Who do you think will win the Korea Open 2018?

  • Dimitrij Ovtcharov

    Votes: 2 2.8%
  • Lin Gaoyuan

    Votes: 14 19.7%
  • Xu Xin

    Votes: 24 33.8%
  • Wong Chun Ting

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Lee Sangsu

    Votes: 1 1.4%
  • Koki Niwa

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Tomokazu Harimoto

    Votes: 19 26.8%
  • Hugo Calderano

    Votes: 4 5.6%
  • Simon Gauzy

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Other (Post Below)

    Votes: 7 9.9%

  • Total voters
    71
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His future looks very bright cause there's no one better than him and Lin Gaoyuan from the younger bunch.

His mental game is going to need work. Major surgery. That he lost to the Man of the Moment, Jang "The Conqueror" Woojin, won't help. I can't confirm but I really think Jang beat him in WJTTC singles years ago.

As for the younger bunch, let's see how Niu Guankai and others turn out. I do acknowledge what LGL said but there might be others in the pipeline.
 
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World #30 beat World#103 in the final.

The men's singles had several upsets based on rankings. No longer can a player play just 2-4 tour events a year to maintain his ranking. Now players are meeting in earlier rounds that didn't happen as much in the old rankings. So it is harder for CNT members to get their ranking up since they are knocking each other off in earlier rounds.

I like the new ranking system. It promotes participation in tour events.
 
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I think that one of the problems of the next generation/CNT B-team is that they lack experience in IMPORTANT international matches.

For many years, the policy of CNT was to send no more than 6-7 players to each World Tour event. And included in these 6-7 players were usually at least two of the Top 4 (Ma Long, Zhang Jike, Fan Zhendong and Xu Xin).

Because of this, the rest of CNT has suffered a bit in terms of:
1) limited possibilities for competing internationally - compared to basically ALL other foreign players.
2) VERY limited possibilities for actually WINNING events / gaining experience in "big games" like semi-finals/finals against foreign players. Even if they played a great tournament against foreign opponents, they would usually lose against one of the CNT Top 4 at some point :(

And this is not an easy problem to fix, because the World Tour events are getting stronger due the new World Ranking system:
1) CNT now have to send their top players to more events. They might not care much about the World Ranking in general, but I'm sure that they care a lot about the seedings of their top players for the individual World Championships (so that they don't risk playing each other early in the draw).
2) most CNT players have not played many events over the last few years, so they always start at the qualification stage - often as the #2 or #3 seed in the group. At the Platinum events with many strong players and only 16 players directly qualified for the main draw, this means that the road to a semi-final or final is VERY long and hard.

One solution could be to send out the CNT B-team players to more Challenger events in Europe like the Polish and Spanish Open. But this has not been the case so far, I think :confused:
 
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Yep, congratulations! Jang Woojin played incredibly. I haven't seen for a long time somebody who could turn around to the fh being deep on the bh side so quickly, plus chasing that ball far from bh to far on the fh ... High atleticism and mastery. Rhyu Seun-min must have been proud.

Wysłane z mojego HTC U Play przy użyciu Tapatalka
 
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@JesperStef
I do not agree with you in some points. Firstly, the same strategy with sending only the 6-7 players did not prevent the big three Ma Long, Zhang Jike and Xu Xin from developing their skills and gaining experience. The difference is that those three players were very successful from the very beginning, while the newer generation of CNT players seems to be less technically superior compared to the players from other countries.

