No!!! To work this our in detail you need to know how to compute the sum of a converging series. I just gave and example for the first two strokes. Using your example the opponent will miss 20% of his shots so 80% land. Of the 80% that you must return, you fail on 25% so after two balls, the opponent will have lost 20% of the original 100% and you also will have lost 20% of the original 100%. The is a 60% chance the ball is still in play after 2 strokes. If you used the same ratio for another two strokes the chances of your opponent losing the point is 32% and your chances of losing the point is 32% too and there is a 36% chance that the ball is still in play. Get it?
well, I just got mathsplained.
You might not belive it, but I "get it".
The problem is we are not talking about robots, but real human beings...or even players from the video, where average rally was around or even below drive/block exchange, so my model is much closer to reallity than model expecting them to drive/block for eternity.
The 2nd point is that You totally omitted the % for ball being a winner.
And I can assure You that if You make shot that has n/n+1 chance of landing on tabble where n > 5 then You need to be either on a pro level or play against totall amateour to net get finished, by the next 1-2 balls, meaning the next time You want to make same % shot it will be even easier ball for the opponent to finish.
And that is where Your "block them for the win" strategy fails.
Assuming both You and Your opponent are programmed to make same shot with the same placement each time then... I agree with You, but if we take even a bit of real world knowledge You model is not even close to being usefull.
As for the skills of the players in the video... I can see myself having troubles with them when they have great day, but they look more like self-developed players without proper coaching (I also developed pvetty much on my own and recieved proser coaching for only 3-4 months after turning 20). For example they have nice timing, but both lose a lot of power and quality on the ball, by doing "weird" body movements (like arching back away from the ball while making a drive/loop) that probably comes from habit and not sufficient footwork.
Overall Iwouldn't be surprised by any rating between 1500-1800 from what I saw in other yt videos.
I posted my video some time ago on this forum, so You can check it and even try to "rate" me, cause I have no idea what would be my USATT rating (and I will keep the rating I got from Carl as a secret unless Carl wants to share it

).