SARS-CoVID-2/ CoVID-19/ CoronaVirus: Information Only from Well Informed Members

says ok, I will go back and make sure you have access. Be...
says ok, I will go back and make sure you have access. Be...
Well-Known Member
Nov 2010
3,568
5,934
10,356
Read 8 reviews
Not yet published but the results of a new randomized placebo controlled trial at Oxford University showed that 2,000 hospital patients on ventilators given the glucocorticoid dexamethasone had death rates of 28% compared to the 40% death rates of people receiving standard of care. This is the first drug shown to reduce mortality in a proper prospective clinical trial and it is a quite significant effect.

It is cheap, available everywhere, and it works through well known anti-inflammatory effects to reduce cytokine release in the most severely ill people. It had no obvious beneficial effect at earlier stages (see further below).

What could be confusing to some people is that there had been publicized warnings that people who were taking this class of drugs (glucocorticoids) on a more chronic basis (e.g. for asthma, COPD, rheumatoid arthritis, inflammatory bowel disease, Cushing's disease, some kidney diseases, etc. etc.) might be at higher risk because these drugs are immunosuppresive. At the time those warnings were NOT accompanied by any actual data and it could be hard to tease out the effect of the drug from the co-morbidities that are the reason people are taking the drug. In fact, one systematic review that has looked at this fairly closely in patients with respiratory diseases found that in terms of the Coivd-19 pandemic "there is no evidence to support the withdrawal of inhaled corticosteroids in patients [with asthma or COPD] , and to do so is likely to be harmful. Patients with asthma and COPD who are stable while using ICS should continue on their treatment". In other words, there are lots of things that in theory seem like they ought to be true (the idea that chloroquine should be useful in Covid-19 was an example, warnings about corticosteroids and ACE inhibitors were another); but at the end of the day you actually have to do carefully controlled clinical trials, or at the very least have some data from experiments in animals to go on.

In any case the situation in later stages of Covid-19 is quite different than at the beginning because what kills a lot of people is the overwhelming excessive response to the infection (which leads to multi-organ failure) and not the direct effect of the virus per se. It is widely believed that this disease passes through about three different stages (although people with mild disease really only go through the first).

There were earlier hints at this result in the literature, including a systematic review from Spain that concluded that methylprednisolone (another drug in the same class) could lower mortality rate in more severe forms of the condition.

For people with more technical backgrounds or any physicians here, here is an earlier discussion of the complexities involved (before this controlled trial). It argues that what you should do for these patients depends on the stage of the disease, defines the three stages, and pretty much predicts the results reported by the Oxford trial.

https://emcrit.org/pulmcrit/steroid-covid/
 
Last edited:
says Aging is a killer
Dexamethasone proves first life-saving drug

Not yet published but the results of a new randomized placebo controlled trial at Oxford University showed that 2,000 hospital patients on ventilators given the glucocorticoid dexamethasone had death rates of 28% compared to the 40% death rates of people receiving standard of care. This is the first drug shown to reduce mortality in a proper prospective clinical trial and it is a quite significant effect.

It is cheap, available everywhere, and it works through well known anti-inflammatory effects to reduce cytokine release in the most severely ill people. It had no obvious beneficial effect at earlier stages (see further below).

What could be confusing to some people is that there had been publicized warnings that people who were taking this class of drugs (glucocorticoids) on a more chronic basis (e.g. for asthma, COPD, rheumatoid arthritis, inflammatory bowel disease, Cushing's disease, some kidney diseases, etc. etc.) might be at higher risk because these drugs are immunosuppresive. At the time those warnings were NOT accompanied by any actual data and it could be hard to tease out the effect of the drug from the co-morbidities that are the reason people are taking the drug. In fact, one systematic review that has looked at this fairly closely in patients with respiratory diseases found that in terms of the Coivd-19 pandemic "there is no evidence to support the withdrawal of inhaled corticosteroids in patients [with asthma or COPD] , and to do so is likely to be harmful. Patients with asthma and COPD who are stable while using ICS should continue on their treatment". In other words, there are lots of things that in theory seem like they ought to be true (the idea that chloroquine should be useful in Covid-19 was an example, warnings about corticosteroids and ACE inhibitors were another); but at the end of the day you actually have to do carefully controlled clinical trials, or at the very least have some data from experiments in animals to go on.

