JTTA: Selection System to be Revamped for Paris 2024

[pongfugrasshopper]

Oh, please. I complained loud and clear at Singapore Smash 2024. Hirano kept running into Hayata and Ito throughout this Olympic cycle, mostly in R16 (look up the sorry-ass points). Note that Hayata and Ito have never defeated the other two in succession either domestically or internationally, whereas Hirano has defeated both in succession domestically (Zennoh Cup Funabashi 2022 that saved her WS spot) and defeated Hayata twice internationally (almost beat both at Singapore Smash 2024.) Because Hayata and Ito have been ranked so high and close and hence seeded farther away, they never had the chance to meet, other than the time at Singapore Smash 2024, which was "foiled" by Hirano. If Hayata were to play Ito, Ito would have the better odds.

Once again, players can't peak like that continuously for several weeks. SYB is the best example. She has been playing non-stop and her recent results have only gotten worse and worse. So please.

Why are you complaining about Hirano running into Ito and Hayata? I thought both of them should retire according to you.

 

[zeio]

I"ve already acknowledged Mima Ito's rankings decline. But are you seriously comparing Hayata's record to Hirano's/Kihara's for this Paris cycle? You seem blinded to the fact that Hayata won a bronze in singles at World Championships. Or won a silver at the Asian Games last year... the first Japanese to make a final in 29 years. Or won 3 WTT Contenders last year. Or is back to back All Japan Champion. Or dominated the Paris race. Oh I'm sure you're well aware of all this, but you refuse to acknowledge it because that would destroy your laughable position that Hayata should retire. And you say I'm the one living a bubble? Sure... okay.

Please. As Takkyu_wa_inochi noted, "even if they replaced any 2 players with Kihara and Ito Nagasaki, Sato or whoever they'd still get this silver medal." And for WS, Kihara has gotten 2 games off of CM (WS finalist) at WTTC 2023, so her odds are not as poor as you may think.

And on Hayata, here is a recent Tieba thread in which the records of foreign players against the 5 core CNT players were listed. Guess who was at the top, AGAIN? And yes, you're still living in a bubble.

{盘点} 女乒外协赢过 五大主力中其中两位及以上的选手
{Tally} Foreign women who have beaten 2 or more of the 5 main players
https://tieba.baidu.com/p/9049938608

 

[zeio]

Why are you complaining about Hirano running into Ito and Hayata? I thought both of them should retire according to you.

Because Hayata has complained about how Ito is mysteriously strong only when playing her after losing 3-4 at Nojima Cup 2023, where Hirano beat Ito ultimately. Reproducing the entire post below because you folks refuse to admit it and I am forced to rub it in.

https://www.tabletennisdaily.com/fo...-be-revamped-for-paris-2024.24977/post-441901

My bubble includes reality where Hayata proceeds to blow past her competition for the past couple of years in the Paris race based on the rules set by the JTTA. If she isn't deserving of one of the two singles spots, then I don't know who is.

Blow past her competition? Ito is the first one to disagree. Out of all the trials, how many 7 gamers did Hayata accrue? How many times did Ito fall before she could meet Hayata?

Race to Paris H2H
Hayata 1-2 Ito
Hayata 3-1 Hirano
Hirano 3-1 Ito

Reality
Lion Cup 2022
QF Ito 2-4 Nagasaki (Ito to meet Sato in SF, Hayata in F)
QF Ishikawa 3-2 -> 3-4 Hayata
F Nagasaki 3-0 -> 3-4 Hayata

Zennoh Cup Fukuoka 2022
SF Hayata 1-3 -> 3-4 Ito

Zennoh Cup Hiratsuka 2023
R16 Ito 2-4 Nagasaki (Ito to meet Hayata in QF)
R16 Yokoi 2-3 -> 3-4 Hayata

Nojima Cup 2023
QF Hayata 4-1 Yokoi (one could argue Yokoi drained her)
SF Hayata 2-3 -> 3-4 Ito

Zennoh Cup Tokyo 2023
SF Hayata 4-1 Odo
SF Ito 4-3 Hirano (one could also argue Hirano drained Ito)
F Hayata 4-0 Ito

Zennoh Cup Osaka 2023
QF Hayata 4-2 Odo (Hayata to meet Kihara in SF)
QF Yokoi 1-4 Kihara
QF Ito 2-4 Harimoto (Ito to meet Nagasaki in SF, Hayata in F)
QF Nagasaki 4-0 Hirano
SF Hayata 4-1 Kihara
SF Harimoto 4-2 Nagasaki
F Hayata 2-4 Harimoto

https://web.archive.org/web/2024012...nnoh-cup-osaka-11-2526_topic91479_page31.html (07/04/2023 at 8:48am)

Hayata: "Ito is mysteriously strong only when playing me."

