Japan Women's Race to Tokyo 2020 Singles

[apacible]

Hi guys! As you know, the race to play singles in the Japan Women's Team has already started. Only the two women with the highest WR on January 1, 2020 will make it. Let this thread serve as both an update and discussion of the very tight race. I made a spreadsheet to keep track of the players' ranking points that will count towards their January 2020 WR.

Just a few notes:
1. This table only counts points from 2019 ITTF events and the 2018 WTTC as these will be the only events that will count towards the Jan 2020 Ranking.
2. Only the Top 8 Events of each player will count towards the ranking. They may play more than 8 events but the excess will not count.
3. There will be three (3) T2 Diamond events this year that will count as bonus WR points in addition to the points from the Top 8 events. Qualifying for these 3 events by playing well in the World Tour could make the difference between playing in the Olympics and watching it from the stands.

 

[usualsuspect]

Congrats to team Japan! They got silver in both WD and XD in Budapest, great job!

 

[zeio]

Ishikawa losing to Doo Hoi Kem in the R16(woohoo!) opens up the field. Though she'll get massive points at World Cup this year.
Ito takes a massive hit after this WTTC.
Hirano has gotten so much value out of her win at ATTC 2017. Asian Cup and thus World Cup put her back in the game.
Hayata is already on her way to the Serbia Open, right after this WTTC while her teammates return to Japan.
Sato and Kato can't be ruled out yet, especially the latter. Their performance at the upcoming Hong Kong Open, China Open and Japan Open will have consequences.

 

[apacible]

Ishikawa losing to Doo Hoi Kem in the R16(woohoo!) opens up the field. Though she'll get massive points at World Cup this year.
Ito takes a massive hit after this WTTC.
Hirano has gotten so much value out of her win at ATTC 2017. Asian Cup and thus World Cup put her back in the game.
Hayata is already on her way to the Serbia Open, right after this WTTC while her teammates return to Japan.
Sato and Kato can't be ruled out yet, especially the latter. Their performance at the upcoming Hong Kong Open, China Open and Japan Open will have consequences.

On point analysis, Zeio! Maybe I can expound on it a little.

1. Ishikawa- Her draws in this year's events won't be as favorable as last year since her ranking dropped to 6th. One possible reason for this is that she hasn't been as lucky in her first round draws. Last year, in 10 out of 11 World Tour events, she managed to avoid a Chinese player in the first round. It was only in the Austrian Open, the last world tour event of the year, where she drew He Zhuojia in the R32. (Compare this with Ito who drew a Chinese opponent in the first round 6 out of 11 times in the World Tour last year.) Losing in the first round really hurts a seeded player's ranking points. Still, I believe she is in the most favorable position to make the Olympic Team given that she still has the highest WR among Japanese women (and will likely draw Chinese players only at the QF) and has the World Cup event as a cushion should she not perform too well in the World Tour. However, her WR drop definitely makes it easier for her other Japanese teammates to challenge her spot for the Olympics​

2. Ito- She's at the same footing as Ishikawa and will get just as favorable draws as her since Ito's only ranked one spot below at No. 7. The only difference is that she will not be playing in the World Cup, so she will have to make up ground by performing better in the World Tour​

3. Hirano- Being WR 9 rather than WR 8 makes a huge difference with regard to her draw. Those seeded 9-16 in events will inevitable face one of the Chinese Big 5, or either Ishikawa, Ito or Cheng-I-Ching who are very tough opponents. She needs to step up her game to do better than R16 exits in the rest of the ITTF events this year. Fortunately, she has the opportunity during World Cup to gain big ranking points​

4. Hayata- Her road to finish in the Top 2 in the JNT by January 2020 is the most difficult because of her seeding. Winning challenge events like the Serbia Open will not be enough to get her a singles spot since she'll only get 850 points for each event won, which is around the same amount of points one would get in a World Tour Platinum or World Tour if she loses in the R16. With all the other JNT women seeded in the Top 16, a R16 exit or better is pretty much guaranteed for them. Hayata will simply be matching but not overtaking her teammates by winning challenge events. She will inevitably need a few breakthrough performances in the World Tour to even come close to qualifying for the Olympic singles event and this would entail defeating CNT team members and her higher ranked teammates​

