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  1. yoass is offline
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    #101

    Covid-19 outbreak at US table tennis tournament

    Brokenball, you keep pointing fingers elsewhere, even hinting at xenophobic slurs.

    Your freedom to move your fist ends where my nose starts. You’re free to smoke, but not on the bus.

    Your behaviour is not setting a good example. You make it sound like a tough guy boast; but it is simply irresponsible.

    One may carry, even unknowingly, and infect many. These many may infect many more. At the out of control stage (where we are now) it’s even more important to regain a foothold.

    You’re well on the way to 400.000 deaths. The US is now experiencing over one 9/11 every day. But that’s just deaths, and there’s so much more to it.

    I write this while on morfine, with pains barely manageable even so, and unable to walk. And I’m not fingerpointing to China. I’m blaming “screw the virus” people like you.

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    Last edited by yoass; 12-17-2020 at 12:20 PM.

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    #102
    No one should really be finger pointing to anyone when it comes to how the virus has spread. Pandemics like this have been a feature of history from time immemorial . People have caught these things seasonally for centuries and everyone sort of agreed that they were part of life.

    The change has been how we now think about these things - not sure if it is technological hubris or just politics. The whole politicization of this into a disease which pits people against each other and grandparents against children is something that has puzzled me. People never used to blame each other that much for passing on colds and flus, yet a virus that is essentially like those even if a bit more deadly and dangerous and which now seems to have replaced them as the primary ILI in circulation is now being assigned a moral status that we would have found crazy to assign to colds and flus just a year ago.

    Maybe growing up in Africa (where diseases are part of life) and living with physical ailments (thankfully not so debliltating that they prevent simple pleasures but knowing that my future years will be hard) for decades that represent the prime of my life has made me more humble. Knowing that at some point, I just won't be able to use my fingers and wrists has been in my mind for 10 years now so I try to do things that I know I might not be able to do in the future.

    Society would collapse if people didn't do garbage collection, Fedex jobs etc, medical treatment etc. in person. Those people are exposing themselves everyday to the virus. They aren't being paid extra money to do so for the most part. And most of them aren't in the press advocating for themselves about how they are exposed to the virus (other than maybe the medical doctors). Many people can't really choose their luck. Do what you can and leave the rest to God, destiny, whatever. These things have always had a disproportionate impact on the poor for various reasons. And rather than take an approach catered to the risk profiles of people, we are using a universal approach which still tends to end up leaving the poor and those without advocates disproportionately impacted.

    Let's hope the vaccines get us out of this mess fairly quickly.
    Last edited by NextLevel; 12-17-2020 at 10:37 AM.
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  3. Baal is offline
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    #103
    Quote Originally Posted by brokenball
    I am 67 years old. I have multiple risk factors. Yet I have not been hiding in my shell. I have been going to work. When the going gets tough the tough keep going. This is the way it must be for society to survive...

    Yes, more people would die but they are mostly older people that aren't productive anyway and just consuming resourses. They probably were weak from some othe ailment.

    I played TT for 1.5 hours today. Screw the virus. Freedom and your rights should come first.
    Meanwhile the LA Times reported yesterday that the state of California had to put in an order for 5,000 more body bags because they had almost run out.

    There is a real difference between someone who has to work in potentially dangerous situations (schools, hospitals, for example -- even grocery stores) and people who intentionally and stupidly put themselves into dangerous situations because they think they are Rambo. (Notice in Rambo movies that even when the bad guys are spraying machine guns at him they always seem to miss?)

    And yet, make no mistake, if brokenball were to catch the virus he would certainly not hesitate to go to the hospital, consume those resources, and of course add to the risk that people there face.

    The stupidity and arrogance is stunning in its scope. Oh, and by the way, this thread started with a report of a substantial Covid-19 outbreak at a TT facility!!!! (Brokenball will undoubtedly reply that he didn't play at an actual CLUB mind you).

    (Not to mention the sheer awfulness of the implication that unless you are "productive" your life has less value).

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    Last edited by Baal; 12-17-2020 at 01:55 PM.

