How does future chinese players will overcome the plastic ball lack of rotation?

I also don't think that it is all about the ball... there are a lot of factors and one is talent for sure.

But refering to the ball topic: a lot of people here argue that Harimoto adapted much better to the ABS ball or developed a new table tennis style together with his coaches with respect to the ball. But maybe it was simply that the style he was playing from the very beginning (close to the table, focussed on backhand, taking the ball early) works nicely with the new ball, while others do not. I doubt that Harimoto would play a completely different style with celluloid balls or the early generation of plastic.

This is a very interesting discussion, and one that I think doesn't have a straight forward answer.

Harimoto's playstyle is certainly unique and suits the Plastic Ball perfectly, this is difficult to deny. Whether this was something he adapted because of the plastic ball, or whether he always played the same style, it would be difficult to find out. Although I do believe there would have been some adjustments made, as his coach (Dad) is clearly a very knowledgable man when it comes to tactics and how to get the best out of a player. I don't necesserily think it is that important whether he adjusted his style or not, ultimately this is a style that has been proven to work and is the style he plays now, so lets focus on that.

The thing is, the Chinese have always found ways around any potential threats to their dominance. Right now, Harimoto is the only real threat that they face on a consistent basis. Sure, other Chinese players have had the odd loss to foreign players, but only Harimoto has had the consistency vs the Chinese (beating ZY, ML, ZJK in one tournament!). The Chinese have always had the ability to overcome threats, such as Harimoto, and they'll figure out what needs to be done quite quickly. Like they have done with Timo, they will watch videos of Harimoto and study in great depth what he is doing, in an attempt to find his true weaknesses. My honest opinion is that if Harimoto plays ML, ZJK, LJK, LGY in a months time, he will struggle big time. These players will be putting in significant hours to figure out exactly what needs to be done to beat Harimoto.

In the long run, players will start to stay up to the table more, and Harimoto's style will become more popular. However, there will always be different playstyles that are effective against eachother and so there is no reason to believe that there isn't a solution already out there. I mean, look at Pitchford and how easily he dismantles Harimoto. Perhaps the Chinese will study these matches and learn from it.

To add to my post, in ZJK's "press conference" after his loss to TH, he was asked what he was going to do next time to beat TH. He replied something along the lines of "It is too early to say, I have not yet watched the video however I will study the video to find out. Every player has specific weaknesses".

It is imporant not to forget that Harimoto will also be studying the Chinese, especially the likes of LGY who he lost to last time.

So it'll be a case of who does their homework the best! Or who figures out a new innovative playstyle first!

Yecats Encerwal said:

The thing is, the Chinese have always found ways around any potential threats to their dominance. Right now, Harimoto is the only real threat that they face on a consistent basis. Sure, other Chinese players have had the odd loss to foreign players, but only Harimoto has had the consistency vs the Chinese (beating ZY, ML, ZJK in one tournament!). The Chinese have always had the ability to overcome threats, such as Harimoto, and they'll figure out what needs to be done quite quickly. Like they have done with Timo, they will watch videos of Harimoto and study in great depth what he is doing, in an attempt to find his true weaknesses. My honest opinion is that if Harimoto plays ML, ZJK, LJK, LGY in a months time, he will struggle big time. These players will be putting in significant hours to figure out exactly what needs to be done to beat Harimoto.

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There is no guarantee for the "have always found ways" success. The thing is Harimoto and his coaches will study his weaknesses as well and will try to improve, I'm sure he will because of his age. Boll was a threat when he was 20 years old, a player like Harimoto didn't exist before. As for Ma Long, if he can deal with Harimotos serve better next time he should win if they have to play this year again. But later on this might not help either with a stronger Harimoto when he gets older.

mrk said:

There is no guarantee for the "have always found ways" success. The thing is Harimoto and his coaches will study his weaknesses as well and will try to improve, I'm sure he will because of his age. Boll was a threat when he was 20 years old, a player like Harimoto didn't exist before. As for Ma Long, if he can deal with Harimotos serve better next time he should win if they have to play this year again. But later on this might not help either with a stronger Harimoto when he gets older.

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You are right. There is no guarantee that CNT will find a way to beat Harimoto, (and I hate to say this) but they probably will. If I have to bet on any coaches to find a way to defeat Harimoto, I would bet on the CNT coaches. They have proven time and again how good they are at the tactics behind table tennis. That's why China can dominate the sport for so long.

The entire thread uses facts not in evidence

Here is a longer explanation of my last post. I don't personally buy into the idea that ABS balls spin less than other 40+ balls. I think it is quite likely that they spin less than 40 mm celluloid balls, but Ma Long and other CNT players won a lot of championships since 2014.

Compared to cellulose acetate 40+ balls, the newer ABS balls bounce higher -- actually the same height as celluloid, whereas CA balls bounced lower and inconsistently. I personally think more than anything that is the difference and everything else pales in comparison.

