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World Cup 2024
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It's an event in China, it is sometimes better to have the personal coach instead of the national team coach .
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6 months is a long time for a 15 year old with a good vengeance record. Just saying.
To make the point a bit clearer, I am not even sure 6 months ago, Miwa had beaten Hayata.
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More matches means less energy to spare and less time to rest and hence harder to adjust, but the difference is really not that much for the 3 of them in 2024 (Hayata 13 (16 if counting WTT SCT Doha 2024), Hirano 12, Ito 8 before World Cup 2024). As always, their minimum goal is to get through the others and meet the CNT players, so QF in Hirano's case. On the difficulty level, CM is now 3rd (after WMY and SYS) and Hirano has come close to winning on 2 occasions and has never lost in straight games in all 3 encounters in this cycle. In terms of past match scores in this cycle, CM is also 3rd (after WYD and SYS).
As for ranking, you're practically asking me to predict the draw, which is nigh impossible to do now with the removal of separation by association. All I can tell you is that she is top-10 material, and that like many Tieba users have said, Hirano has a higher ceiling than Hayata and Ito. As of this writing, Hirano's achievements in singles are still the most impressive and with the highest level of gold content.
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The difference is not that much, so therefore, none of them should retire even in jest.
The "gold content" statement is all true, based on achievements that she had in the 2016 to 2018 period, while noting that her World Cup win was in the absence of China. Remove those achievements, Hayata has dominated table tennis for Japan for this Olympic cycle and Ito for the prior, unless of course, all that matters is beating China.
By the way, you don't consider your claim that those people whose rankings are propped up by continental points will fade under pressure to be a prediction? Objectively evaluated, how has that fared?
As for ceiling, we will let the results determine that. Everyone is working hard, she can demonstrate her ceiling in her matches rather than being used as a totem to devalue the performances of those also in the arena.
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In most countries (except china), a player retires only when he/she wants most of the time. If he/she is not picked by the national team, he/she can still play for commercial tournament...
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WYD: I approve this comment.
WYD went from beating Ito and Hayata at Asian Cup 2022 and Harimoto at WTT SCT Goa 2023 (the reason for choosing her for WTTC 2023 as given by MLin) to losing to Hirano (playing the catalyst role again like in Tokyo 2020 cycle), Hayata, Hayata, Kihara, Hirano, Harimoto, in that order, for a whopping total of 6 times in 2023 (4 times) and 2024 (2 times).
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There's been matches where Chinese guys played outside China, and if not for the fangirls, nobody cheered for the Chinese team at all.
There's this awful stench from your comments that allude to rest of the world being "normal" and the Chinese being "weird", and as someone who has been to a few places, most people are the same, and have similar desires, respond to similar incentives.
As usual, good criticism is marred by jarring thinly veiled bile that one wonders what your priorities are.
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I think this is the first time that the Harimoto siblings get into the quarter finals and both have good chances to advancing to semifinals.
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Yes. Tomokazu does have a tall order against Kallberg. Miwa against Diaz, that is more likely to be a strategy thing. But Kallberg when his game is on is just hard to beat. Even Harimoto finds Kallberg borderline unplayable.
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Here, to get you up to speed.
Predictions:
On Boll losing before meeting China in MS at Rio 2016 and Tokyo 2020
https://www.tabletennisdaily.com/forum/topics/wtt-singapore-smash-2024-3-7-3-17.33147/post-447975
On Ovtcharov losing before meeting China in MS at WTTC 2017 and WTTC 2019
http://mytabletennis.net/forum/foru...&title=ettu-champions-league-men-live#1408819
https://www.tabletennisdaily.com/fo...e-tennis-championships-2019.20811/post-269626
https://www.tabletennisdaily.com/fo...e-tennis-championships-2019.20811/post-270671
On Felix Lebrun being the only young European prospect and not Moregard and Alexis, and also Cho Daeseong catching up
https://web.archive.org/web/2024012...9691513170&w=oSrYvzBDSazJX2JnDHe93N0wjhkvt-eJ (11/15/2021 at 9:23pm, 11/17/2021 at 4:12am)
https://web.archive.org/web/2024012...7686900248&w=MWxarVtFhbDPlQFN8I7AslE7B6fypT1V (03/03/2023 at 11:03am, 03/06/2023 at 12:41am)
On Miwa's brother being ranked within top 30 to top 10 in 2020 and Harimoto's subsequent comment in 9/2021 on the odds of losing to top 30 players despite his very high world ranking
http://mytabletennis.net/forum/foru...1&title=2017-wttc-germany-may-29jun-5#1451691
https://web.archive.org/web/2024012...d-of-the-harimoto-dream_topic91046_page5.html (11/30/2022 at 2:22am)
On Ishikawa's untimely career peak and awkward role in the team at the age of 23, with the meteoric rise of Ito and Hirano at the age of 16, especially the latter for blocking her a 5th (4th consecutive) Zennihon Takkyu title after winning World Cup 2016 and setting the stage for ATTC 2017 and WTTC 2017
http://mytabletennis.net/forum/foru...tle=2016-ittf-world-tour-swedish-open#1449237
As of today:
Boll has never run into a CNT player in MS at the Olympics.
Ovtcharov has not run into a CNT player in MS after WTTC 2007 and WTTC 2009. He even lost to the same player at WTTC 2019 and WTTC 2023 (skipped WTTC 2021 because of a broken leg?).
Felix is still the only young European prospect and Moregard has not lived up to being the WTTC 2021 MS vice-champion. Alexis is still a wall to his brother and starting to affect his trajectory.