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    #104
    Quote Originally Posted by NextLevel
    Since Baal is the expert (and any other experts is free to defend him), where is the science on lockdowns in the literature on handling pandemics for influenza? What analysis does one perform to determine whether lockdowns are the best approach to containing a virus like covid19? Obviously policy isn't 100% science, but it would help to know what considerations make lockdown recommended for this virus and not say other viruses that we have had experience with.
    It is not appropriate to compare Covid-19 with any influenza that I am aware of for one crucial reason: SARS-COV-2 can be readily and efficiently spread by asymptomatic people and people whose symptoms are so minor that they don't yet know they have it. This does not happen with flu, and in fact wasn't a feature of SARS, which made it easier to control; otherwise it would have hammered the planet like this coronavirus.

    At the same time, the vast majority of data suggest Covid-19 is far more dangerous (especially since what is probably the best therapy, the monoclonal antibodies, is almost impossible to source).

    Lockdowns clearly fail at some point because people won't tolerate them. I'm not claiming to have answers to that. I know how complex this is.

    But in the US people do really idiotic things that spread the virus as a sign of macho tribal and religious identification. Sadly, it didn't have to be that way. And that in particular is what I object to. People behaving like selfish fools, or cult like following of leaders who spread disinformation because they think it is in their personal interest. And in this thread, disingenuous posting, in proof of Dunning and Kruger.

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    Last edited by Baal; 12-17-2020 at 02:53 PM.

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    #105
    Quote Originally Posted by yoass
    Brokenball, you keep pointing fingers elsewhere, even hinting at xenophobic slurs.

    Your freedom to move your fist ends where my nose starts. You’re free to smoke, but not on the bus.

    Your behaviour is not setting a good example. You make it sound like a tough guy boast; but it is simply irresponsible.

    One may carry, even unknowingly, and infect many. These many may infect many more. At the out of control stage (where we are now) it’s even more important to regain a foothold.

    You’re well on the way to 400.000 deaths. The US is now experiencing over one 9/11 every day. But that’s just deaths, and there’s so much more to it.

    I write this while on morfine, with pains barely manageable even so, and unable to walk. And I’m not fingerpointing to China. I’m blaming “screw the virus” people like you.
    Yoass, I am sorry to hear about your situation and wish the speediest and fullest recovery to you and yours.

    If it is any comic relief in the meantime, you can look back on brokenball's know-it-all predictions from earlier in the year and see how those turned out.

    https://www.tabletennisdaily.com/for...300#post306300

    Quote Originally Posted by brokenball
    Once COVID-19 spreads to a third world nation it is all over. I am willing to bet that those that say 60% of the population will get COVID-19 are right.

    The spanish flu kill 50 million people and 675,000 in the US.

    I have my truck camper and will go into the hills/forest if COVID-19 arrives here. If I prepare correctly I should be able to spend a month easily, maybe two in the sticks. Where I camp there is no cell or TV service, electricity and water unless you want to climb down a canyon.

    Weather may play a big part but if warm weather doesn't slow or stop the virus then I think the 2020 olympics are finished.

    I find that WION on YouTube give pretty good information if you can understand the Indian accent.
    NTD is good too.
    ARIRANG
    I find the governments and MSM are not willing to tell the truth yet.

    One thing that gets report wrong is the percentage of deaths. They always report the ratio of deaths to infected.
    That is wrong. They should report the deaths to survivors. The number of survivors are much fewer.
    In other words, the media lies.


    Quote Originally Posted by brokenball
    The WHO is a political organization. It has kowtowed to the Chinese government. I have no respect for the WHO.
    The 2% death rate is not accurate but it seems to vary depending on where you are and what kind of care is available. I said above that one must compare outcomes which is survivors to deaths. Then you will see the death rate is much higher. Also, the crematoriums in Wuhan are running 24/7 with 4 times the normal activity. This does not correlate with the official Chinese claims.

    China is also cracking down on any negative reporting on how it is handling the virus.

    Baal should explain what R0 or R naught is and how it is used to compute the spread of a virus. I know he has access to this type of data or those that know.

    I can do the math/simulation if provided good information. What I do know is that you are being kept in the dark and lied to. Even some of the doctors on YouTube are interpreting the data incorrectly.

    So far I think we are screwed if isolation breaks down.


    Quote Originally Posted by brokenball
    That means 2200/(16000+2200) have died. That means 12% have died. The infected are just awaiting which outcome they will fall into. That is much more than 2%
    The media, doctors and governments are lying.
    I have said many times. I am very good at analyzing things. It doesn't seem to make much difference what it is. Just give me the numbers.