5. Sato/Kato/Shibata- They're all joining challenge events as well, but similar to what I said about Hayata, challenge event wins will not be enough. Doing well in the World Tour and especially in the Platinum events is the key to getting that singles slot. Shibata and Sato are in more favorable positions to do well in the World tour since they are one of the top 16 seeds, but Kato's improvement this year may help offset this.​

Because the race to the Olympic singles event is based on world ranking, it creates a conflict of interest between players. Naturally, you would also want your teammates to succeed and go deep in the tournaments, but that scenario would make it harder for you to overtake their ranking if you've already been knocked out of the same tournament. For example, Ishikawa's WR drop hurts the JNT as a whole, but opens up more opportunities for her other JNT teammates. The WTTC has just ended yet I'm already looking forward to the China, Hong Kong and Japan Opens to see how this all plays out.

 

[Vlad Celler]

Hina Hayata will probably not even be able to enter the Top 16 by the end of this year ...
And not because the level of the game is low ....

In the rating for June she will have a deduction (-1350 , 5/2018)
Even if she wins in Serbia and Slovenia (there is no confirmation yet that she will play in Slovenia) - she will score 850 / Serbia + (850-563 / 8th result = + 287) / Slovenia ...
(-1350+287)=-213...
7818-213=7605
Of course, there is still China Open ...
But Hayata has a low current rating, and you need to play qualifications ....
three games ....
With such a composition of Chinese players, the probability of entering the main grid is close to zero .....
But even if Hayata passes the qualification, she will enter the main draw - she will receive only (675-600 / 8th result) = +75 points .....
To keep the result no lower than 7818, you must at least lose to R-16 ....
This is highly unlikely, unfortunately ....

But that's not all ....
When calculating the rating for July - she has a deduction (-1080/6-2018) ...
And in Hong Kong and Japan it is necessary to play the qualification ......

And there is practically no reserve ...450+450...
Consequently, a loss of approximately (-600) ..... 7200....

 

[pongfugrasshopper]

So is ranking point accumulation the only thing Japan is using to determine the 2 Olympic singles spots? If so, I think that's a very poor decision. The final position at a tournament depends on how lucky or unlucky your draw is. Take for example, Mima ito. She was unlucky and drew Sun Yingsha in R32 whereas Miu Hirano draws Mo Zhang in R32 at the WTTC. No offense to Zhang Mo, but there's a huge difference in playing level between Zhang Mo and Sun Yingsha. The ITTF ranking system is designed first for active participation (which is a good thing and I agree with it in this respect) and playing level as a secondary (thirdly?) consideration. So why base your Olympic singles selection on it when it has very little predictive ability of how well a player will do against foreign competition?

 

[Vlad Celler]

pongfugrasshopper

Agreed...(there was already a mistake - they did not allow Hayata to fully participate in the WTTC)

 

[Takkyu_wa_inochi]

the "best" Hayata can hope is that Ishikawa "retires", finally listening to zeio...

or more realistically just earn that 3rd spot for the team competition...

 

[Vlad Celler]

This is not possible through rating ...... Hina Hayata simply will not have time until January of next year even to enter Top-16 ITTF ....

 

[Sali]

there is something about ranking which truly makes this decision quite stupid. For instance Koki Niwa after quite good WTTC (quaterfinal) lost his place from 8 to 12, while at the same time players who did not score a lot like Pitchford advanced. I understand that the points from last year march world tours lost their points, but Koki did not score anything last year march (qatar open lost in 1 round, german open lost in 2 round).
Of course what all of you wrote having high ranking makes you have lower ranked opponents if you are lucky.

