JTTA: Selection System to be Revamped for Paris 2024

[NextLevel]

Still not getting it and still in denial.

Past selection systems used to end right before the Olympic year, with the 3rd member announced early the following year. With the revamped selection system, the time that should've been spent on training is now being used to play tournaments in a last-ditch effort to catch up and secure better seeding. How did they end up like this? Where were they again when players from other teams were busy grabbing points at WTT SCT Doha, CT Doha and SCT Goa 2024? Now they won't even have time for a proper training camp before heading for Paris. Despite being the 2nd seed after CHN, the teamwork of JPN does not even compare to that of KOR.

卓球女子が仙台で合宿開始／福原「また宮城にメダル」
https://www.shikoku-np.co.jp/sports/international/20160701000603
宮城）福原、伊藤両選手が仙台で合宿　リオへ追い込み
https://www.asahi.com/articles/ASJ74554ZJ74UTIL018.html

I shouldn't have to write it out here. Hirano and Ito's game plan (identical events) is to get as many WR points in as few tries here. There are only 4 SCTs before Paris 2024 and because of Zennihon Takkyu 2024 they've missed the two at the start of the year. However, more doesn't necessarily mean better as Hayata demonstrated she couldn't win with 100% certainty even without CNT players around. For Hirano, it's clear as day she wants to focus on replacing the two double-digit points in Ljubljana and Bangkok and that's it. Playing in Lagos and/or Tunis is meaningless if that affects her performance in Ljubljana and Bangkok.

1/2024
WTT SCT Doha
WTT SCT Goa
6
WTT SCT Ljubljana
7
WTT SCT Bangkok

Once again, Ito's current state in the domestic and international scenes has everything to do with the selection race. Recent wins over those teammates and foreign players don't mean jack when they mattered the least. The fact is she has even greater trouble keeping her WR up despite the seeding advantage, all the while having the POOREST record against CNT players and having fared worse than Hirano against non-CNT players in this cycle. As with NextLevel, stop wasting my time with your opinions that don't align with the facts.

https://www.tabletennisdaily.com/fo...-be-revamped-for-paris-2024.24977/post-450783

Thanks for the call out. He gets it, you are just criticizing with the assumption of perfect foresight while diminishing the issues that drove some of the Japanese decisions. Hayata managed to maintain her ranking despite all the things that you have pointed out. Harimoto also has a great ranking despite all thr issues you have pointed out. As Pongfugrasshopper pointed out, Hirano would also have had a great ranking if she had done well at Asian Games. If we used world ranking and ended the selection last year, the selected players would likely have been Ito and Hayata.

Ito's world ranking drop to me is pretty straightforward ‐ she is no longer the focus of anyone, including herself. If she was playing the Olympics, the national and personal investment in solving her problems would be greater. At this point, no one including herself really cares. But if people cared. A lot would change. After the Olympics, if she decides to dedicate herself to the next cycle, a lot can change. She might still have results but the problems might have meaning to her and she really will be the focus of fixing the problems if she is still in Japan's plans.

This is all stuff you already know. But sometimes it helps to remind people of stuff they already know especially when they like to ignore facts in front of their noses.

 

[zeio]

An article on Shinopi, in which he briefly went over his win with Togami over Lebrun brothers at Saudis Smash 2024 and said that he had his sights set on LA 2028 but improved more than he expected.

愛知工業大・篠塚大登　パリオリンピックで鍵を握る、恥ずかしがり屋で熱い「しのぴ」
https://4years.asahi.com/article/15296876

「少し殻を破れた」馬龍との初対戦

恥ずかしがり屋を自認するが、最近、試合でよくほえる。

象徴的だったのが、世界選手権団体戦での中国・馬龍戦だ。東京オリンピックのシングルス王者と初めて対戦したことで、篠塚は「少し殻を破れた」と振り返る。2ゲームを連取されて迎えた第3ゲーム。長いサーブで馬龍を崩し、得意のラリーで押した。

このゲームを取り、第4ゲームもリードしたが、競り負けた。打ち合いを制すたび、篠塚は大声を出した。

「恥ずかしいのもあって、声を出すのは自分には合っていないと思っていた」。だが、本当は「自分も声を出したいと思っていた。相手に圧かけるのもそうだけど、自分を奮い立たせられる。試合では絶対に必要」。意識しないと出なかった声が、最近は自然と出る。「変われたと思います」と篠塚ははにかむ。

結果が伴うにつれて、知名度も上がってきた。

愛称は「しのぴ」。Tリーグのマネジャーにつけられたというお気に入りの呼び名が、ファンの間で定着した。アピールポイントを聞かれると、「自分に自信がないタイプなので……」とはみかみつつ、「最後まであきらめずに頑張れるところだと思います。熱い『しのぴ』を見てほしい」。

"Breaking out of the shell a little bit" in his first match against Ma Long

He admits to being shy, but recently he has been shouting a lot in matches.

A symbolic moment was his match against China's Ma Long in the WTTTC. Playing against the Tokyo Olympic singles champion for the first time, Shinozuka reflected, "I've come out of my shell a little bit." In the third game, Shinozuka had lost two games in a row. He used a long serve to break down Ma Long and pushed through with his favorite rallies.

