My predictions for the next couple of years

I am also going to throw in my ten cents worth of "clairvoyant vision", I believe in the singles it will definitely be ZJK (since he has a chance for double grand slam and China is very much into creating records and ZJK actually performs well when he is motivated and well Olympics is the biggest fish). The second spot will either be Ma Long or Xu Xin. Ma Long is technically stronger than Xu Xin at the moment (he holds a good record against Xu Xin and non-chinese players) but Xu Xin has the advantage of being a penhold player and is 2 years younger and I believe compared to Ma Long more mentally capable of surviving tough matches (many above have pointed out that China has always sent at least one penhold player in the past). I suspect very much their performance in WTTC in Suzhou 2015 will decide the second spot for Ma Long or Xu Xin.

I actually agree FZD is almost certain to surpass all the other 3 simply because he is so young and has fantastic potential and other much needed competitive qualities but I am sure LGL will not put him in singles because he is not yet stable enough, FZD has struggled a bit in Youth Olympics (although he got gold) and lost 2 points to Li Hu and Chen Feng (apologies if I got the names wrong) in the Asian Games teams event which is mostly due to nerves. LGL has already once kind of stuffed up with young Wang Hao in 2004 Olympic final against an in form awesome Ryu Seungmin (I believe significant factor for Wang Hao's loss was inexperience and nerves). That's a lesson for life for LGL so FZD will have to wait for 2020 before he gets chance (from an age perspective I think thats not a big problem for FZD). The only scenario where that may change is if FZD wins 2015 WTTC in Suzhou,then he stands a realistic chance of getting a singles Olympic berth.

I actually think the one most in danger is Ma Long, who really would be the best player in modern times never to play OG singles. By the way, to me it's quite clear that currently Xu Xin is better than FZD, if you look at recent matches they played although this may change already by 2016 OG. However experience and stability takes more time and the coaches trust takes even more so FZD in 2020

iammaru said:

I think when China chooses their players to send to OG, they will send players who can win non-Chinese players. They don't care much if another Chinese can beat Ma Long or Zhang Jike or Xu Xin, they only cares if he has a very high chance of beating all non-Chinese players. Fan ZhenDong is improving fast but he still too inexperienced and sometimes he still struggles against strange non-Chinese opponents that are well below his level (e.g. in Youth Olympics and Asian Games). If China sends a 19-years-old player to OG 2016, they can get another upset like Wang Hao in OG 2004.

FZD has an outside chance of making OG single but I think if Ma Long, Zhang Jike and XuXin can keep their current form, two of them will be in OG 2016 single. Perhaps Ma Long and Zhang Jike, they are still hungry for success and directly compete with each other. Zhang Jike wants to be the first ever to complete the second Grand Slam while Ma Long is desperate for a big title, especially after beating ZJK.

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I think its too soon to talk about this.
I think this all will be decided AFTER WTTC 2015..
There will we see who is capable of what..

Most top players are dominated by China now. I would love to see more Western players showing up at the Top 10 chart but I think it is not going to be seen in near future.

I guess I am going to add a few pieces of info. First, LGL does not determine who qualifies for Olympic Singles Event. The international Olympic Committee (IOC) does that. They do it through a qualification process.

For London 2012, the first 2 spots for any country were determined by world ranking (Provided the country had players in the top 28). The world ranking month used was June 2011 (the results directly after the 2011 WTTC). For Germany that meant that Timo Boll qualified 1st and Dima Qualified 2nd. For China that me at that Wang Hao qualified 1st and ZJK qualified 2nd.