 

[pongfugrasshopper]

Hayata's final points total from Race To Paris: 910.5
Nearest competitor (Hirano): 536

That's called dominating or blowing past the competition.

 

[zeio]

Hayata's final points total from Race To Paris: 910.5
Nearest competitor (Hirano): 536

That's called dominating or blowing past the competition.

No one cares about that. Just like how you don't care about Hirano boasting the highest win rate against CNT players in 2022 and 2023 and getting past 3 CNT players at WTT CT Zagreb 2023 where Hayata, Kihara and Harimoto failed, many people in China apparently care much less about the 2 bronze medals because they were won on WYD.

So stop wasting my time.

But are you seriously comparing Hayata's record to Hirano's/Kihara's for this Paris cycle? You seem blinded to the fact that Hayata won a bronze in singles at World Championships. Or won a silver at the Asian Games last year... the first Japanese to make a final in 29 years. Or won 3 WTT Contenders last year. Or is back to back All Japan Champion. Or dominated the Paris race. Oh I'm sure you're well aware of all this, but you refuse to acknowledge it because that would destroy your laughable position that Hayata should retire. And you say I'm the one living a bubble? Sure... okay.

 

[zeio]

Before anyone wastes anymore of my time on Hirano's struggle with her WR, I will just quote Tony's posts which happen to be helpful in this rare case.

Counter that.

https://www.tabletennisdaily.com/fo...der-ljubljana-2024-06-11-16.34172/post-463655

technically, and age wise, yes, he should be fine but how much cash to burn is probably a fair question to ask.
the longer it takes, the sooner his earlier points goes adios.
I have spoken to a few that had the exact same experience (drop of world ranking and had to climb back up)
At first, when they said, it is so difficult... I didn't really understand it.

at least, Kanak gets wild cards into high point tournaments.
else, feeder+contender, won't do it
the continental boost is very important. I doubt he can achieve it without any of this boost or wildcards, as it is mathematically and "luck mode" very difficult.

https://www.tabletennisdaily.com/fo...der-ljubljana-2024-06-11-16.34172/post-463703

yes, I believe so.

going to a WTT and knock out in qualification (due to luck of draw for example) is not healthy for the mind and pocket too. Once he has some higher world ranking from continental boost, he could avoid a lot of earlier round gambles (I mean trouble).

A national team coach from Taiwan told around 2 years ago - once you there (WR), it is easier not to drop (due to skipping so many matches). But you need to get on board first and that is where it is costly and based on luck on draw/gamble (especially times TPE player facing each other very early round)

https://www.tabletennisdaily.com/fo...der-ljubljana-2024-06-11-16.34172/post-463719

not talking about that
he could be injured and come back with zero points or like women's players - getting pregnant etc.
there are so many possibilities on why players are away for months and starting from scratch and face an uphill

that Taiwanese coach told me, it is almost impossible to catch up in 1 year. he said it needs at least 2. 1 to get you up to a level that allows you into contender/star contender, because Feeder is a stepping stone, but you get good players that are also catching up and would knock you out too.

well, Taiwan is in Asia, so I understand that
Kanak just need a number 1 or 2 in Continental, and he can be back fast fast
so he needs to do it before his feeder 125 win, expires.

 

[zeio]

Reproducing another post from World Cup 2024 here.

https://www.tabletennisdaily.com/forum/topics/world-cup-2024.33476/post-454810

Well, Hirano has more matches to play. What are your predictions for where she will get to in this event?

What ranking do you believe Hirano will have at the end of this cycle with all the opportunities she will have?

More matches means less energy to spare and less time to rest and hence harder to adjust, but the difference is really not that much for the 3 of them in 2024 (Hayata 13 (16 if counting WTT SCT Doha 2024), Hirano 12, Ito 8 before World Cup 2024). As always, their minimum goal is to get through the others and meet the CNT players, so QF in Hirano's case. On the difficulty level, CM is now 3rd (after WMY and SYS) and Hirano has come close to winning on 2 occasions and has never lost in straight games in all 3 encounters in this cycle. In terms of past match scores in this cycle, CM is also 3rd (after WYD and SYS).

As for ranking, you're practically asking me to predict the draw, which is nigh impossible to do now with the removal of separation by association. All I can tell you is that she is top-10 material, and that like many Tieba users have said, Hirano has a higher ceiling than Hayata and Ito. As of this writing, Hirano's achievements in singles are still the most impressive and with the highest level of gold content.

 

[NextLevel]

Reminder: no one is wasting your time. You are the one wasting everyone else's time. The selection is over, the Olympics are almost here, and all that is left is for everyone to do their best to play as well as they can and beat the opponent by making the opponent play worse. Again, there is no selection system that would have utilized world ranking and external events that would not have favored Ito and Hayata. If you want to create a world ranking based on wins against China, feel free to do so or wins in civil wars, that is your prerogative. I am sure there are people wondering why the selection process should not have gone into May and allowed Harimoto to be selected over Hirano.