    BTW, I am pretty sure Baal work in an area in SE Houston that is a medical area. There is a light rail that runs through the area. One can see the workers commuting in their medical garb. Normally one thinks of Houston as being a center for oil companies but it is also a medical a center.
    Quote Originally Posted by brokenball
    Yes, but I agree with Baal this time.

    I just wish I could get away with it because I see a lot of moronic things posted on TT forums.
    I could make a long list. If you ever wanted to see a hot topic, I can provide one.

    Just because you see some information on the net doesn't mean it is correct. You need to look for credible sources.


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  6. NextLevel is offline
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    #106
    Quote Originally Posted by Baal
    It is not appropriate to compare Covid-19 with any influenza that I am aware of for one crucial reason: SARS-COV-2 can be readily and efficiently spread by asymptomatic people and people whose symptoms are so minor that they don't yet know they have it. This does not happen with flu, and in fact wasn't a feature of SARS, which made it easier to control; otherwise it would have hammered the planet like this coronavirus.

    At the same time, the vast majority of data suggest Covid-19 is far more dangerous (especially since what is probably the best therapy, the monoclonal antibodies, is almost impossible to source).

    Lockdowns clearly fail at some point because people won't tolerate them. I'm not claiming to have answers to that. I know how complex this is.

    But in the US people do really idiotic things that spread the virus as a sign of macho tribal and religious identification. Sadly, it didn't have to be that way. And that in particular is what I object to. People behaving like selfish fools, or cult like following of leaders who spread disinformation because they think it is in their personal interest. And in this thread, disingenuous posting, in proof of Dunning and Kruger.
    If it was shown either that the flu spread asymptomatically or that SarsCov2 didn't spread asymptomatically, would you change your mind?

    https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-03141-3

    Accepting your position, if the literature on influenza doesn't show a significant positive effect for masking, why should we expect masks to have significant positive effect for SarsCov2?

    I don't know anyone who spreads the virus as a sign of tribal or religious identification. Everyone I know tries to avoid the virus unless they think it doesn't exist, which is a different problem. That said, SarsCov2 has a clear risk profile and is less deadly than the flu for some age groups and deadlier than the flu for others. What should be discerned is what do we know is effective based on the evidence we have collected about the virus?
    Last edited by NextLevel; 12-17-2020 at 03:49 PM.
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    #107
    Quote Originally Posted by zyu81
    Yoass, I am sorry to hear about your situation and wish the speediest and fullest recovery to you and yours.

    If it is any comic relief in the meantime, you can look back on brokenball's know-it-all predictions from earlier in the year and see how those turned out.

    https://www.tabletennisdaily.com/for...300#post306300



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    Which is part of the issue, but I will leave that for another time. I don't think anyone who is familiar with brokenball wouldn't treat him sympathetically for reasons beyond his control.
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    #108
    Quote Originally Posted by Baal
    It is not appropriate to compare Covid-19 with any influenza that I am aware of for one crucial reason: SARS-COV-2 can be readily and efficiently spread by asymptomatic people and people whose symptoms are so minor that they don't yet know they have it. This does not happen with flu, and in fact wasn't a feature of SARS, which made it easier to control; otherwise it would have hammered the planet like this coronavirus.

    At the same time, the vast majority of data suggest Covid-19 is far more dangerous (especially since what is probably the best therapy, the monoclonal antibodies, is almost impossible to source).

    Lockdowns clearly fail at some point because people won't tolerate them. I'm not claiming to have answers to that. I know how complex this is.

    But in the US people do really idiotic things that spread the virus as a sign of macho tribal and religious identification. Sadly, it didn't have to be that way. And that in particular is what I object to. People behaving like selfish fools, or cult like following of leaders who spread disinformation because they think it is in their personal interest. And in this thread, disingenuous posting, in proof of Dunning and Kruger.
    Yep, the thing with SARS, it would kill you before you had the chance to spread it on.
    The asymptomatic and the long incubation period is what makes covid19 a threat and the reasons of strict control measures.

    But then again, you just need some idiots and all sacrifices from everyone means nothing.
    How long can the health care force continue at such crazy density?