I think there are various factors:
- as the big three were more dominant than any other Chinese players before, the CNT maybe focused too much on these players instead of improving the B players. I agree with your argument 2) that all these younger players lack experience of winning and mental stability. But I think it is not due to a limited possibility to play (Ma Long, Zhang Jike, etc. did not play more in their early years and also had to play qualifications) but because the CNT top players were abnormally strong
- I even read the contrary somewhere: the CNT players are used to practice a lot and prepare very carefully for each tournament, whereas Japanese players participated a lot in tournaments. By the new world ranking system, the Chinese players are forced to compete a lot more, even if they are out of form, injured, or anything. Also, as you stated almost all of them have to start in the qualifications.
- rumours in the CNT because of restructuring. Some days ago I read that the chief analyst of the team quitted. I cannot verify that but it is for sure that there is still a change going on in the CNT
- change of the ball to ABS: according to Ovtcharov and Boll the material advantage of the CNT players vanished
- I do not think that except for the material the new balls weaken the Chinese players in particular, however, I think that they decreased the gap between all players. With the new balls, it is much harder to win every single match. Currently, there is a large variety of players (Boll, Ovtcharov, Harimoto, Mizutani, some Korean and Chinese players, Calderano, Pitchford) that are all dangerous for each other. No one of them is convincing in each tournament. Sometimes winners or runner-ups directly fail in the first round of the next tournament. I do not know the exact reason, but that is my observation. What I see is that the new ball requires more athleticism and fast reactions, while touch and spin become less important. Of course, that was also true for the first generation of plastic balls, but not to such a large extent. Logically, this change favors young players that are physically strong and fast in reactions. The Chinese players were mainly ahead in (a) service-receive and (b) long rallies due to their power and athleticism. (a) Service became less dangerous with the new balls and in terms of (b) athleticism, the foreign countries became better.
- Actually, the second row of the CNT (Fang Bo, Yan An, and so on) has been inconsistent for some years. The difference is that Ma Long, Fan Zhendong, Zhang Jike and Xu Xin are getting trouble as well now. For Zhang Jike it is because of injuries, Xu Xin is probably the players suffering most from the new balls and the closer-to-the-table style of playing, Ma Long is getting older. I think all that is not coming from nowhere. It is an development that has foreshadowed during the last years.
- Honestly, I do not think that we see a revolution of younger players. It is more like a delayed transition as young players struggled for almost a decade to overcome the older players. As a reaction, some countries intensified their training a lot, e.g. Japan with respect to Tokyo 2020, Korea, France, ...
- The CNT players that are about 15 to 20 years old now, started to practice in a time when the Chinese dominance was overwhelming and a lot of Chinese people lost interest in the sport. It might be that some of the most talented sportsmen did not start to play table tennis as before but joined basketball, badminton or soccer clubs. Therefore, there is like a quality gap in the youngest generations of Chinese players. But that's speculation.
- while CNT top players seemed to be invulnerable for some years and opponents lost confidence, they faced some challenge since WTTC 2017. It was to be expected that one or two losses of the best Chinese players would trigger an avalanche. The foreign players feel much more confident now, whereas the Chinese players feel much more vulnerable.

Probably, there are a lot more reasons that also contribute. It is a fact that the sport is changing and that the pure dominance of the China began to totter. That is very exciting and I am very curious how the CNT will react on that.
 
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Some folks predicted there would be more CNT players in the Top 10, but I thought otherwise the day the reform took effect.

Half a year later, here is the breakdown of the World Ranking for the CNT in the Top 10, 20, and 100:

Men's
Dec, 2017 5/10, 8/20, 13/100
Jan, 2018 4/10, 4/20, 8/100
Jul, 2018 4/10, 4/20, 9/100

Women's
Dec, 2017 7/10, 9/20, 25/100
Jan, 2018 4/10, 5/20, 9/100
July, 2018 5/10, 7/20, 13/100

While the Men's took less of a hit than the Women's, the number doesn't show much if any recovery. Even though the ITTF have loosened up on the number of entry for each association, the "no separation of association" rule and separate ranking list for U15, U18, U21 and senior players are really working against them here.

And many folks probably missed this since it got buried rather quickly.

One reason CNT players are having trouble in the World Tour is that they're not used to the idea of competing abroad so often. They prefer to spend more time on training and use the World Tour to tune up before the majors.

With the World Ranking reform, they're now forced to use competition for training instead, a model that fits perfectly well with the ideal of the JNT. Ito, for instance, has said she likes playing matches MUCH more than working on the basics.

OTOH, this competition-oriented approach doesn't sit well with the CNT. They have to field their B team players to the World Tour WAY more than before, many of which are supposed to play the role of copy players, serving the few cream-of-the-crop players. The "no separation of association" is completely at odds with their central idea of working as a team. Now you have these copy players thinking "perhaps I have a chance to make it big, too." You could sense the team spirit is not as solid anymore.

Another factor is that there has been a restructuring of the analytics team. Recent rumor has it the team has been dissolved. Li Xiaodong used to lead the team but he retired some time after Rio Olympics. Liu Heng is supposed to be the team leader now, and he once wrote on his Weibo denouncing the rumor.

However, the CTTA have recently issued a request for tender on a whole range of services in sports and health science for the players. This suggests the team is definitely going through a significant change at the moment.
 
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Great play from Jang, better than anyone else in the tournament except maybe Mizutani (the luck was on his side in that match). Never expected 4-0 in the final. I thought LJK played too passively, too many long pushes and slow loops against a quick opponent. Also had big trouble reading Jang's pendulum serve. Of course the doomsayers are wrong as usual; LJK will be fine and will continue to improve with more international experience.
 
