, and as a practical matter probably won't become one any time soon. But at a certain point, common sense really ought to kick in.

    Table tennis probably isn't as dangerous as choir practice, but any indoor event with people breathing hard is going to be risky. If you want to play in public, please wear a mask.
    I am okay with common sense being advocated as common sense. I am okay with it being pushed as common sense in the absence of experimental evidence. But I think it is dangerous to claim common sense is scientific.

    I think if you do anything in public, wear a mask. What I don't like is that when someone gets covid19 these days, people start trying to figure out what you did *wrong* in a way that is moralistic. I mean, people are noticing that other people aren't wearing masks properly and forming all sorts of judgments. The Mayor of Atlanta got covid19 (as did her family) and I remember her saying she did everything right.

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    #31
    Quote Originally Posted by NextLevel
    I think the ICC ran many events during the summer and were under the impression that covid19 doesn't spread more during the flu season. This seemed to work until it didn't work. But they aren't the only ones - cases have been going up in California in all regions despite widespread use of masks and strict mandates. When people use such cases as the reason that California is being shut down by the state government, they forget, to give one notable example, that Disneyworld in FL is/was open, while Disneyland in CA is closed. People often blame the virus for choices that if people decided to make careful assessments of the situation, could allow for a finer assessment of the risks involved. That is why so many schools are closed today when they have been open all over Europe. And it is not because Europe is seeing fewer cases than the USA.
    Here is a jama research letter that I saw back in March.
    https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...rticle/2762692

    I think people tend to forget about the high risk of droplets.

    Sooner or later someone could have the hands contaminated and touching masks/nose/eyes etc. While the spreader was perhaps in the room a day earlier

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    #32
    Quote Originally Posted by CoachTony
    Here is a jama research letter that I saw back in March.
    https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...rticle/2762692

    I think people tend to forget about the high risk of droplets.

    Sooner or later someone could have the hands contaminated and touching masks/nose/eyes etc. While the spreader was perhaps in the room a day earlier

    I agree with the thrust of what you are saying. That said, I don't think they "forget", to be honest. Many people are doing the best they can with the recommendations/mandates and I suspect when they realize that their control over the spread of Covid19 is not as strong as they think it is, more and more events will be cancelled. I am hoping the vaccine will get us out of this mess soon.
    Last edited by NextLevel; 12-10-2020 at 12:40 PM.
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    #33
    From Dec. 1st CDC Science Update on Danish mask study.

    Key findings:


    • 42 (1.8%) participants in the “mask recommendation” group were diagnosed with SARS-CoV-2 compared to 53 (2.1%) participants in the control group (OR = 0.82, 95% CI 0.54-1.23, p = 0.33).

    Methods: Randomized controlled trial of 4,862 adults from April to June 2020 in Denmark to assess if surgical mask use reduced the wearers’ risk for SARS-CoV-2 infection. Participants in the mask group were instructed to wear a mask when outside the home during the next month. Primary outcome was SARS-CoV-2 infection diagnosed through self-collected specimens for serology and PCR or by a healthcare provider. During the study, mask use was uncommon in the community, there was no official recommendation for mask wearing, other public health prevention interventions were recommended, and community prevalence was 2%.

    Limitations: Self-reported primary outcome data; 46% self-reported mask use; did not assess the role of masks in source control; unblinded study could not control for disinhibition or increased risk taking from wearing a mask; study designed to detect 50% decrease in acquisition of infection and not powered to detect smaller differences in transmission between arms.

    Implications: While this trial of mask-wearing suggests that masks do not protect the wearer from SARS-CoV-2 infection, Laine et alexternal icon. emphasize that it neither addresses mask-wearing as source control nor definitively shows that masks do not protect the wearer due to 46% adherence to mask-wearing. Frieden et al.external icon point out the limitations of using antibody tests with specificity of 97.5% as the primary measure of “infection” in this study.
    Last edited by PeteMauss; 12-10-2020 at 02:22 PM.

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    #34
    As of yesterday, California has 32,988 Covid-19 case. That’s more cases than every single COUNTRY in the world except for Brazil which has 54,203 cases. So, the outbreak at ICC does not surprise me. Conditions in many parts of the US are now or soon will be as bad or worse

    Here are three concepts supported by a substantial dataset and/or on epidemiolocal models informed by observations on important parameters (latency, transmission efficiency, very conservative estimates of mask, effectiveness, and others, as well as physical studies of mask and aerosol behavior, also clinical course of the disease). I'm not going to cite papers, but this is a summary based on hundreds of papers I have read, and several presentations I've attended as a member of a committee at my university tasked with making recommendations. This is not coming from anyone working in a government who might require towing a certain line to keep their job.