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    #109
    Quote Originally Posted by NextLevel
    If it was shown either that the flu spread asymptomatically or that SarsCov2 didn't spread asymptomatically, would you change your mind?

    https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-03141-3

    Accepting your position, if the literature on influenza doesn't show a significant positive effect for masking, why should we expect masks to have significant positive effect for SarsCov2?

    I don't know anyone who spreads the virus as a sign of tribal or religious identification. Everyone I know tries to avoid the virus unless they think it doesn't exist, which is a different problem. That said, SarsCov2 has a clear risk profile and is less deadly than the flu for some age groups and deadlier than the flu for others. What should be discerned is what do we know is effective based on the evidence we have collected about the virus?
    i've seen some research and data years ago about masks in asia.
    to curb influenza and such

    so if your theory that masks is useless in virus spreading prevention, then why over 1.5 billion people are taught about using masks since a young age for exactly that reason?
    Are they 1.5 billion brainless?

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    #110
    Quote Originally Posted by zyu81
    Yoass, I am sorry to hear about your situation and wish the speediest and fullest recovery to you and yours.

    If it is any comic relief in the meantime, you can look back on brokenball's know-it-all predictions from earlier in the year and see how those turned out.

    https://www.tabletennisdaily.com/for...300#post306300



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    this is funny

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    #111
    Quote Originally Posted by CoachTony
    i've seen some research and data years ago about masks in asia.
    to curb influenza and such

    so if your theory that masks is useless in virus spreading prevention, then why over 1.5 billion people are taught about using masks since a young age for exactly that reason?
    Are they 1.5 billion brainless?
    Feel free to present the studies then. I am always open to what people present. I mean, lots of people are trained to do and believe in all kinds of things, so I am not sure why you make that an argument. After all lots of people are trained to shake hands in the US and that should spread diseases. Were they brainless for shaking hands all those years before 2020 and covid19?

    The question of how respiratory diseases spread (including influenza and coronaviruses) is a complicated one. People believe all kinds of things that are best subjected to experiments. The mechanism for how masks would help is clear, but when they are used in broader populations (after all, they are in use in Japan and South Korea today, and both countries are seeing rising coronavirus cases right now), the evidence suggests that if they have any effect on spread, the effect is at best small because masks have limitations.

    https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/5/19-0994_article

    For influenza, the effect is at best small. Conclusions like the ones in this paper were pretty typical when one looked at RCTs and most of the evidence that suggested masks could help often came from case studies or observational evidence. So it was usually a "if you are contagious or in the presence of others, feel free to wear a mask." But when you look at cities that wear masks and compare them to cities that do not, with controls etc., you don't get the impacts that some people are claiming.
    Last edited by NextLevel; 12-17-2020 at 07:17 PM.
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  12. Baal is offline
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    #112
    All of my future posts will be on the curated SARS-COV2 thread. I will close out here by quoting from the little review NL posts in a bizarre attempt to refute the idea that asymptomatic or presymptomatic spread of COVID-19 occurs. In there we read:

    "Although there is a lower risk of transmission from asymptomatic people, they might still present a significant public-health risk because they are more likely to be out in the community than isolated at home, says Andrew Azman, an infectious-disease epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health in Baltimore, Maryland, who is based in Switzerland and was a co-author on the study. “The actual public-health burden of this massive pool of interacting ‘asymptomatics’ in the community probably suggests that a sizeable portion of transmission events are from asymptomatic transmissions,” he says."

    This is a unique feature of this virus and the biology behind it is quite puzzling ( as is the phenomenon of the superspreader). SARS was different..Asymptomatic or presymptomatic people can spread Covid-19, even if they are not shedding as much virus as they might later on when they feel like crap.

    ============

    Too many people refuse to wear masks because of their political or religious beliefs. They are spreading this virus as a result, and EVERY credible public health authority takes this position. Of course some non credible ones like Scott Atlas don't. Too many people who insist on gathering in large groups indoors are following cues from certain leaders, political and religious. It resembles behavior of a cult. It makes things worse. Too often other people pay the price.

    If you dispute that this is happening you are simply making a fool of yourself. Or more of one.

    If people want to see what I have to say, it will be on the other thread.
    Last edited by Baal; 12-18-2020 at 01:00 AM.