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Great play from Jang, better than anyone else in the tournament except maybe Mizutani (the luck was on his side in that match). Never expected 4-0 in the final. I thought LJK played too passively, too many long pushes and slow loops against a quick opponent. Also had big trouble reading Jang's pendulum serve. Of course the doomsayers are wrong as usual; LJK will be fine and will continue to improve with more international experience.

I thought on more than a few occasions that Jang's serve was blatantly illegal but that it's the kind of illegal that will not get called on you in your home country. How much of a factor that was, who knows, but I don't expect him to get that kind of benefit in foreign countries.
 
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Some folks predicted there would be more CNT players in the Top 10, but I thought otherwise the day the reform took effect.

Half a year later, here is the breakdown of the World Ranking for the CNT in the Top 10, 20, and 100:

Men's
Dec, 2017 5/10, 8/20, 13/100
Jan, 2018 4/10, 4/20, 8/100
Jul, 2018 4/10, 4/20, 9/100

Women's
Dec, 2017 7/10, 9/20, 25/100
Jan, 2018 4/10, 5/20, 9/100
July, 2018 5/10, 7/20, 13/100

While the Men's took less of a hit than the Women's, the number doesn't show much if any recovery. Even though the ITTF have loosened up on the number of entry for each association, the "no separation of association" rule and separate ranking list for U15, U18, U21 and senior players are really working against them here.

And many folks probably missed this since it got buried rather quickly.

People underestimate the degree to which the old system favored stronger players. I do think the current system needs some ranking refinement, but I think the base is sounder. I do think that major tournaments should get a slightly higher bonus, and that there should be a bigger gap from 1st to 2nd to 3-4 to 5-8 etc. and that might help the Chinese a little. But the separation by association should never be resuscitated except maybe in the largest medal tournaments.
 
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JWJ didn’t just beat LJK, he dominated him. In fact, his dominance is not due to LJK’s playing particularly bad but due to his superior playing style - combining aggressive movement around the ball, quick, devastating fh attack of penholders with a strong bh and balanced defense of a shakehand. I do think we just witnessed a playing style that’s going to be adopted by top players in years to come.

Harimoto’ team should carefully watch every second of this game.
 
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I thought on more than a few occasions that Jang's serve was blatantly illegal but that it's the kind of illegal that will not get called on you in your home country. How much of a factor that was, who knows, but I don't expect him to get that kind of benefit in foreign countries.
From the screen's view it might've looked illegal, but maybe from the umpire's point of view it looked legal.
 
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From the screen's view it might've looked illegal, but maybe from the umpire's point of view it looked legal.
He kept moving the hand extremely late. The umpire could have called it if they were so inclined. If you look at Mizutani for example his serve is much cleaner (if he doesn't try to hide the ball with the head).
 
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People underestimate the degree to which the old system favored stronger players. I do think the current system needs some ranking refinement, but I think the base is sounder. I do think that major tournaments should get a slightly higher bonus, and that there should be a bigger gap from 1st to 2nd to 3-4 to 5-8 etc. and that might help the Chinese a little. But the separation by association should never be resuscitated except maybe in the largest medal tournaments.
Sounds fair. Even though China and Japan have every reason to complain, I kinda like how things are at the moment.

According to the EC minutes, associations most affected by this rule have urged the ITTF to reconsider these issues.

20180428_EC_Halmstad_minutes.pdf
9. Any other business
9.1 WR points for Continental Events
Mr. Masahiro Maehara asked the EC to reconsider the WR point allocation for the continental
results given the discrepancy between the level of the continental events. The CEO informed
ITTF Executive Committee meeting minutes 28th of April 2018, Halmstad Page 6
Mr. Maehara that if the continental representatives prefer, an official request from the
Continental bodies should be received, as ATTU and ETTU were asking ITTF to increase the
continental points originally.
With an Official Request, the ITTF will reconsider the point allocation.

9.2 Separation by Associations
Mr. Maehara also asked to reconsider the current rule of no separation per association in
the first round of the World Tour.
The CEO, informed that after receiving various complaints the Competition Department will
be considering this proposal in the future.

201802123_EC_London_minutes.pdf
4. Athlete’s Commission Report
...
4.2 First World Tours of 2018
...
The AC requested the Competition Department to review the rule of no separation per
Association from the group stage or first preliminary round after receiving several
complaints from the affected players and Associations.
 
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@JesperStef
I do not agree with you in some points. Firstly, the same strategy with sending only the 6-7 players did not prevent the big three Ma Long, Zhang Jike and Xu Xin from developing their skills and gaining experience. The difference is that those three players were very successful from the very beginning, while the newer generation of CNT players seems to be less technically superior compared to the players from other countries.

