Does Wang Chuqin deserve the No. 1 Spot in the 2024 Year-End Rankings?

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Currently, Wang Chuqin holds the top spot in the ITTF rankings with a considerable lead. However, his lackluster performance recently has sparked debates about whether he truly deserves it.

Wang had a phenomenal start to the year, dominating Fan Zhendong 4-0 to claim the Grand Finals. Following that, victories at both the Singapore and Saudi Smash make him as a seemingly invincible force. Many fans began comparing him to a table tennis machine, and some even hailed him as potentially the greatest of all time.

But he seems broken all together with his paddle at the Olympics.

1000007386.png


In contrast, Fan Zhendong struggled at the start of the year. He faced multiple defeats, not only twice to Wang but also to players like Hugo Calderano, Lin Gaoyuan, and, notably, Patrick Franziska at the Saudi Smash. However, Fan rebounded on an undefeated streak that included a victory over Wang in Chongqing and ended up with the long-waited Olympics' gold medal.

1000007388.png

Lin Shidong, often viewed as a youngster with immense potential but not the world best yet. Although he defeated Fan at the Singapore Smash, he subsequently lost to him twice. Lin’s recent rise in the rankings is largely attributed to recent titles, including a standout performance at the China Smash.

While the ITTF ranking system has its merits, many criticize its methodology, and I won’t rehash those issues here. Instead, let’s consider an alternative perspective from this website, using the Elo ranking system, which is more accurate in reflecting a player’s true form:


At Laddera, Lin currently occupies the No. 1 spot, followed by Fan. In my opinion, the primary reason Lin is at the top spot is Fan’s absence from competition since the Olympics. And if the two were to face off today, my money would still be on Fan even though the Laddera site gives Fan only 43% chance of winning vs Lin's 57% in a H2H.

1000007389.png


Wang ranks fourth, even trailing Felix Lebrun, but this will probably change after Fukuoka.

So, what do you think? Who truly deserves to end 2024 as the world's No. 1? If not Wang, does he deserve it if he wins the Finals this weekend? Which ranking systems do you prefer?
 
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That’s how it is. Points expire after a year. If his performance keeps dropping he’ll simply not be able to retain his ranking.

To answer your question, since the Olympics was this year I believe it’s fair to declare Fan Zhendong as the true no 1 for 2024, tho there were only limited players (2 from each country at most) and he did not compete afterwards. Other than him it’s Lin Shidong but he only started to rise after the Olympics in autumn.
Would Wang Chuqin deserve the No title after winning WTT finals? Perhaps, but with no FZD and Ma Long it wouldn’t mean as much. And I don’t think he’ll win anyway, unless LSD doesn’t make it to the finals. And most importantly he lost the second round of the Olympics (R32).

Overall, WCQ at the start of the year, Lin Shidong at the end (when there was no Fan Zhendong and mostly Ma Long) and Fan in the middle who won the Olympics and then went on a break so I reckon it’s only logical to call the world and freshly made Olympics champion the best player of 2024 or the true no. 1 so to speak.
 
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I feel that on the wtt list the person coming in first at the end of the year deserves it. You need to win to gain points. More impressive so if it’s Wang since he got almost no points from the olympics or the Asian championships.

Best player of the year for me is Fan no doubt.

Lin will have to win big titles to get to there
 
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Currently, Wang Chuqin holds the top spot in the ITTF rankings with a considerable lead. However, his lackluster performance recently has sparked debates about whether he truly deserves it.

Wang had a phenomenal start to the year, dominating Fan Zhendong 4-0 to claim the Grand Finals. Following that, victories at both the Singapore and Saudi Smash make him as a seemingly invincible force. Many fans began comparing him to a table tennis machine, and some even hailed him as potentially the greatest of all time.

But he seems broken all together with his paddle at the Olympics.

View attachment 33305

In contrast, Fan Zhendong struggled at the start of the year. He faced multiple defeats, not only twice to Wang but also to players like Hugo Calderano, Lin Gaoyuan, and, notably, Patrick Franziska at the Saudi Smash. However, Fan rebounded on an undefeated streak that included a victory over Wang in Chongqing and ended up with the long-waited Olympics' gold medal.

View attachment 33306
Lin Shidong, often viewed as a youngster with immense potential but not the world best yet. Although he defeated Fan at the Singapore Smash, he subsequently lost to him twice. Lin’s recent rise in the rankings is largely attributed to recent titles, including a standout performance at the China Smash.

While the ITTF ranking system has its merits, many criticize its methodology, and I won’t rehash those issues here. Instead, let’s consider an alternative perspective from this website, using the Elo ranking system, which is more accurate in reflecting a player’s true form:


At Laddera, Lin currently occupies the No. 1 spot, followed by Fan. In my opinion, the primary reason Lin is at the top spot is Fan’s absence from competition since the Olympics. And if the two were to face off today, my money would still be on Fan even though the Laddera site gives Fan only 43% chance of winning vs Lin's 57% in a H2H.

View attachment 33307

Wang ranks fourth, even trailing Felix Lebrun, but this will probably change after Fukuoka.