Regarding spin, none of us really know what is going on and it is extraordinarily complex. Here are some possible things that could be going on:

1. ABS balls actually do spin less than CA (in addition to bouncing higher).
2. The spin is the same but they interact differently with the air, causing a different arc and altering the timing.
3. Or the spin is the same and they interact differently with the table.
4. The spin is the same and they interact differently with the opponents blade.
5. The spin is the same but the higher bounce makes it easier for the opponent to deal with.
6. A combination of different aspects of the above.
7. Or people who think that ABS balls are bad for "spin based game) are simply wrong and if you did something quantitative you would find that heavy topspin shots are just as effective, but maybe they are producing a somewhat different kind of error in the opponent that is less impressive.

All of the 40+ balls are heavier than they were with celluloid. So one expects that it is harder to get the same revs/sec, and the ball would be slower in the air, with a different trajectory, etc. etc.

It is so complicated of a situation that I don't really think anyone knows what is going on, not even LGL (recall that at a point he was using ABS balls as an excuse for CNT players losing at some point awhile back, but bear in mind he had a vested interest in finding an excuse, and so those comments need to be taken with a huge ton of salt). The only thing that would convince me is some ultra-high speed video where it was possible to analyze trajectory and actual spin on the ball! And as far as I know, this is not something any of us have access to. And the analyses of the data that would be required are really complex.

Also, I should add that CNT players are not all the same! I don't agree that their games are more "spin based" than other players or that you can generalize. ZJK, Ma Long, and FZD (not to mention Xu Xin and others) all have different aspects in the way they play. Timo Boll and Dima Ovtcharov are very markedly different in a lot of ways. There is no way I will believe that ABS balls will uniquely affect CNT players collectively more than Japanese or German players.

Why is Harimoto so good right now (the thing that is driving this discussion)? Because speed always kills. Taking the ball early is a really good way to play if you can actually manage to do it.

Takkyu_wa_inochi said:

WTF we've been playing with plastic balls for many years now... i can't remember the last time i played with celluloid.
Probably I would miss all my touch shots if i played with a celluloid ball.

Pros have had more than enough time to adapt. If they cannot adapt after all those years, they are not pros

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Yeah I'm going to call BS on this. Pros reach the levels through constant, reinforced training and development, not solely on their propensity to excell. You may as well ask the likes of Kobe Bryant to switch from guard to center and excel at it because you know... he wouldn't be a pro otherwise!

TheKevinFang said:

Young players have the propensity to learn/adapt quicker due to the comparatively lower muscle memory + some biological reasoning. Don't jump to conclusions so quickly as correlation doesn't always equal causation!

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Correlation never equals causation! If you have a correlation and believe there is a causation behind it, then just reinforcing the correlation does not prove it. Also trying to push the burden of proof off on the other side does not prove it.

The only thing that proves causation is locating the cause and ruling out all other possible explanations - and that is your job not the other sides.

I am not saying you are wrong in your identification of an interesting correlation. I am not saying there is no causation behind that correlation. I am saying you cannot imply that correlation is ever equal to causation.

Put more simply I am just saying you cannot stop at correlations and be satisfied or draw conclusions from it.

sderyke2002 said:

Correlation never equals causation! If you have a correlation and believe there is a causation behind it, then just reinforcing the correlation does not prove it. Also trying to push the burden of proof off on the other side does not prove it.

The only thing that proves causation is locating the cause and ruling out all other possible explanations - and that is your job not the other sides.

I am not saying you are wrong in your identification of an interesting correlation. I am not saying there is no causation behind that correlation. I am saying you cannot imply that correlation is ever equal to causation.

Put more simply I am just saying you cannot stop at correlations and be satisfied or draw conclusions from it.

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I'm not concluding it's just a strong observation that is a known phenomena

One possible adaptation to a ball that's harder to spin is simply to swing harder. Bigger, more powerful athletes might be the future. Something like this happened in tennis beginning around 1980 when larger head composite rackets ended the wooden racket era. It took several generations to see the full effect but now it's rare to find average size or smaller players at the top of the game. I wonder if CNT scouts are out there now looking to grab bigger 6 year olds before the basketball coach gets to them.

Andy44 said:

One possible adaptation to a ball that's harder to spin is simply to swing harder. Bigger, more powerful athletes might be the future.

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Yes, swing harder is the thing I agree. I've mentioned it a lot.
But I don't think that "bigger, more powerfull athlets" is the only key.
Swing is not a punch. Swing starts with the the nails of the feet fingers, goes all through the skin /and blah-blah-blah/, and ends with the cast of a quiff. The SWING is a FEEl, not strength. It envolves a lot of different motionts all through the stages of a hit, etc., etc.

langel said:

Yes, swing harder is the thing I agree. I've mentioned it a lot.
But I don't think that "bigger, more powerfull athlets" is the only key.
Swing is not a punch. Swing starts with the the nails of the feet fingers, goes all through the skin /and blah-blah-blah/, and ends with the cast of a quiff. The SWING is a FEEl, not strength. It envolves a lot of different motionts all through the stages of a hit, etc., etc.