Cho Daeseong is catching up for real in 2024 that people finally notice.
Miwa's brother is still working on being a true top 10 player (starting to look better in 2024).
Ishikawa has finally retired, with her career being cut short by Ito (washed up now) and Hirano (still going strong).
This took a good while to compile. I wouldn't have been able to make all these predictions if I believed what you said about sample size. Now, why don't you try to compile some stats and start to make some predictions with your human intuition instead of being bound by mathematical theorems?
https://www.wired.com/2016/05/google-alpha-go-ai/
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I guess you dont know these definitions.
To me you get three types of fans
One for the sport, one for the players and then extremely hard core fans, which at the moment I have only ever seen those that fly out of China to visit so many world events, probably visit more events than some of the players that we know of, that has more limited resources to play internationals (self funded).
Since you so clever, these fan boys and girls might not even be in the hall when no Chinese are playing. There are there for a reason and there isn’t any agenda but just from what I saw to what I type here. Even Chinese people know this and they even say these “fans” don’t even play TT.
I have seen fans from the local community and these hardcore fan boys and girls.
Somehow, the local community fans probably also don't play tt and were call out from local Chinese embassies to show support in numbers.
They are also color coded in a way, most of the time wearing red and have all the "fan" resources provided for them.
I have not really seen any other country having such "fan" support structure or the calling of non TT population out from gov departments to support a traveling team.
There come for the Chinese matches and gone again, and back again for Chinese matches.
maybe this is normal to you, but I don't see this as normal, it is quite extreme to be honest
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Alright let's go through these:
https://www.tabletennisdaily.com/forum/topics/wtt-singapore-smash-2024-3-7-3-17.33147/post-447975
As far as Harimoto's subsequent comments, I'm not sure how that relates to a prediction.
I don't think you've ever risked one red penny on sports results, or if you did then you'd be broke pretty quickly if you willfully ignore things like sample size and implied odds. In my experience in forecasting and capping, the type of person that talks about their 'intuition' and furiously pats themselves on the back recalling all their 'hits' while conveniently forgetting all their misses is exactly the type of person that loses their shirt while complaining about their bad luck. But you can try it without money. You can start a thread where you take current betting odds and track your success with paper money.
I actually would consider doing some analysis if I had access to the betting lines because it'd be great if I could profit off following this new sport for me. But I don't. And that's not the point of this discussion in the first place. I'm not the guy on the forum who is presenting myself as the expert on pro table tennis, while denigrating players who lose, obnoxiously shitting on opinions that don't conform his own, and then stroking his cock by bringing up old posts when something serves to prop up your own expertise ego.
I'm just here to tell you that if you can't predict future events if you can't beat current expectations by a trackable and verifiable margin. And if you don't understand the fundamental basics about the math behind it all, then you're not a sage but merely a data collector and aggregator. You're actually very good about that. But don't be mistaken thinking that skill is sufficient to forecast future events.
Your argument is that Boll had lost every single time before meeting China. So it turned out to be an accurate prediction, but based on your own argument it was something to be expected. If you want to go back to find exactly how against expectations the prediction was, go back and calculate the implied probability of him getting to the quarterfinals and meet his first Chinese opponent. If he was a big favorite to, then then the prediction is good.
https://www.tabletennisdaily.com/forum/topics/wtt-singapore-smash-2024-3-7-3-17.33147/post-447975
Same analysis as above.
Sound reasoning based on age of achievements and history to predict success of F. Lebrun over the others mentioned. No problem there.
Don't know the historical context there and if that was an obvious prediction or minority opinion. The thread states that he had just beaten Mizutani who was ranked #6 at the time, and that his coaches were high on him, so maybe breaking top #30 wasnt something people would've vehemently argued against.
As far as Harimoto's subsequent comments, I'm not sure how that relates to a prediction.
What exactly is the prediction here? That teenagers who have potential are more likely to eventually have wins over China than a 23 year old who has already failed at doing it in her career? Maybe some hindsight bias here but wouldn't most people agree with that concept?
You don't believe what I say about sample sizes because you've never had any financial incentive to look into the math and concepts involved in actually making predictions and suffering consequences for being right or wrong. If you actually want to put your money where your mouth is, then there's an actual accepted way among forecasters and bettors all agree on. That is whether your predictions are positive ROI (return on investment) against current market odds.
I don't think you've ever risked one red penny on sports results, or if you did then you'd be broke pretty quickly if you willfully ignore things like sample size and implied odds. In my experience in forecasting and capping, the type of person that talks about their 'intuition' and furiously pats themselves on the back recalling all their 'hits' while conveniently forgetting all their misses is exactly the type of person that loses their shirt while complaining about their bad luck. But you can try it without money. You can start a thread where you take current betting odds and track your success with paper money.
I actually would consider doing some analysis if I had access to the betting lines because it'd be great if I could profit off following this new sport for me. But I don't. And that's not the point of this discussion in the first place. I'm not the guy on the forum who is presenting myself as the expert on pro table tennis, while denigrating players who lose, obnoxiously shitting on opinions that don't conform his own, and then stroking his cock by bringing up old posts when something serves to prop up your own expertise ego.
I'm just here to tell you that if you can't predict future events if you can't beat current expectations by a trackable and verifiable margin. And if you don't understand the fundamental basics about the math behind it all, then you're not a sage but merely a data collector and aggregator. You're actually very good about that. But don't be mistaken thinking that skill is sufficient to forecast future events.
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I don't know who this new commentator is or what is name is but I'm going to start referring to him as "Captain Obvious" from now on.
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You probably have figured it out by now, but just in case — it is all on one table now.
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