He won this game and was leading in the fourth game, but lost the match. Every time he restrained the opponent, Shinozuka yelled out loud.

"I was embarrassed, and I thought that shouting wasn't for me." But in reality, "I wanted to shout out too. It's not just to put pressure on the opponent, but it also motivates me. It's absolutely necessary in a match." Recently, he naturally yells out, which he couldn't do without thinking. "I think I've changed," Shinozuka said bashfully.

As he has gotten better results, he has become more well-known.

His nickname is "Shinopi," which he likes was coined by his T-League manager, has stuck with his fans. When asked what his selling point is, he replied, "I'm not the type to have confidence in myself..." and continued, "I think it's the fact that I can keep trying my best and not give up until the end. I want you to watch the passionate "Shinopi."

 

[driversbeat]

M

Still not getting it and still in denial.

Past selection systems used to end right before the Olympic year, with the 3rd member announced early the following year. With the revamped selection system, the time that should've been spent on training is now being used to play tournaments in a last-ditch effort to catch up and secure better seeding. How did they end up like this? Where were they again when players from other teams were busy grabbing points at WTT SCT Doha, CT Doha and SCT Goa 2024? Now they won't even have time for a proper training camp before heading for Paris. Despite being the 2nd seed after CHN, the teamwork of JPN does not even compare to that of KOR.

卓球女子が仙台で合宿開始／福原「また宮城にメダル」
https://www.shikoku-np.co.jp/sports/international/20160701000603
宮城）福原、伊藤両選手が仙台で合宿　リオへ追い込み
https://www.asahi.com/articles/ASJ74554ZJ74UTIL018.html

I shouldn't have to write it out here. Hirano and Ito's game plan (identical events) is to get as many WR points in as few tries here. There are only 4 SCTs before Paris 2024 and because of Zennihon Takkyu 2024 they've missed the two at the start of the year. However, more doesn't necessarily mean better as Hayata demonstrated she couldn't win with 100% certainty even without CNT players around. For Hirano, it's clear as day she wants to focus on replacing the two double-digit points in Ljubljana and Bangkok and that's it. Playing in Lagos and/or Tunis is meaningless if that affects her performance in Ljubljana and Bangkok.

1/2024
WTT SCT Doha
WTT SCT Goa
6
WTT SCT Ljubljana
7
WTT SCT Bangkok

Once again, Ito's current state in the domestic and international scenes has everything to do with the selection race. Recent wins over those teammates and foreign players don't mean jack when they mattered the least. The fact is she has even greater trouble keeping her WR up despite the seeding advantage, all the while having the POOREST record against CNT players and having fared worse than Hirano against non-CNT players in this cycle. As with NextLevel, stop wasting my time with your opinions that don't align with the facts.

https://www.tabletennisdaily.com/fo...-be-revamped-for-paris-2024.24977/post-450783

Missing out on 2 Star Contenders for yet another internal tournament is wild. I don't fancy Japan's chance against China if they're not going to have internal training. Covid 2020/21 was basically one huge internal training session for CNT and look how they steamrolled over the JNT girls at Tokyo.

 

[pongfugrasshopper]

Still not getting it and still in denial.

Past selection systems used to end right before the Olympic year, with the 3rd member announced early the following year. With the revamped selection system, the time that should've been spent on training is now being used to play tournaments in a last-ditch effort to catch up and secure better seeding. How did they end up like this? Where were they again when players from other teams were busy grabbing points at WTT SCT Doha, CT Doha and SCT Goa 2024? Now they won't even have time for a proper training camp before heading for Paris. Despite being the 2nd seed after CHN, the teamwork of JPN does not even compare to that of KOR.

卓球女子が仙台で合宿開始／福原「また宮城にメダル」
https://www.shikoku-np.co.jp/sports/international/20160701000603
宮城）福原、伊藤両選手が仙台で合宿　リオへ追い込み
https://www.asahi.com/articles/ASJ74554ZJ74UTIL018.html

I shouldn't have to write it out here. Hirano and Ito's game plan (identical events) is to get as many WR points in as few tries here. There are only 4 SCTs before Paris 2024 and because of Zennihon Takkyu 2024 they've missed the two at the start of the year. However, more doesn't necessarily mean better as Hayata demonstrated she couldn't win with 100% certainty even without CNT players around. For Hirano, it's clear as day she wants to focus on replacing the two double-digit points in Ljubljana and Bangkok and that's it. Playing in Lagos and/or Tunis is meaningless if that affects her performance in Ljubljana and Bangkok.

1/2024
WTT SCT Doha
WTT SCT Goa
6
WTT SCT Ljubljana
7
WTT SCT Bangkok

Once again, Ito's current state in the domestic and international scenes has everything to do with the selection race. Recent wins over those teammates and foreign players don't mean jack when they mattered the least. The fact is she has even greater trouble keeping her WR up despite the seeding advantage, all the while having the POOREST record against CNT players and having fared worse than Hirano against non-CNT players in this cycle. As with NextLevel, stop wasting my time with your opinions that don't align with the facts.

https://www.tabletennisdaily.com/fo...-be-revamped-for-paris-2024.24977/post-450783

Like I said before, the selection system could use some tweaks. I think they could have done without the T-League Singles tournament and maybe reduce the number of total selection tournaments. The selection system ended with the 2024 All Japan. Were the players not going to prepare for the All Japan even if it was not part of the selection system? But this same selection system that you're ranting about chose the 3 strongest players in singles. I made the case for Kihara as a doubles specialist, but I can see how Miwa is a fine selection as well. The only one scrambling to get her ranking up is Hirano. Back when she was losing internationally, you said she plays well "when it matters". Hayata had no trouble maintaining her high ranking during the selection cycle. And Miwa didn't have any trouble improving her ranking during the selection cycle.