    1. A cloth mask may not protect you but will reduce community spread. But community spread reduction is multifactorial and also requires social distancing (among other behaviors). That does not mean the outdated 6 foot (2 meter) rule. That means avoiding indoor spaces where number of people and ventilation allow virus laden aerosols to accumulate. This reduces the effective concentration of virus that could contact your airways or eyes. Better masks worn properly protect everyone especially by reducing virus expulsion. But a potential downside is if they give you a false sense of security. And don't forget to wash and sanitize your hands frequently.

    2. Reduce the TIME spent indoors in contact with other people, especially if they are doing things that will increase virus exhalation, like singing or lifting weights or ripping powerful forehand loops.

    3. Be aware that while most people will not get seriously ill with this, it is unpredictable. You might be an unlucky one who ends up in an ICU or a morgue. And, there are potential long-term effects of this not fully understood, including cognitive effects, bad effects on the heart, and........ erectile dysfunction and these things have been seen in very young people and emerge after apparent recovery and in people with almost no prior symptoms, and it is not yet known how prevalent this is. As part of this, do everything you can to obtain ideal body weight, bloid sugar and blood pressure, and take a vitamin D supplement. And even if you are young and healthy, you could cause the deaths of other people.

    So we are really at war with this virus. In a war, think about your comrades (fellow citizens) and stay alive yourself. Don't help the enemy.

    This is really all I have to say at this point. I'm not going to argue with anybody about this. Understand that a major part of WHY the US has the biggest Covid-19 crisis in the world is failure of too many people to follow this. In too many cases it is because people CAN'T follow it because of economic reasons. They need to work. And they don't have access to health care at all, let alone hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of neutralizing monoclonal antibodies.

    But in other cases it is just people being selfish #$%&%s.

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    Last edited by Baal; 12-10-2020 at 02:30 PM.

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    #35

    Covid-19 outbreak at US table tennis tournament

    Quote Originally Posted by Baal
    As of yesterday, California has 32,988 Covid-19 case. That’s more cases than every single COUNTRY in the world except for Brazil which has 54,203 cases. So, the outbreak at ICC does not surprise me. Conditions in many parts of the US are now or soon will be as bad or worse

    Here are three concepts supported by a substantial dataset and/or on epidemiolocal models informed by observations on important parameters (latency, transmission efficiency, very conservative estimates of mask, effectiveness, and others, as well as physical studies of mask and aerosol behavior, also clinical course of the disease). I'm not going to cite papers, but this is a summary based on hundreds of papers I have read, and several presentations I've attended as a member of a committee at my university tasked with making recommendations. This is not coming from anyone working in a government who might require towing a certain line to keep their job.

    1. A cloth mask may not protect you but will reduce community spread. But community spread reduction is multifactorial and also requires social distancing (among other behaviors). That does not mean the outdated 6 foot (2 meter) rule. That means avoiding indoor spaces where number of people and ventilation allow virus laden aerosols to accumulate. This reduces the effective concentration of virus that could contact your airways or eyes. Better masks worn properly protect everyone especially by reducing virus expulsion. But a potential downside is if they give you a false sense of security. And don't forget to wash and sanitize your hands frequently.

    2. Reduce the TIME spent indoors in contact with other people, especially if they are doing things that will increase virus exhalation, like singing or lifting weights or ripping powerful forehand loops.

    3. Be aware that while most people will not get seriously ill with this, it is unpredictable. You might be an unlucky one who ends up in an ICU or a morgue. And, there are potential long-term effects of this not fully understood, including cognitive effects, bad effects on the heart, and........ erectile dysfunction and these things have been seen in very young people and emerge after apparent recovery and in people with almost no prior symptoms, and it is not yet known how prevalent this is. As part of this, do everything you can to obtain ideal body weight, bloid sugar and blood pressure, and take a vitamin D supplement. And even if you are young and healthy, you could cause the deaths of other people.

    So we are really at war with this virus. In a war, think about your comrades (fellow citizens) and stay alive yourself. Don't help the enemy.

    This is really all I have to say at this point. I'm not going to argue with anybody about this. Understand that a major part of WHY the US has the biggest Covid-19 crisis in the world is failure of too many people to follow this. In too many cases it is because people CAN'T follow it because of economic reasons. They need to work. And they don't have access to health care at all, let alone hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of neutralizing monoclonal antibodies.

    But in other cases it is just people being selfish #$%&%s.
    I wholeheartedly agree with everything you say here! Nicely stated.
    Last edited by PushSmasher; 12-10-2020 at 02:55 PM.

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    #36
    The most calm and civil discussions about COVID19 I have seen. Been practicing with rebound board for 9 months, actually felt some improvements.