 

[Takkyu_wa_inochi]

pongfugrasshopper

Agreed...(there was already a mistake - they did not allow Hayata to fully participate in the WTTC)

WTF Hayata was the last non-CNT player to beat the World Champion (in style !)... Kato went there , lost to LSW and although she fought and managed to get one game, she was never in a position to win or even to challenge seriously LSW

 

[Vlad Celler]

Fully agree with you ...
Perhaps in the near future she will be the leader of the Japanese women's team .....
I can only wish her happiness and good luck ....

 

[Sali]

WTF Hayata was the last non-CNT player to beat the World Champion (in style !)... Kato went there , lost to LSW and although she fought and managed to get one game, she was never in a position to win or even to challenge seriously LSW

Compare LSW from January and April - completely different Player. She admitted that she worked hard before wttc, Just watch her match from January and wttc. BTW I think it was Hayata who did not advance to Main draw few weeks ago in qatar loosing to not ranked Player, not even from China.

 

[driversbeat]

Agreed. Not to take anything away from Hayata but I think there's something to be said about the 'safety' one feels whe Ito and Ishikawa meet unknown players compared to the others. Stability is a big factor in setting up a showdown with the chinese or going home early.

 

[Vlad Celler]

Hina Hayata will probably not even be able to enter the Top 16 by the end of this year ...
And not because the level of the game is low ....

In the rating for June she will have a deduction (-1350 , 5/2018)
Even if she wins in Serbia and Slovenia (there is no confirmation yet that she will play in Slovenia) - she will score 850 / Serbia + (850-563 / 8th result = + 287) / Slovenia ...
(-1350+287)=-213...
7818-213=7605
Of course, there is still China Open ...
But Hayata has a low current rating, and you need to play qualifications ....
three games ....
With such a composition of Chinese players, the probability of entering the main grid is close to zero .....
But even if Hayata passes the qualification, she will enter the main draw - she will receive only (675-600 / 8th result) = +75 points .....
To keep the result no lower than 7818, you must at least lose to R-16 ....
This is highly unlikely, unfortunately ....

But that's not all ....
When calculating the rating for July - she has a deduction (-1080/6-2018) ...
And in Hong Kong and Japan it is necessary to play the qualification ......

And there is practically no reserve ...450+450...
Consequently, a loss of approximately (-600) ..... 7200....

Hina Hayata withdrew her application for participation in Slovenia ......

 

[usualsuspect]

Hayata has the greatest potential of beating Chinese players, because she uses tacky Chinese rubber on FH.
Chinese players lose to their teammates the most. I think Hayata is on to something. If she copies Chinese play style, she will have a greater chance of beating the Chinese.

 

[Atas Newton]

Not sure if serious or sarcasm, but Ishikawa has a BS H3 on her forehand side. Also plays a very CNT influenced game. Her results, well we all know about her results against CNT. I believe CNT actually performs best against CNT-like opponents. Makes perfect sense, really.

 

[usualsuspect]

Not sure if serious or sarcasm, but Ishikawa has a BS H3 on her forehand side. Also plays a very CNT influenced game. Her results, well we all know about her results against CNT. I believe CNT actually performs best against CNT-like opponents. Makes perfect sense, really.

Sarcasm, it was sarcasm...

 

[Vlad Celler]

Hayata has the greatest potential of beating Chinese players, because she uses tacky Chinese rubber on FH.
Chinese players lose to their teammates the most. I think Hayata is on to something. If she copies Chinese play style, she will have a greater chance of beating the Chinese.

I do not know how correct this information is in the internet - LGL considers Hina Hayata the most promising player in the women's national team of Japan ....

 

[pongfugrasshopper]

Compare LSW from January and April - completely different Player. She admitted that she worked hard before wttc, Just watch her match from January and wttc. BTW I think it was Hayata who did not advance to Main draw few weeks ago in qatar loosing to not ranked Player, not even from China.

To be fair, Hayata had just won the Oman Open with the Finals being on Sun. Mar 24. She then lost to qualifier Yoo Eunchong 3 days later Wed. Mar 27 in a seven game match at the Qatar Open so fatigue could have been a factor. Yoo Eunchong is not a bad player. She also lost in 7 games to Doo Hoi Kem at the WTTC.