Since you mentioned KOR, maybe a year or so ago I was concerned that S. Korea might be able to give the Japanese women some trouble. Now, I'm feeling more confident that gap between Japan and S. Korea has only increased [Edit: Should be obvious, but I'm referring to the women's teams].

 

[Takkyu_wa_inochi]

it is what it is. Im a big supporter of JNT.
but i can't see the WT getting anything else than the silver medal again.
they are way too strong against any other team than China. even if they replaced any 2 players with Kihara and Ito Nagasaki, Sato or whoever they'd still get this silver medal.

and they can't beat China. whoever plays for Japan.

yes it was "only" 2-3 in the final of WTTTC but WYD will be replaced by WMY. Not the same story. Even with the extra pressure from the Olympics I think the gap is too big. Miwa has trouble winning against Hayata, i don't think she is ready to beat a top Chinese player yet.

---
For MT, i think bronze is not guaranteed at all. It will depend on the draw obviously and the form and luck of the day.

---
For the singles event, i think the odds of getting a silver medal in WS are a bit higher than any previous olympics as CHEN Meng has a few defeats against JNT players but also other players like Bernie, but i see an 85%+ chance for SYS being crowned. She's a class above everyone else, including CM. So depending on the draw there might be a chance for a JNT (or other) player if they play the game of their life against CM.

for MS its however much much more open. FZD seems to have peaked already. Even if he will be well prepared i think physically he's not the same player than 2 years ago. ofc the odds for FZD or WCQ being gold and silver is pretty high but much less high than for WS. HARIMOTO has done it before, he has a small chance against them, even in a best-of-7. and LEBRUNs or CALDERANO and a few others like JORGIC do have a chance as well...

 

[NextLevel]

M

Missing out on 2 Star Contenders for yet another internal tournament is wild. I don't fancy Japan's chance against China if they're not going to have internal training. Covid 2020/21 was basically one huge internal training session for CNT and look how they steamrolled over the JNT girls at Tokyo.

That was the player's choices. If Mima or Miu had done better in the prior qualification events like Hina had, they could have played some of those Star Contenders like Doha and Contenders to the degree they really wanted to, but let's be real, few players miss national championships to participate in a Star Contender if the incentives are properly aligned (sponsors will likely desire it in a table tennis country like Japan), so SCT Goa was a non-starter from day 1 and that had nothing to do with Olympic qualifying.

 

[Takkyu_wa_inochi]

That was the player's choices. If Mima or Miu had done better in the prior qualification events like Hina had, they could have played some of those Star Contenders like Doha and Contenders to the degree they really wanted to, but let's be real, few players miss national championships to participate in a Star Contender if the incentives are properly aligned (sponsors will likely desire it in a table tennis country like Japan), so SCT Goa was a non-starter from day 1 and that had nothing to do with Olympic qualifying.

in Japan its even more than that. The national championships is deep in the hearts of all players here, from amateurs to professionals. For example, Kenta who retired from international competition, is still saying he wants to win the title (even if his chances are the slimmest, he missed the opportunity against Togami)

My own coach whose career is well past him just wants to win another 1 big match there.

Its a matter of pride. They've all been competing in this tournament from a small age, there's a big crowd, its on TV. it lasts a whole week with hundreds of participants, unlike some (European) countries where's there's much less entries and the whole stuff is decided in a weekend.

its like all French tennis players who want to play in the tennis French Open, get through the qualifications and win a round in the main draw (for the weaker ones) or get at least to the 2nd week of competition for the better ones. and thats really the one tournament in the year where they want to perform best.

 

[zeio]

Thanks for the call out. He gets it, you are just criticizing with the assumption of perfect foresight while diminishing the issues that drove some of the Japanese decisions. Hayata managed to maintain her ranking despite all the things that you have pointed out. Harimoto also has a great ranking despite all thr issues you have pointed out. As Pongfugrasshopper pointed out, Hirano would also have had a great ranking if she had done well at Asian Games. If we used world ranking and ended the selection last year, the selected players would likely have been Ito and Hayata.

Ito's world ranking drop to me is pretty straightforward ‐ she is no longer the focus of anyone, including herself. If she was playing the Olympics, the national and personal investment in solving her problems would be greater. At this point, no one including herself really cares. But if people cared. A lot would change. After the Olympics, if she decides to dedicate herself to the next cycle, a lot can change. She might still have results but the problems might have meaning to her and she really will be the focus of fixing the problems if she is still in Japan's plans.

This is all stuff you already know. But sometimes it helps to remind people of stuff they already know especially when they like to ignore facts in front of their noses.

Argh, not this again.