 

[Tony's Table Tennis]

helpful in this rare case.

you just sour.
so many pros says things, but you just feel your are superior over them.
we are used to it

my example isn't even applicable to Hirano - did she start from 0 ranking point 12 months ago? lol

 

[Tony's Table Tennis]

Reminder: no one is wasting your time. You are the one wasting everyone else's time. The selection is over, the Olympics are almost here, and all that is left is for everyone to do their best to play as well as they can and beat the opponent by making the opponent play worse. Again, there is no selection system that would have utilized world ranking and external events that would not have favored Ito and Hayata. If you want to create a world ranking based on wins against China, feel free to do so or wins in civil wars, that is your prerogative. I am sure there are people wondering why the selection process should not have gone into May and allowed Harimoto to be selected over Hirano.

he should send a proposal of how his selection works and send it to JTTA and see if they respond.
than oppose posting them on TTD and expect JTTA to come and read it here

this reminds me about sjan who "communicated" with all 200 member associations, because he post his question to all 200 of them on TTD 10 years ago....

 

[zeio]

In the latest episode of アスリートDays/Athlete Days that aired on 6/13, it's revealed Hirano headed to the shrine and got an omikuji on New Year's Day of 2024.

The first line of the omikuji is an apt warning on what almost happened at Zennihon Takkyu 2024.
願望 初めにきをつけねば中途でやぶれる

She also touched on how her mindset, that she "couldn't lose to other players", got the best of her and she succumbed to fear in the Tokyo 2020 cycle.

 

[zeio]

Reminder: no one is wasting your time. You are the one wasting everyone else's time. The selection is over, the Olympics are almost here, and all that is left is for everyone to do their best to play as well as they can and beat the opponent by making the opponent play worse. Again, there is no selection system that would have utilized world ranking and external events that would not have favored Ito and Hayata. If you want to create a world ranking based on wins against China, feel free to do so or wins in civil wars, that is your prerogative. I am sure there are people wondering why the selection process should not have gone into May and allowed Harimoto to be selected over Hirano.

Also allow me to remind you that it was you that got us into this in the first place unfortunately and I first urged you to stop wasting my time during Singapore Smash 2024. I have better things to do than to repeat myself for 3 months.

There is a fair-and-square selection system that would not have favored Ito and Hayata - round-robin. The H2Hs among Hayata, Hirano and Ito back that up. In fact, Miwa's brother told the media round-robins would've been more understandable at the start of the race. 3 to 4 round-robins with decreasing number of players spread across 2 years would've sufficed. However, doing it this way makes it difficult to commercialize the events and sell tickets, which would go against the sponsorship interests of JTTA.

Whatever the case, one reporter already cast doubts over the future of fairness and transparency ahead of WTTC 2024 and expressed that the selection system must change for LA2028.

パリを待たずに検証を　必ず変わる選考方式〔卓球パリ五輪代表選考の視点〕
https://www.jiji.com/jc/article?k=2024020900907&g=spo

 

[zeio]

First of 2-part article on Hirano by TAKAGI Mina.

「あぁ、この子は本気なんだ」“キティ屋さん”になりたかった平野美宇の夢がオリンピックに変わった日…母・真理子さんが感じた「娘の覚悟」
https://number.bunshun.jp/articles/-/861853

 

[NextLevel]

Also allow me to remind you that it was you that got us into this in the first place unfortunately and I first urged you to stop wasting my time during Singapore Smash 2024. I have better things to do than to repeat myself for 3 months.

There is a fair-and-square selection system that would not have favored Ito and Hayata - round-robin. The H2Hs among Hayata, Hirano and Ito back that up. In fact, Miwa's brother told the media round-robins would've been more understandable at the start of the race. 3 to 4 round-robins with decreasing number of players spread across 2 years would've sufficed. However, doing it this way makes it difficult to commercialize the events and sell tickets, which would go against the sponsorship interests of JTTA.

Whatever the case, one reporter already cast doubts over the future of fairness and transparency ahead of WTTC 2024 and expressed that the selection system must change for LA2028.

パリを待たずに検証を　必ず変わる選考方式〔卓球パリ五輪代表選考の視点〕
https://www.jiji.com/jc/article?k=2024020900907&g=spo

Again: do not confuse my knowledge or lack thereof with your desire to bellyache and tell professional players how to manage their careers. It is always one arrogant excuse after another. And pretending to be omniscient when doing it. One claim was that Hirano had never been straight setted by Chen Meng before the World Cup as evidene of Hirano's special potential. When Chen Meng did it in emphatic fashion at the World Cup, then of course, it became about potential injuries Hirano was carrying or something else. Everyone just wants to see the players do well. All the complaints over things that just serve your omniscience are not of interest to anyone.

My last post on the subject. I will avoid the potential to be accused of starting such stuff in the future.