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Momentum is momentum. Doesn't matter if it's a punch or a swing, nor whether you're generating translational (speed) or rotational (spin) momentum. More power is more power. If you use it to generate spin, then you get more spin.

Yes, you are right, momentum is momentum.
But (delta)t is a factor too. /more precisely it works at a factor2/.

Next time when ML beats HT and people will come up with another theory.

TheKevinFang said:

I'm not concluding it's just a strong observation that is a known phenomena

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As long as you know that observation is not the end of the logical process. True science requires a mechanism to explain the correlation before it accepts an observed event or process as being confirmed to the point of being useful in predicting consequences in a reproducible manner. You want to jump right from a known phenomena to a consequence of that phenomena without knowing the underlying mechanism - which makes no sense. After all it is the mechanism behind a phenomena and not the phenomena itself which causes the consequences.

mrk said:

There is no guarantee for the "have always found ways" success. The thing is Harimoto and his coaches will study his weaknesses as well and will try to improve, I'm sure he will because of his age. Boll was a threat when he was 20 years old, a player like Harimoto didn't exist before. As for Ma Long, if he can deal with Harimotos serve better next time he should win if they have to play this year again. But later on this might not help either with a stronger Harimoto when he gets older.

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Absolutely there is no guarantee, and it would be wrong to say there was. However, it cannot be denied that the Chinese Team are great at overcoming threats to their dominance, and their work ethic and persistance to be the best has been almost un-parralleled in modern history.

What I will say though is that it won't be too easy for them, as Harimoto is showing speed, passion and pure potential at an age that simply hasn't been seen before. It means that in 2024 - two Olympics from now - he will be just 20 years old, will already have the experience of: an Olympic games, 4 Individual and 4 team WTTC's, countless world cups and pro-tours, Asian Championships etc. Also, he will still be considered to be at least half a decade prior to his "prime". Let's just hope he doesn't burn out!!

One thing is for sure, and this was mentioned by ZJK in his press conference - It certainly makes table tennis more interesting. ZJK actually said it is nice for the Chinese to have such a strong rival.

I would just be keen to question anyone who doubts the Chinese National Teams ability to rise up to a challenge!

When Waldner was 16 he reached the finals of the ETTC and lost to Appelgren. He looked younger than 16 at that time, he was really skinny. He also was not anywhere near as good as he got later. We all know how his career progressed after that.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IjoYdz3T4sk

It is possible that Harimoto is another one of these once-in-an-era players. I for one think it is quite likely.

And if I am right, the CNT will never be able to fully deal with him, just like they struggled with Waldner. (A CNT coach once said that he was the only European player they couldn't prepare for because if one thing he was doing didn't work owing to some plan they had devised he would just do something else and blow their plan out of the water). I think Harimoto will have that kind of versatility once he gets older (he shows some signs of it already). Another thing that is Waldner-like is that this kid has awesome serves -- at 14!!! Most people take longer to get that sneaky.

But that doesn't mean they won't dominate everyone else.

In other words, in the case of CNT vs. Harimoto, I don't think it is the balls.

Yecats Encerwal said:

Absolutely there is no guarantee, and it would be wrong to say there was. However, it cannot be denied that the Chinese Team are great at overcoming threats to their dominance, and their work ethic and persistance to be the best has been almost un-parralleled in modern history.

What I will say though is that it won't be too easy for them, as Harimoto is showing speed, passion and pure potential at an age that simply hasn't been seen before. It means that in 2024 - two Olympics from now - he will be just 20 years old, will already have the experience of: an Olympic games, 4 Individual and 4 team WTTC's, countless world cups and pro-tours, Asian Championships etc. Also, he will still be considered to be at least half a decade prior to his "prime". Let's just hope he doesn't burn out!!

One thing is for sure, and this was mentioned by ZJK in his press conference - It certainly makes table tennis more interesting. ZJK actually said it is nice for the Chinese to have such a strong rival.

I would just be keen to question anyone who doubts the Chinese National Teams ability to rise up to a challenge!

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CNT has no match for Harimoto in that age group. Wang Chuqin (18yo) is probably the youngest CNT with winning potential. But he's not as fast as Hari. He doesn't have deceptive serves.

FZD can only last for another 3-5yrs until being too old to beat Hari.

This is probably the time when China fails a succession plan when there's no younger players to take the place of the current champions.

After all, we might see a Japan domination in TT where Japan will get all gold in Olympic. It could be a nice change of domination.

But I rather see more "Harimoto" rising up in other countries to make TT more dynamic. Seeing "Japan takes all gold" is just as boring as "China taking all gold".

Just my 2c.

Passionate about TT