lets not get too excited about 2500. lets see if he can reach 2200 first
I want opinions on my chances of pro
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So I'll never be a table tennis pro, but I am a professional business analyst lol. Here is my analysis of two of the top players in the USA:
Kanak Jha is currently world rank 28. Here's a table of his age and USATT rating at the time (based on this page: https://usatt.simplycompete.com/userAccount/trn/3431)
and now Nandan Naresh WR#124 (https://usatt.simplycompete.com/userAccount/up/5520?uai=5520&embedded=&max=20):
As you can see OP- like many others are saying, you have some serious catching up to do. Kanak was almost 2400 when he was your age. Nandan was 2300. You can also see how much the rating hikes slow down once they reached 2300-2400.
A line chart can help you see how it levels off at the higher ratings:
Kanak:
Nandan:
Kanak improved faster in his early years but Nandan eventually closely matched his rated when comparing age-to-age.
Now its not to say your goal is impossible, but when you analyze the best of the best in the USA, you have a lot of work to do. I always think about how Sinner didnt get serious with Tennis until he was 13, so yeah anything is possible, but it really does take more than just work ethic to be the best of the best.
Stay humble, stay hungy and good luck.
Kanak Jha is currently world rank 28. Here's a table of his age and USATT rating at the time (based on this page: https://usatt.simplycompete.com/userAccount/trn/3431)
| Age | Max of Final Rating |
| 6 | 499 |
| 7 | 1179 |
| 8 | 1658 |
| 9 | 2017 |
| 10 | 2265 |
| 11 | 2387 |
| 12 | 2468 |
| 13 | 2635 |
| 14 | 2603 |
| 15 | 2655 |
| 16 | 2708 |
| 17 | 2708 |
| 18 | 2737 |
| 19 | 2746 |
| 21 | 2780 |
| 23 | 2797 |
| 24 | 2828 |
| 25 | 2832 |
and now Nandan Naresh WR#124 (https://usatt.simplycompete.com/userAccount/up/5520?uai=5520&embedded=&max=20):
| Age | Max of Final Rating |
| 5 | 520 |
| 6 | 511 |
| 7 | 827 |
| 8 | 1584 |
| 9 | 2030 |
| 10 | 2206 |
| 11 | 2303 |
| 12 | 2379 |
| 13 | 2381 |
| 14 | 2528 |
| 15 | 2558 |
| 16 | 2686 |
| 17 | 2704 |
| 18 | 2706 |
As you can see OP- like many others are saying, you have some serious catching up to do. Kanak was almost 2400 when he was your age. Nandan was 2300. You can also see how much the rating hikes slow down once they reached 2300-2400.
A line chart can help you see how it levels off at the higher ratings:
Kanak:
Nandan:
Kanak improved faster in his early years but Nandan eventually closely matched his rated when comparing age-to-age.
Now its not to say your goal is impossible, but when you analyze the best of the best in the USA, you have a lot of work to do. I always think about how Sinner didnt get serious with Tennis until he was 13, so yeah anything is possible, but it really does take more than just work ethic to be the best of the best.
Stay humble, stay hungy and good luck.
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He looks talented and he seems determined. Assuming he keeps at it, 2200 is easy and I'd be surprised if he couldn't get to 2300+ in the next couple of years. 2500 is much harder and it would be a great achievement, but I think he's got a chance.
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Id like to see the same thing for Ma Long. Was Ma Long always good? Or did he have a sudden jump in his mid 20s?
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If you could give me the data, i could analyze it for you lol. Does china have a rating system similar to TTR or USATT?
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Stay humble. Although your early progress in the sport is nice, you are still new and there is clearly much you do not know. There are kids your age from the USA, much higher level than you are now, who left their school and home and moved continents to access higher level training. There are several kids at the top national junior level in your region alone that made this commitment and many more across the country.