After the first 2 spots, which were the only 2 spots for singles, there was a qualification round in March of 2012 for the 1 remaining spot. The person who won the qualification for that 3rd spot qualified to play teams. The next spot was a backup spot. Ma Long placed highest FOR CHINA (he lost to Koki Niwa who placed first but he placed highest for China) so he got the 3rd spot which qualified him to play in teams, BUT NOT IN SINGLES. Xu Xin placed 2nd for China and got the alternate spot which allowed him to go, sit on the bench and be a cheerleader. If someone from China were injured before the event and deemed incapable of playing by IOC PHYSICIANS BEFORE THE TEAM EVENT STARTED, then Xu Xin would have been the replacement. If IOC determined an injury was faked the team would be subject to disqualification.

So LGL did not have much choice in the matter. The spots for the Olympics are determined by a qualification process and the players who WON under pressure were rewarded. The players who did not were not rewarded. It sort of makes sense.

So the players who go to Rio in 2016 will be the ones who come through under pressure.

Those of you who remember Ma Long's amazing run of match wins in pro tour events that went from August 2011 to March of 2012, that was after ALL THE PRESSURE WAS OFF BECAUSE HE KNEW HE HAD FAILED TO QUALIFY FOR THE SINGLES EVENT IN THE 2012 Olympics.


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Okay, a bit more information. Have you ever played someone who did all these weird things that you were not good at that seem simple but are fairly technical and cause you to mess up and lose points that you feel you should not lose??? When that happens do you get upset and frustrated???

Okay, so here is the deal. The people who think Ma Long has the best technique on everything are missing an important detail. His forehand is amazing, his over the table loop on FH is amazing. His speed and mid-distance looping is amazing. But his ultra short game, at least until the LAST 9 MONTHS, has been weak.

So many people think Ma Long lost to Wang Hao because of NERVES THREE TIMES in the WTTC semi-finals. IT IS NOT TRUE. Wang Hao capitalized on Ma Long's only weakness: balls that are too short and low for him to flip or loop on the FH side. Only someone who is amazing at short game, who is a genius at short game could do that and break down Ma Long's whole game.

In regular pro tour events (or world tour as they now call it) Wang Hao would not use those techniques to win. So, then Ma Long wins in the small events. But in the REAL MAJOR events like WTTC, Wang Hao pulled them out and completely broke Ma Long's game down. He fell apart emotionally after Wang Hao broke apart Ma Long's game. It was not the other way around.

If you watch the 2013 WTTC semi-final match between Ma Long and Wang Hao, you can see than WH is making ML dump short balls into the net or pop them up over and over again. Then Ma Long started questioning and loading confidence in all his shots. In game 4&5 after WH had a 3-0 lead, WH stopped doing the short game and the JEDI MIND TRICK (that he also used on Yan An that year) and actually tried to beat ML while letting him play his game. He couldn't. ML won games 4&5 and looked great. Then in game 6 you can see WH went back to the short game and the Jedi Mind Trick and won that last game easily.

At the time Ma Long's ultra short game was just not good enough. But Wang Hao could not do that to ZJK and ZJK is great against that strategy and can give it right back. ZJK can do that same strategy against ML and in the bigger tournaments he does enough of it to win but he also wants to beat ML at what ML is best at. In smaller tournaments he just plays ML trying to best him head to head, strength against strength. But in the important tournaments ZJK will use the short game and the Jedi Mind Trick to win also.

The good news is, in the last 9 months Ma Long has gotten WAY better at the ultra short game and may be able to control the points when someone tried to use those techniques against him.

Only time will tell.


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UpSideDownCarl said:

I guess I am going to add a few pieces of info. First, LGL does not determine who qualifies for Olympic Singles Event. The international Olympic Committee (IOC) does that. They do it through a qualification process.

For London 2012, the first 2 spots for any country were determined by world ranking (Provided the country had players in the top 28). The world ranking month used was June 2011 (the results directly after the 2011 WTTC). For Germany that meant that Timo Boll qualified 1st and Dima Qualified 2nd. For China that me at that Wang Hao qualified 1st and ZJK qualified 2nd.