Hayata maintained her WR because she started racking up points right after Tokyo 2020, way ahead of everyone else. By the time Lion Cup, the first trial, came around, she was already ranked 6th, just after Ito who was in 3rd thanks to the 700pts from her Olympic bronze that kept her afloat until 2023/4/4, which secured her a QF finish at WTTC 2023, the 350pts from which didn't expire until 2024/5/28. Hirano, coming in 15th and without either, got hit by the PDR, which severely limited her participation. And then when the Initial Points started expiring in successive waves (2021/1/5-2022/5/3), Hirano was the one that had it the hardest as she had lost her seeding position until World Cup 2024 (2024/4/15-21) for an ITTF event and Saudi Smash (2024/5/1-11) for a WTT event, 2 whole years.

Once again, the points from Asian Games 2022 wouldn't have helped much, most likely 90pts for a QF finish. See last quote. The argument that if they used WR for the selection instead is funny as Hirano would've turned her focus to WTT events and this thread wouldn't have existed. The whole point behind this revamped selection system is fairness, for crying loud. As Miyazaki put it, JTTA had deemed the WR under WTT as unfair, yet they still integrated select WR points into the revamped selection system.

https://www.tabletennisdaily.com/forum/topics/wtt-singapore-smash-2024-3-7-3-17.33147/post-446973

Man, how many times have I read this reasoning? Hirano gave up on WS to focus on WD for Tokyo 2020 and she has been stuck in the top 20 for the entire Paris 2024 cycle.

Tieba users have discussed how the same thing has kept QTY from playing, who lost to SYS in the final at Singapore Smash 2023. The PDR has prevented her from participating in CT and SCT for much of 2023 (she has been stuck in #7 forever for that reason), regardless of CNT's selection system. If QTY doesn't reach the final this time, she will drop to the 30s.

So you are mixing up strength with draw here, the latter of which doesn't even have to do with luck now.

https://www.ittf.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/2024_10_SEN_WS.html
1 SYS, 14
2 CM, 12
3 WMY, 13
4 WYD, 12
6 CXT, 10
7 QTY, 7

https://www.ittf.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/2024_9_SEN_WS.html
1 SYS, 14
2 CM, 12
3 WYD, 13
4 WMY, 13
6 CXT, 10
7 QTY, 8

https://www.tabletennisdaily.com/forum/topics/wtt-singapore-smash-2024-3-7-3-17.33147/post-447071

Please. Go look up their world ranking at the start and end of the race. This is wasting my time. If anything, it's Ito who has not been keeping up.

The selection race officially started after Zennihon Takkyu 2022, 1/24-30 and ended after Zennihon Takkyu 2024, 1/22-28
Initial points from 2020 were reduced to 20% from 1/2022 onward, and 0% from 5/2022 onward
ITTF TTWR 2022/2/1, 2022/5/3, 2024/1/30
Ito 3 (4 events), 6 (5), 10 (10)
Hayata 6 (6 events), 5 (7), 5 (17)
Hirano 15 (4 events), 44 (5), 18 (11)
Kihara 52 (3 events), 15 (6), 25 (13)
Nagasaki 67 (2 events), 96 (5), 26 (12)
Harimoto unranked (624 as of 2022/3/15), 71 (4), 16 (14)

https://www.tabletennisdaily.com/forum/topics/wtt-singapore-smash-2024-3-7-3-17.33147/post-447077

Stop wasting my time. Answer the question. Why did WTT suspend PDR for WTT CT and SCT until Paris 2024?

https://www.tabletennisdaily.com/fo...-be-revamped-for-paris-2024.24977/post-455775

The point difference for a QF or R16 finish at Asian Games 2022 was only 45 pts, wouldn't help much.

 

[NextLevel]

Argh, not this again.

Hayata maintained her WR because she started racking up points right after Tokyo 2020, way ahead of everyone else. By the time Lion Cup, the first trial, came around, she was already ranked 6th, just after Ito who was in 3rd thanks to the 700pts from her Olympic bronze that kept her afloat until 2023/4/4, which secured her a QF finish at WTTC 2023, the 350pts from which didn't expire until 2024/5/28. Hirano, coming in 15th and without either, got hit by the PDR, which severely limited her participation. And then when the Initial Points started expiring in successive waves (2021/1/5-2022/5/3), Hirano was the one that had it the hardest as she had lost her seeding position until World Cup 2024 (2024/4/15-21) for an ITTF event and Saudi Smash (2024/5/1-11) for a WTT event, 2 whole years.

Once again, the points from Asian Games 2022 wouldn't have helped much, most likely 90pts for a QF finish. See last quote. The argument that if they used WR for the selection instead is funny as Hirano would've turned her focus to WTT events and this thread wouldn't have existed. The whole point behind this revamped selection system is fairness, for crying loud. As Miyazaki put it, JTTA had deemed the WR as unfair.

https://www.tabletennisdaily.com/forum/topics/wtt-singapore-smash-2024-3-7-3-17.33147/post-446973


https://www.tabletennisdaily.com/forum/topics/wtt-singapore-smash-2024-3-7-3-17.33147/post-447071


https://www.tabletennisdaily.com/fo...-be-revamped-for-paris-2024.24977/post-455775

You should take your time to read what you just wrote - you are pointing out that Hirano would have turned her focus to WR even though the PDR didn't allow her to enter events. And you are arguing that Hayata maintained her WR because of things she did in 2021 that Hirano supposedly couldn't do. IT's like Hirano could have raised her world ranking but she could not. Which is it? And aren't these the very fairness issues that the Japanese system tried to address?