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    #113
    Quote Originally Posted by Baal
    All of my future posts will be on the curated SARS-COV2 thread. I will close out here by quoting from the little review NL posts in a bizarre attempt to refute the idea that asymptomatic or presymptomatic spread of COVID-19 occurs. In there we read:

    "Although there is a lower risk of transmission from asymptomatic people, they might still present a significant public-health risk because they are more likely to be out in the community than isolated at home, says Andrew Azman, an infectious-disease epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health in Baltimore, Maryland, who is based in Switzerland and was a co-author on the study. “The actual public-health burden of this massive pool of interacting ‘asymptomatics’ in the community probably suggests that a sizeable portion of transmission events are from asymptomatic transmissions,” he says."

    This is a unique feature of this virus and the biology behind it is quite puzzling ( as is the phenomenon of the superspreader). SARS was different..Asymptomatic or presymptomatic people can spread Covid-19, even if they are not shedding as much virus as they might later on when they feel like crap.

    ============

    Too many people refuse to wear masks because of their political or religious beliefs. They are spreading this virus as a result, and EVERY credible public health authority takes this position. Of course some non credible ones like Scott Atlas don't. Too many people who insist on gathering in large groups indoors are following cues from certain leaders, political and religious. It resembles behavior of a cult. It makes things worse. Too often other people pay the price.

    If you dispute that this is happening you are simply making a fool of yourself. Or more of one.

    If people want to see what I have to say, it will be on the other thread.
    Baal,

    You don't have to post here anymore but I asked you 2 simple questions:

    1. If asymptomatic spread (which is not the same as pre-symptomatic spread) was shown to be a completely insignificant driver of disease spread (almost zero), or if it was shown that influenza also spreads asymptomatically, would your position on the virus change? I ask this question to understand how dependent your view of the virus is on this being a unique property of SarsCov2.

    The thing is this - there are no good papers/studies on asymptomatic spread and its prevalence. The experts in the article are giving opinions like any expert can, including you. Expert opinion is still opinion - experimental evidence is sorely lacking.

    And I posted that Nature article to show that over time, people have continued to revise downwards their estimates for the prevalence of asymptomatic spread. There was a recent meta-analysis that gave it an almost 0% impact. We remember the WHO press conference which got hammered. Then tnere is this below.
    https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...rticle/2774102
    So I want to know how much asymptomatic transmission plays a role in how you think the virus should be handled. If we find out that asymptomatic transmission is nothing special about this virus, would it affect how you regarded the pandemic and how you felt it should be handled?

    If there are good papers (not using models) which show a significant effect of asymptomatic spread, I am interested in them.

    Superspreading is not something that started with SarsCov2
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4209160/
    Influenza was also supposed to be transmitted asymptomatically but that has been called into question.
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2646474/

    2. If masks have been shown in RCTs not to work for influenza, why do you presume that they work for covid19? Or is your view that they work for influenza and that the evidemce garnered from RCTs is flawed? No one can test masks as source control but there is clear evidence that mask mandates are not effective enough without social distancing to prevent the spread of cases and reduce the impact of covid19 on the population. If everyone was doing high quality KN95s and changing them upon contamination, it would be one thing. But what we get is this uneasy and untested mix of people using all kinds of masks, using the improperly and in some case using masks that may nebulize viruses and create aerosols. And what we are left is is the use of masks as political significance symbols. Or have cloth masks been good enough to use in hospital settings and we have just been confused all this time?
    Here was the latest (2020) of many papers which reviewed or reported on RCTs and found masks to have zero to a very small effect for influenza.
    https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/...111/jebm.12381

    As someone who calls himself a scientist, your repeated reliance on authority *opinions* is puzzling. That said, I understand that the opinions of experts do sway people who are not used to asking for evidence.

    BTW, are Jay Bhattacharya, Martin Kulldorf and Sunetra Gupta not credible public health authorities?

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-to-...th-11608230214

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    #114
    Flu & Covid19 are not transmitted airborne but via contact with surfaces contaminated by droplets. Why are, disproportionately, so much discussion just on masks? They’re a last line of defence, and ONLY if the proper masks are used, and wore PROPERLY, and handled intelligently. (btw the separation distance data is ancient )
    I couldn’t find a thread on the ‘tools’ of transmission (ie hands). Where is the thread on gloves? Even cheap disposable food handlers gloves (Walmart sells them $6/100). The ones mandatory on uncooked food like sushi, Subway sandwich shops. Have you considered what is the safest way of exiting a public washroom in a mall? On public transports, even with limited seating only, space separated ones? What are the safe handling procedures in a grocery store? (some Chinese grocery stores in Vancouver now require gloves for entry, based on experience from China they claimed ). How about daily carry hand sanitizers?
    Would appreciate it if one can redirect/link me to that thread in this forum. Apologies for off topic, moderators can delete this if deemed necessary.
    Last edited by Tempest/Comet; 12-18-2020 at 11:44 AM.