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    #37
    Quote Originally Posted by PushSmasher
    I wholeheartedly agree with everything you say here! Nicely stated.
    Good you do. I think that if anything is stated, it needs to be checked against the facts. Maybe the US might see enough deaths in the future to have the largest Covid19 crisis in the world. Maybe the total number is all that matters though the context is for a country is the 3rd most populous country in the world.

    But no, if you look at it on a per capita basis, the US does not have the worst covid19 crisis in the world. We can review whether it does in January, February or March or later after the winter deaths pass through and all the testing has been completed. But whether the per capital rate is taken now or cumulatively, the US is not #1.

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/...n-inhabitants/

    The other thing to note is that influenza is down this year. Is it because influenza is being controlled by the measures established for covid19 while covid19 seems not to be? Or is it because covid19 has pushed influenza out in a Darwinian competition for hosts? Or is it that current incentives are to test more for covid19 than influenza and that misses out on cases on influenza if they are less prevalent?

    In any case, any assessment of covid19 that tries to be scientifically accurate, given that influenza and covid19 largely kill the same kinds of people even if they have different age-related impacts, should account for the loss of influenza (and other ILIs) as a cause of death as well as the growth of covid19. Maybe it will pick up later, but people should track this.
    https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden...-estimates.htm
    Update as of December 3, 2020: The model used to generate influenza in-season preliminary burden estimates uses current season flu hospitalization data. Reported flu hospitalizations are too low at this time to generate an estimate.
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    #38
    Once you have 60k cases per day you are ****ed as a country and all that remains is individual damage limitation. The countries that succeeded best did so by massive initial testing paired with short total, enforced localized lockdowns. Then after breaking the virus they have been doing test and trace and individual/contact quarantines, again seriously enforced. The US had a short window last January to act intelligently and responsibly to protect our citizens and failed utterly.

    Now it is every man for himself, the way we as a society like it -- maximum cost, maximum suffering, maximum blaming of mostly blameless (to NL's point) individuals, who are simply caught in a disaster that was inevitable in our selfish, ****ed-up, failed country.

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    #39
    Quote Originally Posted by NextLevel
    I agree with the thrust of what you are saying. That said, I don't think they "forget", to be honest. Many people are doing the best they can with the recommendations/mandates and I suspect when they realize that their control over the spread of Covid19 is not as strong as they think it is, more and more events will be cancelled. I am hoping the vaccine will get us out of this mess soon.
    Let me give you an example of "forget/forgot".

    If you are in the hall with no one else in it at that very moment.
    Would you take your masks off?

    I know a lot of people will do so, because for them, it is "safe to do so".
    The problem is they not thinking about the invisible enemy. So that is why I shared the research paper.
    I mean, over a dozen places, including the airvent filter are "deadly".

    Now the control measures - i'm not sure if they are cleaning the tables with alcohol after every match.
    The surrounds, the net, the everything that a player could force droplet to travel - especially with Harimoto like players

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    #40
    Quote Originally Posted by PeteMauss
    From Dec. 1st CDC Science Update on Danish mask study.

    Key findings:


    • 42 (1.8%) participants in the “mask recommendation” group were diagnosed with SARS-CoV-2 compared to 53 (2.1%) participants in the control group (OR = 0.82, 95% CI 0.54-1.23, p = 0.33).

    Methods: Randomized controlled trial of 4,862 adults from April to June 2020 in Denmark to assess if surgical mask use reduced the wearers’ risk for SARS-CoV-2 infection. Participants in the mask group were instructed to wear a mask when outside the home during the next month. Primary outcome was SARS-CoV-2 infection diagnosed through self-collected specimens for serology and PCR or by a healthcare provider. During the study, mask use was uncommon in the community, there was no official recommendation for mask wearing, other public health prevention interventions were recommended, and community prevalence was 2%.

    Limitations: Self-reported primary outcome data; 46% self-reported mask use; did not assess the role of masks in source control; unblinded study could not control for disinhibition or increased risk taking from wearing a mask; study designed to detect 50% decrease in acquisition of infection and not powered to detect smaller differences in transmission between arms.

    Implications: While this trial of mask-wearing suggests that masks do not protect the wearer from SARS-CoV-2 infection, Laine et alexternal icon. emphasize that it neither addresses mask-wearing as source control nor definitively shows that masks do not protect the wearer due to 46% adherence to mask-wearing. Frieden et al.external icon point out the limitations of using antibody tests with specificity of 97.5% as the primary measure of “infection” in this study.

    1) asking a country that has never learned to use masks correctly to do a study on, is just like asking a coach to do spin research on garage/basement players...

    2) you could wear PPE the whole day when you out, but to get home and get infected by your family member

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