The whole point here is that it would have been a miracle to get to a fair system based on World Ranking input that did not give Ito and Hayata a significant edge. You are agreeing with this, but want to absolve Hirano of any responsibility or possibility of getting a better ranking. The Asian Games quarter final was against Sun Yingsha - you are admitting she would have had no chance despite beating Sun Yingsha in Zagreb and her prodigious abilities?

As Takkyu and others pointed out, once we accept that no one is beating China, what is the point of all this other than fairness and to the degree that Hayata has already established seeding, what advantage did Harimoto have that Hirano did not in terms of getting the World Ranking she currently has? Just dumb luck?

At a certain point, in things this complicated, it is a waste of time to continue to blame this and that based on what narrative is preferred and to just accept that what happened wasn't ideal but it wasn't really because the JNT was incompetent - they addressed really important issues that affected one part of things, but which might not have made Japan ideally competitive. But all of that might not even matter if Hayata wins the bronze and China performs as expected.

 

[zeio]

M

Missing out on 2 Star Contenders for yet another internal tournament is wild. I don't fancy Japan's chance against China if they're not going to have internal training. Covid 2020/21 was basically one huge internal training session for CNT and look how they steamrolled over the JNT girls at Tokyo.

Well, 楊玉華/Yang Yuhua has warned about it.

伝説の男・楊玉華、パリ五輪代表選考を語る。「選手は監督が選ぶべきだと思います」
https://world-tt.com/blog/news/archives/65644

https://www.tabletennisdaily.com/fo...ld-cup-2023-chengdu-12-4-10.31810/post-434816

I understand Hayata's desire to secure the singles spot first but realizing she has to change the way she plays ONLY after losing to WMY at WTT CS Frankfurt 2023 is just way too late now and the "sequela" is not just affecting herself but the team as well. Post-WTTC 2023 would've been the best time to do so but I guess she prioritized Asian Games 2022 over that and as Mizutani predicted she lost in the same way against SYS at ATTC 2023 and Asian Games 2022. As 楊玉華/Yang Yuhua said in the interview with ITO Jyota on the selection system, "even if you don't fall out of the race, you'll have less time to come up with measures for China". The Tieba thread about Hirano being the only one who looks professional and the one comment about Hayata not being as good as Hirano mentally in WT makes more and more sense now.

 

[pongfugrasshopper]

In addition to the Asian Games, there was also Hirano's painful loss to Pavade at the 2023 Contender Lima. There was also the painful loss to Miwa at 2023 Champions Frankfurt.

@zeio, back in March you didn't at all seem concerned about Hirano's WR saying there would be many chances to raise it. Now you're raising alarm bells. But it was up to Hirano to beat Ito at the 2024 Singapore Smash. And if she was really concerned about grabbing that 4th seed, she would attend Contender Lagos which I think she would be a strong favorite to win and at the same time limiting the number of pts. SYB gets. Considering there's 2 days of qualifiers for SC Bangkok, there's almost 2 weeks after the end of Lagos to rest/prepare for SC Bangkok.

To be fair, she's at least back in the top 10 for a moral victory. I don't recall if there's separation by association at the Olympics. I hope so. And I also hope Hirano gets a good draw. Right now, we can only hope for the best.

 

[driversbeat]

In addition to the Asian Games, there was also Hirano's painful loss to Pavade at the 2023 Contender Lima. There was also the painful loss to Miwa at 2023 Champions Frankfurt.

@zeio, back in March you didn't at all seem concerned about Hirano's WR saying there would be many chances to raise it. Now you're raising alarm bells. But it was up to Hirano to beat Ito at the 2024 Singapore Smash. And if she was really concerned about grabbing that 4th seed, she would attend Contender Lagos which I think she would be a strong favorite to win and at the same time limiting the number of pts. SYB gets. Considering there's 2 days of qualifiers for SC Bangkok, there's almost 2 weeks after the end of Lagos to rest/prepare for SC Bangkok.

To be fair, she's at least back in the top 10 for a moral victory. I don't recall if there's separation by association at the Olympics. I hope so. And I also hope Hirano gets a good draw. Right now, we can only hope for the best.

IIRC Hirano forfeited the Pavade match as a preventative measure against injury instead of outright losing. Ito falling sick at 2023 Nagoya + Hayata sitting out of WTTC finals 2022 are also signs of how brutal the entire schedule has been between endless internal trials, T-league, and world tournaments. I can sort of understand why Ito has been complaining about the schedule and wants time off from XTC / Olympics to focus on her own training instead of travelling for yet another tournament.

The 'right people; may have been chosen this time, but it's easy to forget how JNT was just one early Hirano elimination away from ending up with a repeat of 2020, where the wrong person was chosen for singles forcing their ideal 2nd singles candidate to play teams only. The lack of centralised training may have also contributed to the current situation where JNT has yet to put together a strong WD pairing for the Olympics + having no security of avoiding China in XD before the finals.