After the first 2 spots, which were the only 2 spots for singles, there was a qualification round in March of 2012 for the 1 remaining spot. The person who won the qualification for that 3rd spot qualified to play teams. The next spot was a backup spot. Ma Long placed highest FOR CHINA (he lost to Koki Niwa who placed first but he placed highest for China) so he got the 3rd spot which qualified him to play in teams, BUT NOT IN SINGLES. Xu Xin placed 2nd for China and got the alternate spot which allowed him to go, sit on the bench and be a cheerleader. If someone from China were injured before the event and deemed incapable of playing by IOC PHYSICIANS BEFORE THE TEAM EVENT STARTED, then Xu Xin would have been the replacement. If IOC determined an injury was faked the team would be subject to disqualification.

So LGL did not have much choice in the matter. The spots for the Olympics are determined by a qualification process and the players who WON under pressure were rewarded. The players who did not were not rewarded. It sort of makes sense.

So the players who go to Rio in 2016 will be the ones who come through under pressure.

Those of you who remember Ma Long's amazing run of match wins in pro tour events that went from August 2011 to March of 2012, that was after ALL THE PRESSURE WAS OFF BECAUSE HE KNEW HE HAD FAILED TO QUALIFY FOR THE SINGLES EVENT IN THE 2012 Olympics.


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Thanks for all the info, I just want to clarify something, does this mean that the top 2 ranked chinese player before a certain deadline before Rio 2016 qualifies for the singles and there will be a qualification for the 3rd place for the teams event? Also what happens if China sports team doesn't allow a particular player to go to Olympics (this is hypothetical question of course but seems possible) then surely they can name their own replacement? In other words are you saying China has no direct control over who takes part in the Olympics Singles TT as this process is purely dependent on world ittf ranking on a certain day (not counting artificial measures like intentionally getting players to certain ranking positions). Maybe I misunderstood something but this seems surprising to me...

Let me add something.

CNT management does play a role in who goes and who doesn't go. Both directly and indirectly.
An example of directly - Guo Yan case for London 2012

An example of indrectly - World Tour parcipation = points added/missed out = affecting world ranking

This is where it becomes unfair. Table Tennis is meant to be a sport for individuals, but the way ITTF is changing rules, everything is about the country. China this, China that. It should be more about player (look at Tennis, we don't say Russia this, America that)

So there is 2 things - which directly affects each other:
1) player good enough to go - meaning the player in form will win more matches to get the direct qualifications
2) player entrusted by CNT management to go - relating to results prior to the OG + condition of the player

I won't be suprised if Guo Yan incident happens in Rio 2016. But then again the London 2012 direct qualification was way too early and not fair imo

Here is the qualifying system of 2016 Rio and it is different from 2012 London: http://www.teamusa.org/~/media/USA_...-QualificationSystem-FINAL-TableTennis-EN.pdf With the new system LGL CAN CHOOSE to send who for the qualifying tournaments.

Thanks Alborz

By Jan 2015, we will know when is the 1st round (continential qualifications).
Qualification tournament will be held between 1 July 2015 till April 2016.

Imo July 2015 is a joke, surely 6 months (or less) prior to the tournament is better

Tony's Table Tennis said:

Thanks Alborz

By Jan 2015, we will know when is the 1st round (continential qualifications).
Qualification tournament will be held between 1 July 2015 till April 2016.

Imo July 2015 is a joke, surely 6 months (or less) prior to the tournament is better

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Totally accurate. This was the problem with them using world ranking from 15 months prior to the Olympics for 2012 for the only two spots in the singles competition.

MegaZZ said:

Thanks for all the info, I just want to clarify something, does this mean that the top 2 ranked chinese player before a certain deadline before Rio 2016 qualifies for the singles and there will be a qualification for the 3rd place for the teams event? Also what happens if China sports team doesn't allow a particular player to go to Olympics (this is hypothetical question of course but seems possible) then surely they can name their own replacement? In other words are you saying China has no direct control over who takes part in the Olympics Singles TT as this process is purely dependent on world ittf ranking on a certain day (not counting artificial measures like intentionally getting players to certain ranking positions). Maybe I misunderstood something but this seems surprising to me...