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    #115
    Quote Originally Posted by Tempest/Comet
    Flu & Covid19 are not transmitted airborne but via contact with surfaces contaminated by droplets. Why are, disproportionately, so much discussion just on masks? They’re a last line of defence, and ONLY if the proper masks are used, and wore PROPERLY, and handled intelligently. (btw the separation distance data is ancient )
    I couldn’t find a thread on the ‘tools’ of transmission (ie hands). Where is the thread on gloves? Even cheap disposable food handlers gloves (Walmart sells them $6/100). The ones mandatory on uncooked food like sushi, Subway sandwich shops. Have you considered what is the safest way of exiting a public washroom in a mall? On public transports, even with limited seating only, space separated ones? What are the safe handling procedures in a grocery store? (some Chinese grocery stores in Vancouver now require gloves for entry, based on experience from China they claimed ). How about daily carry hand sanitizers?
    Would appreciate it if one can redirect/link me to that thread in this forum. Apologies for off topic, moderators can delete this if deemed necessary.
    This is misinformation.

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  16. Baal is offline
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    #116
    Quote Originally Posted by NextLevel
    Baal,

    You don't have to post here anymore but I asked you 2 simple questions:

    1. If asymptomatic spread (which is not the same as pre-symptomatic spread) was shown to be a completely insignificant driver of disease spread (almost zero), or if it was shown that influenza also spreads asymptomatically, would your position on the virus change? I ask this question to understand how dependent your view of the virus is on this being a unique property of SarsCov2.

    The thing is this - there are no good papers/studies on asymptomatic spread and its prevalence. The experts in the article are giving opinions like any expert can, including you. Expert opinion is still opinion - experimental evidence is sorely lacking.

    And I posted that Nature article to show that over time, people have continued to revise downwards their estimates for the prevalence of asymptomatic spread. There was a recent meta-analysis that gave it an almost 0% impact. We remember the WHO press conference which got hammered. Then tnere is this below.
    https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...rticle/2774102
    So I want to know how much asymptomatic transmission plays a role in how you think the virus should be handled. If we find out that asymptomatic transmission is nothing special about this virus, would it affect how you regarded the pandemic and how you felt it should be handled?

    If there are good papers (not using models) which show a significant effect of asymptomatic spread, I am interested in them.

    Superspreading is not something that started with SarsCov2
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4209160/
    Influenza was also supposed to be transmitted asymptomatically but that has been called into question.
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2646474/

    2. If masks have been shown in RCTs not to work for influenza, why do you presume that they work for covid19? Or is your view that they work for influenza and that the evidemce garnered from RCTs is flawed? No one can test masks as source control but there is clear evidence that mask mandates are not effective enough without social distancing to prevent the spread of cases and reduce the impact of covid19 on the population. If everyone was doing high quality KN95s and changing them upon contamination, it would be one thing. But what we get is this uneasy and untested mix of people using all kinds of masks, using the improperly and in some case using masks that may nebulize viruses and create aerosols. And what we are left is is the use of masks as political significance symbols. Or have cloth masks been good enough to use in hospital settings and we have just been confused all this time?
    Here was the latest (2020) of many papers which reviewed or reported on RCTs and found masks to have zero to a very small effect for influenza.
    https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/...111/jebm.12381

    As someone who calls himself a scientist, your repeated reliance on authority *opinions* is puzzling. That said, I understand that the opinions of experts do sway people who are not used to asking for evidence.

    BTW, are Jay Bhattacharya, Martin Kulldorf and Sunetra Gupta not credible public health authorities?

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-to-...th-11608230214
    About me: I have authored 120 peer reviewed scientific publications. I have been principal investigator on NIH grants totalling more than 12 million USD. 18 students have earned PhD degrees under my direct supervision. Once per week I attend a meeting about local conditions to advice the administration of my university what steps to take. I think gat to call myself a scientist NL.