As much as I like Liu Shiwen, China's 'less fair' coaches discretion model seems to have led them to picking the right people between 2012 to 2020/1. It's only in this cycle where they adopted a (relatively) more transparent points based system where they nearly sent WYD to the Olympics.

 

[NextLevel]

In addition to the Asian Games, there was also Hirano's painful loss to Pavade at the 2023 Contender Lima. There was also the painful loss to Miwa at 2023 Champions Frankfurt.

@zeio, back in March you didn't at all seem concerned about Hirano's WR saying there would be many chances to raise it. Now you're raising alarm bells. But it was up to Hirano to beat Ito at the 2024 Singapore Smash. And if she was really concerned about grabbing that 4th seed, she would attend Contender Lagos which I think she would be a strong favorite to win and at the same time limiting the number of pts. SYB gets. Considering there's 2 days of qualifiers for SC Bangkok, there's almost 2 weeks after the end of Lagos to rest/prepare for SC Bangkok.

To be fair, she's at least back in the top 10 for a moral victory. I don't recall if there's separation by association at the Olympics. I hope so. And I also hope Hirano gets a good draw. Right now, we can only hope for the best.

I don't think separation by association is as big a deal as avoiding China before the QF - if Hirano by some miracle falls into Shin Yubin's quarter, I think that will be sufficient. Though of course, if they were sending Miwa, they would likely have the 4th seed as long as she defends Tunis. I wonder whether there are any landmines for SYB in Lagos...

 

[NextLevel]

IIRC Hirano forfeited the Pavade match as a preventative measure against injury instead of outright losing. Ito falling sick at 2023 Nagoya + Hayata sitting out of WTTC finals 2022 are also signs of how brutal the entire schedule has been between endless internal trials, T-league, and world tournaments. I can sort of understand why Ito has been complaining about the schedule and wants time off from XTC / Olympics to focus on her own training instead of travelling for yet another tournament.

The 'right people; may have been chosen this time, but it's easy to forget how JNT was just one early Hirano elimination away from ending up with a repeat of 2020, where the wrong person was chosen for singles forcing their ideal 2nd singles candidate to play teams only. The lack of centralised training may have also contributed to the current situation where JNT has yet to put together a strong WD pairing for the Olympics + having no security of avoiding China in XD before the finals.

As much as I like Liu Shiwen, China's 'less fair' coaches discretion model seems to have led them to picking the right people between 2012 to 2020/1. It's only in this cycle where they adopted a (relatively) more transparent points based system where they nearly sent WYD to the Olympics.

Exactly - a lot goes back to whether fairness is a good or bad thing. China has a lot of talent so it isn't obviously a problem yet, but all it will take is for them to start losing a few and then there will be a real debate whether the system is sufficiently meritocratic or not, even with coaches' discretion. But the talent surfeit makes the coaches' discretion not as impactful. These things can wreck teams and drive lawsuits in democracies. Of course, it is an open question whether Ito qualifying would have been such a bad thing, but that I will leave alone at the moment...

 

[zeio]

You should take your time to read what you just wrote - you are pointing out that Hirano would have turned her focus to WR even though the PDR didn't allow her to enter events. And you are arguing that Hayata maintained her WR because of things she did in 2021 that Hirano supposedly couldn't do. IT's like Hirano could have raised her world ranking but she could not. Which is it? And aren't these the very fairness issues that the Japanese system tried to address?

The whole point here is that it would have been a miracle to get to a fair system based on World Ranking input that did not give Ito and Hayata a significant edge. You are agreeing with this, but want to absolve Hirano of any responsibility or possibility of getting a better ranking. The Asian Games quarter final was against Sun Yingsha - you are admitting she would have had no chance despite beating Sun Yingsha in Zagreb and her prodigious abilities?

As Takkyu and others pointed out, once we accept that no one is beating China, what is the point of all this other than fairness and to the degree that Hayata has already established seeding, what advantage did Harimoto have that Hirano did not in terms of getting the World Ranking she currently has? Just dumb luck?

At a certain point, in things this complicated, it is a waste of time to continue to blame this and that based on what narrative is preferred and to just accept that what happened wasn't ideal but it wasn't really because the JNT was incompetent - they addressed really important issues that affected one part of things, but which might not have made Japan ideally competitive. But all of that might not even matter if Hayata wins the bronze and China performs as expected.

You were the one suggesting the improbable scenario and now you're telling me to read what I just wrote? Stop wasting my time.

Remember how PDR used to work for once. Before the change starting in 2023, PDR worked in ascending order (higher ranked players had priority). Though before that change, Ito was rejected by PDR (which was applied in descending order) at least once back at WTT FEE Fremont 2022, where CIC and CSY were given the WTT Nominations instead. Ironically, in Hayata's first of 2 CT events in 2022, WTT CT Zagreb 2022, she lost to Hirano, whom was ranked 45th and reached the final ultimately. Hirano went on to win WTT FEE Otocec 2022 the next week. It was after these 2 stops that Hirano got back in the top 20 and became stuck due to PDR, which impeded her eligibility to play CT/SCT and FEE after 7/2022 (e.g. WTT FEE Olomouc 2022). If Hirano didn't get a WTT Nomination for WTT Feeder ESS 2022 and WTT CT Almaty 2022, she would've played just as little as Hayata did (5 events). And in Hayata's second and last CT event that year, WTT CT Almaty 2022, she and Hirano ran into each other in the SF, with Hayata winning this time.