I think there are various factors:
- as the big three were more dominant than any other Chinese players before, the CNT maybe focused too much on these players instead of improving the B players. I agree with your argument 2) that all these younger players lack experience of winning and mental stability. But I think it is not due to a limited possibility to play (Ma Long, Zhang Jike, etc. did not play more in their early years and also had to play qualifications) but because the CNT top players were abnormally strong
- I even read the contrary somewhere: the CNT players are used to practice a lot and prepare very carefully for each tournament, whereas Japanese players participated a lot in tournaments. By the new world ranking system, the Chinese players are forced to compete a lot more, even if they are out of form, injured, or anything. Also, as you stated almost all of them have to start in the qualifications.
- rumours in the CNT because of restructuring. Some days ago I read that the chief analyst of the team quitted. I cannot verify that but it is for sure that there is still a change going on in the CNT
- change of the ball to ABS: according to Ovtcharov and Boll the material advantage of the CNT players vanished
- I do not think that except for the material the new balls weaken the Chinese players in particular, however, I think that they decreased the gap between all players. With the new balls, it is much harder to win every single match. Currently, there is a large variety of players (Boll, Ovtcharov, Harimoto, Mizutani, some Korean and Chinese players, Calderano, Pitchford) that are all dangerous for each other. No one of them is convincing in each tournament. Sometimes winners or runner-ups directly fail in the first round of the next tournament. I do not know the exact reason, but that is my observation. What I see is that the new ball requires more athleticism and fast reactions, while touch and spin become less important. Of course, that was also true for the first generation of plastic balls, but not to such a large extent. Logically, this change favors young players that are physically strong and fast in reactions. The Chinese players were mainly ahead in (a) service-receive and (b) long rallies due to their power and athleticism. (a) Service became less dangerous with the new balls and in terms of (b) athleticism, the foreign countries became better.
- Actually, the second row of the CNT (Fang Bo, Yan An, and so on) has been inconsistent for some years. The difference is that Ma Long, Fan Zhendong, Zhang Jike and Xu Xin are getting trouble as well now. For Zhang Jike it is because of injuries, Xu Xin is probably the players suffering most from the new balls and the closer-to-the-table style of playing, Ma Long is getting older. I think all that is not coming from nowhere. It is an development that has foreshadowed during the last years.
- Honestly, I do not think that we see a revolution of younger players. It is more like a delayed transition as young players struggled for almost a decade to overcome the older players. As a reaction, some countries intensified their training a lot, e.g. Japan with respect to Tokyo 2020, Korea, France, ...
- The CNT players that are about 15 to 20 years old now, started to practice in a time when the Chinese dominance was overwhelming and a lot of Chinese people lost interest in the sport. It might be that some of the most talented sportsmen did not start to play table tennis as before but joined basketball, badminton or soccer clubs. Therefore, there is like a quality gap in the youngest generations of Chinese players. But that's speculation.
- while CNT top players seemed to be invulnerable for some years and opponents lost confidence, they faced some challenge since WTTC 2017. It was to be expected that one or two losses of the best Chinese players would trigger an avalanche. The foreign players feel much more confident now, whereas the Chinese players feel much more vulnerable.

Probably, there are a lot more reasons that also contribute. It is a fact that the sport is changing and that the pure dominance of the China began to totter. That is very exciting and I am very curious how the CNT will react on that.

Thank you very much for your insightful reply.

I agree with most of it, especially your observations of the present state of TT.

I do have a few comments though:

You're right that the current top 3 (or 4 including Zhang Jike) CNT players were much succesful when they started to play internationally, which might have meant that they gained more chances to do just that. In fact the CNT has been exceptionally great at this since 1995: replacing their top players with even better younger players.

However, I'm pretty sure that the younger CNT players used to play more tournaments in the previous generations - possibly because the top players at that time didn't play as many tournaments as they have done in recent years.

Unfortunately I can't back this up with facts, because the ITTF statistics are absolutely horrible :-(. But I can say that in 2009 the CNT visited the Danish Open with Ma Long, Zhang Jike (first international senior tournament, I think?), Xu Xin, Hao Shuai and Zhang Chao. Of these players only Ma Long was on the 2008 WTTTC team (and only as the number 5 player).

Also, just because this policy has worked with the former generations of players, it clearly hasn't worked as well bringing up the recent "next generation" of CNT top players. Clearly the factors that you mention - as most likely many many others - are a part of the equation as well. But that doesn't stop me from wondering whether the CNT has mishandled the upcoming generational change poorly - for whatever reason.
 
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