In any case the situation in later stages of Covid-19 is quite different than at the beginning because what kills a lot of people is the overwhelming excessive response to the infection (which leads to multi-organ failure) and not the direct effect of the virus per se. It is widely believed that this disease passes through about three different stages (although people with mild disease really only go through the first).

There were earlier hints at this result in the literature, including a systematic review from Spain that concluded that methylprednisolone (another drug in the same class) could lower mortality rate in more severe forms of the condition.

For people with more technical backgrounds or any physicians here, here is an earlier discussion of the complexities involved (before this controlled trial). It argues that what you should do for these patients depends on the stage of the disease, defines the three stages, and pretty much predicts the results reported by the Oxford trial.

https://emcrit.org/pulmcrit/steroid-covid/

Here's the BBC report:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53061281
 
says ok, I will go back and make sure you have access. Be...
says ok, I will go back and make sure you have access. Be...
Well-Known Member
Nov 2010
3,568
5,934
10,356
Read 8 reviews
To give an idea of what is happening right now in some parts of the US, a week ago there were 2,100 people in Texas hospitalized for Covid-19. Today it is just over 4,000. At this rate things could get ugly really fast. There are few if any places in the world that have a medical infrastructure as large as Houston, but even here you could easily see a replay of NYC and Italy, where people are literally dying of this in ERs. Today adult patients were being transferred to ICUs at Texas Children's Hospital here and ICUs here are now at 90% of capacity..
 
Last edited:
says ok, I will go back and make sure you have access. Be...
says ok, I will go back and make sure you have access. Be...
Well-Known Member
Nov 2010
3,568
5,934
10,356
Read 8 reviews
Thanks Yoass,
I'm doing well personally, even got good news on a recent NIH grant application. There didn't seem to be a lot of particularly interesting things to report about Covid-19 science.

It is true, Houston is a $hi$torm of Covid-19, and we may see a repeat of New York and Italy at their worst. It was totally predictable. Already doctors are having to make horrific choices about who to treat with, say, ECMO because demand exceeds available machines. You can convert regular rooms into ICU rooms but you can't create pulmonologists and critical care doctors and other kinds of specialized health workers and machines out of thin air and there will be excess mortality as a result.

The governor finally faced some realities he ignored for weeks and ordered face mask use in public but there will be carnage before things get better. The next two weeks will be brutal.

I wish I could ride this out somewhere else. Like Provence. Or Japan.

The good news is lots of vaccines are moving forward. No new clinical trial results of note.
 
says ok, I will go back and make sure you have access. Be...
says ok, I will go back and make sure you have access. Be...
Well-Known Member
Nov 2010
3,568
5,934
10,356
Read 8 reviews
Interesting new drug has just started a phase 2/3 clinical trial for Covid-19. ABX464 is a small molecule that binds to the cap binding complex (CBC)2, a complex at the 5′-end of pre-mRNA transcripts. This causes a bunch of downstream effects including inhibition of viral replication and anti-inflammatory effects. The drug blocks SARS-COV-2 replication in vitro and also is effective in ulcerative colitis. It should also block virus entry into cells because of reduced expression of dynamin-2 in cells. All in all, an amazing combination of cellular effects. The mechanism underlying all this is very complex and entails increases in certain miRNAs. I've not read enough to entirely get my head around it all, but it is completely novel in the context of Covid-19.

Also, it is orally bioavailable.

Keep an eye on this one.
 