    You however are not a scientist, and you are continuing to misrepresent the articles you cite, for example the one you just cited on masks in influenza,, which concludes that there is no advantage of N95 vs surgical mask in hospital transmitted influenza -- NOT that masks fail to prevent spread of airborne respiratory viruses. Totally different questions, but most people on this thread aren't going to click those links and see how full of $hi+ you are.

    The opinion piece by Bhattachaya et al. is primarily about vaccine distribution, not anything we've discussed here. God only knows what you are getting at there, but those authors would undoubtedly conclude that unmasked indoor social gatherings are a really bad idea and that Covid-19 can produce unpredictable health effects even in occasional young people -- who can also spread it to other more vulnerable people. For sure, a complete lockdown can be avoided if people avoid being idiots.

    Again, when I argue that things like masks work, it is not one study, it is hundreds which address different aspects of the problem, no single one of which is definitive in and of itself, but nearly all point in the same direction.

    People like you are dangerous and dangerously deluded. This is not the flu. Its pathology is different and its epidemiology is more severe, at since 1918.

    300,000+ dead people can't be wrong.
    Last edited by Baal; 12-18-2020 at 01:41 PM.

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    #117
    Quote Originally Posted by Baal
    This is misinformation.
    I’ll rephrase this. Mask is a valid line of defence if you happen to walk through suspended vapours of droplets. It is the last line of defence in a crowed/enclosed space. Also if a carrier coughs in your path, or you’re yourself a carrier.
    There is also a greater risk if you remove the contaminated mask with your bare hands without sanitizing them, exiting that scene.
    My point is in a place where people congregate, like in a bookstore or grocery store, emitted droplets landing on surfaces which other people may subsequently touch with their bare hands, pose as great, if not greater danger of contracting the virus, than walking past a suspended aerosol cloud (the virus last longer on surfaces than as a vapour cloud). And yet I saw no discussions on preventive measures when it comes to transmission via hands. My questions regarding hands, and using disposable gloves, in the same vein as masks, still stands. I don’t think the intelligent and the correct protocol in the use of gloves as a preventive measure has been adequately addressed as widely as masks.
    (Requiring gloves for entry is not misinformation, I was there. Pls PM me should you deigned not to reply here.Thnx.)
    Last edited by Tempest/Comet; 12-18-2020 at 03:12 PM.

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    #118
    hi carl
    i thought your policy of keeping wild covid theorists from diluting the messaging from Baal dr evil et alia was spot on
    too many egos at work here distracting from the main issue- stay safe!
    Last edited by pingpongpaddy; 12-18-2020 at 02:46 PM.
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  19. NextLevel is offline
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    #119
    Quote Originally Posted by Baal
    About me: I have authored 120 peer reviewed scientific publications. I have been principal investigator on NIH grants totalling more than 12 million USD. 18 students have earned PhD degrees under my direct supervision. Once per week I attend a meeting about local conditions to advice the administration of my university what steps to take. I think gat to call myself a scientist NL.

    You however are not a scientist, and you are continuing to misrepresent the articles you cite, for example the one you just cited on masks in influenza,, which concludes that there is no advantage of N95 vs surgical mask in hospital transmitted influenza -- NOT that masks fail to prevent spread of airborne respiratory viruses. Totally different questions, but most people on this thread aren't going to click those links and see how full of $hi+ you are.

    The opinion piece by Bhattachaya et al. is primarily about vaccine distribution, not anything we've discussed here. God only knows what you are getting at there, but those authors would undoubtedly conclude that unmasked indoor social gatherings are a really bad idea and that Covid-19 can produce unpredictable health effects even in occasional young people -- who can also spread it to other more vulnerable people. For sure, a complete lockdown can be avoided if people avoid being idiots.

    Again, when I argue that things like masks work, it is not one study, it is hundreds which address different aspects of the problem, no single one of which is definitive in and of itself, but nearly all point in the same direction.

    People like you are dangerous and dangerously deluded. This is not the flu. Its pathology is different and its epidemiology is more severe, at since 1918.