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My understanding is that the main way LGL was able to affect the system last time would have been by who he sent to international competitions which would enable players to raise their world ranking. But the players had to get the points for themselves by winning.

In 2012, if LGL had tried to pull Wang Hao out of the singles, (hoping to put Ma Long in), then 1) he would not have been able to put Ma Long in (unless the reason for Wang Hao's departure was health related, before the singles event started, and verified by IOC (International Olympic Committee) doctors to be a real and legitimate injury or health issue). If the IOC determined that LGL was just trying to change the roster to improve China's chances instead of for a valid injury, then only ZJK would have played the singles and China would not have been eligible to compete in the team event. Perhaps he could have figured out how to get around the rules. But it still would have been cheating based on what the rules were.

Tony's Table Tennis said:

CNT management does play a role in who goes and who doesn't go. Both directly and indirectly.
An example of directly - Guo Yan case for London 2012

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Hey Tony, I guess I don't really pay attention to women's tt. Fill us in. What happened in the case of Guo Yan?

Tony's Table Tennis said:

An example of indrectly - World Tour parcipation = points added/missed out = affecting world ranking

This is where it becomes unfair.

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This is 100% accurate. LGL can decide to send--or not to send--players to tournaments and then, if he does not send someone who could end up earning the points to qualify by world ranking, they can't get the points. CNT seems to always be playing with this and sending people they want to see higher in the rankings.

By the way, in 2010-2011 prior to the WTTCs, Ma Long was coming off approximately 7 months with almost no tournament play because of a series of injuries that kept him sidelined, which is why, after the WTTC in 2011 he was ranked 5th in the world. Only a few tournaments in 7 months and every time he tried to come back he got a new injury, caused his ranking to drop from 1 to 5. He only started playing again a short while before the 2011 WTTC.

But it looks like the IOC has corrected the issue of using world rankings from 15 months prior to the Olympics for qualification.

Alborz said:

Here is the qualifying system of 2016 Rio and it is different from 2012 London: http://www.teamusa.org/~/media/USA_...-QualificationSystem-FINAL-TableTennis-EN.pdf With the new system LGL CAN CHOOSE to send who for the qualifying tournaments.

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Thanks Alborz. I did not take the time to fully understand the qualification process. I could not tell if they are using Olympic Rankings over Qualification event results or the other way around. But, the Olympic Ranking system will be in place for the time period of January through May of 2016.

Well, Now I looked more closely.

Looking at it, it looks like the Qualification Events will determine the up to the first two spots in the Olympic Events. So, if China has a player who qualifies first and second (first and second for China regardless of other countries) (which is quite likely) then those two will be the ones who qualify for the singles event. A country like Japan could potentially have only one player (unlikely) qualify through through the Qualification events and still get two more players to qualify through the Olympic Ranking system which will be put in place between January 2016 and May 2016. So a country can conceivably have only one player qualify through the regional Qualification events and still end up with 3 players and an entry in the team event.

For each country, for each NOC (National Olympic Committee) only 2 players can qualify through the Regional Qualification Events. For each country only 2 players can qualify through the Olympic Ranking System. A country that has 2 players successfully qualify through the Regional Qualification Events can only have 1 player qualify through the Ranking system because each country only gets 2 for singles plus 1 more for team for a total of 3 players.

I believe the system that the first two players to qualify are still the only ones who are qualified for the singles. So, say, at the first qualification tournament (event), China sends ML, WH, FZD, ZJK, YA, and XX and FZD wins and ZJK comes in 2nd then FZD would qualify first and ZJK would qualify second, for the only 2 singles spots. Because they place 1st and second in that first Olympic Qualification event, then that is it. That is who goes to the Olympic Singles event.