Last edited:
says Spin and more spin.
says Spin and more spin.
Well-Known Member
Super Moderator
Dec 2010
16,167
17,734
54,879
Read 11 reviews
Interesting new drug has just started a phase 2/3 clinical trial for Covid-19. ABX464 is a small molecule that binds to the cap binding complex (CBC)2, a complex at the 5′-end of pre-mRNA transcripts. This causes a bunch of downstream effects including inhibition of viral replication and anti-inflammatory effects. The drug blocks SARS-COV-2 replication in vitro and also is effective in ulcerative colitis. It should also block virus entry into cells because of reduced expression of dynamin-2 in cells. All in all, an amazing combination of cellular effects. The mechanism underlying all this is very complex and entails increases in certain miRNAs. I've not read enough to entirely get my head around it all, but it is completely novel in the context of Covid-19.

Also, it is orally bioavailable.

Keep an eye on this one.

Wow. Thanks for this Baal. Any idea when a treatment like that would be finished with clinical trials and ready for use?
 
  • Like
Reactions: Vlad Celler
says ok, I will go back and make sure you have access. Be...
says ok, I will go back and make sure you have access. Be...
Well-Known Member
Nov 2010
3,568
5,934
10,356
Read 8 reviews
Hard to say. Sometimes it depends on how quickly they can enroll patients. The company is in France.
 
  • Like
Reactions: UpSideDownCarl
says ok, I will go back and make sure you have access. Be...
says ok, I will go back and make sure you have access. Be...
Well-Known Member
Nov 2010
3,568
5,934
10,356
Read 8 reviews
Meanwhile, in the entire southeast Texas area ( which is larger in population than some European countries and about the area of Portugal) the ICU facilities are at ~100% occupancy, and 44% are occupied by Covid-19 patients. Neighboring areas (Austin, San Antonio) are approaching the same predicament so there isn't any place to send the overflow. Meanwhile people caring for these patients are stretched to the breaking point. Intensive care by definition is extremely labor intensive. Tragically, what will happen next is also predictable and grim.

This is what happens when you ignore basic biology (not to mention the experiences of other places).

Will additional measures be ordered? Almost certainly, but when?

By the way, Houston as a whole has more hospital beds per capita than any other US metropolitan area and yet here we are.
 
Last edited:
This user has no status.
This user has no status.
Member
Dec 2019
434
285
1,139
Meanwhile, in the entire southeast Texas area ( which is larger in population than some European countries and about the area of Portugal) the ICU facilities are at ~100% occupancy, and 44% are occupied by Covid-19 patients. Neighboring areas (Austin, San Antonio) are approaching the same predicament so there isn't any place to send the overflow. Meanwhile people caring for these patients are stretched to the breaking point. Intensive care by definition is extremely labor intensive. Tragically, what will happen next is also predictable and grim.

This is what happens when you ignore basic biology (not to mention the experiences of other places).

Will additional measures be ordered? Almost certainly, but when?

By the way, Houston as a whole has more hospital beds per capita than any other US metropolitan area and yet here we are.

Hope yourself, your family and friends are in good health and saying isolated and healthy.

Unrelated topic, what's the word going around on way Trump is handling Texas situation from his end and what's in his control? Terrible seeing news that things getting worse globally.
 
says Spin and more spin.
says Spin and more spin.
Well-Known Member
Super Moderator
Dec 2010
16,167
17,734
54,879
Read 11 reviews
Hope yourself, your family and friends are in good health and saying isolated and healthy.

Unrelated topic, what's the word going around on way Trump is handling Texas situation from his end and what's in his control? Terrible seeing news that things getting worse globally.

I understand that the question about Trump might be well meant. But this thread is not on the subject of politics. And if you are asking about Trumps handling of anything, that is unavoidably political. So....that question is out of bounds on this thread. Questions about medicine, science, sure. But we need to keep this thread as APolitical as possible. I have already closed two threads on this subject because of politics and people behaving badly.
 
says ok, I will go back and make sure you have access. Be...
says ok, I will go back and make sure you have access. Be...
Well-Known Member
Nov 2010
3,568
5,934
10,356
Read 8 reviews
Without being political, I can say that the final decisions in Texas lie with the governor. Cities and counties (mayors and county commissioners) of places with high population densities are begging him to give them the power to basically institute lock-downs, but he has not yet agreed to give them back this power and as yet he has not yet decided to reinstitute a lockdown himself.