So, what do you think? Who truly deserves to end 2024 as the world's No. 1? If not Wang, does he deserve it if he wins the Finals this weekend? Which ranking systems do you prefer?
I think the issue with the rankings is they span too far a time period.
He is the best measured over 12 mths but that might be silly or meaningless cos looking at recent form (last 3,4,6 mths?) it's clear that he has not been the best player in the world for quite a while.
So I'd say, No, he doesn't deserve the no 1 ranking right now but knowing how the rankings work then you have to interpret it to say ok, he's still been the best over the past year.
Whether that means anything or not is another thing but Lind, Moregard, Anton etc might say it doesn't 😉
Let's see what Harimoto and WCQ himself have to say about it tomorrow!! 😁
 
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I think the issue with the rankings is they span too far a time period.
He is the best measured over 12 mths but that might be silly or meaningless cos looking at recent form (last 3,4,6 mths?) it's clear that he has not been the best player in the world for quite a while.
So I'd say, No, he doesn't deserve the no 1 ranking right now but knowing how the rankings work then you have to interpret it to say ok, he's still been the best over the past year.
Whether that means anything or not is another thing but Lind, Moregard, Anton etc might say it doesn't 😉
Let's see what Harimoto and WCQ himself have to say about it tomorrow!! 😁
Considering how much recency bias there is with fans it might not be a bad thing that the rankings hold some longer memory. It doesn't have to lean so heavily into recent form. If it's just some months it pressures players even more to constantly play just to retain their ranking. You also won't have many meaningful events counting in some periods. With a 1 year timeframe it guarantees that the yearly event are part of the rankings at every time.
 
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Considering how much recency bias there is with fans it might not be a bad thing that the rankings hold some longer memory. It doesn't have to lean so heavily into recent form. If it's just some months it pressures players even more to constantly play just to retain their ranking. You also won't have many meaningful events counting in some periods. With a 1 year timeframe it guarantees that the yearly event are part of the rankings at every time.
Yeah that's true, not denying any of that.
But let's say prior to this tournament, someone asks you who you think is the best player in the world right now, would you have said WCQ?
Even though he was world no1 ranked he hasn't played like the No1 for 8-9 mths...?
So the rankings weren't a close reflection of the current status.
It happens in lots of sports, Tennis, Golf etc and I don't really issue with it but it can just mean that quite often the world ranked No1 isn't the actual best player in the world at the moment, which I think is the point of this thread.
I think a 3mth, 6mth and 12mth ranking would be cool so as to see the recent form also.
 
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The current rating algorithm has a large time lag (about a year). To reduce this lag, rating algorithm can adopt moving average which places more weight on the recent events and less in the remote ones. Of course, this new method will favor heavily on LSD who just had a hot run on the last 6 events including many major ones.
 
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Wang just demolished Tomozaku to claim the Finals. Does anyone else feel like their opinion has shifted and that he now deserves the number 1 spot?

In the Elo rankings, he’s risen to number 2, still trailing Lin, but his performance in Fukuoka reminded me of the dominant version of himself we saw at the start of the year.

1000007434.png
 
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Wang just demolished Tomozaku to claim the Finals. Does anyone else feel like their opinion has shifted and that he now deserves the number 1 spot?

In the Elo rankings, he’s risen to number 2, still trailing Lin, but his performance in Fukuoka reminded me of the dominant version of himself we saw at the start of the year.

View attachment 33332
I think he showed that when he is focused and playing to his real ability, he can be #1.

But he hasn't been always consistent.
 
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says wang chuqin?
Tomokazu harimoto is 3rd now, and fan zhendong is dropped to 6 or 8.
that's very inaccurate, considering he hasn't played since Paris. what if he did? he could have won China smash, and maybe even a few others, which would have propelled him to 2nd or even 1st (considering chuqin's slump form and Lin shidong likely losing to him)
 
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Tomokazu harimoto is 3rd now, and fan zhendong is dropped to 6 or 8.
that's very inaccurate, considering he hasn't played since Paris. what if he did? he could have won China smash, and maybe even a few others, which would have propelled him to 2nd or even 1st (considering chuqin's slump form and Lin shidong likely losing to him)
Where did you see that? WTT site didn't update with points from the Finals yet.
 
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lol

FZD has 4 ZPP
WCQ won't be in the top if FZD played those 4 events.

2 of WCQ's big points will also go bye bye in Jan.
since points are for 12 months, what happened in Sep~Oct 2024, will be more obvious in 2025.....
to expect 2023 points expiring next month as a sign is not a true reflection of the future, but is a true reflection of history.
 
says wang chuqin?
lol

FZD has 4 ZPP
WCQ won't be in the top if FZD played those 4 events.

2 of WCQ's big points will also go bye bye in Jan.
since points are for 12 months, what happened in Sep~Oct 2024, will be more obvious in 2025.....
to expect 2023 points expiring next month as a sign is not a true reflection of the future, but is a true reflection of history.
Fzd only has 3 events contributing to his 4400, compared to all those of wang chuqin and Lin shidong. Plus all of WCQ has R32 points which eventually adds up
 
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