And as Tony pointed out, it is a bit unfair because that first event will be in July of 2015 (12 months before the Olympic games). But that is 3 months better than the last time and at least it is a competition that determines the first two spots not world ranking at that time.

And, once the first two spots have been determined, I believe the only way to change it would be a real injury, or cheating. LGL could choose not to send people to the event if he does not want them to go to the Olympics. And that would be completely obvious to the whole world. Like, imagine if he sent ZJK, FZD and XX and did not send ML to that first qualification event. But in all likelyhood he will send those guys, and Yan An and Wang Hao too, and let the best men win. I feel bad for the countries having to try and qualify in the regionals with China. But that is why the Qualification events will go on from July 2015 and April 2016. Once China has 2 players qualified which will probably be in July 2015, then I believe they will not need to send players to the events any more. In fact they may not be allowed to send players to qualification events after they have their two spots.

We will see how it all turns out. But, at least what will determine the first two spots is a Qualification event. I remember watching the North American qualification events rooting for my friend Michael Landers to qualify. They were fun and run differently than a regular tournament.

I also remember watching when Koki Niwa beat Ma Long to take the first spot in the Regional Qualifications for Asia. Ma Long still qualified second, but it was fun to watch.

Im hoping ML and XX will be play single at OG ZJK and FZD will be team

Looptheloop714 said:

Im hoping ML and XX will be play single at OG ZJK and FZD will be team

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Can't happen that way. The team is the two people from singles plus one more. Those are the rules.

Anyone knows how many players LGL can send to the qualification tournaments?

Alborz said:

Anyone knows how many players LGL can send to the qualification tournaments?

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Not sure if we will get info before it's schedule release in Jan 2015
Some how, something tells me it is gonig to be 2 players.

But then, you don't need to be top 2 to qualify, so they is much less pressure

I believe there will be a certain number that they can send, perhaps 3, 4 or 5. But once China has 2 players who qualify, which will probably be in the first event, then I don't believe they can send any others.


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UpSideDownCarl said:

I believe there will be a certain number that they can send, perhaps 3, 4 or 5. But once China has 2 players who qualify, which will probably be in the first event, then I don't believe they can send any others.


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The previous 3rd olympic spot singles qualification, China was only allowed to send 1 player as the qualification was for 1 player only

It won't make sense if all countries in Asia sends 4 to 5 players, that means top 16 will be fulled of Chinese, Koreans, Japanese etc and then your other countries qualifiers will be Top 16 loosers - how would you place them into qualificaiton order then?

If it is 2 per country, then they can do Top 8, unless they go into WTTC fight off into indididual ranking position that can produce Top 10 or Top 12 too

Tony's Table Tennis said:

The previous 3rd olympic spot singles qualification, China was only allowed to send 1 player as the qualification was for 1 player only

It won't make sense if all countries in Asia sends 4 to 5 players, that means top 16 will be fulled of Chinese, Koreans, Japanese etc and then your other countries qualifiers will be Top 16 loosers - how would you place them into qualificaiton order then?

If it is 2 per country, then they can do Top 8, unless they go into WTTC fight off into indididual ranking position that can produce Top 10 or Top 12 too

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I don't know how it will work. I believe China sent Ma Long and Xu Xin to qualify for the one remaining spot that China had last time. This time around, if China only is allowed to send 2 players to qualify in the first round, then Liu Gouliang will basically end up choosing who is going to the Olympics because, whoever he sends, if it is only two people, those two will most likely qualify in the first event and then China won't be able to send more. I could be totally wrong about that. It is a guess. But, I think that might be how it will work.

In the end, we will see how it really works.

I know USA and Canada both sent at least 3 and possibly 4 people to the North American Event to compete for the 3 slots that were slated for North American men. 2 Canadian players and 1 USA player went.

But, I was just trying to figure out how things will work based on what the rules are. We will see how it all sorts out. Perhaps you can't qualify in just the first event and have to place well in a few events. Again, we will see how they chose to organize things.