Hirano either lost to her teammates (Ito, Hayata) or CNT players (WYD, HZJ, ZR) in 2022:
Singapore Smash 2022, R64 3-1 YXX, R32 0-3 WYD
WTT CT Zagreb 2022, R32 3-0 LHC, R16 3-2 Hayata, QF 3-1 CY, SF 4-2 SXN, F 2-4 Ito
WTT FEE Otocec 2022, R64 4-0 Wegrzyn, R32 4-1 Ghosh, R16 4-0 Plaian, QF 4-3 Kim Hayeong, SF 4-1 Qin Yuxuan, F 4-1 O. Haruna
WTT SCT ESS 2022, QR32 3-0 Chasselin, QR16 3-0 Kim Hayeong, R64 3-0 Dragoman, R32 3-0 YXX, R16 0-3 Hayata
WTT FEE ESS 2022, R64 4-0 Zhang Sofia-Xuan, R32 4-1 Yoon Hyobin, R16 2-4 HZJ
WTT CT Tunis 2022, R32 3-1 Balazova, R16 2-3 ZR
WTT CT Almaty 2022, R32 3-0 Fan Shuhan, R16 3-0 Xu Yi, QF 3-0 Lily Zhang, SF 1-4 Hayata

 

[NextLevel]

You were the one suggesting the improbable scenario and now you're telling me to read what I just wrote? Stop wasting my time.

Remember how PDR used to work for once. Before the change starting in 2023, PDR worked in ascending order (higher ranked players had priority). Though before that change, Ito was rejected by PDR (which was applied in descending order) at least once back at WTT FEE Fremont 2022, where CIC and CSY were given the WTT Nominations instead. Ironically, in Hayata's first of 2 CT events in 2022, WTT CT Zagreb 2022, she lost to Hirano, whom was ranked 45th and reached the final ultimately. Hirano went on to win WTT FEE Otocec 2022 the next week. It was after these 2 stops that Hirano got back in the top 20 and became stuck due to PDR, which impeded her eligibility to play CT/SCT and FEE after 7/2022 (e.g. WTT FEE Olomouc 2022). If Hirano didn't get a WTT Nomination for WTT Feeder ESS 2022 and WTT CT Almaty 2022, she would've played just as little as Hayata did (5 events). And in Hayata's second and last CT event that year, WTT CT Almaty 2022, she and Hirano ran into each other in the SF, with Hayata winning this time.

Hirano either lost to her teammates (Ito, Hayata) or CNT players (WYD, HZJ, ZR) in 2022:
Singapore Smash 2022, R64 3-1 YXX, R32 0-3 WYD
WTT CT Zagreb 2022, R32 3-0 LHC, R16 3-2 Hayata, QF 3-1 CY, SF 4-2 SXN, F 2-4 Ito
WTT FEE Otocec 2022, R64 4-0 Wegrzyn, R32 4-1 Ghosh, R16 4-0 Plaian, QF 4-3 Kim Hayeong, SF 4-1 Qin Yuxuan, F 4-1 O. Haruna
WTT SCT ESS 2022, QR32 3-0 Chasselin, QR16 3-0 Kim Hayeong, R64 3-0 Dragoman, R32 3-0 YXX, R16 0-3 Hayata
WTT FEE ESS 2022, R64 4-0 Zhang Sofia-Xuan, R32 4-1 Yoon Hyobin, R16 2-4 HZJ
WTT CT Tunis 2022, R32 3-1 Balazova, R16 2-3 ZR
WTT CT Almaty 2022, R32 3-0 Fan Shuhan, R16 3-0 Xu Yi, QF 3-0 Lily Zhang, SF 1-4 Hayata

Stop wasting everyone's time. The JTTA addressed a problem with fairness and now you are accusing them of addressing it badly simply because they didn't get everything right when in reality, they just about provided the only system that would have resulted in the team they currently have as just about any other system would have kept Ito on the team. And then we get a post complaining about players missing events and refusing to make the players take responsibility for their performance in the internal trials. The whole bellyaching lacks nuance. Like most intelligent people, the Japanese will learn from their mistakes. And of course, you will still be asking professional players to retire.

 

[zeio]

Talk to the hand.

Harimoto, Ito, and Ishikawa have all openly complained at the start and throughout the selection race. Ito Jota has complained multiple times in his column on Yahoo Japan. Even coaches and former CNT players like Yang Yuhua has expressed concerns. Baba has actually softened her position 1 year in whereas Miyazaki just told the players to suck it up. As driversbeat noted, JTTA is lucky Hirano made it this time. Hirano even said in a TV interview aired in an episode of Takkyu Japan that she would've dropped out if she didn't win Zennoh Cup Funabashi 2022.

It's you and pongfugrasshopper that keep nagging about how Hirano failed to rank up when Ito and Hayata had a substantial head start, while turning a blind eye to Ito's performance in both domestic and international stages. Hirano still has the best record against the CNT in this cycle and stepped up when needed. Counter that. Kihara still has the best record against the rest of the world. Counter that.