The situation here is that due to the governor's most recent order bars are closed, restaurants are open but restricted to 50% capacity. Gyms and sports facilities are open. Gatherings of more than a certain size are not allowed (I'm not sure of the size). Masks are required in public areas indoors and outdoors where people cannot maintain 2 meter distances. Violations of the mask order can in theory result in a $250 fine. Law enforcement officers in some places have said they refuse to enforce it.

We will see over the next couple of weeks if the current restrictions are sufficient but most people who study these things think they are not.

Anyway, that is the situation in what is currently a very hot spot for Covid-19 in the US.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: UpSideDownCarl
This user has no status.
This user has no status.
Member
Dec 2019
434
285
1,139
Without being political, I can say that the final decisions in Texas lie with the governor. Cities and counties (mayors and county commissioners) of places with high population densities are begging him to give them the power to basically institute lock-downs, but he has not yet agreed to give them back this power and as yet he has not yet decided to reinstitute a lockdown himself.

The situation here is that due to the governor's most recent order bars are closed, restaurants are open but restricted to 50% capacity. Gyms and sports facilities are open. Gatherings of more than a certain size are not allowed (I'm not sure of the size). Masks are required in public areas indoors and outdoors where people cannot maintain 2 meter distances. Violations of the mask order can in theory result in a $250 fine. Law enforcement officers in some places have said they refuse to enforce it.

We will see over the next couple of weeks if the current restrictions are sufficient but most people who study these things think they are not.

Anyway, that is the situation in what is currently a very hot spot for Covid-19 in the US.

In Melbourne they are forcing lockdown on some postcodes, numbers increasing which is a concern. The premiers isn't doing a bad job, just the situation which is no good globally.
 
  • Like
Reactions: UpSideDownCarl
says ok, I will go back and make sure you have access. Be...
says ok, I will go back and make sure you have access. Be...
Well-Known Member
Nov 2010
3,568
5,934
10,356
Read 8 reviews
Meanwhile the Regeneron antibody cocktail has started a full scale phase 3 clinical trial. 1. Sick people in hospital, 2. Healthy people exposed but not yet positive. This means they are satisfied about safety and have tested a few people that it seemed to help
 
says Spin and more spin.
says Spin and more spin.
Well-Known Member
Super Moderator
Dec 2010
16,167
17,734
54,879
Read 11 reviews
Meanwhile the Regeneron antibody cocktail has started a full scale phase 3 clinical trial. 1. Sick people in hospital, 2. Healthy people exposed but not yet positive. This means they are satisfied about safety and have tested a few people that it seemed to help

This is really good news. Thanks Baal.
 
says The sticky bit is stuck.
says The sticky bit is stuck.
Well-Known Member
Jan 2017
2,764
2,607
8,135
Read 8 reviews
I've been pointed to “Longitudinal evaluation and decline of antibody responses in SARS-CoV-2 infection”, https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.09.20148429v1.full.pdf, raising concerns about the durability of vaccine protection. If vaccination would only have short-lived positive effects, that would be bad news indeed.

Am I right reading it that way?
 
  • Like
Reactions: UpSideDownCarl
This user has no status.
This user has no status.
Member
Dec 2018
411
441
1,439
Read 1 reviews
I've been pointed to “Longitudinal evaluation and decline of antibody responses in SARS-CoV-2 infection”, https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.09.20148429v1.full.pdf, raising concerns about the durability of vaccine protection. If vaccination would only have short-lived positive effects, that would be bad news indeed.

Am I right reading it that way?
It's a long way from this data set to any conclusions about vaccine durability. Reaction to a vaccine is unlikely to be identical to the reaction to the virus itself, and antibody dynamics only tell a small part of the story. For one thing, T-cell response is essential, and we're just starting to figure out what's going on. Ultimately, the immune system is so complicated that we won't know much about the efficacy and durability of a vaccine until we try it and see.
 
Top