Search results

My assumption was that elo predictions are well documented and mathematically provable questions. I thought someone with knowledge would be able to answer definitively quite easily. But i still havent found a definitive authoratative answer. Just a lot of "trust me bro, i can win 50 matches easy"

Do you have a source that shows the 2% figure you claim? The other guy posted a graph and documentation, suggesting 5%. It's a lot easier to believe him than you because he is providing an actual documented source. 5% is still very low. But losing 1 in 20 matches is a world apart from losing...

But did you see the ratingscentral article and upset graph? It was suggesting a 5% upset chance

Yeah I always wondered why Carlsen's rating is only a bit higher than the next player

How to deal with the monotony and boredom of long multiball training? I have been doing almost exclusively multiball training sessions where I just try to loop opponents serve. I did some 3rd ball practice as well. But after hundreds of balls, it gets pretty monotonous and boring. How do you...

Good thing is you're trying to provide mathematics to provide an answer. So according to their model, a 200pt deficit would approximate a 5% chance of upset. A 100 pt deficit would approximate 20% chance of upset. Sounds reasonable, although slightly lower than I would have guessed.

https://www.aliexpress.us/item/3256808657738239.html?pdp_npi=4%40dis%21USD%21US%20%2455.64%21US%20%2444.51%21%21%2155.64%2144.51%21%402101e07217500246298134163e3eea%2112000046917942759%21sh%21US%211644340096%21X&spm=a2g0o.store_pc_allItems_or_groupList.new_all_items_2007523571238.1005008844052991...

Sorry, what I meant to say is: What is the win % for a 1600 with a 200 deficit (1800 opponent)? What is the win % for a 2200 with a 200 deficit (2400 opponent)?

Makes sense. So what would the win probability be for a 1600 player vs a 2200 player with a 200pt deficit

sure, I agree with your meaning. But that's why probabilities exist. The higher player can't play to his "normal" level every match. He chokes, he has bad matches, there is randomness, etc. So the real statistic answer is higher than 0%.

No. Another user suggested that the 200 pt deficit would suggest a 2% win rate for the lower player. The higher ranked player could win 50 matches in a row, is his suggestion. My personal estimate is 10-15% win probability. GPT suggested a 20% win probability. Qwen suggested a 9% win...

Yes, i imagine this happens much more than 2%

See, i actually appreciate this. Because it is an actual proven data. So i agree with you that 200 pts is a big difference. So youre right ML has a stranglehold over Dimitri. That is a very good data point. However, on the flip side, i can think of several other 3000+ players losing to much...

Where did I say this? I haven't played many players 400 pts better than me, so I don't have any sense of my odds. Obviously 400 pts is a huge deficit, so the odds wouldn't be high. I have played many players 200 pts above me, so I have a better sense. As I said, I think it would be in the...

Listen, we are not going to see eye to eye on this. That is fine. You are free to your opinion, that a 200 point difference is massive and the odds of winning are near 2%. Obviously, 200 points is a big step below, and I don't think they are likely to win with a 200 pts deficit. What is the...

I cited a 200 point difference and now suddenly you pulled 400 points out of nowhere? To answer your question, if I played a player 200 points below me, I don't think I could win 20 matches in a row. And yes, I regularly play 2100 players, which is 200 points above me and I do win here and...

What is your rating? I would love to watch you win 50 matches in a row against 50 -200 rated players. I would be very impressed if you pulled that off. I know I couldn't do that. I posted a few LLM answers to provide a data point. I don't know if they are totally correct. You literally said...

Qwen gives a different answer than GPT: Summary: System Divisor Win Prob for -200 Notes Chess (FIDE/ELO) 400 ~24% Steeper curve Table Tennis (USATT) 200 ~9.1% Sharper drop-off So, in USATT table tennis , a 200-point underdog has about a 9.1% chance of winning.

GPT says: In USATT (USA Table Tennis) ratings, the probability of winning a match is also based on a rating difference, but the scoring formula is slightly different from the traditional Elo system. ✅ Approximate Winning Probabilities (USATT): According to USATT guidelines and empirical...

Gemini says: Based on the Elo rating system, if a player has an Elo rating 200 points below his opponent, his mathematical probability of winning a match is approximately 24%. This is derived from the standard Elo formula where a 200-point difference corresponds to a 76% winning probability...