 

[zeio]

Like I said before, the selection system could use some tweaks. I think they could have done without the T-League Singles tournament and maybe reduce the number of total selection tournaments. The selection system ended with the 2024 All Japan. Were the players not going to prepare for the All Japan even if it was not part of the selection system? But this same selection system that you're ranting about chose the 3 strongest players in singles. I made the case for Kihara as a doubles specialist, but I can see how Miwa is a fine selection as well. The only one scrambling to get her ranking up is Hirano. Back when she was losing internationally, you said she plays well "when it matters". Hayata had no trouble maintaining her high ranking during the selection cycle. And Miwa didn't have any trouble improving her ranking during the selection cycle.

Since you mentioned KOR, maybe a year or so ago I was concerned that S. Korea might be able to give the Japanese women some trouble. Now, I'm feeling more confident that gap between Japan and S. Korea has only increased [Edit: Should be obvious, but I'm referring to the women's teams].

For WTT's sake, go look up their participation for once.

Harimoto and Togami played WTT SCT and CT Doha 2024. Harimoto even told the press that he and Togami played both to grab WR points ONLY and thought it was a good decision.

Matsushima, M. Yoshimura, Uda and Shinozuka played WTT SCT Doha 2024.

Hayata, Miwa and Nagasaki played WTT SCT Doha 2024.

As a result, JJH and SYB got 400pts and 280pts at CT Doha, respectively. CIC and Mittelham got 600pts and 420pts, respectively, whereas YXX and SYB got 140pts each at SCT Goa. All of them got a big boost that could've been prevented had JNT players signed up.

Had the race ended last year, the only event they would've missed would be WTT SCT Goa 2024, not ideal but still better than missing out on all 3 like Hirano and Ito.

1/2024
8-13 WTT SCT Doha 2024
14-20 WTT CT Doha 2024
22-28 Zennihon Takkyu 2024
23-28 WTT SCT Goa 2024

 

[pongfugrasshopper]

Talk to the hand.

Harimoto, Ito, and Ishikawa have all openly complained at the start and throughout the selection race. Ito Jota has complained multiple times in his column on Yahoo Japan. Even coaches and former CNT players like Yang Yuhua has expressed concerns. Baba has actually softened her position 1 year in whereas Miyazaki just told the players to suck it up. As driversbeat noted, JTTA is lucky Hirano made it this time. Hirano even said in a TV interview aired in an episode of Takkyu Japan that she would've dropped out if she didn't win Zennoh Cup Funabashi 2022.

It's you and pongfugrasshopper that keep nagging about how Hirano failed to rank up when Ito and Hayata had a substantial head start, while turning a blind eye to Ito's performance in both domestic and international stages. Hirano still has the best record against the CNT in this cycle and stepped up when needed. Counter that. Kihara still has the best record against the rest of the world. Counter that.

I"ve already acknowledged Mima Ito's rankings decline. But are you seriously comparing Hayata's record to Hirano's/Kihara's for this Paris cycle? You seem blinded to the fact that Hayata won a bronze in singles at World Championships. Or won a silver at the Asian Games last year... the first Japanese to make a final in 29 years. Or won 3 WTT Contenders last year. Or is back to back All Japan Champion. Or dominated the Paris race. Oh I'm sure you're well aware of all this, but you refuse to acknowledge it because that would destroy your laughable position that Hayata should retire. And you say I'm the one living a bubble? Sure... okay.

 

[zeio]

In addition to the Asian Games, there was also Hirano's painful loss to Pavade at the 2023 Contender Lima. There was also the painful loss to Miwa at 2023 Champions Frankfurt.

@zeio, back in March you didn't at all seem concerned about Hirano's WR saying there would be many chances to raise it. Now you're raising alarm bells. But it was up to Hirano to beat Ito at the 2024 Singapore Smash. And if she was really concerned about grabbing that 4th seed, she would attend Contender Lagos which I think she would be a strong favorite to win and at the same time limiting the number of pts. SYB gets. Considering there's 2 days of qualifiers for SC Bangkok, there's almost 2 weeks after the end of Lagos to rest/prepare for SC Bangkok.

To be fair, she's at least back in the top 10 for a moral victory. I don't recall if there's separation by association at the Olympics. I hope so. And I also hope Hirano gets a good draw. Right now, we can only hope for the best.

Oh, please. I complained loud and clear at Singapore Smash 2024. Hirano kept running into Hayata and Ito throughout this Olympic cycle, mostly in R16 (look up the sorry-ass points). Note that Hayata and Ito have never defeated the other two in succession either domestically or internationally, whereas Hirano has defeated both in succession domestically (Zennoh Cup Funabashi 2022 that saved her WS spot) and defeated Hayata twice internationally (almost beat both at Singapore Smash 2024.) Because Hayata and Ito have been ranked so high and close and hence seeded farther away, they never had the chance to meet, other than the time at Singapore Smash 2024, which was "foiled" by Hirano. If Hayata were to play Ito, Ito would have the better odds.

Once again, players can't peak like that continuously for several weeks. SYB is the best example. She has been playing non-stop and her recent results have only gotten worse and worse. So please.