So, we all admire your work ethic and determination. It is a good thing to have and necessary if you want to succeed. But just because you go to your local club, which is not a high performance club, in all your free time, that does not put you anywhere close to being able to say things like "no other kid is working as hard as me". And saying stuff like that publicly is not a good look especially when you are not anonymous on this forum.
I see that you have only played locally so far. And even locally, as you probably know, you have years of hard work before you can even become the best player in your area. Then multiply that even more to become one of the top in the country, and then even more to become one of the top in the world.
If and when you go to a top national level tournament, you might have an eye-opening experience.
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harder to do analysis since you have a small data set. You have progressed fast, but Kanak and Nandan were playing at your level when they were 9 years old. You did well your last 5 tournaments, but its going to get harder going forward.
I made a little line graph for you...pretty simliar to the one on USATT:
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Comments like this show that you don't fully grasp the magnitude of your goal. The difference between the 100th and 50th ranked player in the world is not much. The biggest difference is getting from top national level player (for countries that aren't top TT countries) which is around 2600 USATT, and making that jump to "able to participate in world level tournaments" which is around 2750 USATT. But that 150 points between 2600 and 2750 is extremely hard, and for many, impossible.
A better goal would be 2500 and you can work your way from there. If you get there in a few years, then you'll have a chance to be on the USA national junior team. Then at that point you will understand the work required to get to a level where you could be on the USA national adult team (2650+, likely 2700+), and then you can start talking to serious clubs, coaches, HPDs, low level leagues etc. about options for training, sponsorship, league play, etc.
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I never said that I work harder than every other kid. I’m saying that I do work very hard more than you would think and for me and my family it is too expensive to move continents to train, I’m making the best out of everything I have and I am gratful for it. And my club is very good it’s just you have never been there
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online forums dont take up storage on your phone dude. dont delete. keep this thread so you can remember it when you make it. and we can remember you.
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Maybe it isn't how you meant it, but anybody reading this exchange will interpret it as "I work harder than all the other kids I'm competing against". No big deal though.
If it is too expensive I definitely understand that, it may actually be cheaper long term to go overseas than pay for training in the USA. That is part of the reason why many top junior players are choosing to train in countries overseas, it is not just about coaching and training level but also cost.
Unfortunately the reality is that, in the USA, elite TT training requires a lot of money. It is not like this in every country but that is the way it is.
Your club may be very good, I don't know, but what I do know I have already said a few times on this thread. New or not, it is not a club that has produced top juniors before. So that is a concern if your goals are this ambitious. If you look at all the top young players in the USA you will notice they are coming from 10 or less clubs and it isn't a coincidence. And your coach is a 2400 player (yes, that is what the record says) who doesn't seem to have high level professional playing or coaching experience based on the website, so that is a concern as well, and if you ever approach that level you will need to figure out a plan for what comes next.
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table tennis player develops most in the junior years, between 16-18 years of age. that’s where the magic happens, where true potential is shown. and exploited. if she/he can cause trouble in “open” category at this time that is a good sign that the player is developing in the right way. of course, there are exceptions, late bloomers, if you will, but are quite rare.
so a player at 20s is fully developed and all she/he needs is experience and tough matches. 😉
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Often it is earlier than 16-18. 13-15 is most commonly where big progress is seen as players grow into adult bodies and gain power and physicality to add onto the fundamentals they have been building for years at that point. That is part of why I stressed the importance of building the right fundamentals early, in my first post on this thread.
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he was always that good
he made the provincial team around 11 years old and by 14, he joined CNT B team, 15 he made the CNT A team, at 17 he won his first WTTTC gold medal.
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the dude is already 2500 in his head
he needs all the resources possible to even have a chance of catching up, the first step is to acknowledge he is far far behind and 2nd step is what I have said a few times already.
Staying put in his comfort zone won't get him far.
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that is correct
the fundamental phases for this kid is near finish
13~15 is match experience
and from 15 is to see if you would really become a somebody.
so that is why in Asia, we have our first "drop out" age of around 14 or 15 years old.
if you have no chance to even be a top 100 in your region, you should seek other paths
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