    300,000+ dead people can't be wrong.
    If you read the paper, which is a meta-analysis (so it isn't just one study that is driving the result), you would have noted the conclusion that the lack of a significant advantage of a high quality respirator over a surgical mask in protecting the user from viral illness says something about the effectiveness of masks. The effects for bacterial infections was significant, but for viral infections it wasn't. If you want to use a parochial interpretation of the study to dismiss its implications on the effectiveness of mask usage, especially in far-less well-fitted and trained populations of users, that is fine. But that was the main point from the study I wanted to highlight.

    If that is too much of a stretch, here is another meta-analysis. I can't guarantee that there isn't overlap in the reviewed studies, but it speaks more to the advantages of masks over people not using them at all, but again, it is a limited effect.

    https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/65/11/1934/4068747

    Moreover, all the studies give admonitions against cloth masks and yet cloth masks are being commonly used and reused despite these admonitions, which gives the way the mandates are advocated questionable.

    And given the size of the effects in studies, even the ones that claim a positive effect for mask usage, you still haven't explained how this is reconciled with universal mask mandates and claims that masks would end the pandemic. I can understand why people might want to have faith in masks as a panacea for the pandemic. But everything should be driven by evidence. And the evidence for mask usage supports their use in clinical situations or with brief interactions, but not as a means for sanitizing an extended visit or interaction in a closed space. Yet this is how the masks are being sold to the general public.

    I don't doubt you are a professional scientist. I am just pointing out that you are doing and saying many things that are markedly unscientific. You are advocating something more akin to religious subservience when you claim that all the reliable public health experts say this and that and you also malign Scott Atlas who was part of Mitt Romney's medical policy team and has been discussing public health policy issues for a over a decade. Most of his views on the pandemic were informed by a a variety of experts including Bhattacharya, Kulldorff and Gupta. He got savaged by the press by advocating things like school re-opening and ideas in the Great Barrington Declaration.

    Bhattacharya, Kulldorff and Gupta are advocates of the Great Barrington Declaration and opponents of lockdown. Their position was that society should focus on protecting the vulnerable and allow the bulk of society to live their lives because the societal harm being done by lockdowns far outweighed their benefits. Part of this assessment was based on the position that very little can be done to mitigate the spread of the virus once it is in society unless you want to take actions that are hard to justify in terms of their effects on society.

    BTW, if unmasked indoor gatherings are not a good idea, I would also conclude that masked indoor gatherings are not a good idea. So what is your point?

    https://gbdeclaration.org/
    https://gbdeclaration.org/focused-protection/

    The article I posted from the WSJ was establish who these eminent minds are before you inevitably start trashing them with political insinuations and motivations. They were also presented as counterpoints to your view that there is a consensus amongst public health on the efficacy of lockdowns and/or test and trace as pandemic response measure.

    300,000 dead people is unfortunate. But what is also problematic is acting as if all those deaths were avoidable only if we did *this* (wore masks, social distanced etc.). There is no evidence of such success in *any* state in the US regardless of how they have approached the pandemic.

    Since you largely duck questions I have asked about asymptomatic spread: I would conclude that unmasked indoor gatherings are not a good idea. I would also conclude that masked indoor gatherings are not a good idea. So what is your point?

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  20. UpSideDownCarl is offline
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    #120
    Well, here is my feeling:

    This is a table tennis site. It is too bad this thread went so far afield from the original topic of how, at a table tennis tournament, the virus was spread.

    I believe CoVID is a hot button issue for many people as of now. But perhaps a table tennis site is not the right place to have this kind of discussion.

    I have been hoping for a while that things would cool off or right themselves. Unfortunately, they seem to be escalating instead.

    I do feel that, if this was a discussion about table tennis technique, we would look at the people with the higher level technique as having some kind of deeper insight into play. We may even ask some players who seem to not have things right for video footage for confirmation of their skill level.

    Unfortunately, it also seems there is something personal going on. So, I suggest, the personal issues should be dropped on both sides. You should each do your best to give the other the benefit of the doubt on issues that became personal. And seek to not tangle with each other for a few weeks so that things can cool down.

    With this in mind, I am now closing this thread.

    Please don't attempt to open a new CoVID thread. I may close the other CoVID thread for a week or so as well since I don't want fireworks to simply jump from this thread to that.

    Please consider the fact that this is a forum about table tennis. And only very few members on the forum actually have any real kind of expertise on the subject of viral infectious disease and its spread. But also, please try to keep in mind, no matter who is doing the writing, we don't want to inflame issues with personal comments.

    Thank you.

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